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Never Mind. It seems the Mods have taken care of it. Pity, my response was rather humorous...... I thought.
Semi
Thanks, subzero, your post contained the most positive news for AMD that has happened in the last 2 months:
The circuitry is already inside existing Athlon 64 chips, but it can't be activated yet. That will occur when Microsoft releases Service Pack 2 for Windows XP early in the second quarter. By then, AMD also will have a catchy marketing name for the technology
I hope Morris is correct, for AMD's sake..... You're right, Best news for AMD in awhile. Microsoft to deliver a Service Pack when AMD Marketing says they will.
Ummmmm....... No, Never mind.
Semi
Looks like AMD's 40,000 Opterons for all of 2003 make Hector and Jerry look plain dumb and silly after claiming the Opteron would outship the Itanium in their first quarter of shipments.
Well, as an admitted....... Bee, this is more what a Long Bee should be concerned with.....
Our investment thesis for AMD largely hinges on the company's ability to make Athlon 64 units in sufficient volumes, and our sell rating is based upon the belief that AMD will struggle with yields for at least the next couple of quarters. We would get more positive on the company if evidence of Athlon 64 manufacturability were to come to light.
If.....If they did, it would certainly be good for AMD,and logically not good for intel. But I just can't help also noting.......
INVESTMENT THESIS
We rate Advanced Micro Devices a Sell, Speculative Risk (3S) with a target price of $12. We believe the company is at a significant competitive disadvantage relative to Intel, its
larger rival, in terms of manufacturing capacity, 300mm penetration, design resources, cash position, and ecosystem partner support.
Go Onnnnn......., who needs to lead in THOSE 5 things, when we all know it's about Blasti..... Umm, never mind, don't go there. IMO, As many a sports team has discovered, it takes more than a "Superstar Product", every few years, to build a Championship Team. Call it bias, or whatever. I think I'll stick with the Semiconductor portion of my portfolio as 100% intel, 0%AMD. But that's probabably just Me...Bee...
Buuuuuuuuzzzzzzzzzzzzing..... All the way to the bank.
Semi
Semi, actually we did discuss this very issue when the RWT article was posted a while back.
Paul
Wooops, Missed it, sorry. Must have been out..... ummmm...... living my life?
<smirk>
Semi
Apparently the problem that they were having was the low-k dielectric was peeling. It would start at the edges and, I gather, nuke the wafer. This sounds similar to the problem that IBM is having, albeit with a different low-k dielectric.
Gee, I wonder if "peeling" could be construed by someone as a "uniformity issue". Naaaaaaa
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=13500
When the INQUIRER attended Computex in September 2003, we saw documents at motherboard manufacturers with estimates for AMD microprocessors during last year and this.
Don't know if it's true or not. The Inq dismisses it by showing a Motherboard Mfg "estimate" that they saw...... In September.
Last time I looked, Sept was pre-Q4, maybe it's a different issue and AMD didn't know about at the time, or maybe they did, and figured they could fix it before having to tell their customers, or maybe it's all BS, and SB should cure their case of "cranium rectumitus". Maybe Maybe Maybe.
I guess we'll know on the 20th. If AMD comes in any more than a smidgen below expectations, it's true, if they blow away, it's not. I'm willing to table the discussion until then, but as AaaaaaNald would say.....
I'll Be Back....
Semi
Semi, from what I read in the IEDM article over at RWT, that seems to have been the issue(or something like it), and they have fixed it, or they wouldn't be talking about it.
Paul
Could be. Like I said, don't work with it, don't know first hand the issues, don't know the yields. Maybe it is fixed. The question I have is, was it fixed during Q4, or was there a manufacturing issue with it during that timeframe like SB....speculates? An issue, which could also now be fixed.
Isn't that a legitimate question for Other AMD investors to ask, based on (admittedly) sparse opinion, from SB? Makes no difference to me, my money is elsewhere, just trying to present the other side of the coin.
It's a dirty job around here, but somebodies got to do it.
Semi
Faith Restored......
So, from what I can tell from the 4 messages in my mailbox, that led to deleted messages, I would guess that Andy Grave wasn't too nice in his responses to me. From the couple of words available in the titles, my guess is, he "disagreed" with what I said I heard about SOI, even after I said I never worked with SOI, and was basing my statement on people talk. Guess he ignored...... Ummmm I mean, didn't see that part. Maybe what I heard was wrong. Just goes to show....... Don't believe everything you hear.
The Faith restored for me, was the fact that the messages were deleted. Fair is Fair. Also, a side benefit IMO is, for those that did see them, there probably isn't too much doubt anymore, about the quality and character of Mr Grave.
Semi
re:...time to short Intel
Dan, How's your short position looking now?
Intel Closing Stock Price on the day of Dan's Post (12/31)
$32.05
Current Intel Stock Price
$34.24
Change: +6.8%
My guess is, Dan's Shorting of intel stock is not doing to well. Just a guess.
Semi
BTW.......
No need for the board to thank me for being so "Helpful".
Better now?
Semi
Whenever you post that a certain semiconductor company has certain manufacturing problems, this is not informative unless to try to make any quantitative analisys of those problems. This is not nesessary to be revenue predictions, that can be wafer starts or yields estimates, or whatever is helpful for others. There is no company that do not dump dices into trash can. Constantly pointing us to the fact that the company does that is just trolling.
But since you ask so nicely, I'm pretty sure I know what's wrong with the SOI Process. I've never worked with SOI, so this is..... speculation (just in case people thought otherwise). From what I've heard, the biggest issue with SOI is the Deposition of the Insulator. There appears to be uniformity issues across the wafer surface, and non-uniformity of insulation materials usually plays havock with Speed and Yield, which is compounded if you are depping the same type insulator on multiple layers. But without seeing the data, or running some Diffusion Experiments, and skewing the process gas flows, pressure, and applied heat, I can't say what it would take to fix it. For AMD's sake, if it's not yet fixed, they better get it done soon.
Semi
Whenever you post that a certain semiconductor company has certain manufacturing problems, this is not informative unless to try to make any quantitative analisys of those problems. This is not nesessary to be revenue predictions, that can be wafer starts or yields estimates, or whatever is helpful for others. There is no company that do not dump dices into trash can. Constantly pointing us to the fact that the company does that is just trolling.
So, let's take your points individually....
Whenever you post that a certain semiconductor company has certain manufacturing problems, this is not informative unless to try to make any quantitative analisys of those problems.
Go back and look again, I was posting what Smith Barney said, and I "quantified" it with a bunch of "If's" "Maybe's" and "Could be's". That's speculation. It has been argued several times by AMD fans, that speculation is permitted here, even encouraged. It sounds like you're stating that negative speculation is only OK here if it is negative about intel, otherwise, if it's AMD, it's only OK if you can quantify it. I'm sure you're not saying that, are you?
This is not nesessary to be revenue predictions, that can be wafer starts or yields estimates, or whatever is helpful for others.
So, I can only post here, if my comments are helpful for others? Is that what you're saying? If so, can I expect the same admonisment from you, when AMD fans post messages that are not deemed to be "helpfull for others"? I'll be looking for those posts from you. Thanks for clarifying your position.
There is no company that do not dump dices into trash can. Constantly pointing us to the fact that the company does that is just trolling.
So, technically, you're incorrect. Bad die get recycled, not dumped into the trash, and that suggestion was initially made by Mysef, and it's not the first time..... or the 10th time Steve has said it here and on SI. Can I expect you to now post the same "trolling" admonisment to his post? Because I notice you didn't do that...... Yet.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=2084755
Semi
SemiconEng -
First, I'm not sure why your post was deleted so I restored it. I think it may have been a mistake.
Most likely, it was the "idiot" comment. Somebody probably complained, so I guess the truth hurt..... somebody.
Your points on who fixes the screwups is interesting. In a perfect world, You screwed up, you fix it, may be a nice goal but I've seen many counterexamples. I'm sure you've seen desperate managers pulling in their senior designer to fix a problem attributed to a younger engineer when it starts to get close to shipping time.
No manager wants his team to be the one blamed for a schedule slip. That is death in this business!
Of course from what I've seen, critical areas of chip design that would affect speed on cutting edge chip designs, are not assigned to Junior Engineers. More likely, a Taskforce of resources would be assigned in the scenerio you describe, with the original deign engineer leading it. But I get your point.
Semi
Too many Intel employees, contractors, and retirees posting FUD.
Though I hate generating noise to point it out.
Mysef
No, you don't hate it at all. Apparently since you feel a need to mention it so often on here, AND on SI, It's more likely, that it's exactly what brings you, your greatest pleasure.
Semi
SemiconEng, maybe you will post your prediction of AMD revenue for Q4? That will make your claims a little bit more easy to understand. Thanks.
If posting a prediction of revenue is your qualifier as to whether a person knows what they're talking about, then you're out of luck. As far as making chips, I say I know what I'm talking about. People can take it, or leave it.
If you're fishing for some alterior motive, I think I've already stated several times, that I'm biased towards intel. That doesn't change any of the Physics of Semiconductor Manufacturing, or how to solve Manufacturing Excursions in the most efficient manner. Been there, Done that. And at least I'm honest about my bias.
Frankly, I don't give a rats patootie whether people understand and/or believe me or not. They can "understand" (believe) whatever they want. I thought I made that pretty clear previously.
And BTW, I give even less of a rats patootie about what revenue a company makes that I'm not invested in. It's about My Money, not somebody else's. But thanks for asking.
Semi
Semi -
IF..... IF.... there is a choice, Pushing the Process to get Higher Speeds, from what I've seen, always.... always, results in lower yields.
Gee.... Do you think the same thing might happen to AMD???
Naaaawwww, they're immune to the Physics of Semiconductor Manufacturing. They have "Dirk", which according to some, makes them Design-Manufacturing Gods.
From what I've read from some here, they're about to surpass Intel in Manufacturing, and all that stuff about SOI Manufacturing Issues, was just Intel Secret Agent FUD. Pricewatch says so, haven't you heard?
Semi
At least that's what the rumors say.
Joe
And all those rumors came from analyists. Maybe you shouldn't believe everything you hear, or believe something, because it fits what you already want to believe.
Semi
Big part of the blame for that may be on the side of the quality of the 90nm process. At least that's my take.
Joe
There is nothing wrong with the quality of intel's 90nm process.
Semi
Duplicate Message Already Posted By Someone Else
Athlon 64 Q4 Shortfall Due To Manufacturing Problems?
From gwnorth on SI.....
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=19664513
"Smith Barney making comments on
Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD). The analyst says the company had a Q4 Athlon
64 shortfall due to manufacturing problem - expects shipments of 170,000 versus
their original estimate of 350,000."
www.streetinsider.com
Follow-up to request for link.....
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=19664594
<where is the exact link. no wonder amd is not at 18 now.
who to believe >
It just came through as part of my news from my quote service. Sometimes they only give headlines for certain stories so these companies can sell subscriptions.
I searched around Google to try and find the quote, and a direct link, but there was nothing, so..... "Grain of salt".
Semi
So, Prescott will not be faster than Northwood, clock-for-clock?
http://www.aceshardware.com/
Do you think that makes sence?
No it doesn't make sense.
Intel: King of the Wi-Fi Frontier?
Its new Grantsdale chipset for desktops stands to do for traditional PCs what Centrino has done for laptops
http://yahoo.businessweek.com/technology/content/dec2003/tc20031230_9504_tc055.htm
Not sure if I saw this posted. I think wirelesss is in it's infancy, and a strong push by intel in this area bodes well for future profits........ Of course this assumes that WiFi will have the same success Centrino has had, and "Pull it's weight". Centrino Deja Vu?
Semi
Read here:
The Link to push when making a "General Public Posting", is "Post New Message", not "Public Reply". That way, people won't get "the mistaken impression" that you're making a..... "Public Reply". If you need any more assistance using iHub, feel free to ask.
Semi
Semi, just saying that smugness can lead to complacency, which can lead to underestimating one's competition. Happens all the time.
Paul
No, what you made was an insinuation that I was smug. You didn't repond to any of the points that I made, but you did find it necessary to comment on your opinion of the tone (smugness) of the poster. That's a personal attack. Go back and read it again, and maybe you'll realize it, instead of trying to tap dance around your personal attack.
BTW, if you want to make a general post, the link is "Post New Message", not "Public Reply". Please try it next time, that way in the future, maybe people won't get "the wrong idea".
Semi
Semi, get a grip! It was not aimed at one "side" or the other, there's been plenty of it going around on both.
Paul
Just pointing out that based on quite a few recent posts of yours, that your attitude, which I used to consider fairly neutral, has certainly shifted over to the Droid side. An example here, is that you only seem to post responses like this one, to intel fans, that's all. Coincidence? Sigmund Freud wouldn't say so. Show me different, and I'll take it back. Otherwise, I stand by my comment.
Semi
I am not registered on IBD, so I can't read it except first lines. I recall I read it when it was public. Nothing special, they just gave the quick overview of situation, including Yamhill rumours and quoted the Intel guy who said that they will bring it in when customers ask.
OK, and I'll let ya know if I hear of Mr Manetta's "sudden decision to pursue other career opportunities", which I'm sure would make Inq's front page.
Semi
Sem, I actually agree with chipguy that the AMD64 based Pentium will come in 2005. I think they will announce it no sooner than 6 months from now.
Since chipguy states he has no connection to intel, his guesses are as good as anybodies, but not necessarily any better than yours........ or mine. Knowing what can be done is one thing, knowing it will or will not be done, is something else.
AMD has a chance to make the brand strong before Intel clones their chip. Technically they can sell 5 million of AMD64 chips in 2004, should be ok.
The question is, will technically equal reality? I'll reserve any comment on the "should be ok" part. We'll see.
Semi
I found it using search. It requires authentication to read the whole story. But I think the title is good enough.
I'll take your word for it. Did they comment on intel's statement?
Semi
Semi, not now. PR disaster will happen when Intel will announce the support of AMD64 in Pentium5.
Sure Sure Sure......
The Announcement'll come out..... Tomorrow
Bet Your Bottommmmmm Dollarrrrrrr......Tomorrow
Come What... Maaaaaaaaaaayyy
TOMORROW........, TOMORROW......, It'll Come Out..... TOMORROW
It's Ooooonlyyyyy A Daaaaaaaaay AaaaaaWaaaaaaay.........
Semi
My guess, is either IBD's reporter didn't record the interview, which is unlikely when interviewing a spokesperson, or they did, and when they replayed the tapes, what was said, wasn't what was reported. Tough break.
Semi
HAAAAAA, I just thought of a good one, I can't resist....
Maybe it's the IBD reporter who should soon be..... "expecting a promotion" (tm Mysef)
Semi
I dont see anything to complain about. K.
Of course you don't see. Let me help you. When a person says "I don't understand", it's an admission of confusion, with a subset request for clarification, not a complaint. If you need any more assistance with the English Language, feel free to ask.
Semi
And another thing, "I don't understand"" (Did ya catch that?) is, why, if IBD's story was true, why did they take it down, and why the inquirer printed intel's statement that "The confirmation neven happened"? USUALLY, when a respected news reporting institution "has the goods", so to speak, they say something like "We stand by our original story".
That didn't happen here. Why not? As a matter of fact, something very different happened. That fact, could make a person go "Hummmmmmm".
My guess, is either IBD's reporter didn't record the interview, which is unlikely when interviewing a spokesperson, or they did, and when they replayed the tapes, what was said, wasn't what was reported. Tough break.
Semi
Semi, I've always considered Intel to be a fierce competitor, but if that kind of smugness is pervasive at Intel, I think AMD is going to do very well.
Paul
And BTW Paul, next time, you might want to consider attacking the message, instead of the messenger....... because I noticed that you didn't do that this time.
Semi
A little maturity would be in order here. JoeP is only 18, but he's behaving better than many here!!
Paul
I notice you only seem to post this type of criticism to intel fans, yet you remain silent on similar postings by AMD fans.
Interesting to see the personality change continue.
Semi
Elmer makes money on AMD, and he should be applauded for that. Instead, many here on this board take offense at his AMD opinions. Why?
For Steve Harris, it's not about making money.
Semi
so I don't understand what makes the Inquirer say those things
Mike was explicitely quoting the source of his piece - even with a link to it.
Then he did ask Intel for confirmation and posted the denial he got on it.
I dont see anything to complain about. K.
Of course you don't see. Let me help you. When a person says "I don't understand", it's an admission of confusion, with a subset request for clarification, not a complaint. If you need any more assistance with the English Language, feel free to ask.
Semi
Semi, I think noone should be long-term investor in anything. Good investor should take money and run when time comes.
You have your trading strategy, and others have theirs. I've been VERY successfull with mine, Good luck with yours.
Semi
PR disaster.
The Stock Market today does not seem to agree with you.
Semi
Semi, I've always considered Intel to be a fierce competitor, but if that kind of smugness is pervasive at Intel, I think AMD is going to do very well.
Paul
Sure, and if success or failure was based on smugness, instead of profits, I'd agree with you. It isn't, and I don't.
Not that your comments come close to a personal attack or anything....... eh? Interesting to see that personality shift.
Semi
Semi, You forgot to mention the possibility of a pole shift, how about those Alien guy's Elmer talkes about; the possibility's are endless.
I'm only posting in the spirit of completeness!
Jules
Ha, very amusing. Of course, anything can happen, but my scenerio is based on reality, while other's appear to be based on.......... Fantasy?
Semi
No doubt Intel is heading into PR disaster. Itanium is already quite compromised.
Or........
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=13330
What I find interesting, is that if you go to the intel web page, and search on the name of this "supposed" intel "representative", you get nothing....
http://search.intel.com/corporate/
You searched for Manetta.
This search found 0 results. We suggest one of the following:
Check the spelling of the words you entered
Try again using other words or phrases
Visit the Intel.com Site Map
Of course, if you then input the name of the person that said the story was B.S., TA-DA, you find he's a member of intel Public Relations:
http://www.intel.com/pressroom/archive/releases/20010410ma.htm
Register: For information on how to register, please check Intel's investor relations Web site at www.intc.com.
Contact: Doug Lusk, Intel investor relations, (408) 765-1679
Tom Beermann, Intel public relations, (408) 765-6855
So, even if this Manetta person does work for intel, it is very likely that he IS NOT an "intel representative", as the Inquirer claimed. So I have to question who this person is, why the Inquirer says he's a "representative", when it appears he's not, so I don't understand what makes the Inquirer say those things, much less believe that Manetta knows WTF he's talking about. Good for Web Page hits?
Semi
Fortunately for AMD they don't need to jump above the head anymore. The manufacturing process they have now plus exceptional Opteron design, which is already on sale, is perfectly enough to show a very decent profit in 2004.
Sure, all that is fine, if apparently what you're looking at is short term, 2004. What happens after that? An interesting question, that a Long Term Investor, looking at the bigger picture, might ask themself is...... What's going to happen after that, if AMD, Oooopppssss, sorry, I meant IBM, can't develop a Fully Depleated SOI Process in a Timely, Cost Effective manner? Or if AMD can't develop a True 64 bit Chip? The X86 Cross License with intel doesn't include IA-64 baby, and IMO, X86-64 or for that matter INTC64 (if it exists), is going to run out of steam, sooner, rather than later, assuming of course that Opteron doesn't cook itself first, trying to ramp the speeds on that Partially Depleated SOI Process. But hey, I guess from your point of view, you're correct, things look pretty good for AMD......... For 2004.
Semi