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The weekly chart is very overbought, seems unsustainable, even in such an ultra rigged environment as this. The pullbacks we've been getting for last few months have only been 1-2 days then we're back at ATH's. A short term downtrend should be coming.
I had the same puts as you, just sold them.
I barely trade this anymore because it's so manipulated and unpredictable. In October I did 2 trades vs normally 25 per month. I make more money on options with less losing trades on stocks like AMZN, TSLA, BABA etc. This is pure garbage now.
They're clearly just taking it the opposite direction most people are betting on at the moment. Scam.
She's going down.
I just bought weekly QQQ puts.
I was thinking the same thing, this is astonishing.
I just bought a put position, Nov 17th $255.00P for $0.98. I'm not betting on any sizable drop but a pullback to $255 is realistic. We're still in a bull market though for the foreseeable future.
vix is a scam dude pay it no attenion. I never look at vix.
I think it's because this is not all real buyers. Certainly some institutional money is involved, but the fed is involved in asset price manipulation. They have to since our financial system is a fraud and would collapse if they didn't. The stock market is a major support beam of the entire financial system, if it crashes, that would cause major ramifications all over the place in our economic system. Being the central bank, one would assume they would be keen on actively manipulating things to make sure everything works out how they want it. Effectively controlling things, not that they control every little thing that takes place but by broadly injecting the market, analogous to injecting a drug addict with a powerful drug.
Meh. Clearly today was heavily manipulated vs real dip buying, but whatever. I'm not even mad. I'm conditioned to accept it.
Out of all puts for a loss =/ Wrong trade.
It's just overbought.
Sold weekly puts for a loss yesterday but still holding these.
Lowest volume this year. Buyers drying up. I'm holding my put positions overnight and see how we finish the week.
It's just manipulation holding this up at this point.
This isn't the top of this move? =/
Bought October 27th $256.00P for $1.43, swing trade.
Calling a short term top here. Won't go above yesterdays high which was $255.51 for the rest of this week.
Not above yesterdays high yet, will continue to hold puts. Expecting a short term downtrend to begin now into the next few days.
Wasn't expecting that.
Bought October 20th $256.00P for $0.98. Daytrade.
End of day analysis: On the daily still above the 4ema. Today did not touch yesterdays low. End of day, Green hammer with big volume on the 10 minute chart.
What happens next: undetermined/unknown.
My status going into tomorrow: NetNeutral.
On the daily, I watch the 4ema and the 10sma together.
When one crosses the other, it's a signal to either go long or short. Right now SPY has been riding above the 4ema for the past week, if it closes above it again today, I think we keep going higher. When SPY has been above the 4ema for a while and then SPY drops and the 4ema crosses below the 10sma, it's a signal to go short.
For daytrading, I use On Balance volume alot. I use a 5 day 15 minute period candle chart and watch for divergences combined with support resistance lines, and place trades accordingly.
Yeah after this consolidation on the daily starting on October 6th, for all we know this move up still isn't over. It could rip higher tomorrow. Will sit out and watch for a clear signal.
Told you dude. Years of experience with SPY is paying off. I lost $0 dollars on puts this week. This first 2 weeks of October breakout mirrors OCT 2015 and Feb 2015 and Feb 2017. It's about applying lessons of the past. Every time this happened before I've bought puts and lost money. But not this time. It feels good.
This move starting October 2nd shows money pouring into the market even at this high valuation, and that we are in a strong bull market cycle. This year mirrors 2013. 2014 we kept going higher at a slower pace. Then in 2015 that leg up stalled. August 2015 there was a correction. 2016 started off looking like the beginning of a bear market cycle, but that didn't come to fruition. Now in 2017, the bull market continues. Long live the bulls.
Closing calls here @ $0.33. $255 strong resistance here. Looking at puts now. Will wait to see what happens in this area first.
What is "TL". If you have a good indicator, tell us about it and how to use it. Don't be cryptic.
Strong close. Big green day tomorrow.
We'll see. Won't bankrupt me either way. 3 trading days to go up $0.50 cents. I don't think this is the top yet. I think we go over $255 tomorrow. I don't want to hold these through Friday.
Bought calls here for tomorrow, October 13th $255C @ $0.34. Small position.
I'm done responding to this conversation or talking about Trump at all. I will just focus on trading. Other people can do what they want. I will remain silent.
So here's my opinion then. Let's go there. He's been saying the same thing every week for the past 6 months, if either leader was going to do something they would have done it. They're both all talk and just want to be seen as so tough and mighty. No ones going to do anything. 2 months ago "we'll see we happens" last month "we'll see what happens", this month "we'll see what happens". We're not going to war. I've met people like that in real life, talk a big game but can't back it up. Either one of them. Kim keeps testing nukes and getting closer to having a weapon that can threaten us and what has Trump done? nothing. Fired a missile over japan, no one does nothing. NK threatens to attack us, does nothing. Trump threatens to "destroy" NK, does nothing.
what are you guys going to do then short calls, full margin short SPY plus VXX calls + long GLD every week while SPY continues to rally through the rest of the year? This is a seasonally weak time of the year yet we're printing big green candles everyday. The market is strong right now. Yesterday tech stocks breaking out like crazy NFLX/AMZN/GOOGL massive bullish engulfing candles. This is after all the "declarations of war".
The one and only time in this entire presidency Trump unilaterally affected the market was when the health care bill failed for the first time in late March and then that Monday SPY gapped down big, then immediately rallied right back. I remember that day because I scalped weekly puts at the open and got out with a small gain almost seconds before it reversed and filled the gap.
On March 1st SPY gapped up big after Trumps speech to a joint session of congress, but basically every March 1st there is a big rally so trump can't take full credit for that.
So for day to day trading, Trump means nothing. Not even worth mentioning in my opinion. Mastering TA yields far more profitable results. Which is what I thought this board was for. But if that what excites you then make trump's non-stop drama the center of your trading plan. I have nothing else to say about it.
"TL already said how Monday will be."
Can you elaborate?
No hard feelings dude, but look. We're traders and we're here to make money. When I come here I don't care about Rex Tillerson or Donald Trump or anyone. I want to know what I should be seeing on the chart, and what trades I need to be focused on so that I continue to make money. All this political stuff is a distraction. I have opinions too. But that is not what this website, this board is for. I talk about all that stuff too, but lets keep it off here. It's distracting. The board has lost focus, I don't find many posts helpful at all to my trading. As a moderator, I'm the one who should be speaking up. We need to focus and improve this board for the good of all of us. So we can succeed as traders.
I want to see more talk about charting and indicators and all other related aspects of trading SPY, and a reduction of other kinds of posts. Good conversation is fine but many just post rants that don't help anyone. This isn't really a general chatroom, it's all about trading. Maybe I can start something like a weekly interview with the regular posters here about how they trade, how they read charts and any helpful info and tips they have for the board. I'm open to ideas of how to improve this place.
Carry on.
Moderator Notice: This is not a Donald Trump discussion board. Someone would come here and think no regular posters here know anything about technical analysis. I see one chart with indicators posted per week with 100 posts talking about Trumps latest move. Yes the president creates a storm of daily news coverage but it is not impacting SPY relative to the amount of political discussion that takes place on this board. Post your trades, post some charts, talk about indicators and how you use them. "SPY technical analysis" is the board title. I realize emotions are high and people want to rant, but this is not the place. I have to crackdown or the board will descend into a mess of political arguments.
Keep the discussion focused on Trading SPY. Take the politics elsewhere.
It will stay above $253 for at least the next 4 trading days. That would be until next Thursday.
Because I see the larger game being played here. Like I said we've seen this movie before and know how it ends.