is... a buy and hold investor of dividend US and Canadian stocks
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I am curious what is meant by "code". The use of the word makes it sound like a programming language, but I don't think that is it. I think it has more to do with data formatting.
At any rate, your post jives with other things I have read/ heard. I think the bottom line is that this is not a viable business because it is simply too reliant on one man. I would bet that the truth of the matter is that a percentage of the tapes will be straightforward, but a percentage may be unreadable. A further percentage may require JB's expertise but may be readable with his involvement. After all of that, it does not seem like a viable business. I would bet that his contract does not guarantee 100% delivery. It is probably on a "best efforts" basis. This makes it really difficult as an investor to judge the value of it. Anyway, the numbers speak for themselves... the revenues just are not there.
There is something else that seems to be present here is a type of technical snobbery that persists in all of the high technology business. Really smart people in this business are prone to not writing things down or documenting things, and to even protect personal knowledge and expertise for their own benefit. I spent 15 years in the software industry and have since moved on to construction/ engineering, and gladly have left that kind of attitude behind me. In dealing with technical people in general I have found that they are not very good at communicating the bigger picture, at estimating, and simply being manageable (I am a manager...). Lots of companies just leave them alone, feed the odd pizza beneath the door, and hope for the best. I have learned what the term "herding cats" means and it describes trying to manage these people exactly. It is part of the reason why high tech stocks are all over the place. It is not a "managed" business in the same way that large capital (Construction) projects are.
At the end of the day it is really hard to know if this is a viable business that can be commercialized, automated, and productized or not... I have dealt with enough "geniuses" to know how hard it can be to know whether they are deliberately snowing/ confusing you or if it is really as complicated as they are saying...
geez zardiw, those Bears sound horrible. But looking at the chart, don't you think that the stock would have recovered? I mean a Bear Raid can only have an effect for a short period of time. This thing appears to have FLATLINED and the upswing from Dec to April appears to be an ANOMALY.
Besides, isn't a Bear Raid against BASIC MARKET THEORY which states that no indivudual or group of individuals can affect stock prices? I remember reading about this in business school.
Here is another company doing P2O in the UK... what JBII doing has been done before...
http://www.cynarplc.com/
Here is an interesting P2O IPO in Australia...
http://www.gizmag.com/go/4534/
Here is a patent application for a catayst in India. Is this a threat to JBII? It has been around a few years.. one patent is for the process and one is for the catalyst.
http://www.rexresearch.com/zadgnkar/wo05094990.pdf
http://www.rexresearch.com/zadgnkar/wo02061015.pdf
Has this board considered the competitive threat from Natural State Research??
http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2009/08/us-firm-says-its-found-cheap-easy-way-to-convert-plastic-to-oil.html
He says he can make a similar fuel from any kind of plastic for less than $1/gallon. How many gallons in a barrel?
No, it is not, but the price was steady at $5.00 prior to restatements. I could not believe how steady it was actually. I was waiting for it to fall because of the failure to deliver on stated timelines, but the restatement was the straw that broke the camel's back.
Had JBI delivered on promises (had sites rolling out in Florida in February and initial sites up and running), the stock price may have been maintained. These expectations were certainly built-in with prices of $5.00 and up to $7.70.
Investors are not going to invest in developmental-stage companies and take a loss in order to fund their development. If there is no P&L there has to be at least delivery on expectations that drive a stock up like that.
Zardiw:
I am just curious, what exactly is a Bear Raid? I mean in terms that an average guy like me can understand, how exactly can a bunch of people (the Bears?) bring the price down from over $5 to where it is now? Please, enlighten us.
I think that I am just being honest. I could have come out and make the accusation straight out but i am not that kind of guy. I don't like to make accusations that are unfounded. And the truth is that, along with many other issues, we just don't know. It is not so much a case of making a disclaimer to protect myself, but to say it in terms of probabilities.
But this is the nature of investing. I learned long ago in school that there are two schools of thought; market timing, and stock picking. At the time I was told that most people use market timing. Took me a few years to realize why that is true. The market does not value stocks fairly throughout a business cycle, not even close. I can quote several stocks that are related to travel that got hammered after 2007, all the while patiently building their business. Nothing fundamentally wrong. In 2009 they were worth 1/10 their former value, and now are worth 1/4. Is that fair to the investors who bought in and patiently waited?
The best thing is likely a combination of both (picking good stocks in good times). And a good success ratio is probably 60-70%, and if they are good stocks you may as well average down if they pull back... again, all probabilities..
So with JBII, given all I know about this, I think this transaction is very suspicious as not being arms-length in the best interest of shareholders. I can't say for sure. The fact that money has been spent on painting and the figure given is a dead giveaway for me. I would like to know how it is valued on the books. That is one reason why when this news came out I chose to walk away. It was a deviation from original plan, which I don't like.
If you look at the board at that time, no one batted an eye. The flag-waving and enthusiasm is laughable to go back and look at now. Don't you agree that the masses here accepted it verbatim without even considering the possibility that all was not as it seemed?
well it seems as if that is indeed the case if we are to believe Mr Bordynuik.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=46615229&txt2find=blending|site
Personally I would not trust that statement, but that is just me. If that plant is not ready to go... he has misled people here... I am not saying that he did, just saying that it his assetion is unverifiable at this time, especially under all that nice 24k paint. We can't really say for sure what it is worth because it was not an arms-length deal.
In doing my searching, I noted that someone wondered what it was then valued on the books as an asset. Great question. Could not find the answer... tonight.
the usual story.... right. WPF.
Well, call me Lieutenant Columbo, but something just bothers me about what you just said... or wrote..
If it was well-maintained, laid up properly, and Cost 3M dollars (as the PR said), then... WHY DID IT GO FOR A MERE 130K?
I just can't get it out of my mind...
oh.. and btw, any system has moving parts, most of which is internal if it is piping. Any system requires periodic inspections and preventitive maintenance work. Valves have to be inspected, repacked, etc.... it is not visible to the naked eye. And quite frankly, paint means squat. It may be done once when a plant is brand new..
i agree that painting is not important. I have posted as such. But, it is the finishing touch on a plant upgrade, which from the sounds of Rawnoc's quote from the financial statement, was what they did. I just don't agree that they could do that for 24k. I think they just painted it, accomplishing nothing.
I will believe that.... when PIGS FLY...
NO, we are nitpicking as to whether they just painted the tanks for show or did a proper refit. I believe y ou were the one that changed the subject as to how the costs would be accounted for.
case wide open. It is not an OPERATING EXPENSE. It is a one-time expense. I worked in a company that had an operations group and as a Project Person I had to interface and work with them, and we used to fight over cost all the time. I know the difference.
Operating expenses are expenses incured as a part of the normal operation of a company. Preventitive maintenance and unscheduled maintenance is all part of operations. That plus the guys involved in the operations of the plant like the operators. That is not what this is. This is an investment intended to bring a plant into service from some other state. It is an upgrade, a change in plant capacity and/ or function. Definitely a capital item...
A Cost Accountant would agree with me I am sure. No matter how JBI chooses to report it, which should be interesting...
For sure those costs are part of capital cost. What else are you going to charge it to? I personally ran several capital projects and everybody in our group charged to them by the hour as necessary. I even was in the unenviable position of having to do Cost Control when work was drying up in late 2008/ 2009. At that time everybody knew that if they were not charging to a project they were on the layoff train. I had to fight to maintain some kind of control and it was not a fun job.
People who are on project-oriented positions in companies must have projects to charge to. I don't think that JBI has painters or technicians on-staff, so it would have been outsourced...and likely the testing as well.
The testing would have to be done by a technician and those guys make as much as engineers do. The painting, well I admit they are not tradesman...
the question remains.
I must question this statement, simply because the amount of money that was spent on the blending site according to the last financial report was 24k. If they did what your post says they did (and I don't question that the statement is contained in the report), there is no way it would only cost 24k.
That amount of money is inline with the cost to paint the facility. I can pretty much tell that because that is about what the same line item was worth in my estimate when I worked on similar projects at that industrial gases plant.
I think they just painted it and did little else...
Think about it, you would have a minimum of 2 people working at one time.
24k = 240 hours @ $100/hour, or 3 weeks (for a team of two).
or
240k = 480 hours @ $50/hour. More reasonable but still unrealistic.
And that is just labour, not taking into account equipment and materials. Analyzers are not cheap... at least a few k for those..
Replacement parts?
Testing? That is commissioning... that is lots of hours...
it does not look right to me.
On a 3M plant I would think a 6-figure number for a complete refit or refurbishment. less than 500k if it had been defunct for any period of time.
Painting should be about 10% of the total to commission/ test the plant. And painting is the least important thing that needs to be done.
Originally costing 3M, and they spent 130k on it? and 24k to fix it up. Something is missing. Does not seem right. I don't understand. If it was in disrepair, I would have thought they would have done more than paint it, and would have had to invest more cash. And I would have thought the land value was more.... It seems artificially low, but that does not benefit anybody.
In the last financials they said they repaired a few gaskets, etc... and painted. The number (24k) would be appropriate for painting... which is unnecesary for an operating plant but makes it look nice and "shiny".
I just noticed something. The caption in the photo said that the blending site will house the first processor in Canada. So, one must assume that it is intended that the blending site process P2O fuel output from an on-site processor... whoa...
That means that since the first 3 processors are intended for the NY location, the blending site is intended to receive the 4th or later processor, which will definitely not be until next year, likely the mid part of the year... it will be a long time before we get revenues from the blending site..
am I missing something?
unless of course they just blend other stuff with it..
if you say so.....
I think my wording is fine. I just tried to look up how much they have spent on the blending plant and how much they bought it for. I was looking for red flags. I only found a Yellow Caution signal and a bunch of construction boots. I wonder what that means? who knows...
no seriously they spent $24k on fixing up the blending plant and I don't know how much they paid for it.
My concerns if I were an investor would be:
- that it was not an "arms-length" transaction. I just bought my friend's Honda Civic for $250 and it is still solid. That was not an arms-length transaction. He did me a huge favor. I don't know what JBI paid for it, but maybe the owners wanted to sell it and got a good price...
- that the money spent on the blending plant was much-needed cash that may prove vital to their survival. From the last 10Q, the Run Rate is 1M/quarter. They had 2M cash in the bank in June. And they won't start producing until next year? If he spent money he did not have on that blending plan and can't get P2O up and running, investors are hosed (that is a Canadian term). And JB is a "hoser". Again.
- that the money spent on refurbishing the plant was a waste. Then again, it is only 24k according to financials.... I thought maybe that would represent a whole bunch of maintenance done that could be used to inflate financials for a few years (not spending on maintenance).
By the way, when I worked at that industrial gases company I noticed that all of our facilities were really rusty. I actually asked why they were not painted... truth was.. no one cared. But we made sure that the equipment was in good order... the fact that that plant is all nice and shiny means.... squat.
Good questions. They are also very obvious questions. And, no one really knows the answers. There is alot of positive sentiment on this board, but the bottom line is that no one really knows.
It has been asserted here that the output can always be sold to a refinery. I personally do not believe that, but I can't disprove it either. It has also been asserted that sending the output to the blending plant is the smarter thing to do because you can get EVEN MORE money for the output. I believe that, but question the value because of the extra cost. I say if he can sell to a refinery he should just do it.
I find it suspicious that JB's relatives used to own the blending plant, work there, and are therefore benefiting from the massive overhaul of the plant that has been performed (supposedly) for p2O. I have noted that the blending plant is not reliant on the P2O plant being in operation, in fact we now have a completely retrofitted blending plant that could be used in a variety of ways (benefitting JB family members).
JB has no buyer for his end product to anyone's knowledge in terms of something solid like a contract. It is speculated that selling the output will be EASY.
That place was Summerside Refinery, which was touted to have offered WTI-2. It is no more....
go for it.... i have been saying the same thing for about a year.
OIC?
permit = nothing, only maybe a .10 volume bounce like when the emissions came out. Media = nonexistent because they have no money with which to launch a campaign, and it would not matter much anyway.
And you are the only person I know that attaches a stock price to "revenues". Most people think in terms of "profits". It is unlikely they will be immediately profitable.
aren't you in a hurry for the permit? I can't understand why you would not be. I am not an investor, so i really have no skin in the game. Isn't it true that as soon as he gets that permit he can ship fuel to paying customers? And they are burning cash at $1M/quarter if I am not mistaken, or is it per month?
When I worked on similar projects, there was a "drop-dead" date that we had to meet to have the project "on-stream" (delivering product). Usually there was some contractual commitment demanding it. But the permit was really a detail that had to be looked after, it was not something that was aloowed to impact success.
It appears that in this endeavor it is a major obstacle. It shouldn't be... I can't help but think that there will only be more obstacles.
Easy for you to say, being self-employed. I am self-employed, but from a practical standpoint I do the same thing as an employee, and yes in most circumstances I find fault with the employer.
I might add, historically the United States has had a lower unemployment rate than Canada. It is not as much of a part of your culture as it is ours.
However... that is changing... ISN't IT? pretty soon the Canadian dollar will "annihlate" the greenback. And what is your unemployment rate these days?
I would think that there would need to be discussion (before a stack test) about what standards were necessary to be met, etc., but not any discussion on the language of the application itself... this could have been done beforehand IMO. This is a waste of time, there should be no need for negotiation...
Permit language is a ridiculous thing to have a meeting on, and should have been waiting on results in the first place.
agreed, but that the President's of Pak-it and Javaco, along with 2 or 3 BOD members, as well as the M&A guy, make for a mass exodus.
"APPLICATION DEVELOPMENT"? never heard of the term. Did you just make that up now? that is ridiculous.... they should have had this all ready before now.... they either screwed it up or it is a deliberate creation to give the illusion of activity.
you are making this up as you go (similar to JB). This is yet another screwup by JBI. This permit should have been dead simple. Any organization (or someone working in an organization ) knows that multitasking is critical. They could have been having these discussions ongoing since this started. All they should have had to do was get the stack test done, then the permit should have followed within weeks and they should be up and running.
Anybody running a project in the private sector that did this would be summarily fired....
never mattered in the first place...
Well, Dave hackensack used email to bug the DEC, what is the difference?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=55556673
But we would really like to call him instead:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=54300748&txt2find=Larry|Sitzman
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=53688210&txt2find=Larry|Sitzman
and by jiminy, here is his number!!
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=54106343&txt2find=Larry|Sitzman
and for those who can't spell:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=53685233
But we don't stop there:
bugging the EPA:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=53459777&txt2find=212
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=53693552&txt2find=Larry|Sitzman
harassing the exchange reps:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=53830968&txt2find=212
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=53180165&txt2find=212
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=53178040&txt2find=212
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=53169311&txt2find=212
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=53169306&txt2find=212
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=53169056&txt2find=212
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=53168804&txt2find=212
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=53167976&txt2find=212
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=53118777&txt2find=212
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=51887957&txt2find=212
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=48718568&txt2find=212
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=46982143&txt2find=212
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=45719806&txt2find=212
let's bug a whole bunch of lawyers:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=51163666&txt2find=212
Musn't forget about patents:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=49767406&txt2find=212
Finally: contact the media!!
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=45272911&txt2find=212
we should all stop bothering the DEC then.
I think that JB is simply growing up and realizing that communication via FB is inappropriate for communication by a CEO for a whole number of reasons. These supposed phone calls to MIT and suppliers should not cause him a problem if his relationships with them were on a good footing.
Furthermore, members of this board have probably made more harassing and damaging calls to the DEC than anybody else. Let them do their jobs.
The overhead that I have seen is all associated with the costs of the employee. (Vacation, Fringe, Computer, desk space, Building costs, that kind of thing)
For the purpose of this you have:
- the necessary Profitability from the operation (not just revenues) of 800k/year for the initial site, plus Direct Labour and Materials.
- Materials would be the catalyst, feedstock, plu svarious other things.
- Labour is the $100/hour. I have never said that his actual cost will be $100/hour, it is just a representative figure. That would be the cost for engineers/ management. His cost may be a bit less if he has lesser-qualified people, but not alot less. I would believe $60-80. THese are not people whose only concern is keeping a hopper full... these are people responsible for managing safety and making sure this does not happen:
http://en.wikinews.org/wiki/Massive_explosion_in_North_Toronto,_Ontario
His exact words were:
"We have discussed many other pyrolis units with applicants and may have even received a few permit applications but none in our area have installed and operated equipment. "
and you say that means they have "failed miserably"? that is not what the gentleman said. They just did not proceed... what is the big deal?
Nobel Peace prize? are we being serious here? LOL..