Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
From another board:
" The stock price relies totally on hype, not on PLUG's financial prowess. The company can't even make a gross profit, the basic indicator of a company's business model. In fact its negative gross margins are getting worse.
Yes, revenue growth has been good recently, but profitless growth is useless. Of course a company can increase sales if it sells its products and services below the cost to produce them. PLUG stock sells at close to 10X revenues, a very rich valuation for a perennially unprofitable business."
Nope. We all know that there is Bad News coming. Think Georgia.
According to some, I should be very busy today, but hopefully everyone knows the truth.
As stated earlier, PLUG is trading on the headlines and today's headlines are negative. Bad timing, with the Q about to happen, but it could have been worse.
Hopefully the market will have digested this BAD NEWS by the time the Q's BAD NEWS is released.
jammy - Here's an interesting read:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4622086-plug-power-stock-consider-selling-before-getting-rolled-over?source=copy_to_clipboard
WTM - Currently, in Germany there are only two registered hydrogen vehicles for every hydrogen station.
Station owners are suffering, the sector is overbuilt ? Hard to believe.
Bob - I am not at all impressed with any one-off. There is a home in NJ and a couple of homes in MO That have used hydrogen in the past, but not successfully. The fuel works, the economics don't.
Funny Steve - No love? This is business and love should not be a metric or factor. I have no hate or animosity towards anyone here . We are all just gamers.
And this is also not win/lose. In the ideal, I hope shorts and longs can both be successful, but with PLUG, being LONG certainly has its challenges, primarily with management and PLUG's business model.
Blaming shorts for the gross incompetence of the company and management is silly.
PLUG's fortunes and therefore your fortunes are really quite easy to predict. Steve says that I am often right, which is true and very easy to do. Don't let the PR, HYPE and exuberance (FROTH) color your critical thinking. A "Big Deal for 2030" announced today is NOT going to make this quarter's numbers look any better and therefore is not going to really help shareholder value.
If you think you are going to be green because PLUG is doing a deal in Rotterdam in 2030, you don't know how real metrics work.
Steve - You may not love me, but I love Hydrogen and I love PLUG. PLUG is an even better Short than ENRON was for me.
Steve - 127 million shorts can't all be wrong.
I am definitely playing PLUG from the short side going into earnings using options. There are so many negative tells, it's difficult to see or make a positive case for this Q.
Not executing on Georgia could be a killer, especially after the BIG HYPE Party.
Steve - I expect :
- An Earning miss ... , Again.
- An IRA that is less than everyone expects
- Continuing issues with Georgia, and more delays.
- Nothing from Joule, Frame, Drones, Mulag, FFI, etc.
Bob - There is so little green hydrogen being produced, the bar isn't very high, so just about any country could choose to "Leapfrog the World in Producing Clean Hydrogen"
With Plenty of dedicated hydro or solar, and there are several countries who could boost clean hydrogen production. But what do you do with it? Forklifts?
WTM - Agreed. But likewise a Hydrogen Station Blowing Up should be BAD NEWS for HYZN.
Bob - Wall Street is waiting to POUNCE !
EARNINGS will be a MISS, ...., AGAIN!
Hydrogen won't be a factor for sales.
I think Georgia might be one year before we see real $$$.
Microsoft is NOT real, until someone can prove the economics . Think 2030 or even 2040.
WTM - So the exact same train that was hyped in Europe, is shipped across the Atlantic to be hyped in Canada. Nothing to do with HYZN ? Was this even news?
Steve - With Andy it is always OVER-Promise and UNDER-Deliver.
And the deliberate lack of transparency is always a RED FLAG.
The hydrogen industry experts all told us that hydrogen production is difficult and to expect PLUG to get it right with the first at bat was foolish. And add to that PLUG's poor execution record, no one should be surprised.
But sitting on this, FFI and every other MISS, is disingenuous and deceitful.
Will Wall Street punish us again ? Lying by omission.
WTM - This is the exact, same train that was tested in Europe.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/hydrogen-train-quebec-city-1.6888891
WTM - This is the same, exact train that was tested in Europe.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/hydrogen-train-quebec-city-1.6888891
WTM - I know you are just copying the headline, but it is not Correct.
Europe has been testing hydrogen trains for years with mixed results.
There have been several growing pains.
In January for instance, less than half of the hydrogen locomotives were in service.
WTM - I know you are just copying the headline, but it is not Correct.
Europe has been testing hydrogen trains for years with mixed results.
There have been some growing pains.
In January for instance, less than half of the hydrogen locomotives were in service.
I am certain that not all real analysts have PLUG as a buy.
jammy - WTM is correct. There are millions of gasoline cars and stations, but only a few thousand hydrogen vehicles and fewer than a thousand stations.
The number of incidents per thousand vehicles with hydrogen shows that it is MUCH MORE Dangerous than gasoline.
At a recent Hydrogen Conference, I asked a senior executive from a major oil company why they had not adopted a hydrogen strategy or added hydrogen dispensers to their stations .
His answer: "I don't want to come home in the evening and turn on the news and see my Brand in the foreground and a ball of flames in the background, and the reporter saying, " A housewife with a minivan full of kids in carpool were killed today when a teenager stopped to fill up his Dad's Pick-Up Truck with hydrogen and he decided to have a cigarette ... ".
Jack, in our industry we call this a Hindenburg Moment and it can kill a company. The Exxon Valdez was called a Hindenburg Moment because it cost Exxon Billions in shareholder value.
The burned out skeleton of the bus in the video was eeriely similar to the burned out skeleton of Hindenburg in the News reels.
The Volvo LOI is NOT a BIG Deal !
Guys, this is Lousy WORSTPORT ! WORSTPORT can't do BIG Deals because nothing about WORSTPORT is big !
This is just a supply deal between the buyer and vendor, with the buyer taking an ownership interest (JV) in the vendor ... for pennies on the Dollar.
Barry, Robert & Mark, have you even tried crunching the numbers ? If you had, you would be in hiding right now and not opening your BIG Mouths. You are displaying your ignorance to us all.
WORSTPORT is a small, struggling auto-parts company, and they have just sold their soul again to a big truck company. Did you learn NOTHING from the Cummins JV ?
You got skruud by Cummins ( and the management helped), and you will be skruud again!
Look at my post history here for the past 10+ years, I have never been wrong, right Mark?
Like Cummins, Volvo brings the gravitas and credibility that WORSTPORT Lacks.
But WORSTPORT remains a struggling, niche auto parts supplier. One recall would wipe out WORSTPORT, but not Volvo.
If the LOI doesn't become a real deal, then I don't see WPRT being much more than a small, struggling niche auto parts supplier worth about $1.00 / share.
mik - A one day trend?
More like positioning for earnings.
Penny - I stated here years ago that it would take a Major Positive Catalyst to reverse the trend at WORSTPORT. The Volvo deal is a major positive catalyst.
Steve - You actually believed Andy Marsh ? You have been here long enough to know better.
There are no meds to cure what you have.
Kudos to WORSTPORT !
I wonder why VOLVO just didn't acquire the entire MESS ?
I think VOLVO is following CUMMINS' Lead. Just take what you need for pennies on the dollar and walk away.
jammy - I hope everyone reading this board recognizes that you are a genius.
Especially those who bought at $18.00 on your recommendation.
Netprf - Fortunately, the laws of Physics and Thermodynamics have not changed in the past 10,0000 years or more, so the link is still current and up to date.
WTM - For the third time !
https://www.nrel.gov/docs/gen/fy08/43061.pdf
WTM - None of those numbers are real or correct today.
I have given you the tools for you to run your own numbers.
https://www.nrel.gov/docs/gen/fy08/43061.pdf
You can input any costs and any variables and come up with the comparative costs and economics for natural gas, diesel, gasoline, electricity and hydrogen.
Please note that this table takes into account the laws of thermodynamics and physics.
WTM - Agreed. But I don't see a serious market for hydrogen displacing gasoline in the near term.
Even PLUG isn't focusing on displacing gasoline. PLUG has mentioned Data Centers though, and since most data centers in the US use natural gas, that's why I am comparing hydrogen with natural gas just on the energy economics.
Please remember that natural gas doesn't need trucking or storage vessels which are an added cost for hydrogen.
I am just comparing the delivered cost of the fuels.
WTM - Natural gas is priced in 1,000 BTU's.
Here is a handy conversion table so that you can plug in any prices or values, yourself.
https://www.nrel.gov/docs/gen/fy08/43061.pdf
According to the US DOE, Natural Gas needs to get really expensive ($20.00) before Hydrogen is competitive.
Banger - Tsk, Tsk. Moving the goal posts .... AGAIN !
Another month? How much does it cost to produce this hydrogen in Georgia?
Steve - I am more than concerned.
I am also concerned about the high costs for Hydrogen. I am active in this sector and I am seeing long-term, bulk hydrogen supply contracts as high as $27/kg.
You won't see many data centers or anything else switching to hydrogen at these levels. Especially with natural gas at $5.00 delivered.
Steve - There is a Hydrogen index with no pricing information. So much for transparency.
https://www.eex-transparency.com/hydrogen
Thanks jammy - Please fill in the blanks. If you scroll through on this board, there is no pricing information.
Even the Hydrogen Price Index doesn't have prices.
No pricing might hinder hydrogen sales and adoption.
WTM - The IRA has nothing to do with the actual costs to produce. The actual costs of turning electricity and water into hydrogen. The cost to liquify it? The cost to transport and store it?
So what is the cost to produce hydrogen?
What is the wholesale price to buy this hydrogen?
What is the bulk price?
What is the retail price?
If I am looking at switching to hydrogen at my datacenter, or my fleet of forklifts, the price of the fuel is kind of important in my decision making.
The IRA is a tax credit. If I am buying hydrogen I will expect that credit to be applied to the price I pay.
No one knows the bulk price for Hydrogen? Not producers, buyers ?
Not PLUG, Not Linde, Not NEL, Not Ballard, Not Bosch, Not Air Products?
There is a Hydrogen index with no pricing information. So much for transparency.
https://www.eex-transparency.com/hydrogen
What happens if/when you buy one of these hydrogen gizmos or fuel cells and it isn't economical?
We know what oil, natural gas, diesel and electricity costs, but no one seems to know how much hydrogen costs to make, store, ship or dispense.
Are we selling Betamax's ?
WTM & Stan - These are my questions which have not been answered on any forum or by PLUG:
What is the bulk price (not the cost to produce, but the all in storage, transport and margins) for Hydrogen?
What is the bulk price for green hydrogen?
What is the retail price for hydrogen?
What is the price elasticity among the various fuels that hydrogen needs to meet in order to be competitive ?