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I Do Take This Into Considderation
1.It makes more sense for PEIX to be NASDAQ compliant before they dilute further. Unless when they went through chapter11 they committed to buying back 100% in a certain time frame.
2.http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_P/threadview?m=tm&bn=26743&tid=251603&mid=251603&tof=3&rt=2&frt=2&off=1
Court Rejects Ethanol Challenge August 17
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444375104577595202007427534.html
Sept. 15th E15 National Role Out
regulations, which "cost" nothing, have a huge impact on the economy. The amount of new ethanol dollars this rule change would create is larger than the budget for the U.S. Treasury. It's also more than Mr. Obama has requested for the Social Security Administration, the Departments of Interior and Commerce, the Army Corps of Engineers or even the entire EPA itself. The total value of our nation's ethanol production is roughly the same as what Uncle Sam will spend on the Department of Justice in fiscal 2011.
+50% increase in the demand for ethanol
http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2010-03/EPA-Ruling-Could-Mean-a--50--Increase-in-Biofuel-Demand.aspx?storyid=18006
National E15 Role Out Sept. 15,2012
50% Demand Increase
Will Blow Up All the Bashers
Stock Price Upward Move Is Around
the Corner.
Pics of Milo & Cost Savings by Using It
There will be a Saving by running with Milo at $ 2,643,903.00 per Quarter)
Here Are Some Pictures Of It
https://www.google.com/search?q=sorghum&hl=en&prmd=imvnsu&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=IeUuUPHcBYT_ygHclYGQAQ&sqi=2&ved=0CDgQ_AUoAQ&biw=1158&bih=800
Milo 100 pound $13,70/100*56lbs= $7.6720 per bushel
Corn 100 pound $14,33/100*56lbs= $8.0248 per bushel
difference $0.3528 per bushel to PEIX if running Milohttp://www.fcelevelland.com/
2.2% less ethanol per bushel, but a saving of $ input at 4.40% with Milo
If produced with Capacity 40 million gallons in a quarter, there will be a saving by running with Milo at $ 2,643,903 in a quarter, and converted into profit per gallon by driving with Milo = $ 0.066 per gallon.
If, as has been said is imported Milo bought in a West Coast port, there probably is a saving on shipping costs
Corn Bushel Wieght Is
Corn, shelled 56 Lbs
Corn, ear 70 Lbs
http://www.unc.edu/~rowlett/units/scales/bushels.html
Milo Is Sold By 100 Lbs
Currently
Milo September 2012 $7.84 Old Crop
Milo December 2012 $7.37 New Crop
http://www.gccoop.com/
I Dont Know How Much Ethanol 100 Lbs Of
Milo Makes
825,000 Bushels Of Corn x 2.8 = 2,310,000 Gallons
3 Plants Capacity
Stockton 60 mln Gal per Year
Broadman 40 mln gal per Year
Magic Valley 60 mln Gal per Year
Total 160 mlm/12 months = 13.3 mln gal per month
They Slowed Production It Says In the Conf. Call
(Lets Say 30%) 4,444,444 Gallons
July
8.86 mln Gal per Month - 2.310 mln @ Reduced Price Corn
(Im Going to Say they Turned a Profit In July)
Aug. 15th Milo
They Can Make $$$ this Qaurter!
as of June 30th 165 Conracts x (5000)Bushels
they were Holding 825,000 Bushels Of Corn
as Of June 30th
With Slowing,Would that Have Lasted till
Aug. 15th When they Could Use Milo ?
the SEC10Q Corn Contracts Carried to Q3
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=8774029-7852-61464&type=sect&dcn=0001019687-12-002814
EPA Aproves Milo For Ethanol Aug.15
http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2012/aug/15/us-food-and-farm-sorghum-ethanol/
Nasdaq PEIX Market Stream
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/peix/stream
Institutional Ownership Increase 9.02%
New Positions: 11 6,551,248
Increased Positions: 19 8,266,572
Decreased Positions: 17 1,557,550
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/peix/ownership-summary
Ethanol Inventory Reaching Shortage Levels by Q3
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_P/threadview?m=tm&bn=26743&tid=250995&mid=250995&tof=2&frt=2
US. Ethanol Inventory Chart & West Coast Ethanol Inventory Chart
Both Charts Show Major Down Trend Since Early May
a Quote from Zacks Analyst Ian Gilson
"ethanol prices will increase as a shortage develops in the fall"
ANALYST NOTE ETHANOL LOOKING FOR BETTER SECOND HALF
http://scr.zacks.com/News/Press-Releases/Press-Release-Details/2012/PEIX---Pacific-Ethanol-looking-for-better-second-half/default.aspx
Recently Procured Alternative Feedstocks milo
http://seekingalpha.com/article/807401-pacific-ethanol-management-discusses-q2-2012-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single
Guidance,Analysts & Zacks Say Great Q3&Q4
Analysts are predicting a stronger second half of the year for ethanol companies — Pacific Ethanol included.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_P/threadview?m=tm&bn=26743&tid=250734&mid=250734&tof=1&frt=2
Neil M. Koehler - Chief Executive Officer, President and Director
We believe the actions that we have undertaken have improved our ability to benefit from our forecasted recovery in the market during the third and fourth quarters. We are focused on executing on objectives that will benefit the company and our shareholders in the long term. We look forward to keeping you updated on our progress.
Market Pulse for PEIX
http://finance.yahoo.com/marketpulse/PEIX
Lippert Heilshorn leading investor Getting Around
https://twitter.com/LHA_IR_PR
very lil down side judging by BIOF
-4 Estimate is Low Expectation
Good Luck to Longs!
More Likely
a Contract @ The Time Was $28,250.00 - $1,800.00 = $26,450.00
$10,000,000/$26,450.00 = 378 (5000 Bushel Contracts)
373 x 5000
= 1,890,359 Bushels @ March 31st Price of $5.65
Current $8 Bushel - $5.65
= $2.35 per Bushel Increase In Value
1,890,359 Bushels x $2.35
= $4,442,343.00 Unrealized Gain
(Depending On If They Added to or Used That Corn)
balances remaining on these contracts were
$1,678,000 and $9,186,000 as of March 31
5,000 Bushel Contract @ $1,800.00
$1,678,000 + $9,186,000 = $10,864,000
$10,864,000/$1,800.00 (5000 Bushel Contracts)
= 6,035 Contracts
Thats If Its All Corn
They May Be Holding Natural Gas Contracts,Which Have Gone Up by 1/3 Since then.
& Some Were Probably Un Paid Ethanol Contracts
(6,035 Contracts x 5000 Bushels Potentially)
= (30,175,000 Bushels)
The Price per Bushel On March 31,2012 Was =http://barchart.com/chart.php?sym=ZCU12&...
Guess What It Is Now ?
$8 per Bushel
Rating :
Unrealized Gains Three Months Ended March 31,
Type of Instrument Commodity contracts
The Company uses derivative instruments to lock in prices for certain amounts of corn and ethanol by entering into forward contracts for those commodities. These derivatives are not designated for special hedge accounting treatment. The changes in fair value of these contracts are recorded on the balance sheet and recognized immediately in cost of goods sold. The Company recognized gains of $134,000 and $28,000 as the change in the fair value of these contracts for the three months ended March 31, 2012 and 2011, respectively. The notional balances remaining on these contracts were $1,678,000 and $9,186,000 as of March 31, 2012 and December 31, 2011, respectively.2012
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=8610605-21156-48916&type=sect&dcn=0001019687-12-001720
Green Mountain stocks up inventory on demand bet
http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-08-01/industries/32977918_1_green-mountain-single-serve-coffee-market-keurig-brewers
GMCR Insider Buying
http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2012/08/10/a-flurry-of-insider-buying-at-gmcr/?mod=yahoobarrons
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/GMCR/2014249498x0xS909954-12-57/909954/909954-12-57.pdf
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/gmcr/insider-trades
JVA Inside Buying at the Begining of Q3,He Already Had the Inside Track then from GMCRs Ordering
http://biz.yahoo.com/t/90/6828.html
BIOF Hedging from BIOF 10K
Derivative Instruments and Hedging Activities
Derivatives are recognized on the balance sheet at their fair value and are included in the accompanying balance sheets as “derivative financial instruments”. On the date the derivative contract is entered into, the Company may designate the derivative as a hedge of a forecasted transaction or of the variability of cash flows to be received or paid related to a recognized asset or liability (“cash flow” hedge). Changes in the fair value of a derivative that is highly effective and that is designated and qualifies as a cash flow hedge are recorded in other comprehensive income, net of tax effect, until earnings are affected by the variability of cash flows (e.g., when periodic settlements on a variable rate asset or liability are recorded in earnings). Changes in the fair value of undesignated derivative instruments or derivatives that do not qualify for hedge accounting are recognized in current period operations.
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=8488367-208564-333703&type=sect&dcn=0001144204-12-015421
Your Correct BIOF Hedges Conf. Call (Intresting)
Might be Good New Coming from the Call
E15 Mid-September
the oil companies are not supplying Iowa with the gasoline blend stock that you have to blend with ethanol to create E15 during the summer months."
The gasoline blend stock for E10 is different than the blend stock that is required for E15, according to federal regulations. So oil companies are simply sending up the pipeline the blend stock for E10. "That blend stock is not suitable under federal law for blending with E15. It is in reality, but not under quirky federal regulations," says Shaw.
Mid-September is probably soonest E15 ethanol will be available in Iowa
http://farmprogress.com/story-e15-may-available-until-mid-september-0-60876
BIOF Does not Hedge
Read It In Thier 10K
Drought Talk Dead,Weather Pattern Change
Ethanol Co. Stocks Up Trend
AMRS
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMRS&p=D&st=2012-08-01&en=(today)&id=p39871575138
BIOF
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BIOF&p=D&st=2012-07-25&en=(today)&id=p16081256924
REX
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=REX&p=D&st=2012-07-27&en=(today)&id=p24267187820
PEIX
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PEIX&p=D&st=2012-07-16&en=(today)&id=p78603190027
GEVO
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GEVO&p=D&st=2012-08-02&en=(today)&id=p52402344861
GPRE
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GPRE&p=D&st=2012-07-27&en=(today)&id=p27555431548
Ethanol Stocks Starting to Run
GPRE,BIOF,REX,AMRS,GEVO
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_P/threadview?m=tm&bn=26743&tid=248980&mid=248980&tof=1&frt=2
BIOFs Accidental Hedge,With No Corn Hedging Policy
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=8608119-68799-69848&type=sect&dcn=0001144204-12-027734
Prepaid inventory from Q1
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=8610605-7647-48916&type=sect&dcn=0001019687-12-001720
ASSETS 2012 2011
(unaudited) *
Current Assets:
Cash and cash equivalents $ 4,981 $ 8,914
Accounts receivable, net (net of allowance for doubtful accounts of $26 and $24, respectively) 29,122 28,140
Inventories 14,437 16,131
Prepaid inventory 7,199 9,239
Other current assets 2,473 4,324
Total current assets 58,212 66,748
Property and equipment, net 157,610 159,617
Other Assets:
Intangible assets, net 4,227 4,458
Other assets 1,600 1,653
Total other assets 5,827 6,111
Total Assets** $ 221,649
Drought drives up price of ethanol
http://www.jsonline.com/business/drought-drives-up-price-of-ethanol-h166ocf-163285106.html
Selling Extra Ethanol Inventory Into
Price Spike
Selling Cheaper Ethanol Into Higher Price In June
Surplus Ethanol from Q1,Q2 Into Higher Prices
at the End Of June.
The Chart Says Yes!
Look at Decline In West Coast Ethanol Inventory
at the End Of June.
http://ycharts.com/indicators/west_coast_ending_stocks_of_fuel_ethanol
Corn Starts Tanking January Anticipating 2013 Crop
Just Sayen
Nice,I Like GPRE 28 Day Inventory
& Congressional Action Got Killed!
GPREs Hedge GPRE CEO Becker said
GPRE CEO Becker said he expects the company to be back in the black in the fourth quarter because its futures contracts are set at profitable levels.
Additionally, Becker said, 28 days' worth of ethanol is in inventory
http://www.omaha.com/article/20120802/MONEY/708029945/1697
Earnings Talk
Now This Is The Part That Gets Intresting,The Month Of June They Would Have had To Have Pre Bouhgt Corn Used Prior to Use @ Lower Prices
& Sold The Ethanol @ Higher Prices,Increasing Margins to Positive for
The Majority Of June.
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=ZKQ12&style=technical&template=&p=DO&d=M&sd=06%2F01%2F2012&ed=06%2F29%2F2012&size=M&log=0&t=BAR&v=2&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=06%2F29%2F2012#jump