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Gleno - yup, UP we go
Got in Long SSO at the market open ... SPX 1480 by tomorrow, imho :)
Gleno RE: volatile moves
Besides the much debated 'fact' that the markets are manipulated/controlled to shake out both bulls and bears, couple reasons I can think of are 'low volume' and 'directionless market'.
Until we break above recent highs or retest/probe towards the lows, neither the bulls nor bears will give in. Add to that low volume august summer trading days and moves in both direction are exarceberated.
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P.S - friday's before long weekends/holidays
have almost always been UP ... Bernanke speaks friday 10 a.m. and whatever he says 'the market will interpret' that as good news and go up :)
SPX 1480+ possible ... let's see.
EOM Ramp up
SPX back to 1480-1500 range by friday, possible :)
SPX bounce target tomorrow
Foot in mouth prediction :)
1. 1425 (0.5 retrace of 1370.6 low and 1479.4 high)
2. 1412 (0.618 retrace)
1425 lines up better with an uptrend channel that will be formed (high -> connecting 8/15 high to 8/24 high and low connecting 8/16 low to 1425 :)
Thanks wonder - mesg edited :)
Needed this hard down day
Of course, got help from the Moon, Bradley, R3 and FOMC :)
We should bounce in the a.m. keeping this uptrend still intact, imho!!
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Q's & QID 47 battle
How many times have both crossed that line in the past month - both ways? :)
Full Moon/R3/FOMC Min
Full moon trading days have been characterized by extremes in the past (buying or selling) ... throw in the recent R3's and FOMC minutes and you have the makings of a very interesting afternoon ahead.
Stay tuned/glued folks :)
AJ, imho back then it was the 'little guys' who were foolishly betting away their life savings in the nasdaq euphoria. The FED did not drop Billions every day/week to save the little guy.
When the BIG FISH are in trouble, the FED always acts :)
Agree NM - setting up nicely
for pullback into tues/wed for EOM/401K/pre-labor day run up towards the end of week.
Need one hard down day to wipe out last week's excess and the uptrend can continue :)
Denmo, P&F chart price objective
Did they catch/forecast correctly the downside price objective of Q's to 44.5 and SPX to 1370 when the downside break took place couple of weeks ago?
I don't understand P&F .... I remember someone posting a QID P&F chart when it was in the 40-42 range 4 weeks ago when Q's were in the 49-50 range and the price objective was 32 :)
QID shot up to 52 high on 8/16.
Grind up for sure
But did I underestimate the (narrow) 'range' :)
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Dan - narrow range grind up
today and monday .... action will be tuesday-friday next week with EOM/401K/Pre-labor day stuff.
Might as well shutdown and head to the lake/beach/golf course/nap :)
Strong Data == No FED Rate cut?
Strong durable and housing numbers than expected ... shouldn't the market be concerned of the possibility of no FED action on 9/18. Rate cut already priced in?
Well, the day is still early :)
Nasdaq TrinQ > 3?
Is that correct ... Now around 2.5 BIG BE Minator Sell signal :)
http://www.marketswing.com/realtime.htm
Quiet AHs?
No bailouts/buyouts ... Futures flying today :)
I'm sure we'll wake up to a GAP UP or DOWN ... that seems to be the norm.
Durable orders @ 8:30 and then
New home sales @ 10.00
Foot RE: ABC
I could be wrong but i'm thinking today top was B ... C is yet to come and it could be below your current C on the chart.
Let's see ...
Spooky - good call
NAS 2500 proved too tough a resistance ... added to my SDS position @ SPX 1461. Now let's see how well your 800-1000 pt DOW drop plays out in the next 4 days :)
SPX move tomorrow
SPX pause last couple days ... either consolidation or topping. Sitting right in the middle (1440 breakdown or 1455 breakup).
Tech propped by RIMM (3-1 split)
and APPL ... that's why sticking to SPX short where damage is less if I'm wrong :)
Gleno ... consolidation
The more SPX hangs/consolidates in the 1440-1450 area, it could be setting up for another leg up. If we do not break below 1440 tomorrow, I'll have to exit this SPX short :)
Break 1455 and will go long ... let's see.
SPX 1455 200dma kiss of death
PS' Cliff dive can begin now :)
NM, my SPX target is 1406-11
for this retrace - last wednesday/thursday close area. That fits well with Q's getting down to 45.5 area
Short S&P via SDS and Sept SPY puts from yesterday.
Thanks Gleno .. playing with SPX for now
That's run up the most from it's 1370 low last thursday and was acting the weakest today. Part retrace of the rally from thursday low is in the cards :)
Added to SDS; Bought Sept SPY puts
SHORT S&P via SDS
In at 57.65 ... weakness should continue till tomorrow, imho.
PS - trend is your friend
Short term trend (2-4 wks) is UP ... not saying we will not go down. In fact, looking to short monday morning but we should find support much higher than 1370 to ensure counter-trend move UP is on.
1Best 1997 vs. 2007
Interesting analysis/comparison on the climactic selling. I'm sure a 'retest' is on everyone's mind and though like u say the SPX and DOW did not retest it's 10/28/1997 lows, the Nasdaq and NAS100 did go lower on 12/24/1997 and then again on 1/12/1998.
Would you be able shed light or comment on this divergence?
Gut vs Brain
Gut said we close at or near highs when Q's backed down to 45.65 area but brain said that the some of worst/bad decisions are made after few successful trades. So, listened to the brain and stayed flat. Well, there's always next week :)
last sentence in note below to Dan ... Good weekend all!!
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Doubt it Guys
I think it will be a bumpy ride next 2-3 wks but counter-trend bull move is on and we should be higher from here 3 weeks out.
I will be playing 'very light' and see how high this counter trend move takes us. Short term SPX low @ 1370 is in, imho.
Dan ... were you one of those handy out those candies at the GAP UP :)
guessing you cashed out at the open - nope, I did not buy any candy. Staying flat ... made lotsa dough short from 8/8 and digesting now. Will stay flat and see where we close today.
I think we close at the highs but not finding guts to go long given the weekend coming.
Holy Cow! Glad sold all short positions
30 mins before the close yesterday ... was planning on going long at the open but now just staying flat and watching the EXPLOSION UP - hey, u cannot win them all.
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Sold QID/DXD/SDS/Q puts - out to cash
Sold 1/3 in the afternoon near DOW -300 and then seeing the last 45 mins recovery ... sold all.
Given today's DOJI candle, Bulls should take charge now :)
North - HPQ bounce
could take Q's up to 45.44 but that would be it, I think.
Good luck!
Everyone got their seat belts on
Blink twice and the DOW goes round trip from -200 to -300 and back :)
Dan, that's why I hang out here
learning from the 'old wise experienced' wonderful folks on this board :)
Been watching the markets only since 1997, so I have lots of learning to do.
Would u buy an apple under $100?
At this rate, it will be on firesale very soon - AAPL 200dma is around 102
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Circuit Breaker Trading Halts
If NM's prognocis comes true, will we see a 1250 DOW drop anytime in a day? Never seen a trading halt in my lifetime :)
http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader/help/circuitbreaker.stm