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I've also been seeing crazy numbers of shares on both bid and ask for both brav and another stock I own, and this is on Scottrade, not Etrade.
Outstanding analysis, ajdiamonds.
Given all the varied and crazy things I've seen said on these boards, I find the story told by Nick to be very believable. Sad, but true.
If all of that is true, then secrecy will be necessary until sales in retail stores are proven and strong. It would be best if people on the boards don't call stores. We should depend on people simply reporting if they see it themselves in their local stores.
Put all the pieces and emails and statements and tweets together, and I find it much more believable that Nick is telling the truth than that he's lying.
My guess on the major media announcement is some kind of national advertising campaign, or new social media promotion.
Website upgrade is great to see. I like that they have it prominently displayed at the top that they're over 95% made in the USA. I think that's a major distinguishing factor for them, in addition to the wide selection.
The new OnlyLeggings.com employs a new shopping cart architecture that provides a robust custom design environment.
Look above and you will see nicks forecast of end of year revenue. It's says over 23 million and this does not enclude stementense or healthenrich or Europe that has been ordered last Mont that will almost double this year revenue. We are talking about over 40 million revenue and that is a low ball estimate.
I'm a day late in responding to this, but I couldn't agree more with this post, moras.
Bid-sitting is the way to go to stop any games. In fact, I did this on Wednesday, not really intending to get more shares, just trying to keep the bid up, the spread small, and the games low.
I started with a bid at 30 around 10am to get it up out of the 20s. When someone outbid me I upped to 32 and then added another order at 33. I got nibbles throughout the day, but not much, until around 2:30pm, when someone suddenly took out all my 33s and 32s. I was actually disappointed a bit that it didn't last the full day, but at least I got a good price, and locked up another 2M shares.
Looks like Thursday didn't have as much support. Hoping some of you can fill the void on Friday.
5.6 million last quarter and looking to double or more next quarter.
That's interesting, but it also means that they know the max this can get to is 1.5 Billion, which is not great, but not bad either. If they keep doing $5 Million in revenue each quarter, that would be .0133 worth of revenue per share on the year at 1.5 Billion shares, meaning the stock price should go up over 300% from here just to get to a Price/Sales of 1.0.
With fast growth, we'll get P/S of 5 or more, which would be better. With shares staying under 400M, we'll do 4 times better than that.
So in the absolute all-goes-bad WORST case, we should go up 300% from here. Best case, about 10,000%, just running some basic P/S calculations.
I would re-phrase that to "the stock is just going through the after-affects of toxic financing from 4 years ago/previous management", to make it clear that they aren't in need of financing today.
Because the 10,000 was bought at the ask, and the previous sale was at the bid, and the spread was huge.
I'm trying to help close that spread with some bids in low 30s. Interestingly, nobody's biting, making me wonder about that early .0026, whether that was just someone trying to scare, or just a single scared investor. I don't think there are many scared investors left.
Did you mean "booming"?
There's a big difference between "bombing" and "booming".
Nobody can really know when the chill will be taken off. It could be a day, a week, a month, or many months before it's off. I'm long and hoping for sooner rather than later, but realistically, it's not under control of anyone involved in MDIN.
I think you're just hearing wishful thinking from investors.
You're missing an "al" in "basicallycotton.com" in your article.
Other than that, awesome article!
Based on the 10 day chart, this looks like it should break .02 sometime early tomorrow.
Then expect a quick rise to the high .02s from there.
MM paint job games....if you have L2.....u will see these small trades of 5000 shares to drop the price.
Where are you getting the info on float?
Float was at 238.9M.
The statement said 33M were bought back and are in the treasury.
Another 66M "are in the process of being reissued to the treasury". What does that mean?
Does that mean 99M bought back, and in various stages of getting into the treasury?
Would that put the float at 238.9M - 99M = 140M ?
I have a question about these contracts with retailers like Walmart and Walgreens and CVS.
How much revenue does MDIN get from the initial contract and sending to the stores, and how much do they get when the product is sold? Do they only get revenue when they ship to the store, then have to return revenue if there are returns of unsold product, or do they get a portion up front and a portion as sales are made?
If the former, you'd expect a lot of revenue up-front, but then less later on as they have to wait for stock to sell out before shipping more and getting more revenue. If the latter, then we should be in good shape for sustained and growing revenues. Anyone know how it works?
Thanks.
Yes, you're right, but most of the restricted shares have been with the CEO, and the rest with other officers, and given that the CEO once had 200M, and now there can only be about 100M restricted left, he must have somehow "sold back" or forfeited most of his own shares, and I imagine he wants to keep some of them for the future price rise.
I'm guessing they had plenty of cash flow and were getting frustrated that they couldn't use more of it to buyback on the open market, so they turned to making deals to pay the officers some amount around market prices to "forfeit" their shares. Just guessing that that's how it went down.
So, I just don't think they'll be able to get rid of many more of the restricted shares that way. The owners will want to keep the rest for the future price rise.
In addition to worrying about float getting too low for much volume to happen, I'm also worried about outstanding shares getting so low that individual investors go over 5%. If you buy 10M shares and then outstanding goes below 200M, you're suddenly over 5% and have to report it, right? People want to know where that line will be. If the line is moving too fast and unpredictably, people will stop buying at a point lower than they otherwise would, to make sure they don't go over 5%.
If your last figures are close and if the revenue is 5 million what would the pps be worth
Yup, I"m also waiting on share structure, but I'm too impatient to wait.
So I tried to dig through reports and tweets and figure out the history and piece it together. Here's what I found:
09/30/2012 quarterly report: 635.6 M outstanding (retroactively 238.9M float)
12/17/2012 cancelled 133.3M restricted shares (reducing to 502.3M)
12/31/2012 quarterly report: 502.3M outstanding, 238.9M float
02/27/2013 cancelled 100M & authorized 100M buyback, bringing us to:
02/28/2013 402.3M outstanding, (as reported on this board)
March 2013: shares being repurchased as rules allow. Based on tweets, a lot were likely repurchased during the March 20th to 25th dip in PPS.
03/26/2013 tweet of authorization of 100M more share buyback. This probably means the first 100M is getting close to being used up. Let's guess around 60-90M.
03/26/2013 tweet of a deal to cancel another 60M restricted shares
This would bring the outstanding shares to 342.3M minus any repurchased already. Based on above guess of bought back, this means about 250-280M outstanding right now. Float would be around 150M-180M. These are guesses.
I doubt they'll be able to complete the extra 100M buyback, as that would bring float down to around 40M. Folks on this board, collectively, probably have way more than that. I'm guessing that over the next few weeks/months, float will bottom out around 120M-140M, outstanding at 220M - 240M. All just guesses!!
Anyone else have other guesses or info I missed?
I feel I should introduce myself and explain that that was me buying via Etrade yesterday and today. Someone else on Etrade is selling and I've been grabbing most of his shares. So, 2 different people, so rest assured that it's not something fishy.
I've been reading this board for about a month, since I took an initial stake. After more DD the last few days I'm convinced that this is legit so I've upped my stake. Seems nobody is hitting the bid, so I've had to hit the ask but I'm about tapped out for the moment.
Anyway, it's good to be joining y'all. Good luck!
Thanks for the WOL order number, squeak. They've been harder to come by.
That means 5072 orders in the last 95 and a half days, or 53 orders per day average in that time. So, we can expect almost 5000 WOL orders in Q1 (about 1/10 of OL) and close to 200k in revenue from WOL.
I agree. At these dollar volumes, it could easily just be an individual, perhaps even one who is long, and who thinks then next big move is down.
I just wished the PR had said 237% instead of 250%.
Now everyone's repeating 250%.
Nabbs, you something else ..... ROTFLMFAO
Thanks for the weekly order numbers, Fill.
It's great to see the growth in order number rates.
I'm just hoping that order number turns out to be a better indicator of revenues than Alexa reach/pageviews/rank.
Up until now, order number growth and Alexa reach growth have been in synch, but in Q1, they've diverged. By Alexa #s, WOL is up about 23% in Q1 over Q4, and OL is only up about 9%. This projects to only about 1.4 million in Q1 revs, while order numbers are projecting to over $2M.
I'm hoping it means that there are a lot more repeat customers, so the order numbers go up while the reach stays the same, since repeat customers shouldn't raise the "reach", and shouldn't need as many page views.
I'm hoping that's the cause, instead of the possibility that a larger % of order numbers aren't resulting in completed orders.
Anyone else have thoughts on the reason for the discrepency?
Company believes that fiscal year 2013 could see the same kind of growth rate (250%) as 2012!
Pandora, great job on that PDF. Lots of great charts.
A couple things: I'd have liked to see corrected numbers from what was sent in the PR about 250% revenue growth in 2012. It was actually 237%.
Also, this part could have been worded more clearly:
Q4 marked the 12 of 14 straight quarters of revenue growth for the Company.
Please don't misquote me, SalesVP.
I never said I thought 1.0 was appropriate P/S for BRAV.
I said 1.0 was appropriate for low-growth average retail, which BRAV is clearly NOT.
I said that since BRAV is high growth, 2 is appropriate while investors are still gaining confidence in the financials, and 3 is appropriate after that.
Beezerr reminded me of the higher margins for BRAV than typical retail, so I agreed that even higher multiples of 4 or 5 or higher could be appropriate, if it can maintain high margins and growth at the same time, while improving investor confidence in the financial statements.
Exactly right, Fill.
That's why I have no fears of "short-term" (read 1 year) exponential growth, meaning tripling again in 2013. They do seem to be carrying a lot of inventory on their balance sheet, so it seems like they're using that warehouse well.
But tripling again in 2014 (exponential)? Possible, and it would be awesome, but you'd start to see the strain on operations.
I'd settle for for adding another, say $7 million to sales each year (strong arithmetic growth), for a long time, while maintaining margins & quality, which would be another .01 Rev/share, and perhaps another 3 to 5 cents per share onto the stock price each year. ... if you can call that "settling".
But it seems like some here are expecting long-term exponential growth.
That might be possible with software, but there are real logistical limitations when you're talking about leggings. With software, there's no real cost in whipping off more copies. With leggings, the faster the orders, the more manufacturers/suppliers you need, and you need to make sure they make good quality at a reasonable cost.
If growth in sales stays exponential for any length of time, it's going to strain their ability to get quality product out in a timely way.
I'm perfectly happy to see steady-but-fast growth here, as fast as can be sustained with quality and efficiency, but no more than that.
Devcool, not only highest volume since November, but more importantly, highest DOLLAR volume since last April 27th! A little more, and we'll even surpass that.
Whoa there!
How can per share profit hit .02 in 2013 when per share revenues won't even be that high?
The revenues/share should be somewhere between .01 and .015.
There might be new impetus tomorrow if people see BRAV on their "new 52 week high" screens tonight.
This guy nite on the ask has destroyed the impetus
Actually, Missy is right.
When you talk about a % increase in revenue, you subtract out the previous revenue, then divide by it.
If a company goes from $1.0 million one year to $1.1 million the next year, that's a 10% increase, not a 110% increase.
So for BRAV, it's a 237% increase for the full year.
Of course, the numbers in that table are just averages.
Better companies in those industries command higher multiples.
That table is just a frame of reference... a starting point.
As Beezerr has pointed out multiple times, BRAV gets much higher margins than typical retail, so higher P/S is justified just for that. Higher growth also justifies higher P/S.
So, perhaps your assumption of 3, 4, 5 or higher is reasonable for a BRAV P/S. I hope so.
It may just be a matter of gaining more legitimacy and exposure to investors.
Beezerr, as always, you make great points.
They did say that they dropped athletic wear because leggings were giving them higher margins.
In the short term, as revenues increase, margins should even improve slightly as their LA operations can handle some more load without huge cost increase. Since they're all in LA, they can be very efficient.
However, as they expand to other cities, I assume that margins will drop as there will be extra costs with ensuring high quality of product (either shipping from LA or finding suppliers in other cities). They'll probably also find that styles which work in LA don't work everywhere. Hopefully they're tracking online sales of different styles by urban area, so that they'll know what styles to stock as they go into new cities. I digress.
How well do you think they can keep costs low and margins high as they expand?
Here's a site that gives some P/S averages by industry.
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/psdata.html
5.8 is too high a multiple.
Go look up some P/S averages for various industries.
Low-growth retail is around 1.0.
High-growth retail like BRAV could probably justify 2.0 in short term and 3.0 once it's more "proven" in investors' minds, which is still happening. Maybe if it gets to a proven, hyper-growth company it could eventually get up to P/S of 4. That would be a dream come true.
Reported 12 month revenues (after returns) are only at .0047 right now.
Most here expect that to rise to .0060 or more after Q1 report, but for now conservative investors will go with that proven .0047 number for sales/share.
So, as BRAV gains exposure and more people do their DD, we could see the PPS rise to the 2.0 P/S level of .0094 in the near term (next month or so, I'm hoping).
As BRAV proves it can expand efficiently, and as it does other things to improve investor confidence like get current, get audited, etc., we should see closer to the 3.0 P/S, so by mid-year I wouldn't be surprised to see PPS closing in on .02. We just have to have patience while the rest of the world learns about BRAV and does their DD.
All just my opinion, of course.