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Great news. I'm not sure investors will realize the significance of todays PR, but thats one more step closer to a big pay-off for long term holders.
The short interest increased 610% which explains the drop in the share price. The shorts see that the trade is working and they just keep piling on to take out the weak hands. I've never understood why the buyers of the last financing or other institutional investors in the stock allow the share price to get pummeled.
Do you know if the re-inspection has to occur before UK marketing authorization? Are they going to make an announcement once the inspection is complete?
The stock has fallen so fast that I'm in it for the long haul.
Thanks for the update.
Somebody call the company and have them send out an SOS message. Pretty impressive the way they've taken this down. Where is the bottom?
Played golf today instead of watching the trading. I've been questioning my investment in JAV like everyone else, but after reading the May/17th Motley fool article it gave me some confidence in my decision. I may even add some shares this week.
Fortis was one of the co-managers for the public offering in May/07. I guess the buyers @ $6.00 were pissed since their now bagholders so Fortis felt obligated to initiate coverage.
Doesn't get much uglier then the 1 month chart, hopefully we can make a stand @ $5.00.
Urchin Capital - I'm not sure if I've ever heard of the company. Do you know if they have a good reputation covering biotechs?
"Stock weakness", I see you also posed this question on the biotech values board.
I don't see any difference in JAV then any other small biotech stock. The early money rode the momentum, has taken profits, and now the stock is trying to find a bottom for the next leg. Its dead money, but that can change over night once they start announcing more progress on the clinical milestones.
We need to get the re-inspection, UK approval, and then the momentum should start building as the EU approval nears. Once these hurdles have been reached, approval for Dyloject and Ketamine in the US should keep the positive flow going.
100% gain in six months is possible if everything goes as planned, but we could always get blindsided.
Buy 500 shares at $5.36, sell 400 @ $5.35 & 100 @ $5.33. They just walk this one down trying to create more selling.
Its going to take more volume to take out the flippers. Best case scenario from watching the recent trading activity is that their trying to wear out the retail and accumulate shares instead of exit.
KERX - after scanning the finances I bet those dirty shorts are pressuring the stock. Cash burn $20 million a qtr., 1yr till trial results, and only $70 million on the balance sheet after this qtr., = secondary. The short is trying to create max dilution by driving down the price.
25% shares short and increasing.
"DOW at 14000 & biotechs" - This is a partial reprint from an article David Miller posted at Minyanville which may give an explanation.
David Miller Jul 13, 2007 2:00 pm
I'm feeling a biotech snapper!
Acquisition Prices Go Up
I've been banging on the idea for some time that pharma needs to acquire new products either by partnering or acquisition to replace the 25% of revenue that will be lost to patent expirations by 2009. This necessity has me wanting to avoid pharma and biopharma, skewing towards smaller biotechnology stocks. I've admittedly been way early on this, but I wanted to point out an interesting development.
In October 2006, Merck (MRK) announced it was purchasing RNAi company Sirna for $1.1 bln. This was not a licensing deal, but a complete acquisition.
This week, Roche spent $346 mln in cash to acquire a non-exclusive license from the other major RNAi company, Alnylam (ALNY). If products actually come out of the deal, Alnylam could earn up to $1 bln from the deal.
October 2006, $1.1 bln to buy an RNAi company. July 2007, $1 bln to get non-exclusive rights.
That's price inflation for you.
Personally, I think these are dumb prices because I don't think any of these RNAi drugs will make it to market before their key patents run out. We simply don't know how to deliver the darn things yet. But I certainly wouldn't get in the way of the price gains as the technology is exceptionally useful on the lab bench and that always creates excitement there might be more there (see also gene therapy in the 1990s).
Short interest
I'm speaking to an MBA class next Monday about biotechnology and the public markets. The speaker ahead of me, VentiRx's Rob Hershberg, will discuss the latest trend in biotech startups towards "lean companies," where a core group of a half-dozen managers farm all their work out to contract players to save money.
My assignment is to give some reasons why public valuations are so far below those in the private sector. There are some good fundamental reasons, but one you simply can't leave out is the monster short interest.
The NASDAQ Biotech Index (NBI) now represents 13% of all NASDAQ short interest, up from just 10.75% in 2004. That doesn't sound like much until you realize the NBI is about 5% of total NASDAQ market cap or that between January 2004 and the latest measure NASDAQ short interest has gone from 4.7 bln shares short to 9.2 bln short. I'll point out that the NBI holds steady around 170 companies, making the per-company impact of this growth in short interest even more significant.
Get your lineup cards ready
If the macro effort on the part of the bears to break the market based upon next week's subprime mark to market event fails to work, we might see an early end to the seasonality in the biotech market. Recall that in biotech you can sell in June after ASCO and not really pay much attention to what's going on until September.
If the overall market stays hot, we might not see that seasonality come into full bloom. Now might be a good time to start thinking less about beaches and more about your biotech investing line-up card for the fall.
I mentioned to a colleague the other day that biotech valuations were depressed. He expressed skepticism. I'll note that the NBI is still 8% below where it was in August 2001. That's no real movement in 6 years! As a comparison, since August 2001 (through the end of last month):
DJIA = +30.10%
NASDAQ = +33.73%
S&P-500 = +28.04%
Russell 2000 = +73.28%
AMEX Biotech Index = +47.58%
In my mind, the only question is how long that spring will remain compressed. Six years is an awful long time. Remember, this index can move. After enduring a horrific 2002 (-46%), the NBI was up 45% in 2003.
rfj, is a bigger player then my 10K shares so he may be throwing out some size bids to test the market. If you were just watching the trades then you won't get an accurate picture.
"tens of thousands of hidden shares for sale" So what your saying is that their trying to get you to chase the stock? Sounds like you think someones exiting and its not trading activity controlling the stock movements.
I'll give it a shot. The stock was trending down prior to the CC, but he didn't help since it brought up the possibility of delays. We have the re-inspection, Carr's positive but you never know. Then he gave better guidance concerning the nasal ketamine and some may have anticipated an earlier filing for approval. Dr. Carr mentioned the next PR would concern nasal ketamine. We know ketamine is not going to get approval till late 2008 so we need news on Dyloject. The sooner we see EU or UK marketing approval the better.
So you never mention any delays even if you know there bound to occur, say your looking at new opportunities to expand the pipeline and partnership opportunities. Leave the shorts and traders guessing so they can't take profits.
VPHM - Its one of the more undervalued biotechs if you believe that no generic competition is on the horizon and the IDIX news further justifies a higher stock price. The shorts are about to be in the same mode as the FDA.
VPHM - I never believed that the FDA was corrupt, but after reading the legal petition seeking to stay approval of any ANDA's that reference Vancocin I've changed my opinion. Its better then any mystery novel you've ever read.
http://www.viropharma.com/OGDpetition/VancocinLegalSubmisionFINAL.pdf
"I happen to know why the price dumped last time and it won't happen this time"
Can you give us a hint so we'll understand the trading?
"I just picked up 6000 shares at 5.49", are you trying to tick me off since your basis is now below mine? Just kidding.
I had a few of my biotech holding sell-off today. I don't know if its because of option expiration week or the markets about to take a dive. SGEN down .36, that dang ARIA down another .41 ($5.16) and I thought I was smart buying at $5.60, ISIS down .61 thankfully I sold half last week and I'll be buying again, RPRX down .26, and I can't forget the .30 hit JAV got today.
Oh well, I just transferred some more money for bargain hunting.
The trading action in this one is getting old pretty quick. I don't know about you, but I'd be thrilled to end this "opportunity to get shares cheap" period.
What info are we expecting regarding ketamine? I would much rather see a PR that the re-inspection was complete or UK approval. I bet Dr. Carr wishes he never made his closing remark concerning the next PR.
ULGX - "if the procedure is as painless as the co. reports" Please put me to sleep if I'm going to undergo a TURP procedure. I don't see how putting something up your urethra is ever painless.
"Anyone who subscribes to BSR" You should say anyone who subscribes to BSR knows that he's lost all since of objectivity when it comes to the company.
He gives them a pass on everything including the insider selling. If you go back and look at the April/5th alert he clearly breaks one of his rules and rationalizes why he's doing so. When DNDN did the recent financing he breaks his rules again and rationalizes the reasons for doing so.
If you made money following his advice on DNDN then its easy to overlook his non-objectivity, but as a subscriber and someone who has never held a position in DNDN I disagree.
OT- Drunks falling from the skies.
Falling man breaks fan’s neck at Yankee game
Robinson recovering from injuries; family thinks offender was drunk
NEW YORK - A tourist who suffered a broken neck at Yankee Stadium when another fan fell on him is recovering from his injuries.
Paul Robinson, 53, of Kirkland, Wash., was sitting in the stadium’s steep upper deck with his wife and 13-year-old son last Sunday when an unidentified fan standing above him took a violent tumble down several rows of seats.
“His neck is in a big brace. He’s not paralyzed. Luckily, the surgery was very, very successful,” said Steven Osborne, a spokesman for Montefiore Medical Center. “And this is a miracle, because that vertebrae, if you go a fraction of an inch, you’re paralyzed, or you can’t breathe.”
The man crashed into Robinson’s head, breaking his vertebrae, then came to rest in the next row.
“It felt like my head had been ripped off,” Robinson told the Daily News from his hospital bed.
EMT’s took Robinson to the hospital, where surgeons put a screw in his neck to help it heal.
The man who fell was dragged away by his friends and never bothered to apologize or check how badly Robinson was hurt. The family believes he was drunk.
“I found it odd that they didn’t even ask if Paul was OK,” Robinson’s wife, Kathy, told the Daily News. “It’s very steep up there, but if it was an innocent trip, they would ask if Paul was OK.”
The family was on an East Coast baseball pilgrimage at the time of the accident. They had planned to go next to the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown and then head to Boston for a game at Fenway Park
The accident was similar to one that happened in April during a Mets game at Shea Stadium.
In that case, a 58-year-old woman suffered a broken back when a very large drunk crashed into her during a fall. The woman, who cracked several vertebrae, is now suing the team and its beer vendor.
Can we get approval before the re-inspection?
JAV taking off, dang it I was to chicken to buy more shares this morning.
Spartex, I was looking at the July/$12.50 calls & puts. Looks like there is twice the number of calls to puts. Do you remember if the ratio was similar the last two months. I want a few more shares, but it may be smarter to wait for option expiration if the trading follows the same pattern.
It looks like they need to drop it back to the $12.50 number again.
We can make another comparison between JAV & RPRX. The share price gets jacked around on minimal volume. Down over .20 on 46K shares.
Don't count your money yet. The trading was pretty weak considering the markets strength, but at least we ended positive.
"So why is the stock down today?" I'm guessing short term profit takers. If you look at the chart it shows a > 25% gain since march. Lazard notes that a partnership was anticipated, but not to this extent. I'm in the opinion that MRK validates the science and once the short term players exit then the stock will continue its rise. It took awhile for SGEN to move after the deal for SGN-40 so I'm looking for the same thing to play out.
"Ariad's stock rose 24% in recent premarket activity to $7.50". Amazing that I bought the stock at a 5% discount ($5.60's) after the open.
It could be setting up for a nice upward move. We're still $2 less then our 52 week highs which is ridiculous considering the recent clinical results and the need for new drugs by large pharma.
Androxal restores normal testicular function while on drug, once the pt. is taken off Androxal they will revert back to their previous condition.
JP has to give both sides of the story when he's making a presentation, but my impression has always been that he didn't think the FDA would require QOL's due to the unique MOA in comparison to other testosterone replacements. I also think he would have already signed a EU licensing deal if he thought QOL's would be required. By delaying until the regulatory path is finalized he's maximizing the value.
Hey, we've got a I-hub board. Can I get a loan? That 40 cent drop today was brutal.
JAV- down another .39 as I post. What the heck is going on with this stock? I thought the addition to the Russell and other indexes would give it some support, but I've been fooled.
Have you had the opportunity to listen to RPRX's R&D presentation in January? There is some discussion on why the FDA is looking at QOL endpoints and why RPRX may not have to address QOL's.
JP doesn't think QOL's will be required for approval and its just a guessing game until the FDA makes a decision regarding the regulatory path.
ISIS - the Needham upgrade was not related to the ANLY deal eventhough ANLY licenses some of ISIS's RNAi technology. ISIS has reported impressive Phase II clinical results related to their cholesterol drug, ISIS 301012. Management told Needham that they are in discussion with 12 firms concerning partnering the drug. It going to be large.
JAV- Good its no fun going down in a sinking ship by yourself. I added some more today also.
(in response to PM, looks like I need to sign back-up)
I'm getting a VB from JAV, but luckily I've got ISIS to plug the leak and RPRX is showing some strength.
Needham also reports that over a dozen potential partners are in discussions for ISIS 301012. Phase 2 dose-escalation data, FDA meeting, and the start of Phase III in the 2H07 for the 301012 program.
Upgraded to strong buy from buy at Needham with a $16 price target. ISIS should be trading close to $20 after the ISIS 301012 partnership announcement.