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He's been sitting on this for just about 7 years now... As per him, its like a perpetual eternal LEAP that never expires.
yeah, retail investors like Bill Ackman would never take a flyer on two unprofitable companies struggling to gain market share sitting on the cusp of scotus decisions that could totally change the trajectory ... what was I thinking? ... lol ... who the heck knows either way, but I do try to consider all possibilities
GOVT totally going to use this as the facade to bury the outcome of them losing at SCOTUS... Whatever happens will all be in the name of creating more housing.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/25/why-houses-are-so-expensive-in-the-us.html
An appearance in the video of the prospective NEW FHFA Director, post Collins.
Should I hold the commons for another 20 years?
I'm trying to squeeze in another 4k shares in the coming week... but want a small dip from here first :S
I’m buying like a mutha #@%’er. 22,000 shrs but it’s taking a long time to fill. Fidelity makes you use limit orders with OTC.
I can deduce from the number of opinions released today that all members of SCOTUS must've liked cramming for their exams back in undergrad.
4 more weeks and 27 cases left to be opinioned.
33% chance today.
I say 80% chance June 2nd. Not 1st because they're still waking up from 5/31.
So are you asking for the GOVT to win right now? Because there are only two options... GOVT wins or Plaintiffs win.
A conversion of the JPS for Common Stocks to meet the CET1 ratio fast, as required for the release from Conservatorship, would increase the dilution of the existing shareholders to almost 97% and the target price drops to $7ps.
Who is the moron that keeps praising the plaintiffs and their allies Bradford, Pagliara, Howard, Rosner, ACG Analytics, etc?
A victory of the corrupt plaintiffs is devastating for the share price.
Yes, I meant there are a total of 29 cases remaining and that there are 6 possible weeks of opinions left... which leaves SCOTUS with an average of 5 opinions per week if they want to meet their quota.
So statistically speaking even if they throw in some curve balls from the jan/feb/march hearings... Probably 1st week of June? Latest 2nd week.
Opinion date I'm guessing 6/2. SCOTUS definitely too lazy to release on 6/1 since 5/31 was a holiday LOL.
29 cases to be decided and 6 weeks left... That averages to about 5 opinions per week. SCOTUS gotta step on it. Hopefully 1st week of June?
I predict 150m volume once SCOTUS releases (:
Nice to see green; however, meaningless to me without substantial volume, 15- 20M shares.
Recently a mortgage broker told me that what I was asking for was beyond the limits of Fannie Mae.
And then I told him I own Fannie Mae, don't tell me what they can and can't do.
I just picked up 5k shares.
You know what's funny? When FnF are fully recapitalized with more than 250B in cash. They can literally buy goldman (125B) and moelis (3.5B) and their cloned twins twice over...
Then they can rename them to Fannie Sachs and Freddie Moelis.
Let Gaby, Mazo and Glen know.
I hope everyone here understands that the Govt selling the warrants out in the open market results in ZERO additional capital for recapitalization right?
The capital required to exit conservatorship does NOT move even selling 100B of warrants.
The warrants are worth only what FnF will rebuy them for...
https://twitter.com/GabyHeffesse/status/1394337947076288512
While you're at costco please ship them a case of redbull so that they can move a lil faster.
They gotta at least release 4 opinions Monday!
They gotta at least release 4 opinions Monday!
Supposedly based on the current numbers, FMCC will be able to exit conservatorship before FNMA.
But I think they should both still track pretty similarly...
I use to believe the whole premise of how the govt warrants are worth 100B like pagliara said...
But that is FALSE. If the govt warrants are worth 100B then by simple math of how the commons own ~20% then our share would be 25B. Divide that by ~2B shares and we have 12.50 a share.
Then if we believe KT and his valuation of FnF being around 265B... Then incoming capital will be putting in more money than what they are getting out...
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The govt warrants actually near worthless is my stance but I stand by that they may exchange all of the warrants for a reduction for some of the 29B return of tax credit to FnF. It just creates a situation for less money exchanging hands so its clean. They can also spin it to the media of how they profitted...
Just listened / watched the video.
1st. I hate the concept that pags still thinks the gov't earned / diserves the warrant shares.
That is the biggest farce and until that litigation is filed and resolved nothing gets really done done.
You can add some commons for some Rogaine. (:
i don't really understand this reference or what it means, but i have held preferred through restructurings before and come out okay. took a haircut to par in the past... but this one is a bit different because i dont think the debt will be taking a haircut and i believe the senior preferred broke the law... and i believe the supreme court and from here on out the courts will back shareholder rights.. just may take a while to get there and the government has time to screw around.. will be interesting to see how quickly they get this show on the road
Is my wish going to come true??!?!?!?!?
Have some dry powder sitting on the side... I'm hoping that a sub 2 opportunity presents itself one more time before the curtains close... If not, I'm still content with current position.
Have some dry powder sitting on the side... I'm hoping that a sub 2 opportunity presents itself one more time before the curtains close... If not, I'm still content with current position.
No Hodl for life?
Roth sell order- 10%@10, 20%@20, 30%@30, 40%@40
My limit sell orders are in place now in the Roth IRA account.
I'm going to argue that not ALL new capital coming in will be on equal footing. The earliest capital coming in will want to prevent future capital coming from having the same share percentage.
They will want to be rewarded for being first in line and taking on more risk. It is less risky if you are the last 10B needed for full exit.
Billy Ackman will probably be... probably right.
your valuation estimates are much higher than mine; and i think your reasoning is flawed, but good luck with your dreams coming true.
That can happen but it would be a court facilitated event and FnF would have to go through the motions of chapter 7 or 11 bankruptcy. Based upon the current sentiment and environment the chances of that occurring are incredibly low. Normally it occurs because an entity is trying to discharge a certain debt... what would they be discharging? The govt's portion? Haha.
There are basically like 20 active members on this board... fear mongering doesn't really work.
Eliminate existing shares and sell new securities as IPO
Can't happen??? Government just stole what??? 10s of Billions from the GSEs, the government will wipe out existing OTC equities and bye bye.
Will gladly load the truck at .30 cents
Warrants for commons is music to my ears.
Another opinion day this thursday.
The warrants are worth the most only if FnF go via retained earnings all the way.
Otherwise they are pretty worthless. Holding onto the warrants only invites litigation. Therefore warrants = liability and not an asset.
If you believe in the massive dilution hypothesis then the warrants will be diluted to oblivion anyway. New capital comes in after and on top of the commons and warrants.
Much more plausible I would say that the warrants will be sold back to FnF for some arbitrary amount by reducing the 29B return after SCOTUS.
Another point if we go by Bradford's thinking... the GOVT was milking the FnF to pay for the lawsuits but no longer is and now no longer wants to pay for the attorney fees since they are allowing them to retain earnings... There would be absoutely no FnF subsidizing this new takings law suit. Would the GOVT want to self pay for another decade of ligitation?
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warrants will not be exercised without a huge taking lawsuit
These lawsuits wouldn't undo the exercise of the warrants. Old commons would only be entitled to receive a compensation - probably peanuts compared to the $80 billion in profits resulting from the exercise of the warrants.
They will sell the warrants back to FnF for 5B(sp?), the same exact amount that was set aside to settle litigation as stated in the letter agreement.
Instead of money changing hands, it will probably just be deducted from the 29B return of capital after SCOTUS.
The 100B value of the warrants is a lie touted by hedgefunds.
If there were to be no capital raise then sure the full warrants are worth what they say!
It's very possible that they negotiate or partially offset the warrants for any monetary judgment against the defendants.
Regardless, the warrants are near worthless or a lot less than what the numbers are being thrown around out there.
Historically, the USG was exercising the warrants and selling off the shares to recoup the bailout investment. Though they did not stop once they were repaid... they sold a bit more for a net positive then they paraded around saying they made a profit off of this. Once they made an arbitrary profit they resold the warrants back for a nominal amount.
I would argue that the warrants being worth upwards of 100B is the same pie in the sky 200 PPS of commons. If we go with our boy bradford's valuation of 19.1B annual income x 11.9 PE multiple that leaves us with 227B. If the govt warrants are worth 100B and we reduce common share to $0 and new capital to 127B.
Would new capital inject 239B into FnF for their share that would be worth 127B?
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I think at this point, SCOTUS will most likely rule favorably with us. The 29B return as a deferred tax asset is becoming more increasingly likely.
I think the treasury will most likely resell the warrants back for some amount of the 29B return. Price will be between 0-29B, worse case being 29B.
Just a food for thought.
It is a very clean solution.
They can parade with triumph.
That is incorrect. The takings being argued in the CFC was not in directly in regards to the issuance of warrants that occurred in 2008. It was the nws which is effectively an illegal exaction.
To my knowledge, litigation is not ripe because the warrants have not been exercised so a takings has not yet occured.
Takings is being litigated in another court. Takings is not on the agenda for scotus.
FnF Market Cap Valuation = 507B after capital raise.
No way, I say early JUNE!
I expect a rights offering for current commons.
If SCOTUS rules favorably for plaintiffs and regardless of what happens after that... when the capital raise commences, I see absolutely no reason why there would not be a rights offering that is equivalent to what FnF are offering outside private capital coming in. In fact we should technically be getting first right of refusal.
I mean does it really matter where the new capital is coming in from?
Freddie goes first!
At this point... might as well just hold to the bitter end.
Most or completely?
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After more then 10 years of holding I am completely out of FNMA shares this morning.
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WOW. GLAD I KEPT MOST OF MY FNMA SHARES.
Then comes the bigger question... Take profit or keep holding?