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Is your projection down to 64cents?
Not tasty enough yet. Around ~.66 is when I would restart accumulating.
Delicious entry point.
Back up the truck if its @30c
Not me. I'm waiting for it to breach the 66c level so I can resume accumulating haha.
So he violated the rule of never gambling money you can't afford to lose? Jeeez
Biden... bro... you really gonna let mad max push you around?!?!?!
Ahahaha
Well if Calhoun is nominated before the bell today, JPS would probably rocket.
Am I suppose to be JB?
But you know what I find the MOST interesting from the CBO report right? Its the fact that the govt acknowledges that they themselves MAY have to take a haircut before the JPS takes a haircut.
"Redemption of Shareholders’ Claims in CBO’s Model
CBO’s model incorporates the judgment that in scenarios in which the GSEs’ common-stock sale did not raise
enough funds to redeem the full face value of both the
senior preferred and junior preferred shares, the Treasury
would take a reduction (known as a haircut) in the value
of its senior preferred stake before requiring junior preferred shareholders to do so.30 That outcome would be
inconsistent with the priority of interest between junior
and senior preferred shares. But it recognizes that changing the GSEs’ commitments to junior preferred shareholders would be difficult outside a receivership scenario,
in which the Treasury, as owner of the senior preferred
shares, also owned the GSEs’ common stock (through its
warrants). "
On the labeled page 13.
Aside from that, they seem to also recognize the fact that the lower the capital requirement, the better off the govt will come out with a windfall... which re-enforces the govt's interest as being somewhat more aligned with the commons that most would think.
Gotta give credit to Tim Howard for calling it as he sees it here.
"jtimothyhoward
SEPTEMBER 15, 2021 AT 8:17 PM
My reaction to this re-proposal is that it’s the FHFA bureaucracy, led by Sandra Thompson, saying, “We know former Director Calabria’s capital rule is very unpopular, but we can fix it. See?” With the implication, of course, that there is no need not to keep Ms. Thompson in place."
They laid out the scenarios in the report. Page 15 (retained earnings until 2023) and Page 17 (retained earnings until 2025).
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-08/56496-GSE.pdf
The commentary is just for show. They're going to do whatever the hell they want at the end anyway haha...
But yes they probably started working on it the day Thompson was named acting director.
Also to those thinking the whole thing should be scrapped... I don't think it would happen while Thompson is there since she was an internal placement and not from an external source. She definitely worked on it with catman. She's probably just changing the parts that she doesn't like but overall agrees with most of it. Just my opinion.
Was wondering why haven't heard from holden. Weak sauce. He folded!
Is amanda the female carlos?
That would be completely in line with the CBO report. They ran through scenarios of 3% capital, 4% capital and 6% capital. It seemed like 3% was the lowest they would be willing to go.
In that case expect retained earnings to continue to 2023 prior to capital raises.
JPS gonna hit $5 before the end of the month... Mark my post.
I was done building my FnF common/pref position last week. Not touching these guys anymore unless JPS stays below 1.50 or commons under 50 cents.
Time to start working on next project. FARMER MAC (AGM). Since we all love GSEs so much... lets venture into the agricultural MBS business (:
They currently hold ~6% of market share. Watch them start gobbling everything up... its not even a duopoly, its a monopoly.
I'm half your age. I can still dollar cost average into SPY and still end up ok by the time I get to your stage.
The risk to go to zero vs the potential reward is well worth it IMO at least for me.
Well, you should know by now that nothing is ever linear.
There is no alternative. Thats the only fundamental that really matters (:
There may not be much excitement until 2023. I think either way they will follow that CBO outline. So retained earnings for next 2 years. The court cases will ride out until then as well but this will be an administrative solution.
I'll continue to accumulate a little each week if FNMAT/FMCKJ stays below 1.50... Will do commons if they drop below 50 cents. Whatever is on sale that week. Otherwise, will allocate elsewhere for the week.
For all of those who haven't read the report yet... you probably should.
Based on the CBO timeline, its retained earnings for 3 years 2023 or 5 years 2025. But I think if the current administration wants to book in the windfall they would do it during this term. Although if they feel like they can win the next election, they might punt it back to 2025. It all depends.
Last but not least if you read the recap scenarios they laid out for 2023 vs 2025 and the 3% capital rule vs 4.5% capital rule and 6%.
- The US treasury seems to be WILLING to take a haircut to make the JPS whole (Which I find incredibly interesting)
- The goobermint also seems to acknowledge the fact that with a lower capital % the US GOVT will book a greater windfall. This tells me that if they are strapped for cash they may even lower it to below 3%... perhaps to 2.5% as Tim howard suggests.
- They also seem to acknowledge that there would be multiple scenarios where the govt would not get the full SPS or the full warrants. Which is encouraging. The possibilities!
Well no regrets that I'm more heavily weighted towards freddie~
It's time to move on Bradford. I've managed to build up enough of a position in both commons and jps over the post-scotus ruling that I'm perfectly content with.
Today marks the end of an era in my life. It is time for me to start allocating all future resources (capital and energy) away from FnF and into other ventures.
Since we're so well acquainted with GSEs... could I possibly introduce you to farmer mac. FnF's cousin in the farmland business. 1B market cap but with 5% market share of the farmland secondary mortgage business.
Last but not least... I may be around less often here but I'm never selling. I don't think I'm wrong and I'm going to take this to the grave with me.
My limit is 1.75 for JPS to buy and 0.50 for commons. Anything higher than that I'm allocating elsewhere for the week.
I'm already content with my position size. Anything else is just extra cherries on top. Regardless, I'll probably vanish from this board by the end of Sept and just let time do its job. Its been long enough and its time to move on.
I remember he did an interview back in like 2014/15 when the reporter asked him if he was lobbying hard and etc... he responded nope, none. Absolutely nothing? You're just going to sit there and wait?
He said yes.
I knew he wouldn't sell.
Fundamentals:
- TINA
- PERPETUAL NON-EXPIRING OPTION!
I see no reason for dividends to resume for JPS. It will most likely be a conversion offering IMO. Now how favorable or just neutral will depend on common PPS at the time of offering.
Resuming JPS dividends is a drain on cash flow.
Keeping JPS around also requires a larger capital raise.
1 buck common vs 1.5 buck JPS... at the moment JPS is a better value. If commons drop below 50 cents a pop, I'll resume commons accumulation.
Its interesting how they mentioned a few times in there about retaining earnings and then redeeming the JPS.
Well definitely no action for the next 30 days... labor day weekend... congress out for half of september...
Think we'll drip back down to red again?
Here we go again~ History never fails to repeat itself (:
You need to double-triple down to make the risk worth it.
Young with steady income sure... This is indeed an investment of a lifetime but unfortunately the price you have to pay for it is far too great for many to bear...
By price I mean ETFs have an expense ratio but for FnF its a 13+ year emotional roller coaster ride.
Oh Snap, buy SIGNAL. Whenever he shorts it goes green for a few days. LOL
I was willing to settle at 50-66 cents but I'll take your suggestion (:
Well congress is out till like mid september... It'll probably drip all the way down. Below $0.50 is a buy signal for me though (:
We're at the 99 cent store right now. Might have to start playing some 50 cent songs soon....
Asking implies that they would be seeking 'permission'. There is no ask.
The offer will be on the table.
All JPS holders will either take it or leave it.
The recapitalization plan will move forth with or without you.
Fannie now eligible to be sold on the shelves of the 99 cent stores?
I thought Schwartz replaced SWEENEY. Lamberth has always been around and ain't going anywhere.