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"a few gap opens last week." Meaning?
Looks like we are headed to 2696 at a minimum. Let's see what happens.
By my count the 100 ma has now crossed below the 200 ma. Based on today's close we should see 2630 this week, which is also where the 50 ma sits. A close above that should bring 2700 into the picture. My thinking is we go higher. Staying close to the trigger to enter short on qqq
The pundits (Jim Rogers, doug nolan et. al) were calling for a severe recession and a monstrous crash in the market in the fall of 2018. Now they have pushed it to the fall of 2019. Hmmm
From a technical view, a close at or above 2604 tomorrow will pave the way to test the resistance at 2631. The rally is getting long in the tooth and the volume has been going down the past week. Time to short is at hand.
Vix could easily go below 15 on an intraday basis.
A rejection at the 50 ma would be a normal reaction after this prolonged bounce. Should it hold 2551 then another attempt will be made to breach thru it. If we breach thru 50 ma on this attempt then a move to 2700 is possible, where the 200 ma and 100 ma are now almost identical.
50 ma 2635,
100 ma 2753
200 ma 2741
The 100 ma should cross below 200 this month.
The 50% and 62 %retracement levels of the recent down move sit at about 2576 and 2631 respectively.
Vix: Looks like its soon about to take off to above 25
Could go to 2635
Volume is lacking today. But a move to the 2640 resistance area is possible by end of next week. Lot of resistance between 2640 - 2750
economy adding 312K jobs, means next rate hike just increased in probability
I would agree with this assessment
"Been busy with family, sorry did not post this crazy week." The little guy does seems like a handful. I've got kids much older (doesn't get any better).
My analysis says we breakthrough the 2520 resistance with 2570 target being a good possibility this week (X-mas, New Year ...oversold condition). I've been wrong this bull market except for XIV. Good news is I'm in 70 cash and have orders to execute at 2570 and 2630 (if it gets this far). If we head down to 2350 later in January, I don't see a comeback to 2520. We keep heading down to 2K.
SPX on track to close negative for the year and for the first time in many years, the twenty five year, yearly chart is showing a divergence.
Are Financial Analysts/Media Playing Games? Short answer "Yes".
Everyone is playing games, fudging the #'s, making stuff up and doing whatever it takes to keep everyone calm (Life is good). Government is in bed with the corporations, OPEC ....
what is the brach zone for the upside move
The FED statement was very transparent. Market could rally knowing that only two rate hikes are planed next year.
the santa rally is gaining some momentum and only 7 trading days left. The odds of going to 2530 before 2760 don't look good.
I think 2760 is very do able. Even if on an intra basis.
235000 seems reasonable although 20K will follow soon.
If by changeover you mean the new session of congress. That is a long time to rally and a rally that long could lead to new highs, which a lot of people are not expecting.
futures right now are pointing to 2800. If they stay like this, then shorting the open might not be a bad idea. There is heavy resistance between 2793 and 2815.
Stock Markets closed Dec. 5th. Only four trading days next week. News from summit seems positive, will cause a rally next week.
for you to get that at 32, the mkt would have to make a new high. Thereby contradicting the thinking of most at this point. I will soon be buying spxu, to hold till the latter half of may.
I have not entered any shorts but am getting the itch. So far patience has paid off.
This is beginning to look like a W formation with a minimum upside potential to the 2810 level. If we are to rally into
Dec. 7. The upside potential might be even highr.
So there goes our crash scenario and the predictions of a market crash next year. It up up and .....
with 45 minutes, a close above 2680 is not in the cards. There is a 30 % chance for a break above that level.
I agree with the upward bias the next couple of weeks. A 5% up move is entirely possible given the oversold conditions. 2750 would be a nice place to enter shorts.
Agree with you.
2850-2900. I don't see that happening next week. End of november seems more likely for that range.
todays close indicates we may have that rally that was projected by your system, lasting into next friday
Do you see spx moving to the 2800 area next week.
That is almost a 50% decline from the top in spx in one year. That has never happened b4
Highly unlikely that the 21 dma will get over 2800 by Monday (11-12) or even 11-19). I guess that mean short any strength.
seems like your rally objective of 2815 has been reached at lot sooner than the week of Nov.19th. Are we still projecting at high of 2810-2815
We are almost at the first line of major resistance. The volume has been very low on this move back up in the last three days, including today so far. Volume, reminds me of XIV, just days before it collapsed.
First major resistance is around 2810. We could see that hit by end of next week. Market is counting on a republican victory.
I've got a feeling that repub's will eek out a victory (just barely). The nation is tired of Dem's and their wishy washy ways and yes that includes admitting more and more refugees, etc. Sorry for going of topic (couldn't help it)
Exactly my strategy. Thanks for weighing in and confirming.
Anyone still expecting new highs by TG day?
A major support level was broken this week.