Often irritated, never duplicated
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Elliot Gue's recent stock newsletter highlights projected shortage in uranium reserves as a trend. Travis Johnson of Stock Gumshoe talks about it (the trend, not LBSR specifically) here:
http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2010/08/resource-depletion-is-the-biggest-investment-story-of-the-decade.html
Obviously uranium demand is a big factor and I'd be fine if it started well before LBSR finds it's full enterprise valuation as reflected in the PPS.
And I believe I will be adding some new shares. Considered it this afternoon, but was busy and I am trying to stay disciplined and stick to my allotted percentages for pennies. Seems silly to consider this stock risky, but discipline is a necessary virtue in investing.
Dear Shorties...
Good luck making a proven reserve of precious metals worth less in the future, especially as metals futures climb in a manner consistent with early stage economic recovery and dedicated stimulus funds jack the uranium market. We are following historic low demand, buying into a limited amount of shares in what promises to be, well, a gold mine. Literally.
BTW, I hear gold prices are kinda rosy right now. I never buy gold due to the currency paradox, but it's price can certainly drive this stock in the abstract.
Surfs up, padres. Water's great, come on in.I'm not leaving 'til I'm pruney...
That's why I ponied up...
and bought right in this morning. Instantly lost some points, but have no concern that this won't recover eventually.
And I mean "eventually" in the literal sense, i.e. by way of an "event".
One catalyst I see eventually...
is becoming an acquisition target. Any micro to small cap that can target 30 million consumers in sheltered markets will be on the radar for some big boys, either to acquire the technology for continued use or to remove competition for traditional ad delivery.
Liking the 10-Q...
Revised (reduced) estimates for 2010 subscriber base, but clearer projected revenues based on subscriber count. $4-6 per subscriber on a target estimate of over 4 million by EOY 2011 is a nice goal, and that sort of revenue would go a long way toward building share price.
Emphasis on continuing int'l expansion sounds good too. Businesses that also generate strong revenue in currencies other than dollars will be desirable IMO. I have several stocks that are chosen partially on this criteria, and the emerging global consumer class of the BRIC nations may be the single biggest trend going right now.
Mebbe Ah's be addin' a few mo'...
Never mind, I was confused...
2 million it is. I sometimes stay up until 3:00 AM doing research.
=-)
2 million?
I research a lot of stocks and could be confused, but I'm pretty sure that I read 200 million for phase II implementation, and I believe I also touched on this point with Mr Heil in our conversation. I mentioned that securing the funding was critical to investor confidence and also suggested that a significant raise in the share price could make securing the funds much easier.
Obermueller's newsletter is teasing the new trend toward small scale nuke generation. Might be good news for a little domestic uranium mine with all the right catalysts in place...
Sorry, my bad...
The dip is my fault; I set an order last night to fill on the open, so this pullback is mineI have a keen knack for nabbing shares about to fall, so when I committed money, the cosmic gears shifted to deflate the run. I also know farmers who wait for me to wash my car so they know when it's about to rain. You can thank me if you bought on the dip, or curse me if my order set the +.10 entry for your market order.
(But I'm betting the entry point I regret now will look great in a few weeks, then better like a fine wine as time rolls on and up. My first two buys are targets to average down if MM's want to get truly stupid about the valuation of LBSR. Best estimates tell me I'll have original capital off the table in a year anyway.)
Some bold, assertive numbers would be nice, get this thing back on the radar. Seems like the attention is drying up.
Thank you rmanton...
...Just looking for my next acceptable risk. I appreciate your reply.
Filled a fat order this morning. I'd done enough DD that it was time to get in here for real. GLTA!
I have heard nothing from my queries at the cable companies.
But I did take a pretty strong position in LBSR, due to crazy convergence of factors supporting the stock. 64+ points in two days and I already doubled on my first stake. Hopefully ADSY will pick back up too.
Thank you for the link, Joey.
Hard to imagine the need for these products will go away. Website needs an investor relations contact, but I've read enough to know they are recently RM'd from a previously held shell. I would welcome anyone's comments good or bad regarding this stock, since there isn't too much public info.
Gracias!
I will check in from time to time, but right now this company doesn't even show up with a website. Growing sector, but too little info on this one.
Well Benny...
...they weren't that great of kids anyway. Probably their Mom's genetic contribution, not mine. Lord knows I left them with a perfectly good double-wide trailer and the power and cable still on...
The beauty of LBSR is that even the piddly cash I got for the brood is enough to make a killing at these entry prices. For this kind of potential, I wish I could sell my neighbor's kids too.
Concur. It would be hard for average Joe to believe that the volcano spit up minerals only down one face of the mountain. The management has made many shrewd moves along the way, especially the vegetation mineral-content analysis and early permitting.
I also think that there has probably never been a better time or place for this to become commercial. Alaska is a domestic known quantity, a state that supports development of commercial resources and rewards the citizens per-capita. It also removes the mining sector's typical geo-political uncertainty and currency discrepancies out of the equation.
BTW, anyone heard the rumor that jobs are scarce? If you ever wanted to find a lot of anxious people to wave signs that say "JOBS NOW!", this is the time and place. They will get the project done, and I sincerely hope they do so in a way that is as environmentally responsible as possible. The sort of corporate names popping up as partner interests know how to get things done, and they will.
Add some dedicated-resource stimulus spending to pump the uranium market and I believe you have the perfect storm of Event Convergence, supported by core data, a company with a record of making prescient and far-sighted decisions, heavy inside ownwership, science instead of hype, with a cherry on top. I fully expect them to release pictures of the survey that reveals a kitchen sink, PLUS a partridge in a pear tree.
This is why I have sold my children on the black market and put the funds in LBSR. I'm sure I'll make enough to fly over and find them later.
This posting contains forward-looking statements. I own shares in LSBR. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future outcome, i.e. I may not really be able to find the kids.
Newbie says Hi...
Quick search revealed this excerpt from the Medina corporate site. The entire document is a great presentation, well supported data and great depth and scope of info. Economic recoveries are often indicated by early jumps in raw commodities, so I'm researching metals. This equity offers a very attractive trading pattern over the years, but it also looks like some catalysts might be in place to make it a good hold.
I don't own it, not pumping it, inviting replies.
TABLE A
CURRENT VALUATIONS
Based on Preliminary Resource
Estimate of Gordon D. House, P.Geo.
February 6, 2003
Revised December 1, 2006
Alto de Lipangue Breccia Pipe
Gold 722,000 ounces at $620/ounce $447,440,000
Silver 6,500,000 ounces at $12/ounce 78,000,000
Copper 180,000,000 at $3.10/pound 558,000,000
Estimated gross metal content $1,083,640,000
Note: The 1/25/08 metal values would put that “Estimated gross metal content” at about $1.35 billion.
PRELIMINARY SUMMARY VALUATIONS
(pending the completion of the “comps” and DCF analyses)
METHODOLOGY # MARKET CAP VALUATION PER CORPORATION*
1) 1A=$157.5 million OR 1B=$315 million
15) $4.53 billion
17) $1.6 billion pre-production and $8 billion post-commencement of production subject to an 8% or so per annum discount factor until production commences.
18) $4.5 billion
19) $168 million
20) $168 million
(*assuming one third ownership per participant)
Note that the all important DCF and “comparables” approach to valuation are still pending. The extremely wide range of values obtained must also be noted. There are mining firms trading at $4 billion market caps that the companies co-owning Lipangue will probably never in their wildest dreams match in size and success. There are also mining firms with $150 million market caps that can only dream to make a discovery like that at Lipangue. If one takes the arithmetic average of the various valuations I think it would be wise to put extra “weighting” on the upcoming DCF calculations (when the numbers are available) and the various “comp” methods when those analyses have been completed. Some of the methodologies cited might be thought by some in the mining community as being fairly “off the wall” but until new information is released I believe it to be the best we can currently do at this particular stage of development to integrate the drilling information available, the spacing and extent of the surface expressions discovered to date, some basic geological principles and the geological models available (Classic Sillitoe-type porphyries and the Lowell-Gilbert model for alteration assemblages and mineralization deposition in copper porphyries). One would obviously not base financing decisions on many of these modalities.
Since valuations are time-stamped just like a balance sheet the two main takeaways from this entire exercise that stand out to me are firstly the obvious discrepancy between current market caps of these two companies and their inherent “Value” no matter what number you come up with while utilizing whatever valuation methodology you so choose. The other takeaway is the high probability (which is never a 100% certainty) that the “Value” is probably going to increase significantly as the drilling plan proceeds. The overall “Sillitoe” porphyry model with the “Lowell-Gilbert” mineralization and alteration assemblages model just fits too tightly at Lipangue.
Nice interview. Smart guys.
What happened when ZVTK missed filing?
Plus 13 million volume today, consistent with the best days we've seen.
Added to my position this morning
I set up a limit a little over bid to get my order filled, being reasonably sure that today's action would be inflated on the recent moves. Too many junk buyers at the moment, vultures who saw yesterday's move and hope to flip for a while with no real research. 30%+ numbers will make this thing show up on a lot of newsletters, bringing more day traders. Good for volume, but probably not good for being able to trust the current run as setting a new bottom, although anything is possible. I already have a price target for more if Friday pulls back.
Saw dirtbags on the Yahoo board saying LBSR had it's run, time to take profits and put them into the trash du jour ticker of the day, I believe the Amergence Group. We have the type of action that attracts kings and fools, so keep yer head. Long term, that pile of minerals isn't going to be worth less than many times our market cap anytime soon.
Early retirement, anyone?
Well...
I was watching ADSY when it went up 89 points in a single day. Today was a great day, but I bet there are equally dramatic moves in the future.
What's your best guess for a time frame?
Obviously 1.00 is eventually a big psychological threshold, then 5.00 is where some of the the institutional players can jump in and drive the pace. Apparently the goods are there in large supply, under glacial deposit instead of embedded in solid rock.
When do you (anyone) see the 1.00 and 5.00 marks coming? Pure speculation.
Time to have a buying plan up or down.
They can keep their GM. This and LBSR are the only green in my portfolio today.
My kind of day...
An early dip to make sure my order is filled, then a run to make money in the first 20 minutes.
Up, Up, and AWAY-Y-Y-Y-Y-Y-Y...
I have read enough to know that this is a good bet, if not a completely safe one. At least it's a real company sitting on real reserves with a leader who understands the science and has made this sort of thing happen before.
Many thanks to the kind folks who share their DD here. I'm a big fan of science and there is a great deal of data that says they will develop a commercial extraction here. Logic dictates that those who hold the permits will be rewarded. Projected reserve totals are worth owning a piece even if metal prices recede, and the enterprise value may well increase with commodities like uranium and copper. I suspect gold is in for a serious correction within a few years, but copper has room to run from here, IMO.
I can go with up or down short-term, as any serious dip would just allow me to average down at this point. I have limited cash and am sworn to keep penny stocks as less than 5% of my portfolio, but I'd find an excuse to double my position for the right dip.
I finally placed an order for tomorrow's open. My computer has bugs and I didn't feel safe typing in passwords, so I went offsite and used a friend's station to log in. Hopefully I get in before the rocket ride.
Maybe we're moving because...
This thing can't stay under the radar forever if it's as good as some of the press. We might all be very glad we took a chance with this one, although I'd be very surprised if there weren't bumps along the way.
Thans, Oryx
Here's an article from a site I like that talks about the Pebble project. Some of the comments at the bottom are interesting as well.
http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2009/03/alaskas-secret-gold-mine-biggest-gold-discovery-of-last-20-years.html
Thanks for your reply
You just gave me a lot of info I hadn't seen yet and it makes sense. I'll continue reading, but this is looking more like a 'when' than an 'if'...
"The Pebble Project’s mineral property interests do not contain any ore reserves or any known body of economic mineralization" is a pretty strong statement. Does the plant composition testing offer a strong argument to that statement? Has anyone involved in this operation used the same testing to identify commercially-feasible reserves elsewhere?
Sorry if some of this seems old hat to some of you. I'll continue to dig as time allows, but if any of you can point me to some solid info that refutes the 6K statement I'd appreciate it.
BTW, I've read many of the posts here and at Yahoo, plus some of the linked articles, and some of you have contributed greatly to the discussion, so thank you. If you understand the fundamentals, it's easier to see past the hype and hope.
I will continue to research this when I have time. Here is an excerpt from Northern Dynasty's recent SEC Form 6-K. Again, I don't yet hold this stock and don't want to bash, but the bold text below gives me pause.
http://www.otcmarkets.com/edgar/GetFilingHtml?FilingID=7414091
NORTHERN DYNASTY MINERALS LTD.
MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS
SIX MONTHS ENDED JUNE 30, 2010
1.15.5 Risk Factors
The following are the principal risk factors and uncertainties which, in management's opinion, are likely to most directly affect the ultimate feasibility of the Pebble project.
The Pebble Project’s mineral property interests do not contain any ore reserves or any known body of economic mineralization
Although there are known bodies of mineralization on the Pebble Project, and the Pebble Partnership has completed core drilling programs within, and adjacent to, the deposits to determine measured and indicated resources, there are currently no known reserves or body of commercially viable ore and the Pebble Project must be considered an exploration prospect only. Extensive additional work is required before the Company or the Pebble Partnership can ascertain if any mineralization may be economic and hence constitute “ore”. Engineering, socioeconomic and environmental studies are ongoing. Exploration for minerals is a speculative venture necessarily involving substantial risk. If the expenditures the Company and/or the Pebble Partnership incur and have incurred in the past on the Pebble Project do not result in discovery and development of commercial quantities of ore, the value of exploration and acquisition expenditures incurred will be totally lost.
Feasibility work to determine the viability of the Pebble Project has not been completed
Final feasibility work has not been done to confirm the pit or underground mine design, mining methods, and processing methods. Final feasibility could determine that the currently assumed pit or other mine design, mining methods, and processing methods are incorrect. Construction and operation of the mine and processing facilities depends on securing environmental and other permits on a timely basis. No permits have been applied for and there can be no assurance that required permits can be secured or secured on a timely basis. Cost estimates used are based on costs at projects believed to be comparable, and not based on firm price quotes. Costs, including design, procurement, construction, and on-going operating costs and metal recoveries could be materially different from those currently assumed. There can be no assurance that mining can be conducted at assumed rates and grades. The project requires the development of port facilities, roads and electrical generating and transmission facilities. Although the Company believes that the State of Alaska favours the development of these facilities, there can be no assurance that these infrastructure facilities can be developed on a timely and cost-effective basis. Energy risks include the potential for significant increases in the cost of fuel and electricity.
Volatility in Metal Prices
The project has been evaluated using projected long-term price levels for copper, gold and molybdenum. Prices for these commodities are historically volatile, and the Company has no control of or influence on those prices, all of which are determined in international markets. The level of interest rates, the rate of inflation, the world supplies of and demands for copper, gold and molybdenum and the stability of exchange rates can all cause fluctuations in these prices. Such external economic factors are influenced by changes in international investment patterns and monetary systems and political developments. There can be no assurance that the prices of these commodities will continue at current levels or that they will not decline below the projected prices.
The prices of copper, gold and molybdenum have fluctuated in recent years, and future significant price declines could cause unfavorable changes in the economics of the project and may result in investors being unwilling to finance mineral projects, with the result that the Company may not have sufficient financing with which to funds its exploration and development activities.
http://www.otcmarkets.com/edgar/GetFilingHtml?FilingID=7414091
Newbie Here...
Anyone know if the Alaskan Caldera has been surveyed for minerals by conventional means previous to the current operations? My reading indicates that some new and unconventional testing was done to establish the current prospects, but I was curious if anyone knows of any previous attempts by others to determine the mineral composition of the area.
BTW, I hold no position in this stock and have no reason to bash it or praise it. I like a lot of what I see at the moment, but hot prospect mining stocks are something of a cliche in penny stock research.
ADSY coverage back on Yahoo
This was a main concern of mine, as a sudden lack of coverage can screw you in a volatile micro-cap market. I like it...
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ADSY.PK
I've got emails out to some tech people at some cable companies they are contracting, asking if like the system, does it integrate easily, generate revenue, attract customer interest? Nothing back yet.
Having investigated the hype further, it seems like a great business model, but can it maintain or grow the stock price?
Here's a press release from Superwire about their AD Systems contracted service. Sounds pretty enthusiastic.
http://www.superwire.com/newsupw/PR%20New/2007%2012%2012.htm
But how long until the next 10Q, will the stock continue the pace of devaluation during that time, and will the bounce of the next 10Q offset the damage done in the meantime? I like this business model, but I'm not above thinking this could become another flatline, especially as credit markets tighten up in the next few quarters.
I told Mr. Heil that a good stock bounce could help the effort to finance the next phase, estimated at 200 milion. Conversely, a tanking stock price will make it much harder to secure forward financing. Those million subscribers won't mean much if the business can't follow through.
What I'm really not liking is the fact that this exchange switch killed a lot of the public info on this company. When Yahoo dumped coverage, a big list of links, posts, etc went away and the news that replaces it is more obscure and scattered. Less headlines, less coverage, less volume. As such, there is a smaller chance that people will hear any good news coming out, and of course the chance that bad news will also be slow getting here. It would be a convenient time to pull a fast one...
So everyone be vigilant. I have a fraction of a fraction of my acceptable risk here, but I think a scenario has arisen wherein it will be easier for us to lose money. Maybe a few calls to Mr Heil are in order, letting him know that we aren't interested in taking for a ride into triple-ought land.
In addition to IH, where does everyone get news on this equity? I simply need more available info or I won't feel confident holding this thing. The other message boards are also short on hard news, and the list of headlines that was on the Yahoo site was about 10x longer than any of the others. Bloomberg, MarketWatch, etc are acting like the only news on this company that matters is from the last few days. Patterns emerge from watching data interactions evolve over time.