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it's posted on another site which does not require a subscription. I'll try to find the link and post it.
JFF7
It was the Raymond James house.
JFF7
AGT / APG
Problem is that there are some big seller(s) of Apollo. Anytime the bid builds, someone dumps a large chunk of shares. Anytime the ASK queue gets weak, someone quickly replenishes it.
It would be nice to find out who the motivated seller is. Maybe we could monitor how many more shares they have to unload before the stock can move up. Is this just warrant holders shorting?
JFF7
SGR, WTM and Lakeshore all hit 52 week highs today. A run on juniors is in the works. Looking forward to next week.
JFF7
NUTSAboutgolf - nickel favs
Nuts, what's your faavorite nickel plays these days? Are you buying CML?
JFF7
AGT
I was a little surprised at the two production figures of 5.1gm/tonne and 92.5% recovery. I thought they would be a little higher but then they are still in the first months of production so this could improve over time.
At this rate of production, they should have no trouble making payments to the bankers. Getting by the two big quarterly ones in 2009 is the test.
JFF7
CL001 / Kipp
have you guys seen the Northern Miner article on AGT?
It is subscription only so I haven't seen it.
JFF7
This is just a stunt by WEX to try to drive their share price up so they can issue some shares at a decent price to try and raise the capital they need to get things going again.
When they say limited production, they really mean limited. Only sales they are making are probably from scraping up the remaining moly residuals at the mill.
JFF7
OK but were they already regularly booking 50 % more than minimums?
If they were and more then this really doesn't add much value to the share price. It would just raise the floor that is already too low.
JFF7
you should have stayed and said Rubicon a monnth ago. It would have been appreciated more then. LOL
JFF7
A number of gold juniors were running today. Rubicon, Centamin, OGC.
All on no news.
Could the gold juniors be warming up?
JFF7
from your lips to god's ear.
JFF7
Yes I saw your post ont he thother board about the techincals indicating a break out either direction is pending. I agree. But even if it breaks north I think .50-55 cents is the limit at this point.
JFF7
Hedges always scare away a certain portion of investors. Debt doesn't help either. Even with these two, AGT is a great story. I think most of the people who have heard of it have bought their fill. We need new buyers from increased coverage and some earnings results that demonstarte the great story we know is here.
JFF7
overloaded already. The low volumes show to me that peole already in aren't selling and a lack of new buyers to drive up the price. This one needs more exposure. It takes months to et that sort of exposure. More good results (coming) and a few analysts to pick up the stock and to report on it. Even then institutions have to pick up their share before they let it move higher.
JFF7
CGA.TO -4,55 % to 1.47
Hoping for a retrace to support at 1.30 to get in.
JFF7
AGT results
Well if you got, flant it!
They will conduct the more extensive drilling this year in order to estimate the resources.
Good on them. Wow, 13 ounces per ton.
JFF7
SGR.V San Gold
Very informative interview by Rick Boulay (director of SGR). I am surprised so much information was forthcoming. Usually these guys are more tight lipped. Rumours eslewhere that there will be a series of releases this week. Keep your eye on SGR this week.
http://www.selfdirectedinvestor.com/
JFF7
CL001 - BNN
Sorry Chen but I don't know if the uS version has it as well. A friend has the Cdn version of TD Waterhouse and he is the one who told me that it now gives him free BNN streaming (for the last few months).
If you have the uS TD Waterhouse account, you should ask them for the BNN streaming since they provide it to their Cdn customers.
I use a Slingbox to get my streaming for it.
JFF7
Cartonet - BNN
I think BNN is a great source of information so I tried hard to find a free source for this.
You can get access over the Internet if you have a membership in Gold GlobalInvestor (about 10 dollars a month last I looked) or if you have TD Waterhuose account, I believe they now give you free BNN access.
I did find free BNN streaming at one point that was only a minute or two delayed (probably a technical issue more than a policy issue) at one point but it did not last long. It seems they set up free strweaming at different internet TV sites every once in a while, maybe as a promotional item.
JFF7
I think we are at the start of a 2-4 week pullback in the price gold. AGT may trade differently but not far from the POG.
JFF7
AGT - small share lot buys
I don't know Matt as I am not an expert on how market makers work. I know that AMEX is quite a bit different than some of the other exchanges though. I think the small share lots are fairly common on the AMEX exchange transactions.
10 Bagger could probably answer your question.
JFF7
US dollar bouncing back so all commodities priced in US dollars are pulling back, including gold, base metals and oil.
Question is how far back will it bounce? 82 cents USD index?
JFF7
Yes 2.5 million short shares on AGT. But that will only add to the fuel when they are forced to cover.
If you can rollover your OGC into more AGT shares, your going to be one very wealthy guy.
Opportunities of a lifetime this year.
Good luck to all.
JFF7
OGC.to +4% 1.30 Cdn
OGC just keeps on rolling. ! Wahoo!
Originally the thought was load up on AGT and then sell and buy OGC. Turns out, it's theother way around. Run up on OGC and then load up on AGT. Who'd a thunk?
JFF7
The volume has picked up but so has the available number of shares on the ASK. I think the shares for sale are coming from frustrated traders that bought on the hope of a pop on the news but didn't immediately get one.
The other source of selling I think is form holders that want to lighten up on their positions because they are worried about a general market sell off that will drag down all stocks.
JFF7
AGT / APG.TO
Well there certainly is no shortage of shares from frustrated holders. The company delivers on it's promise and the share price drops. I think there is a lot of holders that bought for a quick flip and are now taking their profits because of the lack of movement.
I bought another 10,000 today because I believe once these disgruntled sellers get rid of their shares, any new buyers will easily move the price substantially higher. Once the market starts to understand the implications of the lower strip ratio and learns about the other positive developments to come shortly, new buyers will drive the price higher. Analysts should be nosing a round soon too so they can start coverage now that they are in commercial production.
JFF7
Well for it to start moving up this afternoon it will have to move up through a lot of available shares. There is a lot of shares available by a few sellers.
Not sure who the seller is but the volumes are very low today so it may take a while.
JFF7
It does not look like we are going to run anywhere fast. We need more buyers for that. Everyone that knows about AGT already has had a chance to get their fill at these prices.
This first pour and commercial production news is great becuase it confirms that management has delievered on what they said they would do. It also takes some of the risk out of this investment. They pour 3000 ounces in the last week of May. Extend that out and they are alsready pouring at a rate of 12000 ounces in a month or 140,000 ounces a year. Now obviously these are very rough numbers and need to be confirmed by a few months of production and we need to hear the grammes per tonne they are pulling from the resource.
The stock price could stay low like OGC did for quite a while. I remmeber buying OGC for 50 cents and wondering how it could remain so cheap for so long. Now it's over a buck. What changed over that time? The point is that the price of AGT will go up, it's just a matter of time and finding the right circumstances that will prompt new buyers to find it and bid it up. The value is certainly there.
Looking forward to confirmation of the quality of the grade they are mining, the number of ounces they are producing monthly, the additional crushing circuit next month, results of Grey Fox drillng (43-101?), additional land purchases, moving up the production rate to 1800 in September, and having analysts start to pick up covergae of AGT.
JFF7
AGT - Lower strip ratio
The strip ratio is almost half of what they had projected. 4 to 1 instead of 7.25 to 1. That speaks to the quality of the resource if I understand it correctly.
JFF7
Apollo Gold Announces First Gold Pour and Declares Commercial Production 06/02 09:00 AM
DENVER--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Apollo Gold Corporation (AGT:$0.47,00$0.01,002.17%) (“Apollo,†or “weâ€) wishes to update the market respecting the progress and development at its Black Fox mine and, in particular, is pleased to announce that the first gold bars produced at Black Fox were poured during the last week of May 2009.
R. David Russell, President and CEO of Apollo, stated: “On May 1, 2009, we announced that we would finalize the commissioning of the new ball mill and progressively increase ore throughput during the month with a goal of attaining a rate of 1,500 tonnes per day by the end of the month. We also announced at that time that the first gold pour was scheduled by month end. I am therefore happy to announce that, as at May 31, 2009, we had poured approximately 3,300 ounces of gold dore, which contained approximately 3,000 ounces of gold. Now that we have entered commercial production, I would like to take this opportunity to thank all of our employees at Black Fox for their dedication and professional approach in executing this project on schedule and within budget.â€
During the month of May the Black Fox mill averaged the following throughput rates: 800 tonnes per day during the first week of May, 1,400 tonnes per day during the second week of May and just over 1,500 tonnes per day for the rest of the month. In June, the mill is scheduled to operate in a steady state at a throughput rate of 1,500 tonnes per day. Having achieved our primary objective of processing 1,500 tonnes per day, we now await the completion of the new crushing circuit to be completed by an independent contractor and handed over to Apollo during the first part of July 2009. Once the new crushing circuit has been commissioned, we expect to increase ore throughput towards our objective of 1,800 tonnes per day by late September 2009.
The Black Fox open pit mine is now mining waste and ore at approximately 14,000 tonnes per day and the year-to-date strip ratio has averaged 4.0:1 compared to the planned ratio for 2009 of 7.25:1.
ECU.TO
I bought some ECU warrants at .26 cents after your heads up on ECU and reading up on it. Not a big position but eevry little bit helps.
Thanks for bring it to the boards attention.
JFF7
SGR.v - "Perhaps they are just better geologists than mining engineers."
That's definitely part of it too. They have an engineer (Ginn) running the company and he does what he likes best - explore and punching holes in the ground. Contributing to the problem (meaning a lack of change towards a production company) is that the Chairman of the Board (Wynn) also happens to own the drilling company that provides all the drilling services the company purchases.
This one will be taken over some day so that it can be mined by a real mining company. The more gold resources they can prove up, the more premium they will get.
JFF7
SGR.v/SGRCF - you hit the nail on the head. Lots of gold and very little production. Still not cashflow positive after pouring their first gold almost three years ago in August 06. John Embrys recently panned them on BNN. I think his negative predisposition on them has more to do with previous experinces and probably is fairly accurate based on their demonstarted lack of ability to get the gold out of the deep Rice Lake mine on a profitable basis.
They have essentially abandoned their SG-1 mine, delayed the development of their Cartwright mine and now there is talk about moving their resources out of the deep Rice Lake mine into the Hinge Zone. I would not be surprised if you see them pretty much abandon the deep mine to work on the Hinge zone.
And now they have a drill working a second Hinge about .5 KM away and getting similar drill results (although none have been published yet). The story of this company is very much about the new surface high grade Hinge zone(s).
They lost about 8 million in the first qtr. Funds were getting low but now that they have convinced most of the warants holders to execute their warrants, they should have enough of a war chest (maybe up to 40 million) to last for another year or so (or however long it take to get to cashflow positive).
This is one of those stories of where they will succeed in spite of themselves.
JFF7
BMC.TO
If you bought now, would you be entitled to the shares and warrants of the company they sold out to?
JFF7
SGR.V - up +.21 to $2.25 10.20% gain on the day
On BNN just before the market close, they mentioned a report out from National Bank that identified 6 gold juniors that would make good takeover targets. They were all on the TSE: ARZ, FRG, KXL, ANO, ANV, and SGR.
SGR was up 10% today.
JFF7
AGT struggling
I have a about 25 Gold companies on my gold watch list. Only 4 of them are red. AGT is one of these. My theory of why it is slow is that first qtr results are due this week and everyone knows it will be ugly so they are waiting to buy on the dip.
I added a little more today based on the rising POG.
JFF7
AGT Recap - from Asamanthinketh on Yahoo.
Well worth the read when you get into it. Again, this is from Asamanthinketh (not by me).
JFF7
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_A/threadview?m=tm&bn=575&tid=37770&mid=37770&tof=8&frt=2
I had the opportunity to speak directly to David Russell, Mel Williams, Dick Nannah, Tim Smith, and Marlene Matsuoka as well as meeting for the first time Danny Gravelle and Ryan Lougheed. I was also very pleased to meet Chief David Babin of the First Nation, and Maurice J. Kistabish, who acted as head negotiator for Wahgoshig. I left with two distinct and positive feelings. One was that Apollo has assembled a team of professional people who respect each other and work well as a cohesive unit. Two was the impression that everyone on this team believes that Apollo Gold is destined to become a substantial player in the industry and that they are doing everything possible to insure the foundation is built correctly to allow for growth for years to come.
I got the opportunity to have extended conversations with both Mel Williams and Dick Nannah. Mel Williams knows finance and I believe that we will see more clearly, as time goes along, that he has done an exceptional job of negotiating deals for the money to proceed with Black Fox. Do I wish we could have accomplished everything to date and not diluted my position with additional shares being issued? Absolutely! But I also acknowledge that I am far happier to own a smaller portion of a real miner that is now in production, than to own a larger portion of hope and promise. Do I wish we could have received the financing without hedging any of our gold? Absolutely! But again, I must acknowledge that losing the upside potential on 250,000 oz at $876 is a small price to pay for now having an operational mine and mill.
With current negotiations still in play for an additional land package, I could never get anyone to say what the Grey Fox expectation is, based on the drill results. But there was a palpable exuberance in the voices of each man in the room that suggests to me that Grey Fox will very easily offset the effects of the Black Fox ounces hedged for downside price protection. It was actually exciting to see in the eyes and hear in the voice, that each man who knows the undisclosed details has a pleasant surprise that they can hardly wait to share.
Over the past three years, I have come to trust this team. It is my belief that very soon we will be told just why the cards needed to be played so close to the vest for so long. Do I have concrete evidence of the details? No. Do I have irrefutable evidence as to why I should trust the judgment of this management team? No. So why is it that I have made the choice to commit time, travel, and especially dollars to my investment in Apollo Gold? For me, it is because over the years I have seen this team evolve into something that is more than just the sum of its parts. I am confident that each member truly believes in the project. I am confident that when this is all said and done, Apollo Gold is going to be one of those opportunities that people will look back on and refer to as life changing in a positive way.
I am also confident that Apollo Gold has a corporate conscience in dealing with all of the people who will live with the decisions made to take gold from the earth. Talking with Chief David Babin, I heard a man who believes that he is part of something that is going to be a benefit to his people in Canada. Talking to Dick Nannah, I heard a man who has real concern for the long term good of the people of the various ejidos where Huizopa will be built. And even that “will be built” is not just hope on my part. I believe that Dick Nannah believes Huizopa is going to be developed, and he wants to be sure that those who live there will see their lives made better by the presence of one or more Apollo Gold mines in their community.
I listened to Ryan Lougheed as he told about his team at Black Fox. These are men that he has been watching out for since it was the Exall Glimmer mine. There is loyalty flowing in the veins of Ryan and his men. It is apparent that Ryan believes that the amount of gold in the veins beneath this patch of dirt outside of Matheson is worth all he has done to keep his team involved for the eventual payoff.
I have, on several occasions over the years, written or called management to encourage them to increase the amount and frequency of promotion of this stock. I believe that we are finally at the point, in the development of Apollo Gold, that promotion will become a priority. The decisions made so far have favored getting the jobs done to get Apollo into full production at Black Fox rather than concentrating on speculation and promotion before the fact. As much as I wanted to see the share price move up on exciting news, I believe that we are now positioned to see it climb steadily on the realization that the first gold pour is exactly that, the first, and that those pours will be continuing over the next ten to twenty years. I believe that the hedge will be offset with new reserves, and the price of gold will reflect the US government’s unrestrained creation of dollars and the inflation it brings on. When the price per share exceeds a dollar, many new institutional investors will consider Apollo Gold an eligible investment. I expect that the second dollar will come far easier than this first one has.
I believe that we are now at a turning point for Apollo Gold. Montana Tunnels is, for the time being, a part of our past. Tim Smith and Crew were praised by management for making MTMI into a producing mine again and thereby creating the cash flow that carried the Company till Black Fox could take over. As of the end of April, MTMI is now on care and maintenance, after an orderly shutdown procedure that will allow the mill to be used again by whoever eventually develops M Pit.
Black Fox Mine and Black Fox Mill are now operational. This was a phenomenal accomplishment on the part of Tim, Ryan, and their crew.
The new ball mill is now on line and day one of its full operation resulted in 1530 tonnes of ore being processed. Additonally, Tim described a quarter million dollar device that allows the fines to be screened out before going into the ball mill. When I asked him how much of the ore arrived to the mill as fines, he said about 30%. That is effectively 30% that can go to the recovery tanks with little or no milling. This new device will be in place by July of this year. In my calculations, 1530 + 30% = 1989 tonnes per day. I believe that we will therefore be processing our 2000 tonnes per day by July. Tim Smith has set his goal to start the 60 day steady state testing for July and if he is able to accomplish this, we will be fully commissioned at 2000 tonnes per day by September of this year. As the market starts to grasp all of these facts and figures, I see the PPS rising.
BTW: All daily production guidelines that Tim gave were for 16 hour days. This allows a full 8 hour shift each day to perform routine maintenance of the mill. One more example of building a long term project, destined for success, in my opinion.
In the early days and weeks of getting the mill up and running, low grade ore was used so as not to waste any high grade. Gold is loading on the carbon as I write. Apollo will be pouring gold in May, this very month. Does this mean Apollo will show a profit starting this month? Maybe not. But what it does mean is that we have engaged the engine that will drive this money making machine. Black Fox is no longer just a dream. Ore is being mined and shipped to the Mill, and gold is being stripped from that ore. All of this is occurring with an operation that is fully owned by the shareholders of Apollo Gold. This will make others want to be shareholders and an increase in demand for shares, and I am convinced will have a positive effect on the share price.
We have a great story to tell and I believe that Management is now committed to getting that story out to the potential market. Three weeks ago, I believe the team was in Toronto talking to Institutional Investors. Last week, before the AGM, Dave and Danny were in Atlanta. Next will be Las Vegas, and then Dave and Mel will be traveling throughout Europe and telling the Apollo story.
I really thought we would have already seen our share price pass $1 by now and I must say that I was disappointed to realize that the price per share of AGT was just pennies above where it had been when I went the AGM in May of 2007. The facts are thought, that the world has changed in many ways over the past two years. Most of the market did not believe Apollo would ever get financed and ever be the that ended up digging and milling the ore and producing the gold that is in the ground at Black Fox. Those of us who have accumulated positions when the general market did not believe, will be the best rewarded; but that is only fair, as we took the greatest risk in buying before Black Fox was financed, built, and in production. Next will be those who buy two shares for a dollar and then one share for a dollar. I believe there will come a point in time when Apollo Gold will pay out an annual dividend that exceeds what many here today have paid for their shares, if we don’t get bought out first. I do not expect dividends until the loan is paid in full. When this is complete and if gold should be above $1200 per ounce, I do expect to see a dividend. We have now built a cash generator. There has been a lot of money and effort spent to date. The machine works and the product is being created at this moment. I asked Dick Nannah if Mel wrote the check tomorrow, where would Dick spend it? He said on drilling Grey Fox because of how it can increase our reserves and could be brought into production with no new mill needed. I asked Dave Russell if Black Fox would go underground before Grey Fox could be brought on line and he said yes and that it would. I asked if Management believed that Grey Fox and Huizopa could be developed out of the profits from Black Fox without further borrowing, and they said that was the plan.
Random notes from the Meeting:
An Eagle Crusher has been installed at the mine site to crush ore to 6 inches or less so that the contract haulers can haul over the road and not destroy their truck bodies.
Proceeds of the $70 million. So far about $62 million has been committed. All must be used for Black Fox and none can be used for Huizopa or other projects. But could be used in drilling out Grey Fox due to using the same mill equiptment and manpower.
I believe it would be great if Dave or Mel could prepare a “plain English” statement for the website that deals with the accounting results of the hedge being in or out of the money as we go along. For those who are well informed, the paper loss on the hedge should not be an issue, but for the less knowledgeable who only see the headline number, it would be good to defuse any unnecessary concerns and show that from a cash flow standpoint we are going to be able to meet all obligations with the dollars generated by Black Fox.
First pour in May with May 18 being the date that came to the top. There are a number of dignitaries, analysts, and news writers that will be on site to tour the mill and mine area. All must be invited and travel coordinated.
MTMI care and maintenance cost is apx $100 thousand per month split 50/50 with our JV partner.
Don’t hold me to this number, but I believe I heard that there are about 6300 acres that came with the Stock Mill (now the Black Fox Mill) and that contained the Stock Mine that has exploration potential also. As they say, best place to look for gold is near a gold mine.
80% of the Phase 1 open pit stripping is complete now at Black Fox.
Cash cost estimated at $450 to $500 per ounce for the first few months at Black Fox.
Black Fox Underground is planned to be paid for with income from open pit operation.
Diamond Hill mine and mill in Montana is still an asset with value and might make a good project for someone looking for a small operation. Montana Tunnels mill and mine has a significant gold and zinc in the fully permitted M pit and could be a viable operation when zinc rises to the $.80 to $1.00 range again. As a shareholder I have expressed my hope that Apollo Gold will sell both of these assets, pay off debt, and start fresh with the Fox sisters of Canada and the potential Huizopa in Mexico. Tim assured us that the mill was shut down in an orderly way that has preserved it for a smooth startup later on. Our joint venture partner has first refusal on MTMI.
In summary, nothing earth shattering came out of the AGM. Quite simply I returned home from this meeting, and the additional time spent in conversation with key people, with a calm peace of mind that Apollo Gold has the machine running, the clutch engaged, and that we are moving forward and gaining speed and momentum every day. I expect to see regular announcements hitting the news from this point forward. In particular, I expect that when the Grey Fox cards are shown, it will prove to be a winning hand. There is just too much sparkle in the eyes of all who discuss it for me to think anything less. Is this enough proof to justify my enthusiasm? Maybe not. Bluff is a legitimate strategy in poker. I simply do not think Dave Russell is bluffing. I am all in and betting we have a winner in Apollo Gold.
AGT - where do we go from here
I think the macro picture is more important than the specifics of AGT at this point. If the markets roll over, everything will initially get taken down, even gold stocks.
This may present a better buying opportunity.
Gold stocks and AGT will recover after the initial downdraft. At best, if AGT comes out with good news during the initial downdraft, I think AGT briefly spikes up or holds while others fall.
After the intial downdraft, gold prices will rise and gold stocks as well. AGT should do very well if any of their good news has come out already.
On the other hand, if we remain in this controlled environment, and the markets continue up or flat, AGT share price should hold and then gain nicely as the positive news flows out of AGT.
I personally can't tell how much longer the market will keep going up. I was assuming that it would turn and go south anytime now but a third possibility is that some may be satisfied just to have the market stay relatively flat for the next while and allow more bad news on the marco level to play out and be absorbed by the market. While this goes on, we work our way through all the issues outstanding.
I am mainly in gold juniors and gold majors indirectly through HGU and a few other natural resource / commodity stocks (most are now sold). I have some hedges in place. If the market starts to look like it will stay flat, I will increase my trading activity.
JFF7
CL001 - AGT
I think Kipp said he can't make the AGM meeting. At least last time he posted.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=37501033
JFF7