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“ KB is appears to be doing a great job so far. “
————————————
Can you provide a list of Ken’s accomplishments that support your claim?
So far, besides reducing the cash burn by cutting the workforce there’s nothing of significance that Ken did.
Pearson and Justice are one person. The puppet master used this “good cop, bad cop” game to create a massive interest in the equity. Whoever created this game had a great mind and deserves a Pulitzer. I wonder if the epilogue was written and would like to take a peek into the last paragraph.
Note that Advaxis is listed as a preclinical.
Neoantigen white paper (thanks to MMS from IV):
https://bblsa.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/BB_WhitePaper-ONCTech-6_2.pdf
List of neoantigen companies:
https://bblsa.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Companies-involved-in-neoantigen-therapy-development.pdf
Advaxis is mentioned, but not highlighted. Also notice that checkpoint inhibitors highly unlikely to work for prostate cancer(see Figure 3) with 0% response rate while the cervical is 10% response rate.
Interesting read even for a GED holder.
@wmtgreeter
So, what exactly was that the most recent offering at $2.00? I guess the BOD were "buying" shares at those prices, not selling.
That would be be 600%-1,200% premium from the current share prices. Absolutely unrealistic. No potential acquirer would pay that kind of premium. I know there were one or two instances of some crazy buyouts, but those are rare exceptions, not rule.
Advaxis need to get share price up to a decent level before they can get an acceptable offer.
I'm pretty sure he made that up to attack me and attack my post when I question Mr. Salmon's thesis about the synergistic effect of AXAL and pembro.
That's really, really old news.
They cut their position by more than half in Q2:
BLACKROCK INC. 1,396,923 $2,025,000 0.00 0.00 3736 1,528,494 2.6547% 13F 2018-06-30 2018-08-09
I'm not a science type guy, I'm just a @wmtgreeter with a GED in antiprogrammedcelldeathproteinology. I hope Hovacre can clarify this issue.
However, I had an impression that the data released in May '18 at ASCO were not sufficient enough to support the claim that ADXS-PSA has a synergistic effect with Keytruda. We did not see a conclusive evidence that our construct+Keytruda (a combo) shows better results than Keytruda alone. Had we shown the combo data is (much) better than a pembro mono-therapy, then Merck would have already jumped in. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Ken needs to have something tangible before the conference call which is less than four weeks away. Otherwise, we tank hard after the call. Mark this post.
He’d better raise a cash via secondary before the call if he knows he won’t deliver.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02291055?term=Advaxis&draw=3&rank=7
They did not even bother to update the clinical trial data after the hold was lifted. This trial was doomed and now they likely pulled a plug on it. Great job!
This is what I think about a possible HOT deal.
Most likely, a potential partner would want to see how a NEO trial is going. The pharma would want to have a glimpse on the preliminary NEO data, see if the platform shows signs of efficacy and is safe. If NEO works, then likely HOT would work albeit no guarantees, of course. We know the platforms are similar, and are based on the Lm tech. The former is just more personalized than the latter, and more expensive.
If so, this potential partnership may be delayed by 6-8 months. I am not excluding a possibility of some big pharmaceutical jumping in and making offer. But the offer would be very heavily backloaded, as in long term options.
Or, we can start HOT ourselves and then get a partner after Ph1/2, but that’s highly unlikely as we do not have resources to run the trial.
The more I think why DOC was let go or quit voluntarily, the more I am inclined to believe that he was asked to leave due to the NEO fiasco. He made the following mistakes:
1) Partnered NEO prematurely;
2) Gave away the platform entirely prohibiting any future NEO platform collaboration with the other pharma;
3) Under-estimated the cost to get the platform to an IND-ready stage.
Notice how the current management over-emphasized the importance of partnering HOT platform indication-by-indication, rather than the entire platform for a single BP. Did they learned from those DOC mistakes?
While I hate to see a sub-dollar secondary offering, I believe that the management will do whatever they need to do to stay in business. Albeit a secondary is not a viable option for long suffering longs, the CEO/BOD will not have any qualms raising the cash using the shelf of about 40M shares. Remember, those shares are already approved?
During the last secondary, most "stock advocates" cheered that those 10M shares were used as a ransom payment for shorts. Maybe, as we still have about 6.5M-7M shares unaccounted for. Now that the SI is under 3M, will that ransom payment theory fly again? I do not think so. Will there be any interest from reputable buyers to grab those newly minted shares? Hardly. Therefore, the next secondary if it were to occur would attract vultures and merciless predators. The raise will be accompanied with warrants attached, and these predators will just kill the company. That's what I'm afraid of, most of all other scenarios.
Cutting workforce further would hurt this company even more. What they need to do is to announce that the upper and mid-level management voluntarily reduced their compensation by, say, 20% or so. Also, they need to forego all RSUs, and other incentive- based compensation until the financial sanity of the company is restored. I know it's very unlikely for Advaxis employees and especially management as they are not used to cutting their paychecks and bonuses.
Remember, when I, as a group of several posters here were angry with the RSUs last March/April, some stock advocates here were saying something like: "Well, they deserve those RSUs, as they are not really RSUs, but incentives...". Regardless, they issued few millions of shares just to pay themselves.
An EMA application and a subsequent withdrawal highlighted two major issues with Advaxis:
1) The misdirection of the company, a failure to identify the priorities, and failure to adequately assess the risks associated with the approval process: The management should have known the data for an EU approval was not sufficient and they should never have spent any resources to file for EMA approval. This is solely on the management.
2) A corollary from the Item 1: spending issues. They have spend too much money and human hours to prepare and file the EU application. All in vain.
Pathetic management, and pathetic outcome for the shareholders.
The problem is the company needs to survive before the data from NEO is available. That's 9 months away, and likely the NEO data will be presented at ASCO-2019. The HOT data is much further away as it's not even started.
They do not have cash to get to the NEO data. How they are going to extend the cash runway? More layoffs? Some sort of deal? Dilution? No clear answer. Therefore the markets are very pessimistic.
I wish I were short in this equity, but I never short. Do you?
I've been really frustrated and angry with the Advaxis management for a while, but it's the first time I'm getting depressed by seeing these numbers above and by any lack of execution from the "new" and "improved" management.
I see this may not end well, and I'm not alone seeing the obvious. Funds are abandoning the company in droves, yet, some here blame the share price depression on HFT manipulation and algos. Wake up, please! Hello!
If Ken can't turn this ship around heading straight into the coral reefs, we are going to sink. His grace time is running out, and he must act!
I do not know what to say here...
Here's the tally in the past 7 days per 13F reports (counted only those =>10K shares):
Total buys : 1,468 million shares
Total sells: 7,427 million shares
Difference : 5,959M shares dumped
Did you not see their filing? How do you come up with that b.s.? You are entitled to your opinion, but not your own facts.
BLK reduced their position by more than half!
BLACKROCK INC. 1,396,923 0.00 3736 1,528,494 2.6547% 13F 2018-06-30 2018-08-09
28) Goldman Sachs added 364K shares
29) Edelman sold out (dumped all 1.5M shares, so much for the conspiracy)
30) Paloma Partners new position, 183K shares
31) Marshall Wace NA LP sold out (had 44K shares)
32) WallEye Trading, sold out, had 45K shares
33) Morgan Stanley added 54K shares
34) TIAA CREF sold oud, had 100K shares
35) Millennium Mgmt, new postion, 324K shares
36) CA State Teachers Pension, sold out 59K shares
37) BoothBay Fund, new position, 103K shares
38) Teacher Advisors, sold all, had 65K shares
39) RBF Capital, new position, 30K shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC 457,403 4334 363,921 0.8692% 13F 2018-06-30 2018-08-14
PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC 0.07 143 1,500,000 0.0000% 13F 2018-06-30 2018-08-14
PALOMA PARTNERS MANAGEMENT COMPANY 183,000 1339 183,000 0.3478% 13F 2018-06-30 2018-08-14
MARSHALL WACE NORTH AMERICA L.P. 0.00 Sold All 44,519 0.0000% 13F 2018-06-30 2018-08-14
WALLEYE TRADING LLC 0.00 Sold All 45,000 0.0000% 13F 2018-06-30 2018-08-14
MORGAN STANLEY 228,373 0.00 5290 54,124 0.4340% 13F 2018-06-30 2018-08-14
TIAA CREF INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC 0.00 Sold All 99,999 0.0000% 13F 2018-06-30 2018-08-14
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC 323,615 3188 323,615 0.6150% 13F 2018-06-30 2018-08-14
CALIFORNIA STATE TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM 0.00 Sold All 58,649 0.0000% 13F 2018-06-30 2018-08-14
BOOTHBAY FUND MANAGEMENT, LLC 170,988 0.01 542 103,001 0.3249% 13F 2018-06-30 2018-08-14
TEACHERS ADVISORS, LLC 0.00 Sold All 65,212 0.0000% 13F 2018-06-30 2018-08-14
RBF CAPITAL, LLC 30,300 388 30,300 0.0576% 13F 2018-06-30 2018-08-14
26) Balyasny Asset Mgmt sold out (had 47K shares)
27) Two Sigma Securities sold out ( 11K shares)
BALYASNY ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC 0.00 Sold All 46,675 0.0000% 13F 2018-06-30 2018-08-14
TWO SIGMA SECURITIES, LLC 0.00 Sold All 11,332 0.0000% 13F 2018-06-30 2018-08-14
25) State St Corp almost sold out, liquidated 643K shares! (kept 32K shares)
Blow after a blow after a blow ...
STATE STREET CORP 31,478 0.00 3660 642,928 0.0598% 13F 2018-06-30 2018-08-14
24) DB almost sold out, sold 758K shares (kept 31K shares)
Wow ... I'm speechless.
DEUTSCHE BANK AG 30,661 0.00 4442 758,199 0.0583% 13F 2018-06-30 2018-08-14
Is that you, Ken?
No, have not see yet. Exodus? Maybe.
22) Northern Trust sold 312K shares (kept 156K shares)
23) Barclays added 42K shares (hold 62K shares)
NORTHERN TRUST CORP 155,711 0.00 3814 312,016 0.2959% 13F 2018-06-30 2018-08-14
BARCLAYS PLC 61,644 5298 41,710 0.1172% 13F 2018-06-30 2018-08-14
They have changed margin requirements, likely upped to 100%?
Margin calls to follow...
@wmtgreeter
21) Bridgeway Capital Management sold out (had 88K shares)
BRIDGEWAY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC 0.00 Sold All 87,800 0.0000% 13F 2018-06-30 2018-08-14
They want to load up with cheap shares before an imminent buyout! They know something we don't know!
Hold tight your shares, they'll be gold 0.999 by 2000!
18) ART Advisors sold out (had 30K shares)
19) Voya Investment Management sold out (had almost 18K shares)
20) Element Capital Management: new position of 211K shares
A.R.T. ADVISORS, LLC 0.00 Sold All 29,842 0.0000% 13F 2018-06-30 2018-08-14
VOYA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC 0.00 Sold All 17,612 0.0000% 13F 2018-06-30 2018-08-14
ELEMENT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC 210,749 541 210,749 0.4005% 13F 2018-06-30 2018-08-14
My bag too heavy to carry. I'm on my feet while the smart money is on Humvee, and they're leaving me in dust...
Too late to do anything. Just praying this is a new Phoenix in the makings.
16) Vanguard sold 326K shares (still own 1,773K shares)
17) Adage dumped another 0.5M shares (own 3M shares now).
This sucks!
VANGUARD GROUP INC 1,773,632 0.00 3420 326,640 3.3706% 13F 2018-06-30 2018-08-14
ADAGE CAPITAL PARTNERS GP, L.L.C. 3,000,000 0.01 660 500,000 5.7011% 13F 2018-06-30 2018-08-14
It's all about the next CC. If there is same old, same old during the conference call with no clear path to resolve the cash shortage issue, we are going tank. If Ken re-iterates that AXAL is about to be shelved with no clear alternatives to keep the trials running, we tank really hard. We will in a penny-stock territory in no time. Therefore, if Ken does not see he can't deliver anything tangible before the CC, he needs to bite a bullet now and do a small raise in a week or two. It's better to raise at $1.40 than at $0.70 with warrants attached.
Ken Berlin has been a CEO for almost 4 months now, and there have been to deals so far during his tenure. Why? It's most obvious that Tony Lombardo despite claiming to be working on deals was not even close to signing anything. Most likely, the possible negotiations were in very early stages and there was no clear way moving forward and finalizing a deal or two. Note that these pre-revenue stage biotechs are ALWAYS is some some of negotiations with big pharmas. The big whales do this routinely to investigate the biotech space, see what's out there, the future trend, and make sure they are not missing out something revolutionary. Negotiations for the sake of figuring out who's who. Therefore, very few of those negotiations result in anything tangible.
The big question with regard to Advaxis is how far the negotiating parties have been apart? Judging by the outcome of those negotiations or the lack of any results, we may construe that either:
a) there has been big gap between bid and ask;
b) these negotiations have been extremely convoluted involving multiple parties (patents, rights, and etc).
The time is running quick and Ken gets increasing pressure to come up with some sort of solution with each day passing. Realistically, he has 3-4 weeks to deliver something tangible, otherwise his only option would be a secondary.
I think he’s suggesting that you can have your cake and eat it too.
Don’t panic yet. Let’s see what Blew’s buddy has got to say about Edelmaniac. He might have loaded up with few millions of cheap shares after all. Start chilling your Sapporo, man.
In the next two days we’ll know if Edelman’s position changed. I would not be surprised if he reduced his position.
Also, I’m watching for Adage. Did they cut their position again?
Does anyone even care anymore about disappearance of 7M shares from the last secondary? How that did not trigger any SEC investigation?
15) Renaissance Technologies sold 556K shares (kept 435K shares)
Another blow ...
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC 436,494 0.00 2761 555,900 0.8295% 13F 2018-06-30 2018-08-13