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Looks like another Common savior has Rotated to JPS.
Wow, the list keeps growing. Is anyone even invested in FNMA Commons any longer?
Isn't it scary that Calabria referenced Hertz when discussing Fannie & Freddie in his Cato Institute discussion?
He's almost making a direct link to wiping out Common equity.
After all these years, we still can't fully put Receivership behind us
Swap them for Preferreds. You'll thank me later.
What percent of zero is $0.05? My calculator isn't able to do the math.
It keeps saying a $0.05 increase is infinitely greater than $0.00.
Maybe it needs some FNMA Fantasy to fix it
Commons likely see 150% returns from $2, pending the Sr. Preferred Cramdown Plan being put into action.
Jr. Preferreds offer ~300% returns to Par and have a much larger security blanket and don't really have to worry about dilution/cramdown.
Just make sure your Common position is Hedged like Ackman did with his investment
The good news is, it's coming amigos!
I'm glad JPS have a FNMA Fact Finder on their side.
The Average Joe's only have FNMA Fantasy Findings.
FNMAS +$0.10, FNMA +$0.03 <eom>
And also because of price
About those intellectual levels ...
So sell new FNMA shares to buy out the old ones?
I guess I can see that happening assuming they issue new Commons and give existing Commons Escrow Shares.
Those Escrow shares would likely trade on the Grey Market where the companies could re-buy all the shares for $0.0001 (similar to the exercise price of the Warrants).
I'm just hoping we don't get Escrow Shares while FNMA re-IPOs via new Common shares and leaves existing Commons on the OTC.
That would be devastating. But it's certainly within the realm of possibilities.
The good news is, it's coming!! We just don't know what "It" is yet
I for one am very happy I hedged my Commons with a 99.99% investment in Jr. Preferreds.
The Reverse Split will occur at time of re-IPO, not after. So the new money won't have to worry about a Reverse Split because it will have already occurred.
You reference Citi, and yet Citi was still able to attract new capital.
A RS is going to happen with damn near certainty (90+% imo). It's coming amigos!
How long does the GOV have to re-write HERA?
We need this stickied! The Mnuchin Dilution Solution.
I love it. Absolutely genius and yet 100% truthful for FNMA as well.
This has been telegraphed about as clearly as possible at this point. One would have to be blind to not see the FNMA forest for the trees. Either that, or just plain delusional.
As Barrario says, It's Coming Amigos!!
Thank you for this clarification. It's much appreciated.
FNMA Facts and all that
JPS 5x the performance of FNMA Commons today.
Volume was substantial as well.
Do you have any idea why Commons didn't perform at all today?
Isn't dilution illegal? What about a Reverse Split?
I've been reading about the lawsuits FNMA will file if Commons get diluted.
What happened today with Jr. Preferreds? Why didn't it carry over to FNMA Commons?
Oddly enough, Commons Popped this morning and people Sold the Pop (Knowing FNMA Always Drops).
But JPS started on the Lows and kept going higher and higher all day.
Is this a SCOTUS leak re: potential back-dividends and Conversion? Interesting action to say the least!
Price goes Up with buying, Down with selling. As seen with FNMA, there's always a Buyer and a Seller. You can't sell shares to the air
I see FNMAS up 5%. You must be looking at the wrong chart/feed amigo.
I wonder if this is Ackman buying more JPS to further hedge his bet on Commons.
The Rotation from FNMA Commons to Jr. Preferreds continues!
I'm sure all JPS holders would agree to that. Although, it's unfortunate that the GSEs will need to raise an additional ~$33B in Capital (highly dilutive to Commons at these prices) since the Jr. Preferreds don't count towards CET1.
If I'm JP Morgan or Morgan Stanley, I would be advising a Conversion if I had the GSE's best interests in mind; however, with them being greedy TBTF Banks, I'm sure they would be happy to raise an additional $33B since they will make more money.
$0.50 seems very high for a dividend, especially per quarter. I think a 5% annual yield is the maximum Commons will see. And I think a 3% yield is much more in line with market conditions.
That's the number I am hearing as well. Jr. Preferreds Convert to Commons at ~85% of Par at time of re-IPO, and then enjoy any upside Commons have after that.
Sounds like a Win-Win situation to me.
Disagree. Treasury returns the NWS payments over 10% (which is ~$125B), then has Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan sell the Treasury's Converted shares via the re-IPO.
Treasury keeps the money from the SPS Converted shares, SPS is then reversed on the Balance Sheets, add $125B from NWS overages, and Poof the GSEs are fully Recapitalized.
Please see kthomp's post for further clarification: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=156475106
Sr. Preferred Cramdown assures Recapitalization before Calabria's exit.
This is the only way to Recap FNMA before Biden reverses course.
It's coming amigos!
Ano re: SCOTUS decision. Does this mean everything FHFA has done must remain intact? Please help!
"The ruling eliminates the so-called “for cause” provision in Dodd-Frank but keeps the rest of the law and the agency intact. There is no impact on its past nine years of rulemakings, decisions and enforcement actions remain intact."
If SCOTUS even takes the Collins case. And it's not likely they would rule until after Trump is out of office.
This ruling is bad for Commons and neutral for Preferreds.
See more here:
Supreme Court holding that a key 1935 decision on removal/independence applies to agencies headed by multi-member commission but doesn’t extend to single director could spell trouble for the FHFA.
— Katy O'Donnell (@KatyODonnell_) June 29, 2020
Yep, SPS Cramdown now the only path forward for FNMA assuming Biden wins in November.
Those Contract Rights sure would be nice to have now (Jr. Preferreds, cough).
Tick Tock amigos.
Where's Ano? We need his "Expert" opinion.
Initial read, no bueno amigos
Sub $1.00 FNMA is still possible this year. I'm saving my dry powder to buy Jr. Preferreds after the Seila ruling.
Commons might still do well in the end, but the uncertainty is too damn high!
I also think Jr. Preferreds will Convert to Commons at the re-IPO, so I don't see a reason to own Commons outright at this time.
Hopefully we all get Treble Damages.
Not a recco
With high expectations in the Seila SCOTUS ruling for FNMA, you can already sense the irrational exuberance starting to peak.
I'm looking for the price of Commons and Jr. Preferreds to drop, regardless of which way Seila gets ruled on, as it will add a lot more uncertainty heading into the election
No bueno amigos!
you cannot declare the 3th amendment legal if the conservatorship itself is not legal
MS and JPM are big dogs who will unleash it on a decent double digits high 20s minimum IPO price.
He was referring to FNMAS, not FNMA Commons. You even quoted the text [facepalm].
FNMAS is at $7.60 today and if you bought it at $0.94 the same day you could've bought FNMA at $0.93, then you'd be up a little over 700% right now. If you bought FNMA that day, then you're up around 120%.
I'm surprised you feel that way. Considering this would remedy the Collins' plaintiffs (return everything over 10% NWS payments [~$125B back to GSEs] and eliminate the sweep), then converting the Sr. Preferreds to Commons so Treasury can still make a boatload of money.
Especially considering the crunched time line Calabria may be working with (pending Seila ruling). This seems like the path of least resistance since it's a damn near instant recap and it also eliminates all of the lawsuits besides Wash Fed.
This will likely be FNMA's Washington Federal outcome.
"Yes, you're right but you get nothing."
And then, they might even take that trophy away later on appeal.
Can we sticky these informational FNMA Facts?