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The Peak Oil Crisis: Turning Points
By Tom Whipple
Thursday, 12 October 2006
From a peak oil perspective, the last couple of weeks seemed pretty quiet. Oil prices continued to drift down into the $50s amid gloats from peak oil skeptics. The Dow Jones climbed to all-time highs, in part, due to optimism the "oil bubble" had finally burst and there would be lower inflation and lower interest rates ahead. Alaskan oil production returned to normal levels and financial analysts spoke enthusiastically about the "new frontier" of deep-water oil. The geopolitical world was quiet. Iran, Lebanon, Nigeria, and Venezuela— everywhere one looked there were no imminent threats to oil supplies.
Even the SUV dealers were in a better mood with commercials prattling on about the end of high oil prices and the great deals could that could be had.
However, events move quickly these days and during the last couple of weeks there were a number of new developments that may, in the long run, turn out to be more detrimental to our future well-being than we have yet perceived. Some of these developments took place well below the radar of the popular media. Others were well reported, but it will be awhile before their import sinks in.
Currently, the most important oil story is the impending OPEC production cut of 1 million barrels a day (b/d). This plan, however, has been in the works for the last two weeks without an official announcement, thus leading to suggestions that OPEC cannot reach an actual agreement on a production cut. Several OPEC members —Iran, Venezuela, Indonesia, and Nigeria— are already producing well below their quotas. As these countries are straining to maintain production, many doubt they would actually cut exports by an amount necessary to drive up prices.
Other OPEC members are currently above their quotas and could easily afford some temporary revenue loss. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE, however, are highly dependent on the US for their security in a very dangerous part of the world. Washington is adamantly opposed to OPEC cutting production at this time as higher gas prices is the last thing the Administration wants to see prior to the mid-term elections.
Thus, current efforts at a quota cut may or may not result in actual production cutbacks and higher prices, at least for the next month. What is interesting in all this is that there seems to be the beginnings of a consensus within OPEC that $60 a barrel is the new price floor to be defended by quota cuts. There are, however, major implications of a $60 a barrel price floor on oil. While $60 oil may sound great to Americans, prices like this effectively make petroleum products unaffordable in many poorer countries. For people living in these countries, the oil age is nearly over.
The next big development on the horizon with potential to damage Middle East oil exports is still Iranian nuclear enrichment. The sanctioning Iran situation was further complicated earlier this week when the North Koreans detonated their first nuclear bomb. This unwelcome test naturally got nearly every country in the world, especially China, very upset. The UN Security Council is thrashing around trying to get an agreement on just how badly it can punish Pyongyang short of going to war.
Last week, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany met in London and agreed in principle to sanction Iran. In the wake of the North Korean nuclear test, Russia and China, which previously have appeared more interested in maintaining good trade relations with Teheran than in thwarting Iranian nuclear ambitions, may come to look at the situation in a new light. In the meantime, Tehran continues to warn that sanctions will lead to dire consequences.
Something about the Iraqi situation is bound to change soon. As chaos and casualties steadily increase, there seems no future other than all out civil war. In recent days, however, the voices in the US calling for a change are becoming louder and recent polls are suggesting that the Bush Administration could face a major defeat over Iraq in next month's elections.
The Iraqis are currently producing about 2 million barrels of oil a day, down from 2.2 million in August. It is increasing difficult to believe that Baghdad will be able to produce such quantities of oil much longer. If the government should collapse completely, then the US and her allies would be faced with very difficult choices: soldier on amidst greatly increased chaos for years or decades; abandon the cities to sectarian slaughter; pull out of the cities and defend only the Iraqi oil fields; pull back to defend Kuwait, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia from the on slot of refugees and sectarian fighters.
None of these prospects bode well for oil exports from the region. At a minimum, it is difficult to believe that Iraq will be exporting much oil a year or so down the line. In the best case, only Iraqi oil production goes. In the worst case, a wider sectarian conflict involves more countries and more oil production. It is hard to be optimistic.
Our final development is the marked increase in Russia's efforts to keep the International Oil Companies out of its projects. Not only has Moscow halted Shell's work on the Sakhalin-2 project, it has also severely restricted Exxon's planned production from Sakalin-1. Now Moscow has announced that it will develop the massive Shtokman natural gas field by itself.
All of these are technically difficult and expensive projects. While there is little doubt the Russians can ultimately bring them into production, there will likely be lengthy delays. The Sakhalin projects are to produce major amounts of oil for the Asian market, while Shtokman was to supply large quantities to LNG to the US in the next decade. Neither of these appears to be good prospects to produce as much or as soon as was planned.
While we have been enjoying $2 gasoline and new highs on Wall Street this fall, there have been forces at work that make the future, perhaps the immediate future, look a lot less bright.
Total888,
I'm in PLE, LRG, GML, and NVT.
These may or may not have some Aurelian characteristics. We never know when to take some profits for fear that the stock might take off.
Finally a few week's ago, I sold 20,000 shares of LRG, pocketed some good profits, and then bought back 5,000 shares to reach one-half of my former position.
You know what, I should have sold every one of these stocks on a spike and then bought back in. Easy to look back now that they acted this way. But the stock market consists of two parties: investors for the long term and traders for a short term profit.
In summary, for every penny stock I hold, I will be taking part of the position and sell for profit. I will be an investor and a trader. Maybe it's good to wear two hats.
I really don't know too much about PLE, especially its management.
Long term, I hope to make profits in gold, and then reinvest the profits in energy stocks. My favorites are listed under my profile, but WHD and DJE are great buys at these levels.
Hope this has helped you,
sumisu
Great Panther Finds Higher Gold With Depth at Topia Mine
Thursday October 12, 11:10 am ET
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(MARKET WIRE)--Oct 12, 2006 -- GREAT PANTHER RESOURCES LIMITED (TSX VENTURE:GPR.V - News) is pleased to announce that the ongoing westward development of veins at the Company's 100% owned Topia Silver-Lead-Zinc Mine in Durango, Mexico is not only continuing to demonstrate high grades of silver-lead-zinc but new underground sampling has shown that the deeper portions of the Madre, La Dura, and Animas veins are increasingly gold rich.
For example, systematic sampling on the deeper portions of the Animas vein returned the following results (mine levels are named according to their elevation above mean sea level; therefore level 1380 is 50 metres below level 1430):
Level 1430: 1.47g/t Au, 186g/t Ag, 2.02% Pb, 4.43% Zn over 25 metres strike length with an average width of 0.19m (average of 5 channel samples).
Level 1420: 3.03g/t Au, 878g/t Ag, 3.19% Pb, 2.74% Zn over 38 metres strike length with an average width of 0.32m (average of 13 channel samples).
Level 1400: 5.08g/t Au, 679g/t Ag, 7.07% Pb, 6.32% Zn over 45 metres strike length with an average width of 0.42m (average of 16 channel samples).
Level 1390: 6.84g/t Au, 279g/t Ag, 2.17% Pb, 0.19% Zn over 15 metres strike length with an average width of 0.5m (average of 4 channel samples).
Level 1380: 5.92g/t Au, 304g/t Ag, 4.35% Pb, 12.72% Zn over 10 metres strike length with an average width of 0.45m (average of 3 channel samples).
Although vein widths are narrow in this part of the district, the Company is continuing to use a resuing method of mining that significantly reduces dilution, such that the grades reported from sampling are very close to head grades reported at the plant. The increase in gold grades in some of these veins will obviously enhance the economics of their development, particularly as historical gold grades at Topia have averaged less than 1.0g/t.
In addition, many of the sampled sections reported above represent the complete length of the current exposure, so the potential to extend the development of these veins is wide open. The deeper levels of the Animas vein are virtually untouched over a strike length of 1,000m and will be drill tested over the next six months.
Elsewhere along the Animas vein, on Level 1550, underground channel sampling returned 1.62g/t Au, 338g/t Ag, 2.28% Pb, 1.53% Zn over 30 metres strike length, with an average width of 0.31m (average of 16 samples); and 1.4g/t Au, 429g/t Ag, 1.14% Pb, 6.23% Zn over 35 metres strike length, with an average width of 0.55m (average of 11 samples).
Along the La Dura vein, mine development on level 1495, returned 4.96g/t Au, 242g/t Ag, 8.32% Pb and 2.42% Zn over 38 metres strike length with an average width of 0.49m (average grade of 16 samples). Exploration potential exists above Level 1495 for approximately 150 metres vertical as this part of the La Dura vein was not previously developed.
The deepest access level on the Madre vein is the 1420 level where sampling returned average grades of 5.7g/t Au, 49g/t Ag, 0.17% Pb, 0.18% Zn over a horizontal length of 45 metres and an average width of 0.32m (average grade of 12 samples). Further sampling is being completed with the recent cleaning and safety inspection of this level.
Analysis of the aforementioned underground channel samples was performed by SGS Minerals Services, ISO 9001 Registered, in their Durango, Mexico facilities.
Immediately behind the plant, a decline ramp from the main access adit, Level 'A', has intersected the western edge of previous stoping on the Argentina vein. This is the top priority area for development and exploitation due to its proximity to the mill and the presence of multiple parallel, thick and high grade silver-lead-zinc veins. A cross-cut from the ramp intersected the main vein wherein 3 channel samples returned grades of 2,060 - 2,640 g/t Ag and 29 - 36% combined Pb-Zn over 1.0 metre. The vein in the end of the westernmost stope is still approximately 1.0 metre wide and consists of quartz-barite with bands of galena and sphalerite (sampling in progress). The distance from here to the closest surface drill hole (A04-02 from Great Panther's 2004 program that returned grades of 708g/t Ag, 4.0% Pb and 4.2% Zn over 1.8 metres) is approximately 300 metres, part of which contains former reserve blocks of Penoles (now classified as Historical Resources). This represents a large block of potential high grade resources and will be targeted by the underground drill program.
Production from the Argentina vein is anticipated to begin in Q1 2007 and will build as the veins are developed on multiple levels, allowing the Company to achieve its production targets next year.
With so many prospective areas under development, underground drilling has already commenced and a surface diamond drill is being mobilized to the property for a 6,000 metre (minimum) program. Both drilling rigs have been contracted from BDW Drilling of Guadalajara, Mexico.
More than a dozen sub-parallel veins are known to exist at Topia and some extend for more than 4 kilometres along strike. Great Panther is currently producing from 6 stopes in the western area of the district and development is underway in 20 additional areas throughout the vein complex. All are accessed via adits (tunnels) from the side of the hills and are collectively feeding approximately 120 tonnes per day to the plant. The Company has set a production target of 200 tonnes per day by the end of the year.
With the increased development at Topia, Wardrop Engineering of Vancouver, B.C. has been contracted to complete a preliminary independent resource calculation following NI43-101 regulations. The Wardrop team will be headed by Gilles Arseneau, former manager of geology for the TSX Venture Exchange.
Aspects of the Topia Mine relating to mining and metallurgy are overseen by Ing. Francisco Ramos Sanchez, Vice-President of Operations for Great Panther and its wholly owned Mexican subsidiary, Minera Mexicana El Rosario, S.A. de C.V. (MMR). Robert F. Brown, P.Eng. and Vice-President of Exploration for Great Panther and MMR is designated as the Qualified Person for the Topia Mine Project under the meaning of NI 43-101, and has reviewed this news release.
ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD
Robert A. Archer, President & CEO
This news release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and forward-looking information within the meaning of the Securities Act (Ontario) (together, "forward-looking statements"). Such forward-looking statements may include but are not limited to the Company's plans for production at its Guanajuato and Topia Mines in Mexico, exploring its other properties in Mexico, the overall economic potential of its properties, the availability of adequate financing and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements to be materially different. Such factors include, among others, risks and uncertainties relating to potential political risks involving the Company's operations in a foreign jurisdiction, uncertainty of production and cost estimates and the potential for unexpected costs and expenses, physical risks inherent in mining operations, currency fluctuations, fluctuations in the price of silver, gold and base metals, completion of economic evaluations, changes in project parametres as plans continue to be refined, the inability or failure to obtain adequate financing on a timely basis, and other risks and uncertainties, including those described in the Company's Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2004 and reports on Form 6-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and available at www.sec.gov and Material Change Reports filed with the Canadian Securities Administrators and available at www.sedar.com.
TSX-V Tier 1; Trading Symbol: GPR
SEC 20-F Statement Filed
Standard & Poor's Listed
The TSX Venture Exchange does not accept responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.
Contact:
Contacts:
Great Panther Resources Limited
Brad Aelicks
(604) 685-6465
Great Panther Resources Limited
Don Mosher
(604) 685-6465
(604) 685-9744 (FAX)
Email: info@greatpanther.com
Website: http://www.greatpanther.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Great Panther Resources Limited
Cicero,
I never traded in warrants, but I did look up your question.
See the following link:
http://www.silverwheaton.com/stocks_and_warrants/
It appears to me that you would have to buy warrants from any brokerage firm but the transaction would have to go through the Toronto Stock Exchange.
I hope this link is helpful to you.
sumisu
PS When I get a chance, I will contact Scottrade to check my interpretation and the procedure.
Sector Wrap: Shares of Coal Miners Climb
Tuesday October 10, 4:22 pm ET
Coal Mining Companies Rise As Investors Sense a Bargain, Shift in Supply and Demand Imbalance
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of coal mining stocks rose Tuesday as investors smelled a bargain and production cuts hinted at lightening of the current supply and demand imbalance.
Shares of Consol Energy Inc. climbed $2.11, or 7 percent, to close at $32.49 on the New York Stock Exchange. Also on the NYSE, Massey Energy Co. gained $2, or 9.6 percent, to end at $22.83, while Arch Coal Inc. added $2.14, or 7.6 percent, at $30.32.
Shares of International Coal Group Inc. advanced 19 cents, or 4.4 percent, to close at $4.52 on the Big Board. Alpha Natural Resources rose 45 cents, or 3 percent, to finish the session at $15.99 on the NYSE.
The activity came on the same day that Consol Energy Inc. said third-quarter coal production fell short of expectations by about 1.3 million tons in the mid-range, and that it lowered its full-year production outlook by about 1 million tons in the mid-range. The company blamed geological conditions, which is a relatively common stumbling block in production.
Consol Energy's production revision came just a couple of weeks after Massey Energy and International Coal said they would idle some mines because of soft coal prices, rising costs and high inventories.
Paul Forward, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus & Co., said investors were rewarding the companies for prudently managing their inventories, but they might also be looking forward to when supply levels fall in line with demand.
Since peaking on May 10, the average share price for the big six coal miners has shed more than 40 percent, he said. And with supply levels where they are now, Forward said the situation looks a lot like the recession days of 2001, when production cutbacks caused a spike in demand in 2003, 2004 and 2005.
"That was an awfully good time to be an investor in coal stocks," Forward said. "Perhaps investors are willing to sacrifice some near-term earnings today for a similar payoff in the long term."
Forward also observed that coal stocks might be benefiting from eight consecutive sessions of rising prices in natural gas, which is coal's chief competitor, as well as colder weather on the horizon.
But a research note from analyst John Bridges at JP Morgan Securities also alluded to the possibility of further merger and acquisition activity at Arch Coal.
"We feel that with private equity seeking targets and the large diversified mining companies being cash rich and looking for assets, there is some potential for the restored and refinanced Arch to attract possible M&A interest around current levels," Bridges said in the note.
Peabody Energy Corp. on Tuesday received clearance from Australian regulators for its acquisition of Sydney-based Excel Coal Ltd. for about $1.5 billion. Shares of Peabody Energy rose $2.11, or 5.6 percent, to close at $39.88 on the NYSE.
North Korea: Why Such a Muted Response in the Markets?
By Stephen Clayson
10 Oct 2006 at 11:58 AM EDT
LONDON (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Contrary to the previously stated expectations of many, the news that North Korea has tested a nuclear weapon for the first time was dismissed by the markets with barely a blip registering on investors’ screens. Gold got fired up in a minor way for a few hours, but certainly had no inclination to power its way back above $600 an ounce. Have investors become inured to ostensibly negative geopolitical events?
There is probably an element of acclimatisation to a post-Cold War geopolitical environment where events like major terrorist strikes and provocations from pariah states have become more commonplace, but this isn’t the whole story. If it had been Iran that had tested a nuclear weapon, then the markets would probably have been much more alarmed.
So, part of what explains the calm reception of North Korea’s test is that is a much less serious development than it appears at first glance. Most would judge that North Korea has little desire to actually wage nuclear war; rather, it wants a bargaining chip to help secure concessions from South Korea and from the United States. Also, North Korea has claimed for some years to have nuclear weapons, so the test only confirms what was already suspected.
No rational individual really subscribes to George W. Bush’s assertion that North Korea belongs on an ‘axis of evil’ along with Iran and pre-war Iraq. The North Korean regime is without doubt a disagreeable one in many respects, but that, along with being disliked by successive U.S. governments, is as far as the commonality goes.
In fact, if the U.S. were to consent to formally ending the Korean War, then relations between North Korea and the rest of the world might become much warmer and the nuclear issue might prove amenable to solution, but there seems to be scant chance of such a move at the moment.
The U.S. expects concessions from North Korea prior to agreeing to formally end the war, but the North Korean regime feels unsafe making the first move towards détente thanks to its intense mistrust of the U.S. The result is a vicious circle of increasing antipathy that needs to be decisively broken.
The markets should of course be keeping an eye on the situation on the Korean peninsula, as the effects of a nuclear war in the heart of one of the world’s most dynamic economic areas are chilling to consider, and could conceivably result in a global recession. The only comforting factor is that such a scenario is very unlikely to come to pass.
That is the difference between North Korea and Iran in this context; an Iranian nuclear weapon would be much more likely to be used, given the extreme political fragility of the Middle East and Iran’s central place within it.
Gold’s indifference to North Korea’s brinkmanship must also be partly down to the prior softness of the market. If gold investors had been in a more excitable mood then maybe the North Korean test would have seemed more unsettling. But as it is, they are still waiting for a fundamental development, most likely pertaining to the future parity of the dollar, to reenergise the market.
Oil Analysts Raise 2007 Forecasts as Demand May Outpace Supply
By Mark Shenk
Oct. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Oil analysts are raising their price estimates for next year in anticipation of increased demand that may outpace the development of new deposits.
Crude oil will average $64 a barrel in New York in 2007, according to the median forecast of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News last week. That's $2 higher than predicted at the end of the second quarter. Analysts failed to predict the rise in oil throughout a five-year rally during which prices tripled.
``We see a very tight market continuing into next year,' said Kevin Norrish, a director of commodities research for Barclays Capital in London. Barclays expects oil next year to average $76.70 a barrel, the highest forecast in the survey.
``The recent fall in prices is due to short-term factors,' he said in an interview. ``We're looking for fairly strong global growth, and we don't see capacity expanding by much.'
Benchmark oil futures touched a record $78.40 a barrel July 14 on the New York Mercantile Exchange on concern that fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon would spread through the Middle East, the source of almost a third of the world's oil. Prices fell after fighting ended in Lebanon and the Gulf of Mexico storm season passed without a repeat of last year's hurricanes, which crippled oil production and refineries. New York crude ended yesterday at $61.03 a barrel.
Oil's climb from less than $20 a barrel at the end of 2001 has been driven by the failure of producers to generate new supplies fast enough to keep pace with rising demand, especially in China. Analysts are betting that trend will continue.
They forecast that oil would be $58 a barrel at the start of 2006, according to the median in Bloomberg's survey last December. So far, crude oil has averaged $68.26, higher than any prior year.
Supply Increases
``We just haven't seen dramatic increases in supply,' said James Rollyson, an analyst at Raymond James Financial Inc. in Houston. Raymond James is predicting $70 oil next year after forecasting $58 at the beginning of this year.
Oil consumption worldwide climbed 9 percent to an average 83.8 million barrels a day between 2000 and 2005, led by China and the U.S., according to the U.S. Energy Department. Global oil supply rose 8.6 percent to 84.5 million barrels.
Prices surged during the first half as Iran, the fourth- largest oil producer, pushed ahead with nuclear fuel enrichment, heightening tensions with the U.S. Iran has the world's second- biggest proved oil reserves and borders the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which nearly a quarter of the world's oil is shipped.
Talks in Berlin between Iran and European Union officials aimed at breaking the deadlock over the atomic program produced some progress, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani said on Sept. 28.
``It's been relatively cool on the political front recently, but odds are this won't continue through next year,' said Rollyson at Raymond James.
Oil will average $65.50 a barrel in the fourth quarter, according to the median estimate in the survey. Analysts in June said oil would average $67.65 a barrel during the third quarter. Prices averaged $70.60 during the past three months, a record.
Economic Growth
Strategists who forecast a drop in prices next year say a slowing U.S. economy will coincide with increased output. U.S. economic growth slowed to a 2.6 percent pace in the second quarter, 3 percentage points lower than the first three months of the year, the Commerce Department said Sept. 28.
``We're very pessimistic about the U.S. and global economy next year,' said Eoin O'Callaghan, an analyst with BNP Paribas SA in London who expects oil to average $59.80 next year. ``The last four years, there's been limited spare capacity, making us sensitive to disruptions and geopolitical risk.'
Rising fuel stockpiles in the U.S., which is responsible for 25 percent of global energy use, helped cause the decline in prices in the third quarter.
Spot prices are cheaper than futures for oil delivered later in the year, a market condition called ``contango.' This has led to increased inventories, but it may end in coming months, said Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank Securities AG in New York. He expects oil to average $61 a barrel in 2007.
The average price for Brent crude, traded on the London- based ICE Futures exchange, is likely to be $61 a barrel in 2007, according to the median forecast.
To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: October 2, 2006 21:19 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aD2mdsplVneY&refer=home
Sugar Linked with Mental Problems in Norway Study
Reuters Sep 30, 2006
WASHINGTON—Oslo teens who drank the most sugary soft drinks also had more mental health problems such as hyperactivity and distress, Norwegian researchers reported Thursday.
Their study of more than 5,000 Norwegian 15- and 16-year-olds showed a clear and direct association between soft drink intake and hyperactivity, and a more complex link with other mental and behavioral disorders.
They surveyed the students, asking them how many fizzy soft drinks with sugar they had a day, and then questions from a standard questionnaire used to assess mental health.
The teens who reported skipping breakfast and lunch were among the heaviest soft drink consumers, Dr. Lars Lien and colleagues at the University of Oslo found.
"There was a strong association between soft drink consumption and mental health problems among Oslo 10th graders," they wrote in their report, published in the American Journal of Public Health.
"This association remained significant after adjustment for social, behavioral and food-related disorders."
Most of the students said they drank anywhere between one and six servings of soft drinks per week.
Those who drank no soft drinks at all were more likely than moderate drinkers to have mental health symptoms, the researchers said. But those who drank the most—more than six servings a week—had the highest scores.
For hyperactivity, there was a direct linear relationship—the more sodas a teen drank, the most symptoms of hyperactivity he or she had.
The worst problems were seen in boys and girls who drank four or more soft drinks a day. Ten percent of the boys and 2 percent of the girls drank this much.
The researchers said it was possible that other substances in the soft drinks, such as caffeine, were to blame for the symptoms, and they did not check other possible sources of refined sugar in the children's diets.
But they said many of the teens were clearly drinking too many sugary drinks. Norway's recommended intake is 10 percent of the day's total calories from sugar and the researchers said at least a quarter of the boys were getting this much from soft drinks alone.
"One simple and effective measure to reduce soft drink consumption in this age group would be to remove soft drink machines from schools and other public places where adolescents gather," they wrote.
OPEC to Make First Oil Output Cut Since 2004
Reuters Oct 05, 2006
(Tatyana Makeyeva/AFP/Getty Images)
DUBAI—OPEC will take one million barrels of oil a day off oversupplied world markets as soon as possible with its first output cut in more than two years, OPEC officials said on Thursday, sending oil prices back above $60.
The world's biggest oil exporter Saudi Arabia will shoulder most of the burden as OPEC moves to address a 23 percent drop in prices since July 14 and fuel stocks at a 7-year high in top consumer the United States, a senior OPEC delegate told Reuters.
The organization that pumps over a third of the world's oil will curb supplies by just over 3 percent. It may make deeper cuts at its meeting on Dec. 14 in Abuja, another official said.
"The goal now is to cut actual oil production by 1 million barrels daily as soon as possible but the exact date is still being worked out," the senior OPEC delegate told Reuters.
The United States was dismayed by the news. Energy Secretary Sam Bodman said he would tell OPEC ministers the world still needed all the oil OPEC could pump heading into winter. He said $60 a barrel oil was profitable for producers.
"We still need oil for sure. We still need all the oil we can get," Bodman told Reuters in a telephone interview.
Nine OPEC countries will take part in the supply curbs and will cut their "fair share" from overall OPEC production, the senior delegate said. OPEC pumped 29.47 million bpd in September, according to a Reuters survey.
Only Iraq, exempt from quotas, and Indonesia, a net importer, will not participate, he added. All of this could pave the way for a realignment of OPEC quotas, and tricky negotiations, at OPEC's December meeting.
OPEC President Edmund Daukoru declined to be drawn on the scale of planned cuts but said a reduction of 1 million barrels per day would be in line with market fundamentals.
Saudi Arabia Leads Way
Saudi Arabia will reduce its production by 300,000 bpd from September's 9.1 million bpd, the delegate said, taking the kingdom's production to its lowest since May 2004. The news contradicts a Financial Times report that Saudi Arabia, OPEC's most influential member, was opposed to curbing supplies.
This will be OPEC's first output cut since April 2004.
The group last changed its ceiling in July 2005 with a 500,000 bpd increase in response to rising demand from the United States and China's fast-growing economy and a seemingly relentless rise in the price of oil.
But the situation has changed in recent months with a stumbling U.S. economy and a rapid descent in the U.S. oil price from its $78.40 peak in mid-July.
OPEC delegates said the organization's primary concern was the high level of global fuel stocks.
"OPEC is closely watching developments in oil markets, especially crude stocks, which we've seen rising gradually. This might create further pressure in the market," the delegate said.
"OPEC is concerned about prices but the most important thing they are concentrating on are inventory levels."
Analysts have expected OPEC to cut output for some time, especially after Nigeria, which holds the OPEC presidency, and Venezuela said last week they were making unilateral reductions.
Kuwait, one of OPEC's core Gulf members, added impetus on Wednesday by stating its readiness to join in the reductions if necessary.
"The marketing departments of these countries are finding it difficult to move their oil. And high global inventories are of grave concern," said Gary Ross of New York's PIRA Energy.
"At the end of the day, OPEC members are trying to protect their revenue and, in turn, the oil price."
OPEC will have plenty of time to measure the impact of its action before its next ministerial meeting in Abuja on Dec. 14.
U.S. oil rallied on the OPEC news, hitting $60.97 a barrel, up nearly $1.56, at one point. At 1455 GMT it stood at $60.14. Oil prices have tripled since the start of 2002.
Hello Rhubarb,
Welcome to I-Hub! By the way, I just member marked you, as well.
Yesterday I noticed the trading halt and then was shocked to see the volume later in the day. Coincidentally, Americo sold at a lower price than I did, but my sale was earlier in the year.
But after the national elections in Peru, I reentered Chariot for good. My position is 15,000 shares compared to my original position of 25,000 shares, but part of my shares are now free. So I will stick with the risk in hope that the rich copper deposits will make us rich too. To sum things up, I luv Chariot too.
I'm patiently waiting for the mid term elections to take place. My portfolio is hurting, but this is just a transitory thing. I will definitely go broke, if the world no longer needs energy and if the United States erases all of its debt problems, public, private, and overseas. In other words, I think that I'm well positioned for the long haul.
You might see from the profile that I'm a believer in Peak Oil. I'm added some penny investments in energy, WHD.V and DJE.V, both great buys at these prices, imo. I will be adding about four more energy stocks and I will list them in my profile, once they hit my portfolio.
If you're in a cash position, this "shoulder" period between peak summer gas demand for driving and peak winter oil need for heating is the time to buy.
Good luck with Chariot and your other investments.
sumisu
PS Interestingly, I'm thinking of planting rhubarb in a new garden that I'm planning. It's a perennial crop and will eventually add to my dinner plate for year's to come. I need to find some recipes for it.
Economics: Hallucinated Wealth - John Michael Greer
Published on 05 Oct 2006 by The Archdruid Report
Fourth part of a nine-part series
As last week’s Archdruid Report post argued, prophecies of catastrophe don’t accurately reflect the economic terrain on the downslope of Hubbert’s peak. Mind you, the reassuring fictions of those who insist that business as usual will go on forever won’t fare any better. I’ve suggested that the future we face is an age of economic, social, and technological decline as industrial civilization slides down the long and bumpy slope to the agrarian societies of the deindustrial future. The economic dimension of that decline is crucial, but those who expect it to show up in obvious ways in the markets and crunched numbers of today’s official economics may be missing a central facet of what’s going on.
I have no idea if kids still do this, but in my elementary school days in the late 1960s it was common practice to write IOUs for “a million billion trillion dollars” or some equally precise sum, and use those as the stakes in card games like Old Maid and Go Fish. Some of those IOUs passed from hand to hand dozens of times before being accidentally left in a pocket and meeting their fate in the wash. Kids who were good card players amassed portfolios with a very impressive face value, especially compared to the 25 cents a week that was the standard allowance in my neighborhood just then. If I recall correctly, though, nobody ever tried to convert their IOU holdings into anything more substantial than cookies from a classmate’s lunchbox, and that’s apparently the one thing that kept me and my friends from becoming pioneers of modern finance.
It surprises me how many people still seem to think that the main business of a modern economy is the production and distribution of goods and services. In point of fact, far and away the majority of economic activity today consists of the production and exchange of IOUs. The United States has the world’s largest economy not because it produces more goods and services than anyone else – it doesn’t, not by a long shot – but because it produces more IOUs than anyone else, and sells those IOUs to the rest of the world in exchange for goods and services.
An IOU, after all, is simply a promise to pay a given amount of value at some future time. That describes nearly every instrument of exchange in today’s economy, from bonds and treasury bills through bank deposits and government-issued currency to credit swaps and derivatives. All these share three things in common with the IOUs my schoolmates staked on card games. First, they cost almost nothing to issue. Second, their face value needn’t have any relationship at all to the issuer’s ability to pay up. Third, they can be exchanged for goods and services – like the cookies in my example – but their main role is in exchanges where nothing passes from hand to hand except IOUs.
It’s harsh but not, I think, unfair to call the result an economy of hallucinated wealth. Like the face value of those schoolroom IOUs, most “wealth” nowadays exists only because everyone agrees it does. Outside the social game of the market economy, financial instruments have no value at all, and the game continues only because the players – all of them, from the very rich to the ones with scarcely a million billion trillion dollars to their name – keep playing. They have to keep playing, because access to goods and services, not to mention privilege, perks, and power, depend on participation in the game.
The resulting IOU economy is highly unstable, because hallucinated wealth has value only as long as people believe it does. The history of modern economics is thus a chronicle of booms and busts, as tidal shifts in opinion send various classes of IOUs zooming up in value and then crashing back down to earth. Crashes, far from being signs of breakdown, are a necessary and normal part of the process. They serve the same role as laundry day did in the schoolroom IOU economy, paring down the total number of IOUs when an excess emerges, and thus maintaining the fiction that the ones left still have value.
All this leaves us in a historically unprecedented situation. Economies based purely on hallucinated wealth existed before the 20th century, but only for brief periods in the midst of speculative frenzies – the Dutch tulip mania, the South Sea bubble, and so on. Today’s hallucinated wealth, by contrast, has maintained its place as the mainspring of the global economy for more than half a century. Social critics who point to the housing bubble, the derivatives bubble, or the like, and predict imminent disaster when these bubbles pop, are missing the wider picture: the great majority of the global economy rests on the same foundations of empty air.
Those who have noticed this wider picture, on the other hand, are fond of suggesting that sometime soon, given a suitable shock, the entire structure will come cascading down. Those of you who were reading the alternative press at the time of the 1987 stock market crash will recall predictions of economic collapse in the wake of that vertiginous plunge. Similar predictions have accompanied each of the notable fiscal crises since then – the Japanese stock market debacle of 1990, the Mexican debt crisis of 1995, the Asian currency crash of 1998, the tech-stock crash of 2000, and so on. Similar claims are now being made about the housing bubble, the US trade and credit deficit, and of course about peak oil as well.
Plausible as these claims are, I suspect they’re missing the core of the situation, as well as the lessons taught by twenty years of violent economic gyrations. It’s a mistake to expect hallucinations to obey the laws of gravity. It’s doubly a mistake when the institutions charged with keeping them in midair – the Federal Reserve Board in the US and its equivalents elsewhere – have proven tolerably adept at manipulating markets, flooding the economy with cheap credit (that is, more IOUs) to minimize the effects of a crash, and inflating some other sector of the economy to take up the slack of a deflating bubble. It’s triply a mistake when the American middle class and, to a lesser extent, its equivalents in other industrial countries display a faith in speculation so invulnerable to mere reality that their response to a crash in one market is invariably to go looking for a new speculative bubble somewhere else.
To say that the economic empire of hallucinated wealth will continue to exist, though, does not imply that it will continue to produce the goods and services and provide the jobs that people need. Arguably, it doesn’t do that very well now. The “jobless recovery” of recent years saw most economic statistics rise well into positive territory, while most people saw their expenses rise and their income shrink when their jobs didn’t simply fold out from under them. Things could go much further in the same direction. It requires no particular suspension of disbelief to imagine a situation where the stock market hits new heights daily and other measures of economic activity remain in positive territory, while most of the population is starving in the streets.
Partly, as Bernard Gross pointed out several decades ago, economic indicators have morphed into “economic vindicators” that promote a political agenda rather than reflecting economic realities. The dubious statistical gamesmanship inflicted on the consumer price index and the official unemployment rate in the US show this with a good deal of clarity. Partly, though, most of the common measures of economic well-being only track hallucinated wealth, and the markets whose antics fill so much of the financial news are IOU markets disconnected from what remains of the real economy, where real people produce and consume real goods and services.
Thus trying to track the economic impact of peak oil, global warming, and other aspects of our predicament by watching markets and financial statistics may well turn out to be as misleading as trying to track the supply of cookies in a schoolroom by watching the exchange of IOUs in card games. As for the theory that a massive market crash triggered by peak oil will bring down the economy, this is, to be frank, naive. Crashes there will certainly be, and some of them may be monumental, since volatility in the energy markets tends to play crack-the-whip with the rest of the economy. Crashes aren’t threats to the system, though; crashes, and the recessions and economic turmoil that follow them, are part of the system.
The economy of markets and statistics has aptly been compared to a circus, and like any other circus, it serves mostly to distract. While interest rates wow the crowd with their high-wire act and clowns pile into and out of various speculative vehicles, the real story of economic decline will be going on elsewhere, in the non-hallucinated economy of goods and services, jobs and personal income, all but invisible behind a veil of massaged numbers and discreetly unmentioned by the mainstream media. There's good reason for that to be tucked out of sight, too, because it won't be pretty at all.
As the boom and bust cycle continues and accelerates, we can expect each recession to push more people down into poverty, and each recovery to lift fewer out of it. As industries dependent on cheap abundant energy fold, we’ll see jobs evaporate, lines form at the doors of soup kitchens, and today's posh suburbs slump into tomorrow’s shantytowns. Rising transport costs and sinking median incomes will squeeze the global trade in consumer goods until it implodes; shortages and ad hoc distribution networks will be the order of the day, and wild gyrations in currency markets could easily make barter and local scrip worth a good deal more than a million billion trillion dollars of hyperinflated IOU-money. Poverty, malnutrition, and desperation will be among the very few things not in short supply.
It’s not a pretty future, no, but there are straightforward ways to cope with it, proven in equivalent economic crises in recent history. I’ll be discussing some of those in next week’s post.
posted by John Michael Greer @ 12:41 PM 3
The Peak Oil Crisis: Election 2008
By Tom Whipple
Thursday, 05 October 2006
Last week they took a poll here in Virginia on how the race for US Senate was shaping up. The poll showed the candidates in a dead heat, but the issues section of the story caught my eye. Twenty-three percent said the most important issue was Iraq, followed by terrorism at 19 percent; the economy, 16 percent; health care, 10 percent; immigration, 9 percent; taxes, 9 percent; moral and family values, 8 percent; and dead last was gasoline prices and energy, 1 percent. So much for voter concern about gasoline prices.
A lot has happened since last winter when President Bush pronounced us addicted to oil and Congress was falling all over itself introducing bills to lower our gas prices and reduce our dependence on the Middle East. What a difference a 60-cent drop in the price of gasoline makes these days.
Unless there is a major disaster in the next few weeks, it is unlikely oil depletion will have much impact on the 2006 mid-term elections. People may have nagging doubts about dependence on foreign oil, but it is doubtful that many candidates are going out on the limb and starting to talk about conservation, sacrifice, life style changes and all that will come with peak oil. It’s too depressing and still a great way to lose an election. This is too bad because even if it turns out that we have the resources to make it through to a post oil-age world and into some semblance of life-as-we-know it, it is going to take 20 or more years of severe economic hardships. The sooner the debate begins, the better.
Since the 2006 election seems like a lost opportunity to debate oil depletion, what about 2008? From the vantage point of 25 months away, there is obviously much about the 2008 political landscape that, as yet, we haven't a clue. Which party will be controlling which house of Congress? What will the status of US involvement with Iraq and perhaps other Middle Eastern countries be? What will crude be selling for and what will be the price of gasoline? Where will the Dow-Jones be? Will the housing bubble have burst? Will it be obvious or murky that worldwide oil depletion has started or is near at hand?
There are, however, some parameters of 2008 that seem reasonably certain. On the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November we will be electing a new President of the United States. No matter how much oil is currently left in the ground, there will be 62 billion barrels less of it when we get around to voting. We can also be sure that US reliance on foreign oil and products, which is currently about 66 percent of our consumption, will increase a bit as US oil supplies continue to deplete.
The experience of the last year and the lesson of the poll referred to above is that voters will only be moved by high gas prices. All of the logical arguments, trend lines, statistics and speeches in the world won't persuade a critical mass that there is serious trouble ahead until it is driven home by the sign over the gas pumps.
From a geological standpoint, several of the world's largest exporters contributing significantly to US oil supplies are suspected of being in or very close to going into depletion. Mexico, Kuwait, the UK and perhaps even Saudi Arabia, are almost certain to export less oil two years from now. Should any of these exporters go into rapid depletion the consequence is likely to be the higher gas prices voters understand.
The impact of political instability on gas prices two years from now is much harder to foresee. Unless some miracle intervenes, Iraq is in a death spiral and the likelihood of Baghdad continuing to export oil at current levels is not good. The spread of the Sunni-Shiite hostilities to other Gulf States in the next two years is possible.
Nigeria has to get through its Presidential elections in 2007 and tensions are already building in the country. Whether Nigeria will be producing oil at projected, or even current levels, in 2008 is a very open question.
There is little doubt that as oil supplies become tighter, nationalism will grow, as oil producers want a bigger share of the pie at the expense of the International Oil Companies (IOCs). Currently Venezuela and Russia are the most active in bringing their petroleum resources firmly under state control just as the Middle East did 20-30 years ago. The problem is that, as oil gets harder to produce, it is the IOCs that are the only organization with the resources and technical expertise to find and produce oil under difficult conditions. Continuing friction between the IOCs and host states could easily result in significant delays in the development of new projects.
What does all this tell us about the possible impact of high oil prices on the 2008 Presidential election? There are many situations shaping up in the world today that potentially could reduce oil production. These range from major civil wars in Iraq and Nigeria to Hurricanes and sudden drops in production from aging reservoirs. Considering the range of possible problems and the tightness of world oil supplies, it is difficult to imagine that one or more will not start putting pressure on US's ability to import oil during the next 24 months.
The most pessimistic of the analysts trying to calculate the balance among new oil supplies, world demand, and oil depletion talk about 2008 as the earliest serious shortages could develop. A fair guess would put the chances at about 50-50 that high gasoline prices will be playing a major in the 2008 elections.
There are simply too many variables to speculate in a meaningful manner about the parameters of a 2008 energy debate. A major stoppage of production or imports in the next two years could force the current administration to take drastic measures —forced conservation, rationing— in spite of itself. Alternatively, a gradual increase of gasoline prices to new highs could bring out renewed waves of demagoguery — "lower taxes," "forget air quality," "hydrogen cars"— that we saw earlier this summer.
Even if all goes well and oil production manages to keep up with demand during the next two years, oil depletion does not stop. By the 2012 election the world will have gone through another 180 billion or so barrels of oil and the odds are very good that world oil production will have peaked. Whoever we elect president the next time around is likely to be facing problems fully equivalent to those faced during the Great Depression, the Civil War and the American Revolution.
Junior miner Amerigo cashes in with Chariot stock sale
Thu Oct 5, 2006 4:20pm ET
http://tinyurl.com/qnbfk
Goldcorp Founder Launches Court Action
Wednesday October 4, 1:40 pm ET
Goldcorp Founder Launches Court Action to Force Vote in Glamis Takeover
TORONTO (AP) -- Goldcorp Inc.'s founder and former chairman has followed through on earlier threats to force a shareholder vote on its proposed takeover of Glamis Gold with a filing in an Ontario court.
Rob McEwen, who last week blasted Goldcorp's management for refusing to hold a shareholder vote on its friendly takeover bid for U.S.-based Glamis, said Wednesday he has "commenced an application" with the Ontario Superior Court of Justice for a compliance order against Goldcorp under the Ontario Business Corporations Act.
He said the company broke Ontario business laws when it refused shareholders a vote on the deal.
Goldcorp has denied all of McEwen's allegations and has said it will vigorously contest any action launched to block the multibillion-dollar takeover.
Last week, Goldcorp chief executive Ian Telfer said the Glamis deal was supported by the majority of shareholders and would go ahead as planned -- repeatedly stating that McEwen was the only shareholder who wants a vote.
McEwen, who holds a 1.5 percent stake, argues that deal is too expensive, would cause too much share dilution and that Glamis is not a good fit for the company.
The friendly $8.6-billion deal is supported by the boards of both companies and requires approval by two-thirds of Glamis shareholders.
According to Telfer, a vote by Goldcorp's shareholders isn't required.
McEwen said he launched the court action after Goldcorp's board of directors advised him that they will not hold a vote.
Under the deal, Glamis shareholders will receive 1.69 shares of Goldcorp for each Glamis share and end up holding about 40 percent of the new company, Canada's newest senior gold miner.
In midday trading Wednesday on the New York Stock Exchange, shares of Goldcorp fell 80 cents, or 3.7 percent, to $20.57, while shares of Glamis fell $1.25, or 3.5 percent, to $34.32
Nortec (NVT) subsidiary commences diamond drilling on Ganarin Epithermal Gold-Silver Project, Southern Ecuador
Wednesday October 4, 2:25 pm ET
VANCOUVER, Oct. 4 /CNW/ - Nortec Ventures Corp. (TSX-V:NVT - News), ("Nortec" or the "Company"), is pleased to announce that the Company's subsidiary Minera Nortec Ecuador SA ("Nortec Ecuador") commenced diamond core drilling on the Ganarin epithermal gold-silver project, Southern Ecuador. The drilling was delayed due to import restrictions of the drill equipment into Ecuador. Three target areas will be tested for continuity, the extent and structural control of the gold-silver mineralization.
Initially systematic drilling will be carried out on the Chamana target where four distinct gold anomalous areas were delineated by geochemical soil sampling and trenching. Trenching and channel sampling of a northeast-trending road cut within the large west geochemical soil anomaly in the Chamana Oeste area returned values of 0.628 gram per tonne gold over 104 metres, including 0.931 gram per tonne over 32 metres. The detailed grid soil anomaly (line spacing of 25 metres) with values greater than 100 parts per billion gold and as high as two grams per tonne gold was traced over an area 200 metres by 300 metres by sampling. The area is underlain by zones of intense silicification, argillic alteration, quartz-chalcedony breccias and vuggy-druzy quartz stockwork zones, including silica sinter deposits.
In 1993, Newmont drilled six random rotary holes in the area. One of the holes was designed to intersect the Chamana Oeste breccia zone at depth. The hole was terminated at the top of the breccia zone due to drilling problems, but it returned 3.6 grams per tonne gold over 1.5 metres at the bottom of the hole. Detailed geological mapping and geochemical soil anomalies suggest the mineralization is controlled by north-northeast and east-northeast structures. The lengths of the drill holes are expected to be 75 metres to 200 metres. Holes will also be drilled to intersect three parallel converging quartz-chalcedony structures in the Rio Minas. Artisan miners are presently working on narrow 30 to 40 cm high-grade veinlets on one structure to depths of up to 40 metres below surface. Very significant gold values (greater than 1,500 grams gold and 2,500 grams silver per tonne over 30 centimetres) were obtained from smectite-clay fracture fillings with rounded chalcedony fragments. These fracture fillings are hosted in very tight rhyolite welded tuffs. The rounded chalcedony fragments in the structures suggest that silicification and chalcedony breccia zones are present in the lower portions of the epithermal system. Drill holes are also designed to intersect these structures in favourable host rocks below the welded tuffs.
Geochemical soil surveys at 25-metre line spacing suggest several favourable subparallel structures for precious metal mineralization. These trends will also be investigated by drilling. The Rio Minas zone occurs at an elevation of 1,340 metres above sea level, approximately 330 metres below Chamana, 220 metres below Loma La Cruz.
Preliminary drilling will also be carried out on the Loma la Cruz target area where geochemical soil values up to 8 grams were obtained.
The Company holds an option to earn a 51% interest in the Ganarin epithermal gold-silver project and 70% interest in the Condorcocha Project, Southern Ecuador, from joint-venture partner Doubloon Exploration Corp. The Ganarin property is situated in the prolific Ganarin Mineral Belt. Iamgold Corporation's Quimsacocha gold deposit occurs in the same belt approximately 30 kilometres northeast of the Ganarin Property. Indicated resources within a one-kilometre long defined area of the Quimsacocha deposit are estimated to contain 2.8 million ounces of gold and 18.2 million ounces of silver.
Mohan R. Vulimiri, M.Sc. P.Geo., President and Director of Nortec, is the person responsible for initiating and guiding the work programs on the Property. Brian T. Malahoff, P.Geo, is the person responsible for the on-site management of the exploration programs on the Property. Mr. Vulimiri and Mr. Malahoff are qualified persons in accordance with National Instrument 43-101 guidelines.
For further details and locations of the various zones on the Ganarin Property and information on Nortec Ventures Corp., please visit the Company's website at http://www.nortecventures.com and review the Company's press releases. Nortec is a mineral exploration and development company based in Vancouver, British Columbia.
Nortec is earning an undivided 70% interest in Kollismaa-Naranka nickel-copper-PGE project, northern Finland and a 51% interest in TL nickel property, Voisey's Bay area, northern Labrador.
On behalf of the Board of Directors,
NORTEC VENTURES CORP.
"Mohan R. Vulimiri"
Mohan R. Vulimiri, President & CEO
The statements made in this News Release may contain certain forward-looking statements. Actual events or results may differ from the Company's expectations. Certain risk factors may also affect the actual results achieved by the Company. The TSX Venture Exchange has not reviewed and does not accept responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.
For further information
Nortec Ventures Corp. (TSX-V: NVT - News), Suite 875, 555 Burrard Street, Box 205, Bentall Two Centre, Vancouver, BC, Canada V7X 1M8, Ph: (604) 717-6426, Fax: (604) 717-6427, www.nortecventures.com, info@nortecventures.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Nortec Ventures Corp.
Nortec (NVT) subsidiary commences diamond drilling on Ganarin Epithermal Gold-Silver Project, Southern Ecuador
Wednesday October 4, 2:25 pm ET
VANCOUVER, Oct. 4 /CNW/ - Nortec Ventures Corp. (TSX-V:NVT - News), ("Nortec" or the "Company"), is pleased to announce that the Company's subsidiary Minera Nortec Ecuador SA ("Nortec Ecuador") commenced diamond core drilling on the Ganarin epithermal gold-silver project, Southern Ecuador. The drilling was delayed due to import restrictions of the drill equipment into Ecuador. Three target areas will be tested for continuity, the extent and structural control of the gold-silver mineralization.
Initially systematic drilling will be carried out on the Chamana target where four distinct gold anomalous areas were delineated by geochemical soil sampling and trenching. Trenching and channel sampling of a northeast-trending road cut within the large west geochemical soil anomaly in the Chamana Oeste area returned values of 0.628 gram per tonne gold over 104 metres, including 0.931 gram per tonne over 32 metres. The detailed grid soil anomaly (line spacing of 25 metres) with values greater than 100 parts per billion gold and as high as two grams per tonne gold was traced over an area 200 metres by 300 metres by sampling. The area is underlain by zones of intense silicification, argillic alteration, quartz-chalcedony breccias and vuggy-druzy quartz stockwork zones, including silica sinter deposits.
In 1993, Newmont drilled six random rotary holes in the area. One of the holes was designed to intersect the Chamana Oeste breccia zone at depth. The hole was terminated at the top of the breccia zone due to drilling problems, but it returned 3.6 grams per tonne gold over 1.5 metres at the bottom of the hole. Detailed geological mapping and geochemical soil anomalies suggest the mineralization is controlled by north-northeast and east-northeast structures. The lengths of the drill holes are expected to be 75 metres to 200 metres. Holes will also be drilled to intersect three parallel converging quartz-chalcedony structures in the Rio Minas. Artisan miners are presently working on narrow 30 to 40 cm high-grade veinlets on one structure to depths of up to 40 metres below surface. Very significant gold values (greater than 1,500 grams gold and 2,500 grams silver per tonne over 30 centimetres) were obtained from smectite-clay fracture fillings with rounded chalcedony fragments. These fracture fillings are hosted in very tight rhyolite welded tuffs. The rounded chalcedony fragments in the structures suggest that silicification and chalcedony breccia zones are present in the lower portions of the epithermal system. Drill holes are also designed to intersect these structures in favourable host rocks below the welded tuffs.
Geochemical soil surveys at 25-metre line spacing suggest several favourable subparallel structures for precious metal mineralization. These trends will also be investigated by drilling. The Rio Minas zone occurs at an elevation of 1,340 metres above sea level, approximately 330 metres below Chamana, 220 metres below Loma La Cruz.
Preliminary drilling will also be carried out on the Loma la Cruz target area where geochemical soil values up to 8 grams were obtained.
The Company holds an option to earn a 51% interest in the Ganarin epithermal gold-silver project and 70% interest in the Condorcocha Project, Southern Ecuador, from joint-venture partner Doubloon Exploration Corp. The Ganarin property is situated in the prolific Ganarin Mineral Belt. Iamgold Corporation's Quimsacocha gold deposit occurs in the same belt approximately 30 kilometres northeast of the Ganarin Property. Indicated resources within a one-kilometre long defined area of the Quimsacocha deposit are estimated to contain 2.8 million ounces of gold and 18.2 million ounces of silver.
Mohan R. Vulimiri, M.Sc. P.Geo., President and Director of Nortec, is the person responsible for initiating and guiding the work programs on the Property. Brian T. Malahoff, P.Geo, is the person responsible for the on-site management of the exploration programs on the Property. Mr. Vulimiri and Mr. Malahoff are qualified persons in accordance with National Instrument 43-101 guidelines.
For further details and locations of the various zones on the Ganarin Property and information on Nortec Ventures Corp., please visit the Company's website at http://www.nortecventures.com and review the Company's press releases. Nortec is a mineral exploration and development company based in Vancouver, British Columbia.
Nortec is earning an undivided 70% interest in Kollismaa-Naranka nickel-copper-PGE project, northern Finland and a 51% interest in TL nickel property, Voisey's Bay area, northern Labrador.
On behalf of the Board of Directors,
NORTEC VENTURES CORP.
"Mohan R. Vulimiri"
Mohan R. Vulimiri, President & CEO
The statements made in this News Release may contain certain forward-looking statements. Actual events or results may differ from the Company's expectations. Certain risk factors may also affect the actual results achieved by the Company. The TSX Venture Exchange has not reviewed and does not accept responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.
For further information
Nortec Ventures Corp. (TSX-V: NVT - News), Suite 875, 555 Burrard Street, Box 205, Bentall Two Centre, Vancouver, BC, Canada V7X 1M8, Ph: (604) 717-6426, Fax: (604) 717-6427, www.nortecventures.com, info@nortecventures.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Nortec Ventures Corp.
bob3,
The real estate market remains totally insane [imo], but if I lived in Sherbrooke, I would have sold and never looked back.
sumisu
Gold Gives Up Last Week's Gains in "Suspect" Sell Off
By Jon A. Nones
03 Oct 2006 at 06:01 PM EDT
St. LOUIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- The gold market ignored the news today that North Korea plans to conduct its first nuclear test, and accompanied crude’s drop of nearly 4%. James Turk, founder and chairman of GoldMoney.com, and Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco.com, offered their collective four cents to RI regarding today’s gold sell off.
Turk said that gold’s thrashing today indeed seemed a bit suspect.
“There has been a lot of physical metal being dumped in London recently, which is presumed to be central bank selling,” said Turk. “Its intent seems to keep the price of gold under $600.”
[CONTINUED IN FOLLOWING LINK]
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=24412
Connacher Oil and Gas Limited announces us$180 million term loan B and US$15 million working capital facility for Montana refining operations to be underwritten by BNP Paribas; financing scheduled to close on October 18, 2006
CALGARY, Oct. 2 /CNW/ - Connacher Oil and Gas Limited (CLL - TSX) announced today that it has executed a Commitment Letter with BNP Paribas, a major international bank, whereby BNP Paribas has committed to provide certain of Connacher's wholly-owned subsidiaries with financing commitments for one hundred percent of Bank Facilities (the "Bank Facilities"), to be comprised of an aggregate amount of up to US$180 million in the form of a senior secured B term loan facility (the "B Term Loan Facility") and up to US$15 million senior secured working capital facility (the "Working Capital Facility"). Connacher's Great Divide assets and the Montana refining assets provide the security for the Bank Facilities, which are non-recourse to Connacher's balance sheet and other assets. The proposed term for the B Term Loan Facility is seven years from Closing, which is anticipated to occur on or about October 18, 2006. The proposed term for the Working Capital Facility is five years from Closing. It is anticipated the BNP Paribas as sole Lead Manager and Book Running Manager for the Bank Facilities will syndicate the loans. Other normal conditions for a transaction of this nature are incorporated into the Commitment Letter, which also sets out other key terms and conditions for the proposed Bank Facilities.
On Closing and after related expenses, the B Term Loan Facility proceeds are anticipated to be utilized by Connacher to discharge short-term indebtedness of US$51 million, incurred in the acquisition of the Montana refining assets in March 2006. The balance will be added to working capital to fund a portion of anticipated outlays to fully develop Pod One at Great Divide and to fund a debt service reserve during the construction phase. The Working Capital Facility will be available to fund ongoing working capital requirements at the company's Great Falls, Montana refinery, which is currently processing about 9,600 bbl/d of Bow River crude oil from Canada.
The proposed credit facilities were rated B1 with a stable outlook by Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") and BB- with a recovery rating of 1 by Standard and Poor's Ratings Services ("S&P). S&P also assigned a B+/Stable to Connacher's overall corporate credit rating.
The private placement offering associated with the facilities was launched in New York, New York on September 20, 2006.
The company views this commitment by BNP Paribas to be a significant development in underscoring and reinforcing the technical and financial merits of Connacher's Great Divide Project and its refining activity in Montana.
Separately, Connacher is pleased to advise that work is proceeding favorably at the proposed site of the Pod One plant and facility. Costs remain on budget and considerable progress has already been made in the construction and fabrication of key long-lead items which comprise a portion of the plant. Many component parts are ready for shipment from the construction and fabrication sites where the equipment was built, as soon as the groundwork is completed on location. Refer to Connacher's website at www.connacheroil.com in the section on Great Divide for pictures of some of the early earth moving and construction activities and for selected pictures of completed items. This will be updated periodically to keep investors and lenders apprised of the progress being made.
Connacher advises that as of September 15, 2006 approximately 54 percent of the steam-assisted gravity drainage ("SAGD") facility costs had already been committed or spent, work is on time and on budget and that most of the engineering and design work has been completed. Cooperative weather conditions should enable the company to remain on its timetable and efforts are well-advanced to commence, before year end, the drilling of the initial 15 SAGD well pairs to be used in the initial production of the proposed 10,000 bbl/d of bitumen anticipated for Pod One. Pad drilling rigs have been contracted in this regard.
Connacher also intends to conduct continuing exploratory and assessment work on its main lease block during the winter of 2007, including drilling up to 70 core holes and shooting extensive 3D seismic over the portions of the main lease not already evaluated in this manner. This will supplement the drilling of up to ten stratigraphic wells later in 2006 if regulatory approval and rig availability is confirmed.
Connacher recently announced the results of an updated evaluation of its Great Divide properties by GLJ Petroleum Consultants ("GLJ") of Calgary, Alberta. This expansion of the company's reserve and resource base provides the basis to consider further pod development in the near future, subject to regulatory approval and confirmation of the quality and size of various pods recognized by GLJ in their assessment and evaluation. These engineering appraisals are progressive. As new data becomes available, such as was derived from the Q1 2006 drilling and seismic program and contributed to the growth of Connacher's estimated recoverable reserve and resource base as at September 1, 2006, Connacher will be better able to assess its development options and expansion plans at Great Divide.
Connacher Oil and Gas Limited (CLL - TSX) is a public Canadian oil and natural gas exploration, development and production company based in Calgary, Alberta. In addition to its extensive and significant holdings at its Great Divide Project in the Alberta oil sands, Connacher holds extensive developed and undeveloped conventional properties, including natural gas production and reserves at Marten Creek, Alberta and crude oil production and reserves at Battrum, Saskatchewan. Current conventional production is approximately 1,000 bbl/d of crude oil and 14 mmcf/d of natural gas. Pod 1 is scheduled to produce at an approved rate of 10,000 bbl/d of bitumen once it comes on stream. Connacher also owns a 9,500 bbl/d refinery at Great Falls, Montana and is the largest shareholder of and manages the affairs of Petrolifera Petroleum Limited, a very successful exploration and production company with extensive holdings in Argentina and Peru with its common shares listed for trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol "PDP".
Forward-Looking Statements: This press release contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities law. Forward-looking statements are frequently characterized by words such as "plan", "expect", "project", "intend", "believe", "anticipate":, "estimate" and other similar words, or statements that certain events or conditions "may" or "will" occur. Forward-looking statements are based on the opinions and estimates of management at the date the statements are made, and are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. These factors include the inherent risks involved in the exploration and development of oil sands properties, the uncertainties involved in interpreting drilling results and other geological data, fluctuating oil prices, the possibility of project cost overruns or unanticipated costs and expenses, uncertainties relating to the availability and costs of financing needed in the future and other factors including unforeseen delays. As an oil sands enterprise in the development stage, Connacher faces risks, including those associated with exploration, development, approvals and the ability to access sufficient capital from external sources, including the financing described herein. Connacher undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements if circumstances or management's estimates or opinions should change, unless required by law. The reader is cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.
10/02/06 06:32
Chariot to Update Mina Justa Resource; Recent Cu Drill Intercepts Include 44 m at 2.09%, Including 16 m at 4.16%, and 22 metres at 1.93%, Including 14 m at 2.82%
Tuesday October 3, 8:30 am ET
TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - Oct. 3, 2006) - Chariot Resources Limited ("Chariot") (TSX:CHD - News) is pleased to provide an update on activities at the Mina Justa project and to announce further drill results from its 2006 drilling campaign at the Marcona Copper Project.
Project Update:
Marcobre SAC (Chariot's 70% owned Peruvian subsidiary) has retained Snowden Mining Industry Consultants ("Snowden") to update the resource estimate for the Mina Justa project. The updated resource estimate will incorporate results from over 60,000 metres of additional drilling that has been done in 2006 as well as an updated geological model of Mina Justa. Snowden has advised that the updated resource estimate could be completed by November.
On October 20, 2005, Chariot announced that the Mina Justa project had indicated resources of 132.4 million tonnes at a grade of 0.74% Cu and inferred resources of 279.7 million tonnes at a grade of 0.57% Cu. The indicated and inferred resources were determined using a 0.20% Cu cut-off. At this cut-off, the Mina Justa deposit contains 5.7 billion pounds of copper, 50.5 million oz of silver and 428,000 oz of gold. A 43-101 technical report compiled by Snowden was filed on SEDAR on February 28, 2006.
Drilling Campaign:
The drill results released today are from the West Pit Extension zone. Prior drill results from this zone were released on August 1, 2006.
Western Pit Extension: This area comprises copper oxide mineralization from a depth of about 30 metres to a depth of approximately 200 metres. On the surface this area is approximately 700 metres long and approximately 300 metres wide. The bulk of this zone also lies within the ultimate pit boundary of the Mina Justa Main pit; however, based on the previously released results, and the results released today it is likely that the pit boundary may have to be extended towards the west.
Notable highlights from the Western Pit extension area are (all copper oxide mineralization):
- MJV-06-217 44 metres at 2.09% Cu (118 to 162 m), including
16 metres at 4.16% Cu (136 to 152 m).
- MJV-06-215 36 metres at 1.20% Cu (90 to 126 m), including
6 metres at 3.09% Cu (92 to 98 m).
- MJV-06-222 22 metres at 1.93% Cu (74 to 96 m), including
14 metres at 2.82% Cu (76 to 90 m).
- MJV-06-209 12 metres at 2.15% Cu (28 to 40 m), including
8 metres at 2.87% Cu (30 to 38 m).
All intersections were determined using a rolling 0.25% Cu cut-off and up to 2 metres of internal waste. High-grade intersections in copper oxide mineralization were calculated using a rolling 1% Cu cut-off and up to 2 metres of internal waste. Higher-grade intersections in copper sulphide mineralization were determined using a rolling 2% Cu cut-off. All intercepts are down-hole length and intersection true widths have not been calculated.
Sampling procedures for the current drilling program are the same as previously reported. All RC chips are logged at the Mina Justa project site. Holes are sampled in their entirety in two metre runs and split at the drill site. A 1/8 split or approximately 5 kilograms of a two metre sample is submitted to the on-site SGS Lakefield Research ("SGS") preparation facility where samples are crushed to 95% passing 10 mesh and riffle split from which a 250 gram sub-sample is taken. The sub-sample is submitted to SGS, in Lima, for analysis. The coarse sample prep reject is bagged and stored on site and following analysis, the analytical pulp sample is returned to Chariot for on-site storage.
All samples are analyzed for copper (Cu) using sequential leach, resulting in four Cu analyses per sample (Cu total, Cu soluble in sulphuric acid, Cu soluble in sodium cyanide and a Cu residual). Gold is sampled using a 30 gram Fire Assay with an AA finish. Sulphide samples are submitted for 38 element ICP analysis with aqua-regia digest. Quality control procedures include insertion of certified project standards at the drill site (1 in 30), field, crush and pulp duplicate samples (1 in 30 each), laboratory duplicates (1 in 30) and reagent blanks and reference material (1 in 30 each).
Data contained in this news release was validated and intersections calculated by John D. Kapusta, P. Geo, Vice-President Exploration and Geological Services, Chariot Resources Limited, the designated Qualified Person as defined in National Instrument 43-101.
Mr. Ulli Rath, President and CEO, said, " The latest drill results from the West Pit Extension zone are among the highest grade intercepts that we have encountered in this zone; and given that some of these high-grade intercepts are close to the surface, it suggests that the West Pit Extension area could also be another starter pit area."
Chariot Resources Limited (TSX:CHD - News) is developing its 70% owned Marcona Copper Project in Peru. With exceptional infrastructure, a significant resource and strong financial and commercial partners, Chariot's Marcona Copper Project is scheduled to be a mid-tier copper producer by 2009.
Additional details about Chariot can be viewed at the Company's website, www.chariotresources.com.
CHARIOT RESOURCES LIMITED.
Ulli Rath, President & CEO
Contact:
Toronto, Canada Office
Chariot Resources Limited
Ulli Rath - President & CEO
Office: (416) 363-4554
Cell phone: (416) 270-4481
Forbes West - IR Advisor
Chariot Resources Limited
Office: (416) 203-2200
Cell phone: (416) 806-6615
Lima, Peru Office
Chariot Resources Limited
John Kapusta - VP Exploration & Geological Services
Office: +51-1-617 1313
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Chariot Resources Limited
Emgold's Golden Bear Ceramics Pilot Plant Up-Date
Monday October 2, 2:06 pm ET
<< TSX Venture Exchange: EMR OTC Bulletin Board: EGMCF U.S. 20-F Registration: 000-51411 Frankfurt Stock Exchange: EML >>
VANCOUVER, Oct. 2 /CNW/ - Emgold Mining Corporation (EMR-TSX Venture) (the "Company" or "Emgold") is pleased to announce that Golden Bear Ceramics Company ("Golden Bear"), a wholly owned subsidiary of Emgold, has commenced the pilot-scale manufacturing of stone tile as part of its on-going commercialization of the Ceramext(TM) technology.
Since early 2004, Golden Bear has been advancing the proprietary Ceramext(TM) technology, which converts mine tailings, mine development rock, coal fly ash, and other mineral "waste" materials into high quality stone products that can take the form of floor, wall and roof tiles, bricks, pavers and other high strength architectural members. Golden Bear has the exclusive, worldwide rights to the Ceramext(TM) technology and has initiated the green product certification process for tile and other products that can be produced by the Ceramext(TM) technology. The certification will allow building owners to obtain Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design ("LEED") points towards U.S. Green Building Council certification of their project.
The Company has applied for and will continue to file for additional patents that control the manufacturing process and the materials. Ceramext(TM) technology is an innovative technology with global impact that could revolutionize the production of many traditional ceramic and stone products, increasing the material strength and reducing the cost of manufacture of quality stone building materials.
Golden Bear is producing 10" by 10" stone tile 24 hours per day on a pilot line at the Company's Research and Development Center, located in Grass Valley, California. The tiles are made entirely from quarry fines, an industrial waste by-product generated from a large aggregate quarry. Historically, quarry fines have been placed in a landfill as waste material. By utilizing only waste material as feedstock, the tile produced can be considered a 100% green product. The sample tiles will be used for further product testing and development, test installations and for on-going market research and development.
Sample tiles are being produced for a demonstration installation in California. Although the tile has the appearance of polished stone, it has superior properties. Mechanical strength and abrasion resistance are comparable to or higher than the best quality commercial porcelain tile, and water absorption is below 0.3%. The manufacturing process allows superior control of facial dimensions without the need for grinding to size. Dimensional control is superior to the best industry performance for ceramic tile.
Golden Bear Ceramics began developing and commercializing the Ceramext(TM) technology to allow the Idaho-Maryland Gold Mine in Grass Valley to recycle its tailings and development rock when it is re-opened. Due to surface space constraints there is limited ability at the mine to impound or store these materials using traditional methods. Mine waste at the Idaho-Maryland Gold Mine may be converted to stone products, such as floor and wall tile, roof tile, pavers, and brick. The Company is also employing other materials, such as coal fly ash, to manufacture stone tile.
Golden Bear Ceramics exhibited at the West Coast Green Conference in San Francisco, CA September 28-30, 2006. The conference was well attended by distributors of building materials, design professionals such as architects and interior designers, as well as the general public. The response to the products on display at the Golden Bear booth was very positive with great interest in product qualities and availability. Please visit www.westcoastgreen.com for more information on this conference.
On behalf of the Board of Directors,
William J. (Bill) Witte, P.Eng.
President and Chief Executive Officer
No regulatory authority has approved or disapproved the
information contained in this news release.
This news release includes certain statements that may be deemed "forward-looking statements". All statements in this release, other than statements of historical facts, that address future production, reserve potential, exploration drilling, exploitation activities and events or developments that the Company expects are forward-looking statements. Although the Company believes the expectations expressed in such forward looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in forward-looking statements include market prices, exploitation and exploration successes, and continued availability of capital and financing, and general economic, market or business conditions. Investors are cautioned that any such statements are not guarantees of future performance and that actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. For more information on the Company, Investors should review the Company's filings that are available at www.sedar.com or the Company's website at www.emgold.com.
For further information
Michael O'Connor, Manager, Investor Relations, Tel: (604) 687-4622, Fax: (604) 687-4212, Email: info@emgold.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Emgold Mining Corporation
Spellbound,
You (and others) might want to listen to this 40 minute interview by Jim Puplava with Matthew Simmons on Peak Oil.
I listened to it three times already
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2006/Simmons.html
Thanks for the link in your message.
sumisu
A reflection on cities of the future
by James Howard Kunstler
Published on 28 Sep 2006 by Energy Bulletin.
Back in the early 20th Century, when the cheap oil fiesta was just getting underway, and some major new technological innovation made its debut every month – cars, radio, movies, airplanes – there was no practical limit to what men of vision could imagine about the future city, though often their imaginings were ridiculous. The representative case is Le Corbusier (Charles-Edouard Jeanneret; 1887 – 1965), the leading architectural hoodoo-meister of Early High Modernism, whose 1925 Plan Voisin for Paris proposed to knock down the entire Marais district on the Right Bank and replace it with rows of identical towers set between freeways.
Luckily for Paris, the city officials laughed at him every time he came back with the scheme over the next forty years – and Corb was nothing if not a relentless self-promoter. Ironically and tragically, though, the Plan Voisin model was later adopted gleefully by post World War Two American planners, and resulted in such urban monstrosities as the infamous Cabrini Green housing projects of Chicago and scores of things like it around the country.
Other visions of that early period involved Tom Swiftian scenes of Everest-size skyscrapers with Zeppelin moorings on top, linked to zooming air trams, while various types of personal helicopters swooped between things. Virtually all these schemes had one thing in common: the city of the future they depicted was vibrant. We know now, here in the USA anyway, that this was the one thing they got most wrong. By 1970, many American cities were stone dead at their centers, especially the industrial giants of the Midwest. Ten years later, the American city of the future was the nightmare vision of Blade Runner, an acid rain-dripping ruin fit only for androids.
These days, a new generation of mojo architect savants such as Daniel Libeskind and Rem Koolhaas are retailing an urban futurism that is basically warmed-over Corbu with an expressionist horror movie spin, featuring torqued and tortured skyscrapers, made possible by computer-aided design, clad in Darth Vadar glass or other sheer surfaces, with grim public spaces exquisitely engineered to induce agoraphobia. There’s more than a tinge of sadism in all this, though Koolhaas is much more explicit in his many writings than the less-voluble Libeskind about consciously surrendering to a zeitgeist of cruel alienation. But these are also very rarified exercises among a tiny group of mutually-referential fashionista narcissists, while the general public itself – at least the fraction that thinks about anything – only grudgingly goes along with it as a sort of drear obeisance to the religion of art.
An alternate awful urban vision of the future, advanced by public intellectuals such as author Mike Davis (The Ecology of Fear), is actually more about the city of the present: the third world mega-slum as embodied by such ghastly organisms as present-day Lagos, Lima, and Karachi. This is a vision of plain toxic hypertrophy with no particular artistic or architectural overlay to it. These cities have organized according to a simple logarithmic progression of horrible conditions – more people, more pollution, more poverty – nourished by cheap energy globalism, with the expectation that they will only continue along that path and get worse.
Yet another vision of the future is supplied by the New Urbanists, who have campaigned for a return to the body of principle and methodology drawn from successful historic practice rather than science fiction, politics, or metaphysicsThat is, they rely on urban design that has proven to work well in the past and is worth emulating – by which I mean the relations of buildings to public space and with each other, not the deployment of sewer lines and other infrastructure. The New Urbanists are marginalized because their reliance on tradition is considered sentimental and nostalgic. Their work is viewed by the mandarins of architecture through the lens of Modernist ideology, which, going back a hundred years to Adolf Loos’s declaration that ornament is crime, has worked to decouple contemporary practice from what they regard as the filthy claptrap of history. Of course, Modernism itself has self-evidently become historical in its own right, and the more this is true, paradoxically, the more its defenders insist that history does not matter. Whatever else this represents in the form of intellectual imprudence, it at least promotes a discontinuity of human experience which cannot be healthy.
The New Urbanists are also disdained for their modesty of ambition. They are not interested in the biggest this or that. Their plans are typically scaled to the quarter-mile walk and rarely include super-sized buildings. The cutting edge holds no attractions for them in and of itself. They want to create neighborhoods and quarters, not intergalactic space ports. They want the streets, squares, and building facades to provide decorum, legibility, and even beauty, while the latest crop of Modernists seek to confound our expectations about the urban environment as much as possible, in the service of generating anxiety rather than pleasure. The Modernists use the lame adjective edgy to describe their methods. It is supposed to signify excitement, novelty, and especially innovation, but mostly they have managed to innovate only new ways to make people feel bad about where they are.
The future direction of urban experience depends a great deal on an understanding of history, and of recent history in particular, because the hyper development of the past two hundred years has followed the arc of increasing energy resources and, above all, we are now facing the world-wide depletion of energy resources.
As the industrial age gained traction in the early 19th century, so did the demographic trend of people increasingly moving from the farms and villages to the big cities. Industrial production was centralized in the cities and recruited armies of workers insatiably. Meanwhile, mechanized farming required fewer farmers to feed more people. The railroad, by its nature, favored centralization. By 1900, cities such as London and New York had evolved into mega-urbanisms of multiple millions of people. Around the same time, electrification was generally complete and with it came skyscrapers serviced by elevators. Over the next twenty years, oil moved ahead of coal as the primary fuel for transport and, especially in the US where oil was cheap and abundant, led to mass automobile ownership. That, in turn, sparked the decanting of households into massive new suburban hinterlands, and to the extreme separation of activities by zoning law there, which climaxed – with interruptions for depression and war – in the evolution of the late 20th century car-dependent metroplexes like Los Angeles, Houston, Phoenix, and Atlanta. That is where things stand now.
Now my own view is that we face severe energy problems in the decades ahead and they will not be ameliorated by any combination of alternative fuels or schemes for running them. This permanent global energy crisis will have all kinds of consequences, most particularly on our cities. These looming circumstances imply several major trends which contradict conventional expectations, especially of continued urban growth.
One certain impact will be the contraction of industrial activity per se and of the financial sector whose instruments and certificates represent the expectation of growth in accumulated wealth. This alone will comprise a basic challenge to industrial capitalism – apart from the sociopolitical strife that such financial catastrophe is apt to generate.
I hasten to add it is a mistake to suppose that the US industrial economy has already been replaced by a so-called “information” economy or a consumer economy. In reality, manufacturing activities have been insidiously replaced over the past twenty years by a suburban-sprawl-building economy – and the mass production of suburban houses, highways, strip malls and big box stores is just a different sort of manufacturing than making hair driers and TV sets. The sprawl industry also drove a reckless debt creation racket and multiple layers of traffic in mortgages and spinoffs of mortgages (such as the derivatives trade based on bundled, securitized debt) which represents, at bottom, hallucinated wealth that in turn has spread false liquidity through the equity markets and is certain to affect them badly sooner or later. All this is what we have been calling the “housing bubble” and it is now beginning to fly apart with deadly effect.
Much of the suburban real estate produced by this process is destined to lose its supposed value, both in practical and monetary terms as energy scarcities get traction. So, on top of the sheer distortions and perversities of the glut in bad mortgage paper, America will be faced with the accelerating worthlessness of the collateral – the houses, Jiffy Lubes, and office parks – as gasoline prices go up, and long commutes become untenable, and jobs along with incomes are lost, and the cost of heating houses larger than 1500 square feet becomes an insuperable burden.
All this is to say that the suburban rings of our cities have poor prospects in the future. They therefore represent a massive tragic misinvestment, perhaps the greatest misallocation of resources in the history of the world. It is hard to say how this stuff might be reused or retrofitted, if at all, but some of it, perhaps a lot, may end up as a combined salvage yard and sheer ruin.
Another major impact of the coming energy scarcity will be the end of industrial agriculture. Without abundant and cheap oil and gas-based fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides, and fuels for running huge machines and irrigation systems, we will have to make other arrangements for feeding ourselves. Crop yields will go down – a big reason, by the way, to be skeptical of ethanol and bio-diesel alternative fuel schemes based on corn or soybean crops. We will have to grow food closer to home, on a smaller scale, probably requiring more human and even animal labor, and agriculture is likely to come closer to the center of economic life than it has within memory – at the same time that mass production homebuilding, tourism based on mass aviation, easy motoring, and a host of other obsolete activities fade into history.
I think this will lead to an epochal demographic shift, a reversal of the 200-year-long trend of people moving from the farms and rural places to the big cities. Instead, I believe we will see is a substantial contraction of our cities at the same time that they densify at their cores and along their waterfronts. A preview of this can be seen in Baltimore today. The remaining viable fabric of the pre-automobile city is relatively tiny and concentrated in the old center around a complex harbor system. With little need for industrial workers, vast neighborhoods of row housing built for them are either abandoned or inhabited now only by such economically distressed people that abandonment is inevitable. The pattern of contraction may not be identical in all American cities.
In some it will be a lot worse. Phoenix, Tuscon, and Las Vegas will just dry up and blow away, since local agriculture will not be possible, and they will be afflicted with severe water problems on top of all the other problems growing out of energy scarcity and an extreme car-dependent development pattern. Cities in the “wet” sunbelt such as Houston, Orlando, and Atlanta, will probably still be there but revert to insignificance for the additional simple reason that a lack of cheap air conditioning will make them unbearable.
It is worth keeping in mind that cities generally are located on important geographical sites – harbors, rivers, railroad junctions – and some kind of urban settlement is likely to persist in many of these places, unless climate change drowns them. In recent years, most waterfront property has been reassigned from industrial and commercial uses to condominium sites, and greenways. This will not continue. If we are going to have any kind of commerce between one place and another, we will have to reactivate our waterfronts for shipping – and not necessarily of the automated steel container variety. Like virtually everything else in the coming energy scarce world, maritime trade will have to be rescaled. It may even have to rely on wind power again to some extent. These operations will require wharves, warehouses, cheap quarters for sailors and all the other furnishings typically required through history.
Those who are infatuated with skyscrapers are going to be disappointed. I do not think we will be building many more of them further along in this century. We will have trouble running the ones we have, since most of the glass towers built after 1965 have inoperable windows, and even the ones that have them would have to be retrofitted for coal furnaces, and a less than absolutely reliable electric power grid may make life in a twenty-fifth floor apartment impossible when the elevators go out. In short, I think we will discover that the skyscraper was purely a product of the cheap oil and gas age. Exciting as they may be, we might have to live without them.
The process I have described will probably be messy. Social turbulence should be expected. For instance, the urban underclass will be squeezed even harder than the suffering middle classes, and they already have a nascent warrior culture that could easily redirect its energies from hip hop entertainments to real guerilla warfare if the competition for resources became desperate. Economic distress in the US is also likely to only aggravate unfavorable conditions in Mexico, sending increased streams of impoverished migrants north. Meanwhile, the faltering US middle classes may be so inflamed by the loss of their entitlements to an easy motoring existence that they will vote for maniacs and venture into scapegoating. I certainly expect the American public and their leaders to mount a vigorous defense of suburbia, even if it proves to be a gigantic exercise in futility and a waste of precious resources.
We will be lucky if we can make the transition from our current circumstances to a future of re-sized, re-scaled cities and a reactivated productive rural landscape outside them, with a hierarchy of hamlets, villages, and towns in between, and some ability to conduct commerce and manufacturing. This would, in effect, be a reversion to prior living arrangements, and to some extent it is a model proposed by the New Urbanists – or at least a template they would understand as fundamental. Many things might stand in the way of this. The physical disaggregation of civic life in our small towns is now so extreme that nothing might avail to repair it, especially since we will have far less capital to work with. The suburbs running from Boston through New Jersey to Washington have paved over some of the best farmland in the nation’s most populous region and it may be centuries before it is restored to productivity, if ever. Physical security may become so tenuous that people will sell their allegiance for protection, or take to living behind fortifications. In earlier periods of history when societies got into trouble – for instance, the plague years in Europe – rural places were beset by banditry and lawlessness, adding another layer of difficulty to food production on top of the loss of the peasant labor.
We don’t know how any of these things may actually play out. I have not even mentioned the potential for geopolitical mischief, which could skew the picture a lot more.
But the urban future isn’t what it was cracked up to be when we were riding high, surfing the big waves of cheap energy in the seemingly endless summer of oil. It won’t be fun fun fun ‘til Daddy takes the T-bird away. It won’t be a Herbert Muschamp smorgasbord of delicious, rarified architectural irony. The Koolhaas celebration of alienation will not seem worth partying for. The metaphysics of Libeskind and Peter Eisenman will stand naked in the transparency of their phoniness. By and by, even the mega slums of the third world will contract as the surplus grain supplies of the formerly-developed nations are reduced to nothing and export ceases.
I often wonder what people will think decades from now if they are able to view those old Doris Day and Rock Hudson comedies of the mid 20th century. Invariably these stories took place in a Manhattan of sparkly new glass towers, and streets full of cars with tail fins, and companies that ruled the world, and men and women who had come back from a World War full of confidence that there was no limit to what people with good intentions could do and nothing that they couldn’t handle. We are their children and grandchildren and it is a different world now.
The Peak Oil Crisis: The Perfect Storm
By Tom Whipple
Published on 21 Sep 2006 by Falls Church News-Press.
Events move quickly these days. Two months ago oil was north of $78 a barrel and, nationwide, gasoline was above to well above $3. The Middle East was threatening a conflagration and another exciting hurricane season was in the offing. Even the concept of peak oil was starting to get some scattered but serious attention in the media.
Now here we are at the end of September. The price of crude is down nearly 25 percent. Gasoline is down 75 cents a gallon. The press is full of stories of a great new oil find in the Gulf that could show the way to a cornucopia of oil. The Dow is pushing an all-time high, and financial analysts are predicting lower inflation and solid growth in the year ahead. Finally, those who don't want to believe in peak oil are loudly proclaiming, "I told you so."
What happened? Is imminent peak oil still in the cards? Just where is reality?
The first thing to remember is that the price of oil has had a great run-up in the last five years. Way back in 2002 oil was circa $20 a barrel. Although there are many factors that go into the price of oil, they sort of group into three general categories: 1) Underlying supply and demand for the product including genuine hedging; 2) Technical factors that stem from the nature of commodity speculation: overbought, oversold, charting, stop loss orders, margin calls, etc.; 3) The sum of all the speculators' ideas as to whether the price will go up or down— the fear factor. All of these factors are present all of the time. The eternal argument is over how much of the current price is due to which influence.
Every jump in the price of oil earlier this year brought forth remarks about the "fear factor." Speculators were constantly afraid something so bad was about to happen that the price of oil would soon be over $100 a barrel so the current price was a great bargain.
A couple of months back this was not a bad idea to have. The forecasters were talking about a third year of giant hurricanes tearing up the Gulf. The Iranians were firing off missiles and muttering about closing the Straits of Hormouz. In Nigeria, a foreign oil worker a week was being dragged off for ransom. Israel and Hezbollah were hard at each other and were threatening to trigger a wider war. It would have been hard for a speculator not to conclude that at least one of these looming problems would result in higher oil prices.
But then the great pendulum of events reversed. One by one the fears began to melt. Diplomacy quieted much of the Middle East. The hurricanes of 2006 curved towards Europe where they harmlessly watered the fields of Ireland. Nigeria turned quiet. Chavez kept threatening, but the speculators no longer listened.
Fear factor after fear factor diminished into a perfect storm of good news. Week after week the good news for oil prices kept coming. US stockpiles continued to build. Cooler weather reduced the use of natural gas for air conditioning. A giant oil find was made in the Gulf of Mexico. Even the US economy cooperated by showing some signs of slowing, thus raising the specter of reduced demand for oil.
As the price fell, the normal technical factors of speculating came into play. The bulls bailed out. Margin calls were made. Overcommitted hedge funds went bust.
Now what does all this have to do with peak oil? The short answer is, so far, very little. Naturally, higher or lower prices will affect demand and therefore exacerbate or mitigate the supply situation. Tight supplies already are reflected in the base price of oil before we get to the speculative factors. This is how we got from $20 to $60 a barrel. If the price stabilizes in the neighborhood of $60 after the speculative premium is wrung out of the market, then we will have some idea of where simple supply and demand for oil prices the product.
Behind all the good news for oil prices, however, depletion of the world's finite oil supply continues at 85 million barrels per day, day after day, after day. Bad news for the future of oil production continues to come out, but it is lost in the shuffle or not recognized for its importance. Many now hold that the good news of a great new oil find deep beneath the Gulf of Mexico is, in reality, bad news. If ultra deep-sea oil, which is very expensive and may take many years to exploit, is all we have left, then we are close to the end of cheap oil.
During the last few weeks, slippages in major oil exploration projects have came to light. Of particular note is the BP's great Thunderhorse platform, which seems to have developed metallurgical problems associated with extracting oil from great depths. If this turns out to be a generic problem, then the new frontier of ultra deep-sea oil wells may be a while in coming.
The bottom line remains that peak oil is still very real and, if anything, the news from recent weeks suggests the peak may be moving closer rather than receding.
An interesting sidelight to the last few weeks has been the paranoia surrounding rapidly dropping gasoline prices. According to a Gallup poll, 42 percent of Americans, mostly Democrats, believe that the administration is deliberately manipulating gasoline prices to improve their chances in the November elections. As noted above, there are numerous factors that are more than adequate to drive down prices to current levels. Prominent among these factors is the normal drop in demand between the summer driving season and the winter heating season.
In 2005, gas and oil prices experienced a similar drop after the spike caused by the summer hurricanes.
Therefore, the message of the last few weeks is not to confuse lower gas prices with any lessening of the threat from peak oil. The peak is still out there and is moving inextricably closer. In the meantime, enjoy low gas prices while they last. OPEC is already wildly signaling that its members can't live with oil below $60 and that production restrictions are coming shortly.
For readers who are seriously concerned about the imminence and consequences of peak oil, the US branch of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil, ASPO-USA, is holding a World Oil Conference in on 26 and 27 October. For more information or to register, their website is www.aspo-usa.com.
Economics: avoiding the Y2K fallacy - John Michael Greer
Published on 27 Sep 2006 by The Archdruid Report
Third part of a nine-part series
The end of the age of cheap fossil fuels heralds a total revolution in economic affairs worldwide. For the last three hundred years, the key to prosperity has been the replacement of human skill with mechanical energy. The steam-powered factories of 18th century England heralded an economic order in which technological progress and soaring rates of fossil fuel extraction went hand in hand, and success went to those who pushed mechanization into new economic sectors – replacing sails with steam, farm horses with tractors, local theaters with movies and TV, folk culture with mass-produced pop culture, and so on.
Hubbert’s peak marks the limit of this process. Mechanization depends on massive infusions of cheap energy, and that combination of abundant energy at low cost is exactly what won’t be available in the future. If the last three hundred years funneled wealth to those who could exploit fossil fuels to the fullest and build centralized, technologically driven economic structures, the next three hundred years will see exactly the opposite; success will go to those who get ahead of depletion curves by reducing their reliance on fossil fuels further than others, and relying instead on human skills and sustainable, low-intensity energy inputs.
These changes won’t take place overnight, though. Hubbert’s peak occurs when approximately half the world’s accessible petroleum has been pumped out, and so the slope down from it will more than likely parallel the slope up to it. This means that in 2030, for example, the world will be producing about as much oil as it produced in 1980, and very significant amounts of coal, natural gas, hydroelectricity, and other energy sources will also be available. All that energy will still be available to power factories, fuel transportation, and fill other economic roles. It will be more expensive, less reliable, and spread more unevenly among a larger world population, but it will still be there.
[bThus the survivalist fantasy that peaking oil production will lead to sudden collapse can’t be justified. What we face instead, as I’ve argued elsewhere, is a long period of economic contraction and technological decline. There will be plenty of bumps and potholes on the long road down, to be sure. Systems failures like the one that accompanied Hurricane Katrina last year, and reduced large portions of coastal Louisiana and Mississippi to a Third World level from which they show no signs of recovering, are likely to be regular occurrences. Still – and this has to be grasped in order to make any sense at all out of the future – systems failures don’t automatically spiral out into total collapse.
This point has been notably lacking in many discussions of the economic impact of peak oil. It’s commonly argued, for example, that the financial shock imposed by rising energy costs will cause the entire global economy to come apart at the seams, leaving people unable to get food and other necessities and turning them into the marauding hordes of the standard survivalist fantasy. This is a classic example of what I call the Y2K fallacy, and revisiting the Y2K fiasco will cast some light on where current speculations about peak oil have run off the rails.
In the late 1990s, as my readers will doubtless remember, computer experts began to warn that many older computer systems had no way to process year-numbers beginning with a 2 rather than a 1, and could crash when the calendar rolled over from 1999 to 2000. Early surveys of the problem showed that a very large number of systems could be affected, especially in banking, telecommunications, and government. By the beginning of 1998 or so, it was clear that a major mess was in the making unless something was done.
This real and serious problem, though, quickly got blown out of proportion by the apocalypse lobby – the sizeable number of people for whom faith in the imminent collapse of civilization is an emotional necessity. By 1999, survivalist visions of social collapse and mass death via Y2K spilled out of this subculture and percolated through American society. I knew many people who confidently expected the end of civilization as we know it on New Years Eve of 1999, and waited all night in their basements for the blackouts, systems failures, and rampaging mobs that never came.
Some pundits have used these failed predictions to argue that the whole Y2K crisis wasn’t real in the first place, but this misstates the whole lesson of the experience. The threat was real; the apocalypse lobby simply missed the four most important words in the prediction – “unless something was done.” Faced with a credible threat, a hard deadline, and a clear course of action, people responded predictably by doing something about the situation. Sales of Y2K-compliant computers and software soared off the charts, and software jockeys made money hand over fist reprogramming old machines. Some of us used simpler fixes; I simply reset the calendar on my old and non-compliant computer to December 31, 1949, and went through the rollover to January 1, 1950 with no trouble at all.
The fallacy that bedeviled the Y2K survivalists was the belief that government, business, and ordinary people, faced with an immiment threat and obvious responses to it, will sit on their hands and do nothing until catastrophe overwhelms them. This same odd belief can be found all through discussions of peak oil. As oil plateaus and then declines, energy prices will rise sharply; that’s the threat. The obvious response, which succeeded brilliantly in the 1970s, is to reduce energy use through conservation. This factor is already helping to drive swings in energy prices, as demand for petroleum and natural gas fails to meet speculators’ expectations.
The collision between declining fossil fuel production and increasing demand, in fact, is far more likely to cause drastic swings in the price of energy than the sort of sustained rise imagined by some peak oil theorists. As energy prices rise, speculators dive into the market, driving up prices further than actual shortfalls in production capacity would justify. Many energy consumers respond by cutting back on their energy use by means of lifestyle changes and conservation technologies, while others are simply priced out of the market. The result is that demand drops, stockpiles rise, and prices start to slide. The speculators dive out of the market, driving down prices further than actual declines in demand would justify, and the cycle begins again. The resulting whipsaw movements in the price of energy can cause plenty of economic damage all by themselves, but there again it’s possible to respond to volatility constructively – for example, by stockpiling fuel when it’s cheap and drawing down those stockpiles when prices spike.
The same logic needs to be applied to other aspects of our economic situation. The United States today, as many people have pointed out, is a spendthrift debtor nation, borrowing more than $2 billion a day from overseas to pay for imports that far exceed its exports and a standard of living that can’t be supported by its anemic manufacturing and resource-extraction base. These factors are unsustainable, and major shifts in the world economic order are inevitable as the resulting imbalances work themselves out. Those who claim that the result will inevitably be social collapse and a Road Warrior future, though, haven’t been paying attention to world economic affairs. Over the last fifty years or so, quite a few nations have borrowed and spent their way into fiscal crisis. Some responded with austerity and periods of recession; some inflated their currencies, went into hyperinflation, and came back out of it; some repudiated their foreign debts and weathered the international reaction; others simply muddled through. All of them survived the crisis and rebuilt afterwards, and so will the United States.
Most people nowadays, it has to be said, underestimate the resiliency of the modern nation-state. A US government faced with a severe economic crisis has plenty of options. It can respond to a market crash by flooding the economy with essentially free credit, as Japan did after the 1990 stock debacle. It can respond to currency collapse by abandoning its old currency and issuing a new one with solid backing, as Germany did in the 1920s to end its bout of hyperinflation. It can manipulate markets, nationalize industries, enact wage and price controls, levy punitive tariffs and embargoes, subsidize basic necessities for the population, and impose rationing of fuel and food. If necessary, it can declare martial law and use the military and National Guard to restore civil order. All of these things have taken place in many other countries in the last half century or so, when governments have faced the possibility of chaos. Any or all of them could readily happen here – and for that matter, some already have.
There are still very rough times ahead, to be sure. After a quarter century of reckless borrowing and waste fueled by absurdly extravagant use of the world’s finite energy resources, America is likely to face a period of contraction as bad as the Great Depression, and an economic breakdown on the scale of the one that engulfed Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union is far from impossible. Still, the United States still existed after the Depression, Russia still exists today, and millions of people came through each of these economic crises with their lives, families, homes, and livelihoods intact.
Thus we can expect the next few decades to see a great deal of economic volatility and wrenching change, and quite probably some very hard times for many people. Energy costs will be impossible to predict as prices spike and crash, trending slowly but very unevenly upwards, and economic sectors dependent on stable access to energy will face a very rough road indeed. On average, those people and industries that require more energy will do worse than those that can make do with less, and those professions that meet actual needs will do much better than those devoted to the mass production of the unnecessary. Two weeks from now, I’ll make some suggestions about how individuals can prepare to deal with the new economic world of the deindustrializing future. Before that, though, it’s necessary to take a second look at the economy and draw some rarely noticed distinctions between the real economy of goods and services and the fictive economy that currently dominates the way goods and services are produced, distributed and sold.
Plexmar Acquires Escondida Project, Ecuador
Thursday September 28, 2:07 pm ET
SAINTE-FOY, QUEBEC--(CCNMatthews - Sept. 28, 2006) - Plexmar Resources Inc. (TSX VENTURE:PLE - News) is pleased to announce that a final letter of intent has been signed with the owner of the Escondida project in Ecuador to acquire 100% of the mining rights to these properties.
The Escondida project represents one of the largest land positions in the Cordillera del Condor near Aurelian Resources' Fruta del Norte gold discovery. The project covers 84,110 hectares (841.1 km2) and borders Aurelian's large land package on the western flank and north of Corriente Resources claims. Fruta del Norte is believed to be the most significant gold discovery made by a junior miner in over a decade. Corriente is planning to produce annually 250 million lbs. of copper starting in 2008.
During its due diligence process on the Escondida concessions, Plexmar took 44 samples, 12 returned anomalous values of gold and the best values were: 14.2 g/t, 38.4 g/t, 91.4 g/t and 396.0 g/t Au confirming the high potential of the area. The samples are located on the Escondida II concession adjacent to Aurelian's ground and approximately 8 kilometers northwest of Fruta del Norte.
According to Plexmar president Guy Bedard, "With this agreement, Plexmar becomes a major player in the Cordillera del Condor area by controlling the most prospective land package near Aurelian's world class discovery. Plexmar is also teaming up with a successful private mining company with over 25 years experience in Ecuador. An aggressive geological mapping and geochemistry program will be starting next week for the purpose of delineating drill targets as soon as possible."
The terms of the letter of intent are as follows:
- Plexmar acquires a 100% interest in the properties in return for cash payments totaling US$2.0M over a 24-month period following the signature of the final contract and the issuance of shares. Every 3 months payments will be issued totaling US$1.35M in the first year and US$650k the second year. Payments totaling US$200k have already been made. 6M shares will be issued to the owner, 2M on signature of the final contract, 2M after 6 months and 2M after 12 months.
- Plexmar is required to assign a 60% interest to a public vehicle of its choice (New Company). Plexmar will sign an option agreement with the New Company whereby the New Company will issue all cash payments due by Plexmar to the owner, issue a significant number of shares to Plexmar, and commit to a 3-year exploration work program.
- The New Company is required to issue to the owner 20% of its outstanding shares before a public financing and 10% in warrants. The owner will also be given a seat on the New Company's Board of Directors.
- A 2.5% NSR will be awarded to the owner with a right of first refusal assigned jointly to Plexmar and the New Company.
- A final purchase contract will be signed shortly and subject to the approval of the regulatory authorities.
According to Guy Bedard, "This is an excellent deal for Plexmar for it will greatly limit share dilution, maintain funds for Bolsa del Diablo, receive significant shares in the New Company, and acquire a carried 40% interest in the project for the next 3 years."
This press release includes certain statements that may be deemed "forward-looking statements". All statements in this release, other than statements of historical facts, that address future exploration drilling, exploration activities and events or developments that the Company expects, are forward looking statements. Although the Company believes the expectations expressed in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those in forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in forward-looking statements include market prices, exploitation and exploration successes, continued availability of capital and financing, and general economic, market or business conditions.
108 M shares outstanding
The TSX Venture Exchange does not accept responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.
Contact:
Guy Bedard
Plexmar Resources Inc.
President
418-658-6776
www.plexmar.com
1-866-460-0408
Paradox Public Relations
1-514-341-0408
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Plexmar Resources Inc.
Silver Wheaton Granted Right of First Refusal on Penasquito Silver Production
Wednesday September 27, 10:21 am ET
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(MARKET WIRE)--Sep 27, 2006 -- Silver Wheaton Corp. (TSX:SLW.TO - News)(NYSE:SLW - News) ("Silver Wheaton") is pleased to announce it will receive a right of first refusal on future silver production from the Penasquito Project from Goldcorp Inc. ("Goldcorp") upon the successful completion of Goldcorp's acquisition of Glamis Gold Ltd. ("Glamis"), the 100% owner of the Penasquito Project located in Zacatecas, Mexico.
Under Silver Wheaton's existing Luismin agreement with Goldcorp, Silver Wheaton is entitled to purchase a 49% interest in production, development or exploration properties acquired by Goldcorp in Mexico until October 15, 2007. In connection with Goldcorp's proposed acquisition of Glamis, Silver Wheaton has agreed to waive its right to acquire an interest in any of Glamis' Mexican projects. In exchange for this waiver, Goldcorp has agreed to negotiate exclusively with Silver Wheaton, for a period of 180 days from the date of Goldcorp's acquisition of Glamis, for the potential purchase by Silver Wheaton of a portion of the future production of silver to be mined from the Penasquito Project. If Silver Wheaton and Goldcorp are not successful in entering into a silver purchase agreement on the Penasquito Project during such time, Silver Wheaton will retain a right of first refusal on any future silver purchase agreements based on the Penasquito Project, for so long as Goldcorp maintains at least a 20% interest in Silver Wheaton.
Silver Wheaton is the only public mining company with 100% of its revenue from silver production. The Company expects to have annual silver sales of approximately 15 million ounces in 2006, increasing to 20 million ounces by 2009 and thereafter. Silver Wheaton is unhedged and well positioned for further growth.
CAUTIONARY NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
This news release contains "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and applicable Canadian securities legislation. Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to the future price of silver, the estimation of mineral reserves and resources, the realization of mineral reserve estimates, the timing and amount of estimated future production, costs of production, reserve determination and reserve conversion rates. Generally, these forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "plans", "expects" or "does not expect", "is expected", "budget", "scheduled", "estimates", "forecasts", "intends", "anticipates" or "does not anticipate", or "believes", or variations of such words and phrases or state that certain actions, events or results "may", "could", "would", "might" or "will be taken", "occur" or "be achieved". Forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, level of activity, performance or achievements of Silver Wheaton to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements, including but not limited to: risks related to the integration of acquisitions, the absence of control over mining operations from which Silver Wheaton purchases silver and risks related to these mining operations, including risks related to international operations, actual results of current exploration activities, actual results of current reclamation activities, conclusions of economic evaluations, changes in project parameters as plans continue to be refined, as well as those factors discussed in the section entitled "Description of the Business - Risk Factors" in Silver Wheaton's annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2005 incorporated by reference into Silver Wheaton's Form 40-F on file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in Washington, D.C. Although Silver Wheaton has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking statements, there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated, estimated or intended. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Silver Wheaton does not undertake to update any forward-looking statements that are incorporated by reference herein, except in accordance with applicable securities laws.
Plexmar Resources Inc.: Update on Bolsa Del Diablo
Wednesday September 27, 9:31 am ET
SAINTE-FOY, QUEBEC--(CCNMatthews - Sept. 27, 2006) - Plexmar Resources Inc. (TSX VENTURE:PLE - News), is pleased to announce that its team of geologists has uncovered a new area of economic potential located on its Bolsa del Diablo project. The new area named 'Pena Blanca' is located 10 kms north of the actual area where the Company is carrying out detailed ground geophysics. The host rock is the Lancones volcanic unit cut by granodioritic and dacitic intrusive rocks in which mineralized breccias with strong argilic alteration (quartz, sericite-pyrite) with disseminated sulphides are found. Silica caps covered by quaternary material can be found in numerous areas which may indicate that these alterations have not been eroded. Structurally, this new zone is associated with the gold bearing corridor oriented NE-SW in which the core zone of Bolsa del Diablo is located. Over 95 chip, channel and composite samples have been taken and the best ones returned values of over 7.2 g/t Au in the veins and 4.5g/t Au in the breccias.
"The newly found Pena Blanca area, located 10 kms north of Bolsa del Diablo clearly demonstrates the potential to find numerous gold deposits in this structural corridor. Geological crews are being mobilized to continue the prospecting and detailed mapping that will eventually lead to a drilling program" Guy Bedard, president says.
On the core area, the airborne geophysics has been completed and the data will be received within two weeks for analysis by our geophysicist. The ground magnetic and topographic surveys are 90% completed and the IP survey should be completed by the end of next month. A diamond drilling program of at least 3,000 meters will start as soon as drill targets have been confirmed.
On Bolsa del Diablo, the best results from on-going samples are tabulated in the following pages. In total 115 samples were collected from the Angolos concession in veins, volcanics and intrusive rocks following up recently found vein type structures in highly altered volcanic and intrusive rocks. The best samples returned values of 60.9 g/t Au in the veins (channel sample), 25.8 g/t Au in the volcanic unit (chip sample) and 6.34 g/t Au in the intrusive unit (chip sample 5m dia.).
The Company will inform shortly its shareholders on the results of the negotiating process regarding the acquisition of the Escondida project in Ecuador.
All samples are analyzed by ALS Chemex in Lima. Guy Bedard, president, acted as the QP for the preparation of this news release.
On Bolsa del Diablo
Plexmar controls over 220 km(2) of land in Northern Peru near the border with Ecuador. Over 400 artisan miners are pulling gold on a daily basis from trenches or pits located in an area measuring approximately 6km(2) roughly centered within Plexmar's main claim block. The zone is characterized by low to intense silica and clay hydrothermal alteration. All the volcanic rocks in the area of interest show pervasive argillic alteration and have developed very intense stockwork structures. Gold mineralization occurs partly as fracture fillings in the stockwork and also as dissemination throughout the rock. Limonitization is pervasive throughout the rock. This intense stockwork was observed in numerous places on the property.
This press release includes certain statements that may be deemed "forward-looking statements". All statements in this release, other than statements of historical facts, that address future exploration drilling, exploration activities and events or developments that the Company expects, are forward looking statements. Although the Company believes the expectations expressed in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those in forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in forward-looking statements include market prices, exploitation and exploration successes, continued availability of capital and financing, and general economic, market or business conditions.
BOLSA DEL DIABLO
VEINS
Channel samplings in the veins varying from 0.5m to 1.0m in width are taken at an average depth of 1m. Channel samples were taken either vertically or horizontally over a 2m interval. Chip samples cover an area of at least 0.5m in diameter. The best values are tabulated below:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/060927/200609270349278001.html?.v=1
Murenbeeld Weighs $700+ Gold in 2007
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=24224
Goldcorp Founder to Challenge Glamis Bid
Tuesday September 26, 12:23 pm ET
Former Goldcorp Chairman Will Launch Proxy Battle to Challenge Glamis Bid
TORONTO (AP) -- Goldcorp Inc. founder and former chairman Rob McEwen is launching a proxy battle to force a shareholder vote on the company's US$8.6-billion friendly bid for U.S.-based Glamis Gold Ltd.
A spokesman for McEwen confirmed Tuesday that McEwen, Goldcorp's largest individual shareholder is not in favor of the deal and is "starting that proxy effort."
A formal challenge against Goldcorp management and its board of directors is expected later Tuesday.
When the deal was announced in August, McEwen, who owns about 1.5 percent of Goldcorp, called the deal very expensive, and expressed disappointment over the fact that Goldcorp shareholders would not have a chance to vote on a deal that will see the company issue nearly 300 million new shares.
The formal challenge could force the company to hold a vote.
As part of the deal, which will create Canada's newest senior gold miner, Glamis shareholders will receive 1.69 shares of Goldcorp for each Glamis share and end up holding about 40 percent of the new company.
It is supported by the boards of both companies and requires approval by two-thirds of Glamis shareholders -- but a vote by Goldcorp shareholders is not required.
The Glamis deal follows Goldcorp's takeover of Wheaton River Minerals Ltd. last year and the $1.5 billion addition of several former Placer Dome mines earlier this year.
Goldcorp has operations in Canada, Argentina, Mexico, Brazil, Australia and the United States, and also owns a controlling interest in Silver Wheaton Corp.
Glamis operates mines and development projects in Nevada, Mexico and Central America.
Shares of Goldcorp rose 60 cents, or 2.7 percent, to $22.58 in Tuesday morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Glamis shares rose 88 cents, or 2.4 percent, to $37.72 on the NYSE.
Lateegra moves crews to El Condor; increases financing
2006-09-26 11:20 ET - News Release
Mr. Michael Townsend reports
LATEEGRA ANNOUNCES PROGRAM IN ECUADOR, FINANCING UPDATE
Lateegra Gold Corp. is mobilizing geologists and technical crews to the project site in southeastern Ecuador, lead by J. Reeder, PGeo, for the commencement of a surface geochem sampling and geological mapping program being performed in order to delineate potential drill targets. The El Condor project is located within three kilometres from Aurelian Resources' recent world-class discovery at the Fruta Del Norte, (FDN) and immediately south of Aurelian's El Tigre drill target with the area's potential having been recently outlined in a summary field report by Dr. Richard Sillitoe.
Peru -- Halcones project
The company has recently signed a letter of intent with MPH Ventures Corp. to enter into a formal option agreement for the acquisition by MPH Ventures of a 50-per-cent interest in Lateegra's wholly owned Halcones gold-silver project located entirely on the Peruvian side of the Ecuador-Peru border. The Halcones project consists of approximately 6,000 hectares of mineral claims being held in trust by a Peruvian national in favour of the company, with the necessary mineral rights applications being processed through standard application procedures with the Peruvian government.
Lateegra moves crews to El Condor; increases financing
2006-09-26 11:20 ET - News Release
Mr. Michael Townsend reports
LATEEGRA ANNOUNCES PROGRAM IN ECUADOR, FINANCING UPDATE
Lateegra Gold Corp. is mobilizing geologists and technical crews to the project site in southeastern Ecuador, lead by J. Reeder, PGeo, for the commencement of a surface geochem sampling and geological mapping program being performed in order to delineate potential drill targets. The El Condor project is located within three kilometres from Aurelian Resources' recent world-class discovery at the Fruta Del Norte, (FDN) and immediately south of Aurelian's El Tigre drill target with the area's potential having been recently outlined in a summary field report by Dr. Richard Sillitoe.
Peru -- Halcones project
The company has recently signed a letter of intent with MPH Ventures Corp. to enter into a formal option agreement for the acquisition by MPH Ventures of a 50-per-cent interest in Lateegra's wholly owned Halcones gold-silver project located entirely on the Peruvian side of the Ecuador-Peru border. The Halcones project consists of approximately 6,000 hectares of mineral claims being held in trust by a Peruvian national in favour of the company, with the necessary mineral rights applications being processed through standard application procedures with the Peruvian government.
Yamana Mining: Great Properties and Management
Thursday September 14, 5:01 am ET
http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/060914/16857_id.html?.v=1
Emgold's Golden Bear Ceramics at West Coast Green Conference
Monday September 25, 9:30 am ET
<< TSX Venture Exchange: EMR OTC Bulletin Board: EGMCF U.S. 20-F Registration: 000-51411 Frankfurt Stock Exchange: EML >>
VANCOUVER, Sept. 25 /CNW/ - Emgold Mining Corporation (EMR-TSX Venture) (the "Company" or "Emgold") is pleased to announce that Golden Bear Ceramics Company ("Golden Bear"), a wholly owned subsidiary of Emgold, will be exhibiting its stone tile, manufactured from 100% waste material, at the West Coast Green Residential Building Conference from September 28th to 30th in San Francisco at the Bill Graham Civic Auditorium, Booth 103. West Coast Green is the largest residential green building conference dedicated to the development of sustainable communities in North America. For more information about the conference please visit their website at www.westcoastgreen.com.
As an exhibitor, Golden Bear will have the opportunity to introduce high quality 100% green stone building products to architects, designers, developers and builders who focus on green building projects or who intend to incorporate green products into future projects. Golden Bear is introducing the high quality stone products manufactured using the Ceramext(TM) technology to key decision makers early in the project planning process to allow Golden Bear products to be specified.
In addition to the floor and wall tile markets, Golden Bear has also targeted the roofing market, through the manufacture and sale of roofing tiles to be produced by the Ceramext(TM) technology. The current market for ceramic roofing tile is approximately USD$100 million per year out of the USD$8.9 billion annual roofing materials market in the United States. A key driver of this market in the future is the introduction of "Cool Roof" technology. Cool Roof technology is the application of reflective coatings to roof tile surfaces. The high roof reflectance reduces the heat entering a building through its roof and results in lower interior temperatures and lower air conditioning demands placed on the local electrical power grid. In 2008 it is expected that the State of California will introduce Title 24, a statewide initiative that will mandate the use of Cool Roof technology, which may be a possible driver to the tile roofing market. Given that Golden Bear's roof tile is made from 100% waste material, the combination with Cool Roof technology enhances Golden Bear's potential as a supplier of 100% green ceramic roofing products.
William J. (Bill) Witte, P.Eng.
President and Chief Executive Officer
No regulatory authority has approved or disapproved the information
contained in this news release.
This news release includes certain statements that may be deemed "forward-looking statements". All statements in this release, other than statements of historical facts, that address future production, reserve potential, exploration drilling, exploitation activities and events or developments that the Company expects are forward-looking statements. Although the Company believes the expectations expressed in such forward looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in forward-looking statements include market prices, exploitation and exploration successes, and continued availability of capital and financing, and general economic, market or business conditions. Investors are cautioned that any such statements are not guarantees of future performance and that actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. For more information on the Company, Investors should review the Company's filings that are available at www.sedar.com or the Company's website at www.emgold.com.
For further information
Michael O'Connor, Manager, Investor Relations, Tel: (604) 687-4622, Fax: (604) 687-4212, Email: info@emgold.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Emgold Mining Corporation
Energy: preparations and possibilities - John Michael Greer
Published on 21 Sep 2006 by The Archdruid Report
Second part of a nine-part series
Last week’s Archdruid Report post sketched out the future that the shortsighted choices and missed opportunities of the last thirty years have made inevitable: a future in which energy of all kinds will be less available, more expensive, and increasingly uncertain with each passing year. At this point in history, that can’t be prevented, and today’s governments are so blinkered by the myth of progress and so beholden to the existing economic order that the chance they’ll pursue a constructive response to our predicament is slim at best. The one remaining option is preparation on the personal, family, and community level.
This offers more possibilities than a casual glance might suggest. One of the many ironies of our present situation is that today’s energy-squandering lifestyles actually give us more room for maneuver as energy supplies decline. Especially in the United States, we waste so much energy on nonessentials that a large fraction of our energy use can be conserved without severely impacting our lives. Consider the suburbanite who mows his lawn with a gasoline-powered mower, and then hops in a car to drive down to the gym to get the exercise he didn’t get mowing his lawn! From Christmas lights and video games to three-hour commutes and Caribbean vacations, most of the absurd extravagance that characterizes energy use in America and other industrial countries only happens because fossil fuel energy has been so cheap so long.
It’s been pointed out many times that the average American uses between two and four times as much energy each year (estimates vary) as the average European. It’s much more rarely noted that the standard of living Americans buy with this extravagance isn’t significantly better than the one Europeans enjoy at a quarter of the energy cost. This means the average American could theoretically cut her energy use by up to three-quarters without seriously affecting her standard of living. Most European countries have infrastructure and urban design that supports relatively low-energy lifestyles, while most of America lacks these, so that theoretical possibility isn’t a practical option for most people. Major cuts, though, are well within reach.
Mature technologies and proven lifestyle changes already exist that can save half or more of the energy the average American family uses in the course of a year. Nearly all of them were already on the shelf by the late 1970s. At this point it’s simply a matter of putting them to work. Since most of them require modest investment, and prices for many of the materials involved are likely to soar once energy prices shoot up and conservation becomes a matter of economic survival for all but the very rich, getting them in place as soon as possible is essential.
Let’s start with transportation, the largest single energy use for most Americans. Commuting by private car swallows a majority of most people’s gasoline budget and a very large fraction of their total energy use. Few aspects of today’s American lifestyle are as dysfunctional in a deindustrial world as our habit of driving long distances between home, work, and access to goods and services. After fifty years of car-centered land use planning, getting out of the commuting lifestyle takes careful planning and a willingness to do without certain amenities, but it can certainly be done.
If your present job uses local materials and labor to produce goods or services people need, and thus will still be viable in a deindustrializing world, you need to live within walking or, at most, bicycling distance of your work place.Otherwise you won’t have a job once shortages hit and commuting becomes impossible. (You won’t be able to rely on public transit, since millions of other people will be trying to use it at the same time you are.) If your present job is like most American employment and produces nothing people actually need, you need to switch to a career producing necessary goods and services, and so you need to live within walking distance of your future workplace and the people who will patronize you—and in either case, you need to be within walking distance of other people who can provide you with goods and services you need.
The best way to manage this is to live in an old-fashioned mixed-use neighborhood that includes homes, small businesses, and public facilities such as schools and libraries, all within easy reach of one another. The neighborhood can be in a rural area, a town, or a small or middle-sized city. It can even be in the sort of old-fashioned suburb that surrounds a small business district or retail core. Moving to such a neighborhood can involve giving up amenities many Americans prefer, but to be frank, you’ll just have to live with that. A lifeboat is more cramped and less comfortable than an ocean liner, but if the liner’s sinking the lifeboat is still a better option.
Don’t let the first wave of crises find you living in a bedroom suburb miles from the nearest shopping or employment, or the sort of lone house or cabin far out in the backwoods that most of today’s survivalists fancy, unless you plan on meeting all your own needs for food, fuel, clothing, health care, police protection, and everything else. As I’ll show in next week’s post, all these things will still be available during the crisis years; supplies will be sporadic and shortages common, but local economies will emerge as the global economy comes apart, and barter and foreign currencies will come into use if the dollar becomes worthless. In the decaying suburbs and the rural periphery, though, none of these things will be within reach, and unless you’ve thoroughly practiced self-sufficiency skills and are willing to embrace a primitive lifestyle, trying to get by in isolation is a one-way ticket to starvation, exposure, and death.
Other aspects of transportation are easily handled, once you can get to essential goods and services on your own feet, and local economies will generate their own transport networks as supply and demand come back into balance. The great challenge will be getting through the first wave of crises, as the commuter economy grinds to a halt and the transitional economy that will replace it struggles to get going. Preparation is essential. For example, the sooner you start commuting on foot, as well as walking to the grocery store and bringing home your purchases in cloth bags or a backpack, the less difficulty you’ll have when this is the only option left.
So much for transportation. Household uses account for most of the remaining energy that people in today’s America actually need, and here the conservation techniques developed during the 20th century and perfected in the 1970s can be put to use. Few of today’s houses have adequate insulation, and little tricks like putting gaskets behind light switch plates and electrical outlets have been all but forgotten since the beginning of the Reagan years. Fixing these things – adding insulation, weatherstripping, storm windows, and the like – can save a great deal of energy. More ambitious steps such as solar hot water heating, passive solar retrofits, earth berms, and the like can also be put to good use. Sweaters, quilts, and other ways of conserving body heat also have their place. While you’re at it, learn to be comfortable with changes in temperature; your great-grandparents got along just fine without air conditioning and central heating, and so will you.
Having a backup source of heat for your home is essential in a future where blackouts and fuel shortages will be a common occurrence. In many cases, a wood stove or fireplace insert will be your best option here, since the fuel can be produced locally. Coppicing and other methods of producing firewood that don’t impact surviving forests will be essential, and a likely growth industry. Using wood as a heating fuel will increase the death rate from asthma, but not doing so will increase the death rate from hypothermia and infectious disease; in the future ahead of us, such bleak tradeoffs will be commonplace.
Other household issues can be dealt with similarly. You’ll need to have at least one backup method of cooking food, and you should be prepared to wash your clothes in the bathtub and take care of other necessities when the power is out or the price soars out of reach. Assess every appliance and amenity you have, and make sure that you can either do the equivalent by hand, using tools you own and know how to use and maintain, or do without it altogether. The time to do that assessment, of course, is now, while the tools you’ll need are readily available.
It’s important to recognize that the benefits of doing these things aren’t limited to the people who do them. The logic here is the same that makes airlines tell you to put on your own oxygen mask before trying to help anyone else get theirs on; you’re not going to be able to help anyone else survive the crises of the approaching deindustrial age unless you’ve taken care of your own basic needs first. If you’ve already learned the skills and made the adjustments the end of abundant energy requires, you can show other people how to make the same changes. The experience of the 1970s shows that, in the presence of the sort of hard economic incentives rising energy prices bring, many more people will embrace necessary lifestyle changes than not.
The same principle works on a wider scale as well. Critics of conservation programs often point to the Jevons Paradox as an argument against trying to save energy. First described by the 19th century economist William Stanley Jevons, this holds that when new technology allows a resource to be used more efficiently, the amount of the resource being used goes up, not down, because the increased efficiency makes it cheaper compared to alternatives. This is only true, however, when the only limit on using the resource is how much it costs. When the resource itself is running short due to physical limits, increases in efficiency blunt the impact of the shortage by making up some of the shortfall, and prevent the price from rising as far and fast as would otherwise happen.
In the opening years of the deindustrial age, this will be crucial. The longer the world’s remaining fossil fuel reserves can be stretched out and used to cushion the decline of industrial civilization, the less traumatic and chaotic the transition will be. Every gallon of gas and kilowatt of electricity that doesn’t have to be spent on household use will be available for trains that bring grain from farms to cities, factories that build wind turbines and solar panels, and a hundred other desperate necessities. The same factors that made gasoline rationing and victory gardens essential during the Second World War will play at least as vital a role in the forced transition to sustainability ahead of us.
Energy Predicaments and Prospects - John Michael Greer
Published on 13 Sep 2006 by The Archdruid Report
First part of a nine-part series
Last week’s post on this blog argued that four main trends – declining energy production, economic breakdown, collapsing public health, and political turmoil – define the framework upon which our future will take shape. I promised then that the following posts would go through these in more detail. We’ll start here with the top of the list, the approaching energy crisis. This week, I’ll try to sketch out the energy future waiting in the wings; next week, I’ll outline specific responses to that future that individuals can set in motion right now.
Of all the many aspects of the predicament of industrial society, the peak of world petroleum production will likely have the most drastic impact in the short and middle term. Now it’s true, of course, that plenty of other resources are also running short worldwide, from topsoil and fresh water to dozens of minor but economically important minerals. In the latter days of a system designed and built to pursue the delusion of infinite material growth on a finite planet, shortages are inevitable, but no other globally traded commodity is as central to the world’s industrial economies as oil, or faces so imminent and irreversible a decline.
Thus the end of the age of cheap oil promises a sea change in the world’s economies and societies as significant as the beginning of the fossil fuel age some three hundred years ago. Its impact can easily be overstated, though; indeed, it has been overstated by quite a few writers on the survivalist end of the peak oil community, who insist that the inevitable result of declining petroleum production will be the rapid collapse of civilization worldwide in an uncontrollable spiral of violence, anarchy, and mass death. As a result, too many people are still convinced that the only possible response to peak oil is the old fantasy of holing up in a cabin in the hills and waiting for the rubble to stop bouncing.
This is as mistaken as it is counterproductive. It’s certainly possible to dream up worst case scenarios that might conceivably result in a sudden collapse, but these scenarios run headlong into an awkward historical fact: declines in petroleum use equal to the ones we face on the downslope of Hubbert’s peak have happened many times in recent history, without producing anything like the consequences the survivalist theory predicts. In America, World War II saw gasoline rationing and sharp reductions in the use of oil throughout the civilian economy, and the energy crises of the 1970s saw steady declines in petroleum use that went on for more than a decade. Unlike the future we face today, those periods of declining petroleum use proved to be temporary, but they show that American society can use less oil without collapsing.
Overseas, far more drastic reductions in petroleum supplies and energy use have happened a good deal more often. The results have included hard times and human suffering, but the collapse of civilization? Hardly. Two world wars, the greatest depression in modern history, and plenty of less global but no less severe crises have forced individuals and economies to make do with much less for extended periods. Except in a few exceptional and very short-term situations, social order has remained intact and economies have adapted to extreme conditions, shedding energy- and resource-intensive sectors and establishing new networks to get food and other necessities to those who need them. This, rather than the total social collapse of the survivalist fantasy, is what we face in the next few decades.
Here in America, the end of cheap oil will be made more complex by another factor: a large fraction of electricity and home heating nowadays comes from natural gas, and North American natural gas reserves are depleting fast. Over the next decade or so, as the inevitable shortages hit, natural gas will price itself out of both these markets. Some writers have claimed that this will lead to the total collapse of electric power grids nationwide, but this hardly follows. As the supply of electricity decreases, prices rises, and demand goes down as people cut their usage or are disconnected for failure to pay their bills; economists call this “demand destruction.” As shortages become more severe, grid operators and governments have plenty of options to hand, ranging from mandatory conservation programs, through rationing schemes, to cutting entire sectors out of the grid so that power can be saved for other uses. None of these will allow current rates of energy use to be maintained, but all of them will cushion the descent into a deindustrial world.
Where electrical power is concerned, in fact, the 21st century is likely to look like a film of the 20th century run in reverse. As the 1930s were the decade of rural electrification in America, when electricity finally made its way to farm families nationwide, the 2010s may turn out to be the decade of rural de-electrification, when rural America goes off the grid for good. Well before 2050, electricity will be what it was in 1900, an urban amenity generated by hydroelectric, wind, and coal-fired plants, and used mostly by the wealthy and the middle classes. By 2100 most of the coal will be gone and other fossil fuels will be a fading memory, but wind and running water will remain, and cities will likely have their own sustainably powered electrical grids providing modest amounts of light and power to the homes and businesses of the well-to-do.
Transportation is a more complex matter. A transportation network of the sort we have today requires not only fuel and vehicles, but a sprawling and energy-intensive infrastructure of highways, bridges, gas stations, tanker truck fleets, storage depots, highway police, and more, all demanding constant investment. As costs soar and resources run short, expect to see that network come gradually unraveled. Rural areas far from major routes are already seeing infrastructure collapse as roads are no longer repaired and gas stations far from the freeways go out of business. As this process speeds up, resources will concentrate on critical freeway corridors and urban regions, contracting over a period of several decades until it drops below a critical value and truck transport stops being economically viable at all.
On a more local level, the private car never did make much sense except as a way to maximize employment in the manufacturing and construction sectors of the economy. Soaring gas prices will render most of American human geography worse than useless, as people no longer can afford to shuttle among retail cores, employment centers, and suburban bedroom communities many miles from one another. The “donut geography” of American urban centers, with decaying urban cores surrounded by prosperous suburbs, has already begun to reverse in many areas as middle-class families move to gentrifying urban neighborhoods, while their former suburban homes sink into poverty. Expect this trend to accelerate over the next few decades, as today’s suburbs become slum districts like those surrounding Third World cities today, and the suburban tract housing spawned by the now-deflating housing bubble turns into raw materials for the shantytowns of the permanently poor.
Trains, which require a much simpler infrastructure and use much less energy than trucks to move cargo, will be potentially viable much longer. The immediate problem here is that America’s railroad network has been subjected to many decades of malign neglect, and unless significant resources go into maintaining and upgrading it soon, it may not be able to provide a viable transportation network nationwide. Even if the railroads get the emergency investment they need, it’s an open question whether rail travel can keep going over the long term without fossil fuels. If the railroad network unravels in the same way as the highways, the social and political consequences will be immense. Lacking cheap transcontinental transport, it’s unlikely that the present United States will be able to maintain political unity for long.
The transportation network of last resort depends on water. America’s navigable waterways have suffered as much neglect as the railroads, but can be maintained and rebuilt at a much lower level of technology, and several crucial links – above all the Erie Canal and St. Lawrence Seaway, connecting the Great Lakes and the eastern seaboard – remain intact. If the railways fail, the economically viable region of America will contract by more than half, as the inland West loses any effective way to import goods or export its own produce. Still, waterways weave together the Atlantic seaboard, the Great Lakes states, and the Mississippi valley, extending north into eastern Canada and south along the Gulf Coast to Mexico’s east coast. The harsher topography of the west coast offers far fewer options for water travel; the Columbia and Sacramento watersheds connect agricultural regions in the far west to coastal ports, but a regional waterway network is out of reach even with today’s machinery, and regional and local devolution will be hard to prevent.
The end of cheap energy thus promises to remake the human geography of North America and completely reshape the lifestyles of almost everyone living on the continent. The transition to the new deindustrial society, though, will take place over decades, not overnight, as governments, businesses, and individuals scramble to deal with shrinking supplies of fossil fuel energy. So much time has been wasted, and so little done to prepare, that a great deal of human suffering and deprivation is inevitable at this point. Still, much can still be done, and most of it can be done by individuals and families working on their own. In next week’s post, I’ll talk about some of the available options.
Briefing for the Descent - by John Michael Greer
Published on 7 Sep 2006 by The Archdruid Report. Archived on 7 Sep 2006.
As evidence piles up for the reality of peak oil, and more and more people start to grapple with an issue that challenges almost every assumption our society makes about the future, the issue of what to do about it becomes harder to avoid.
Predictably, survivalists are popping up again with their one-size-fits-all answer. That answer first surfaced in the 1920s, when the Evangelical Christian belief in imminent apocalypse fused with traditional American rhetoric contrasting the rich, crowded, and wicked city with the poor, isolated, and allegedly more virtuous back country to create the first survivalist ideologies. Since then, survivalists have insisted that the only response to any crisis you care to imagine – epidemic disease, nuclear holocaust, race war, the advent of Antichrist, the meltdown of the world’s computer systems on January 1, 2000, and the list goes on – is to hole up in the woods with plenty of food and firearms, and live the frontier life while urban America crashes down in flames.
From a survivalist point of view, peak oil is simply one more reason to head for the hills. Still, it doesn’t fill the bill very well. True, the peaking of world oil production will usher in an age of rising energy costs and dwindling supplies, and that will bring plenty of economic, social, political, and demographic problems in its train, but I have yet to see anyone make a reasonable case that these problems will cause civilization to collapse all at once. We’re facing decline, not apocalypse, and in the face of a gradual decline unfolding over a century or more, a strategy relying on canned beans and M-16s in a cabin in the woods is a distraction at best. A more realistic view, and more useful strategies, can be found readily enough by turning from the macho fantasies of surivalists to the facts of the industrial world’s predicament. Though the future we face is not an apocalypse, four horsemen still define the most likely scenario.
First out of the starting gate is declining energy availability. Sometime between now and 2010, world petroleum production peaks, falters, and begins an uneven but irreversible descent. North American natural gas supplies start their terminal decline around the same time. Some of the slack can be taken up by coal, wind and other renewables, nuclear power, and conservation, but not all. As oil depletion accelerates, and other resources such as fissionable uranium and Eurasian natural gas hit their own production peaks, the shortfall widens, and many lifestyles and business models that depend on cheap energy become nonviable.
The second horseman, hard on the hooves of the first, is economic contraction. As petroleum production begins to decline, energy prices skyrocket as nations, regions and individuals engage in bidding wars driven to extremes by rampant speculation. The global economy, which made economic sense only in the context of the artificially low oil prices of the 1990s, comes apart at the seams, driving many import- and export-based industries onto the ropes, setting off a wave of bankruptcies and business failures, and causing shortages of many consumer products, all the way down to such essentials as food and clothing. Soaring energy prices have the same effect more directly in many areas of the domestic economy. Unemployment climbs to Great Depression levels and poverty becomes widespread.
The third horseman, following the second by a length or two, is collapsing public health. As poverty rates spiral upwards, shortages and energy costs impact the food supply chain, energy intensive health care becomes unaffordable for all but the obscenely rich, and global warming and ecosystem disruption drive the spread of tropical and emerging diseases, malnutrition and disease become major burdens. People begin to die of what were once minor, treatable conditions, and chronic illnesses such as diabetes become death sentences as medicines price themselves out of reach. Death rates soar as rates of live birth slump, launching the first wave of population contraction.
The fourth horseman, galloping along in the wake of the first three, is political turmoil. What political scientists call “liberal democracy” is a system in which competing elite groups buy the loyalty of sectors of the electorate by handing out economic largesse. That system depends on abundant fossil fuels and the industrial economy they make possible. Many of today’s political institutions will not survive the end of cheap energy, and the changeover to new political arrangements will likely involve violence. International affairs face similar realignments as nations whose power and influence depend on access to abundant, cheap energy fall from their present positions of strength, while “backward” nations find their less energy-dependent economies becoming a source of strength rather than weakness in world affairs. If history is any guide, these power shifts will work themselves out on the battlefield.
The most important thing to remember about all four of these factors is that they’re self-limiting in the middle term. As energy prices soar, economies contract, and the demand for energy decreases, bringing prices back down. As the global economy comes apart, human needs remain, and local economies take up the slack as best they can with the resources on hand, producing new opportunities and breathing new life into moribund sectors of the economy. As public health fails, populations decline, taking pressure off all other sectors of the economy. As existing political arrangements collapse, finally, new regimes take their place, and like all new regimes these can be counted on to put stability at the top of their agendas. Thus we’re facing a period of crisis perhaps a quarter century long, followed by a period of renewed stability, with another round of crises waiting in the wings. Historically speaking, this is how civilizations fall, in a stair-step process alternating periods of crisis with breathing spaces at progressively lower levels of economic and political integration.
This is the predicament we face. Fortunately for us, it’s a familiar one for our species. None of the four horsemen I’ve just described are new arrivals on the scene; our great-grandparents knew them well, and today they are familiar to the vast majority of our species. Only the inhabitants of the world’s industrialized societies have had the opportunity to forget about them, and then only during the second half of the 20th century. Before then, most people knew how to deal with their presence, and those strategies remain viable today. The one hitch is that we have to be ready to put them into practice. Since the world’s governments have by and large dropped the ball completely, it’s up to individuals to get ready for the future ahead of us. Each of the four horsemen requires a different response, and so different preparations will be needed for each.
To cope with the first horseman,reducing energy use is the core strategy. The less energy you need to keep yourself alive and comfortable, the easier you can cope when energy costs spin out of control. Minor tinkerings aren’t going to be enough, though; you need to pursue the sort of comprehensive changes in energy use pioneered so successfully in the 1970s. Plan on cutting your energy use by half, to start with, and be ready to cut it further as needed. That means significant changes in lifestyle for most people, of course. In particular, commuting by car has to become a bad memory, and if this requires you to move, get a new job, or change your lifestyle, that’s what it requires. Get rid of your car if you can; if you can’t, trade in your gas hog for a light, efficient compact, and keep it in the garage under a tarp except when you actually need it. While you’re at it, practice coping with blackouts, brownouts, and other forms of energy shortage; they’ll be frequent visitors in the future.
To cope with the second horseman, choosing a viable profession forms the essential step. Most of the jobs in America today don’t produce necessary goods and services, and most goods and many ervices used in America today aren’t produced here. This mismatch promises massive economic disruptions during the crisis period, as an economy and a work force geared to sales, retail, and information processing collides with a new economic reality that has little room for these but a desperate need to produce food, clothing, and basic technologies. Anyone prepared to step into a viable economic role in this new reality has a much better chance of surviving, or even thriving. You need to choose a craft that can be done with modest energy inputs, and makes something people need or want badly enough to buy even in hard times. Think of market gardening, garment sewing, home appliance repair, and beer brewing as examples. You’ll need to get your training and tools in advance, of course, and the sooner you hang out your shingle the better, even if it’s just a hobby-business patronized by your friends until the crises hit.
To cope with the third horseman, taking charge of your own health is the central task. Modern medicine is one of the most energy- and resource-intensive sectors of the economy, and it’s already priced itself out of reach of nearly half of all Americans. By the time the first wave of crises is well under way, you can assume that your only health care is what you can provide for yourself. Plan on learning about preventive medicine and sanitation, taking wilderness first aid classes, and arranging for do-it-yourself health care in any other way you can. Don’t neglect alternative health care methods, either; while there’s some quackery in the alternative field, there’s also much of value, and the denunciations of alternative health care issued by the medical establishment are simply attempts to protect market share. Finally, get used to the inevitability of death. you probably won’t live as long as you used to expect, and if you need high-tech medical help to stay alive, you’ll die as soon as that stops being available. Death is simply part of the human condition. The stark terror of death that haunts people in industrial societies is a luxury a deindustrializing world can’t afford.
To cope with the fourth horseman, community networking provides the necessary response. This doesn’t mean the sort of Utopian projects that were tried, and failed so dismally, during the Sixties; it means the proven and effective approaches that have been used for hundreds of years by people who learned that working together is an essential tool for survival. If you’ve participated in a block watch, shopped at a farmers market, or belonged to a community service organization, you’ve taken part in community networking activities. In the future, local citizens will need to maintain basic community services such as sanitation, dispute resolution, and public safety during times when government no longer functions. Getting to know your neighbors, and participating in local community organizations, helps build connections that will make the ad hoc arrangements needed in a crisis a viable possibility.
Each of these strategies deserves further discussion on its own, of course. I’ll go into much more detail here in the weeks to come.
http://www.energybulletin.net/20157.html
Miramar Continues to Infill Gap Areas at Madrid and Extend Naartok East
Thursday September 21, 4:04 pm ET
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/060921/0165615.html
Oromonte Resources drills more gold intersections on its Nambija project in Southern Ecuador
Thursday September 21, 2:46 pm ET
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnw/060921/oromonte_nambija_proj.html?.v=1
Goldmarca drilling hits high grade zone at the Condor Gold Project Ecuador intersecting 284 metres of metres of 2.75 grams per tonne of gold including an intercept of 98 metres of 6.05 grams per tonne of gold
Thursday September 21, 4:01 pm ET
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnw/060921/goldmarca_drilling.html?.v=2