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If you had told me we would be drifting between 1.20 and 1.40 after the last CC (it was the worst one I've heard from them), I would have told you that you were crazy.
So, all things considered, I think we're in a good spot.
We still need that TSA order, but that hasn't changed. I don't buy the idea that the TSA won't buy from Implant or that they won't give us as big of an order as we can handle, but I do not know when they will place the order. It could be tomorrow or it could be next summer. You just never know with them.
The one thing I have struggled with on the TSA's side is why they would place large orders when they are going to implement stricter requirements next year?
I know we meet the requirements, but why would they buy equipment that is going to be obsolete in a year? I know they can buy them until that deadline, but why would they do that?
Basically, I'm not a fan of the DHS as they can say one thing and then do another. Deadlines don't mean a whole lot to them as they seem to do whatever they want.
If it happens on low volume, it is most likely the MMs trying to generate action.
They don't make any money when no one buys and sells, so they will try to start these false runs on low volume. They don't care which way it goes because they make money either way.
It's a stupid topic that is brought up anytime there is a down move.
I posted the links to show everyone how the daily data is highly inflated with the hope that we can move on from bringing it up on a daily basis.
If it holds to the EOD, you made a good call.
It doesn't change anything regarding the short numbers being useless. That comes from the SEC, not me.
I still don't put a lot of stock in these low volume moves as they as simply churning the shares. This happened a few weeks ago when we ran to 1.45 and then fell to 1.20.
We go up and we go down.
Call me when the "big event" that you called for occurs.
Like I told you a couple of weeks ago, it can go up on small volume just as fast as it goes down. I don't pay attention to the day to day stuff.
We hit 1.28 three times yesterday...
I believe this is for the research grants.
Not the IDIQ
THEY AREN'T REALLY SHORT SALES!!!
The premise that your basing your assumptions on is false.
If they aren't really short sales, then there was nothing that could decrease. Did you read the letter from the SEC?
Yesterdays action was most likely MMs trading between themselves. When we only have 2K in volume in the first couple of hours, they have to do it to make a market. When they do that, they aren't having to sell shares they do not own. Therefore, there is no short interest for the day.
It doesn't matter. I wouldn't put a lot of stock into that information. They haven't slowed down, because there isn't a lot of shorting going on here.
It's really hard to short a stock that sits a ~$1 consistently.
You're all over the map with your posts... I think most here question your motives.
The information I provided on short sales in good and explains how most of the "short" trades aren't really short at all.
A free country? What does that have to do with anything. I'm trying to share information.
Go over the data for the last 30 days and add it up. Then go ahead and try to reconcile that with the fact that the monthly data hardly moved.
I'd also suggest reading this from the SEC:
https://www.sec.gov/comments/sr-finra-2009-064/finra2009064-1.pdf
The day to day stuff isn't real.
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/IMSC/short-sales
That is all that matters.
Do you read the posts here?
Everyone constantly discusses the fact that nothing is "in the bag". We all have doubts and we express them constantly.
Why you choose to ignore that is beyond me.
Care to expand on this?
It doesn't mean anything.
They could fill that order in ~2 months (if they get all of it).
I doubt they would be required to fill any order immediately.
Hey Ted,
I didn't receive a response to that question. Though I suspect it would be the same type of response we got during the call. From my experience, they aren't going to say anything privately (through email) that they haven't already said publicly (through a CC, 10Q, 10K, 8K).
It still doesn't make sense to me. They never would have been able to fill an order in September.
Also, their margin is ~25%. I think someone here said it was closer to 50%, but the 10K says otherwise.
They make these predictions all the time.
It's pretty easy to tell whether to believe this or not.
They aren't very well respected.
Close to zero.
Most companies (the size you'd hope would acquire us) aren't going to care who PR's the sales as long as they are the one who gets to book the revenue.
My interpretation of this is that they have to get the IDIQ (opened ended contract) and then receive orders on that contract that total 20 million.
I read that as saying the first order doesn't have to be worth 20 million. Only that they have to have 20 million in aggregate... I know some here read it differently.
I don't think this is very significant in the sense that it doesn't tell us one way or another what the totality of orders will be, but it is worth knowing.
How do you guys read it?
I think you've lost your "this is what the pps will do" privileges....
Didn't you say the pps was going below a dollar if we didn't get an order by the end of September?
I'm not attacking you, but I do believe it is useful to admit when you've been wrong in the past. I avoid these type of guesses for that very reason.
The 6-7 weeks comment is due to the fact that they have to host a Q1 CC at some point during that time frame.
The quartered ended on 9/1/14. They would need to report by 11/15 (6-7 weeks after the last call).
Nvm, I didn't see this and assumed that he was selling to pay for additional taxes at the 10/15 deadline.
There is no requirement that governments buy from that list.
It is set up as a way for all countries to know that the unit has passed a set of standard requirements.
France, for example, would still require STAC Certification before they would be a buyer.
"We have the best pipeline I've seen since I've been here"...
Every CC.
It is what it is, but I find it comical at times. It's like he forgets everything he said on the prior call.
Luckily, I don't think a government order will be very dependent on Dr. Jones.
Note this rise on low volume.
Remember it the next time some of you guys feel like complaining that it is falling on the same type of volume. It will help you realize how manipulated things are.
It will absolutely result in sales.
If you don't consider the last few years a down market, I don't know what to tell you.
There is a public awareness aspect that is going on right now, but I don't think that will dramatically impact the market because it is already structured in such a way that most developed countries account for these threats.
We will see increased demand from countries who have flights into the US, but that won't make up a big percentage of overall orders.
We'll benefit from the US government entering a new buying cycle. As well as Europe and Canada.
Yeah, but you'd think we would have seen more orders like the South Korea order, if that were the case. They knew what they wanted and had everything ready to go once they were able to buy. Before we got approval, it sounded like there would be more than two of those instances, but who knows for sure.
Overall, I think it's simply a downtime in the market right now (no one is making an major sales right now), but it should pick up as countries are forced to replace older units. It worked out in our favor because we were able to go through the approval process during a time when no major orders were going to occur, one way or another.
I'm definitely in the "i'll believe it when I see it camp". That's not to say that I do not believe that we will get a sizable order, but I don't put a ton of stock in what Glenn has to say (his "let me be blunt, we anticipate an order by the end of September" comment tells me he isn't really clued in on what is going on...which makes sense when you think about the sector they are in).
All of that being said, I am convinced that we will get a sizable order because there are way too many positives going on right now for it not to happen. That point of view won't change until I see our competition get orders without us.... Which I think is next to impossible.
Long story short, I'm positive on our future, but I expect/need to see something happen soon (not days like some of these "longs" who will complain when their arbitrary deadlines pass , but within a month or two).
Me, too.
It is more out of curiosity than anything else.
We might as well know as much as we can about the market we are aiming to dominate.
I try to avoid that MB, but I did look at his post. It was pretty informative.
However, I don't see where he references the 4th developer?
It looks like they were denied, but I'd still be curious to know who the 4th developer is (or why it is an error)...If anyone knows who it is?
Who is the 4th developer?
Currently, it is Implant, Morpho, and Smith Detection, correct?
But you're not really holding anyone responsible...
I agree that they have been terrible with their timelines and that they need to start producing. The first point has had a direct impact on the second as there is no way to make it in this business without TSA checkpoint qualification.
But, i'm certainly not holding them accountable by stating that (all I would be doing is posting anonymously on an internet MB) . Furthermore, it makes zero sense for me to say that 4-5 times a day everyday (while being the only thing I talk about) because it is counter productive to my investment.
If you don't believe in the people who run the company, how can you invest in it? You can't. If I tried to argue against that, I would be insulting the people I'm trying to convince. If I did that, then I would expect a lot of push back.
Their goal is to have a 50% margin, but they aren't there, yet.
"Gross margin for the year ended June 30, 2014 was $2,054,000 or 24.0% of revenues as compared with $3,429,000 or 28.5% of revenues for the comparable prior year period."
Not a big deal, because it will increase if they get a large order, but I think it's important to know these type of things.
I'm going to shoot him an email.
I'll let you guys know what he has to say.
Inventory Question
Someone asked about this on the call yesterday, but the answer they gave doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
So, we ended 2013 with $2,145,000 of total inventory (raw materials, WIP, and ending). For 2014 we ended with a total inventory of 2,806,000.
Assuming a 25% profit margin (correct me if I'm wrong, but that seems about right), that means they are capable of handling an order of $3,507,500.
How is this the "largest production run in company history"? Wouldn't the production for the India order be larger? Maybe they will be adding to it, but it didn't sound like it last night when they were asked about this.
On the last CC, Glenn was pretty blunt (he actually said "let me be blunt") when he said they expected an order by the end of September. If that was actually the case, why didn't they produce more?
I'm an Implant supporter, but this is really bothering me.
I'm not saying it isn't possible, but I've been in this awhile and they have never had a notable deal that they didn't PR.
The stock is holding up well today and it has been oversold, so it may actually end up in the green today.
It still comes down to the TSA. Their only real mistake is that they should have flipped yesterdays CC with the one that had for Q3.
Yes, they have financing through March of next year.
If we get a deal from the TSA, it is likely that the financing deal will be extended.
I'm going to be okay.
Have fun trying to manipulate people for personal financial gain.
Personally, I sleep better without feeling the need to do that.