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Amazing indeed. Was the profit sharing deal in situation of multiple generics getting approved that bad, that GS is largely discounting MNTA's pipleine & above all its proprietry platform ?
Amen to your last comment definitely. I do hope MNTA's platform (its IP portfolio) is vendicated with FOB soon. Partnership is still a key for such a large program.
I think MNTA is in the position as VPHM was before the generic competition to their Vancocin brought the stock down. With no clear strategy on how they are going to snare a FOB partner or what they plan to do with M118 program (why no push ?) T-NOX overhang is hanging over like a thick smog over LA.
The good news is at least the floor is in (14.50). It will be a good trading stock for a while. Every quarter when they report stellar earnings, there will be a spike which will settle down eventually as street realizes it will last only as long T-NOX doesn't get approved. Just my 2 cents.
I didn't mean that. It's simply the timing of the whole thing makes a small retail investor like me wonder.
Teva being on the record for 'deeply getting disappointed' if the approval doesn't come by end of this year. Shows some degree of confidence or may just be a bluff on Teva's part. But the expectation was PPS for MNTA will pick up if no approval is received.
$14.30 you saw was my sale of 5000 shares. This offering below the M-nox pre-approval PPS is bit like giving away the farm.
Also on second thought, the timing of the sale (now with low price) looks like they want to cash before TEVA gets approved making the odds of TEVA approval by end of this year bit higher. If not why the hurry ?
On a side note, it appears MNTA went offensive with their law suit which ostensibiliy helped prop up the PPS (which it did briefly) to ensure the offering can be made at higher price.
To be fair, CW did hint the possibility of financing FOB internally. From 3Q CC transcript:
We plan to expand and develop our follow-on biologics portfolio through collaborations as well as through our own investment. And I'm engaged in productive discussions with several companies, who are committed to applying our innovative technology to the FOB field.
NOw which one they see as more important...M118 or FOB..looks like the later.
Clearly this guy from Cancord has no clue..on the same research note saying Teva may have their approval in H1/11 ? unless it's year 3011 he is talking about
today's volume is way high with nice spike...smells some positive insider news has leaked out. it could be their P3 trial results...
expecting the stock to go 5+ short term..
Tarceva ?
Exactly..also lot of folks believe the 'FOOLS' and as such they will not be aggressive in investing in MNTA regardless these 'FOOLS' know squat about what they are writing..
I expect MNTA to pick up PPS significantly early Jan as TEVA has expressed 'deep disappointment' if not approved by 2010 end (their generic).
Would you share which drug is that ? TIA
Teva on their recent CC indicated that they will be 'very disappointed' if approval doesn't come for their Lovenox generic by this year end.
It will be interesting to see what the market reaction is to MNTA PPS as we approach year end.
I think TEVA dug their own grave by timelining. Having waited this long, what's another 2 months. I think we can expect TEVA (rank & file) to be very disappointed starting 12:00 AM on Jan 1, 2011
Exactly !! And some Motley Fool (and you wonder why they call themselves fools) will post some rubbish without doing any homework...see below..I bet some of the downdraft on the price today was due to this article..
"Sounds cheap, no? There's just one problem. Those earnings are based solely on the fact that there aren't any other generic competitors, which allows Novartis to price the drug at close to the price of branded Lovenox. If the Food and Drug Administration approves a pending application from Teva Pharmaceutical (Nasdaq: TEVA) and another from Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, which is partnered with Watson Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: WPI), Novartis will have to drop the price, and Momenta's share changes from a profit share to a royalty.
Without any indication of when or if those applications will be approved, investors don't have much other choice than to price in the possibility that Momenta's momentum will be stopped and enjoy the insane profits while they last."
FYI, Ritu Baral has been pounding that AVNR will get approved; she picked up good credibility with that call. So I hope she comes out with report on MNTA with some good info. on Teva's generic case not holding water.
CRL for BIOD..News is out...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/FDA-Issues-Complete-Response-prnews-1215523873.html?x=0&.v=1
Yep..it's a pity that guys like AF can have such a strong influence over pps. And there is no SEC check on whether he is long or short before writing such an article regardless of his self disclosure. I bet he calls his 'distant cousins' just before his write-up is sent to the press.
AF somehow comes across as party booper many times and 'mis-reading' AVNR would be viewed by many as one notch lower on his credibility
Remember their Shelf Registration. HOpe they are not dumb to announce a placement sub-5 dollars next week.
ASTM, could it be a baby MNTA ?
My interest got piqued recently in ASTM especially on their upcoming events related to CLI trial results. Very innovative approach to the treatment using their proprietary cell-processing technology to expand naturally occurring populations of stem and progenitor cells derived from the patient's bone marrow.
It could be next MNTA, if their upcoming "RESTORE-CLI Trial" results are successful.
Disclosure: Long ASTM on my starter portfolio
Yes. Now I have to find what all other BODs he is on
I am holding. But AVNR registered their shelf offering recently. so hope they are not stupid to sell to investors so soon
pcrutch, my deep appreciation for all your excellent DD !! And congradulations !!
WHERE IS PIANO BENCHPRESS ????.....lol..
I expect to open at 8+ minimum. Remember ton of shorts would be sweating over the weekend. Let them go to hell...
I bet someone within FDA made a phone call from Men's room. The crooks are everywhere but the good news we have a pattern now. Usually when there is a bear raid on the day of the approval, we all know now that someone is covering their short ass before the approval news hits the wirs. If it were to be denied, he has his sweet time to cover; so no incentive to do the bear ride.
I truly wish and will light handful of candles and prey that every short who was part of this illegal game is deep fried like a pork skin..
Pcrutch, How well is ASTM's financial position ? Would they likely to take advantage of sharp increase in PPS to do any shelf offerring ? TIA
ghmm, your posts are well received and valued by many. I think ASTM has been so long (along with STEM etc) that recent activity has kindled some above average interest. ASTM has a long way to go but atleast they are on the right direction
Now that Lupenox is Teva's candidate for the Lovenox generic, per DD's post it's not going to be approved. So hopefully one of the WS firms points out the unlikelyhood of Teva's approval and accordingly raise the MNTA's pps target well above current 30+.
Remember not to forget the party booper, Sam Bernestin who wrote BS article on Teva's supposedly imminent approval for their version of the generic.
I hope the analysts raise their target to 40+ range upon the earnings and forecast information. Secondly more institutions and funds need to buy. Almost a 50 cents swing everyday shows it's still a traders play at this point.
You forgot to add that guy (forgot his name) who wrote totally unsubstantiated article of Teva winning the approval in very near future that brought the pps from 26+ all the way down to high teens where we mostly are languishing even today....
$4 after approved ? WTF, is Adam F talking about. With that kind of upside, who would want to take the risk. He is one big SHORTIE...
I had 20K shares...but sold most at not much profit..keeping 5k for the D-day...somehow tempting to buy back more..
So I assume you have already sold and moving on ?
pcrutch, I am frankly bit surprised to see you hanging there as you expected 50% approval chance, no ?? Your posts in general came across as not too optimistic on approval. So wonder what made you change your mind. TIA
I agree on the second part..this will be 10+ stock before the year end...
Who gave ths BS story of CEO buying at 4.20 ? It's a option to buy at that price which expires in 10/2020. Normal sign-on bonus for a new CEO. I won't read anything bullish or otherwise into this.
Just an option to purchase at 4.20 and the option expires sometime in 2020.
Sign-on bonus for the new CEO. nothing more...he did not buy anything yet..