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Someone else may know of a specific play to trade the dollar but I'm more interested in it because of the effect it'll have on commodities.
I don't play Forex but a high for the dollar would be good new for energy prices. So let's just say we get a high around 102-103 followed by a large pullback. IMO that would set up gold and oil to make the runs to the highs I've been taking about. Make sense?
They don't have intraday charts for the dollar.
It's a different ticker hold on a sec
So a break of 2.567 on Nat Gas will be the first signal a bottom is in.
We've been waiting on this low from Nat Gas for a while and as soon as it confirms a bottom you can bet it'll take off. Commodities don't bottom like equities so we could very well see a V bottom without too much though going into more consolidation.
If we do this this new high the next leg lower id gonna be a SOB, -$10 IMO.
The dollar is very close to confirming a move up to $102-$103 on the way.
Tech's curling up on Nat Gas
Thinking oil has started it's move lower, Around $48 before it heads back $53+
Oil could see $48 again before moving higher IMO.
Anyone think oil is moving lower here?
So what are you thinking?
Under $95 is a lock IMO. Even if we hit a new high I still see $92.
The first thing we need to do is get back over 2.565
RGSE could be putting in a bottom here
JNUG and NUGT are always good to play as well. Let me confirm a bottom first. Believe it of not we still haven't invalidated the 1170 number I talked about, even though it doesn't look like we'll hit it I can't just discount it because I don't think it'll happen. As soon as I see us putting in a bottom I'll make sure everyone knows.
I like MDW but it hasn't come back far enough. I want in between .38 and .35
I like it, we're set up here no doubt about it.
That doesn't mean we're gonna see 1189 that's just the bottom of my target box.
Gold is ready for a strong bounce, I have 1189 as the very bottom of my target area and after we bottom we should start a 3rd wave higher.
For those of you playing TVIX/UVXY we could start to move here anytime now.
If the dollar breaks 99.40 I'll be looking for new highs between 102-103
It's not about worry it's about money management. I just booked a $5k profit and still have 1/2 of my position. I can always buy back id I want to carry more shares for the next move higher.
Nat Gas is the the heart of my bottom targe6t box. If we get OML under 2.535 I'm make my final buy and put my position away for a while. IMO this is not the time to be selling.
NG spike down on inventory numbers but I'm buying
INUV over $3. Thinking I'm gonna have to sell at least 1/2. I'm not saying it's going down but I'm up over $2 a share and want to lock in some gains.
Nat Gas is GREEN, now let's see if it can hold it.
What ES does on this next test of the lower trendline of this triangle is very important. Once we see what happens there we'll have a much clearer picture of what's going on.
I'm working on my updates and will get them out as I finish them.
It's very possible we could start moving higher again but until I see where this retrace stops I can't be sure. Would like to see at least $51.13 but anywhere between $51.13 and $50.95 will be good enough for continued upside. The reason I want to see the retrace is because that move off the high had some momentum behind it and going long before we can confirm the bottom could be costly. I'm very happy I got out when I did but that doesn't mean we have a top in place. So I'll continue to watch and post a updates chart as soon as I know something.
You see the inverse H&S on /NG
Nat Gas numbers at 10:30
This morning at 8:30 we have more job numbers. This could be the news that gets us rolling to the downside.
$1206.4 signals a bottom is in place for Gold.
Gold looks like it may have bottomed as well.
For now I have to assume Nat Gas is going higher. It retraced exactly to the point I said would be most likely for a move higher.
Nat Gas, from this point forward every new low could be the bottom. That means we may make a new low of the one we have in place could be it. At this price level it could start to trend higher from just about anywhere so be on your toes.