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Busy day today. Lots of questions. Hope I helped some. Good night.
I can't really speak to a single candle spike. As to it having any indication for future price movement. I'd lean toward a single spike, just being a mistake order or anomaly. But if you see several candle spikes, over a few weeks, it generally indicates the retail phycology. Remember sentiment is short term traders and phycology is long term investors.
Several candle spikes indicate investor have been expecting up or down, waiting for sentiment to move that direction. So investors will buy on any positive, sell on any negative, price action. Often too early. Then you see these mistakes in judgment in several candle spike, which correct.
In these cases, eventually the investors get what they expect. As investors tend to do more research then traders. And plan on that research happening, while holding for a decision confirmation in sentiment. And if several candle spike mistakes are seen, odds are you know the expectation of investors.
Usually investor phycology is correct.
TIP: Several candle tails up over a few weeks/month or so, expect a climb. Several down, expect a retrace.
AGNC Like it. "V" Bottom broke 61% FIBs retracement, on strong volume (counter all boats down market)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGNC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p07260018020
ERF Don't like it no one can call a bottom.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ERF&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p44923630317
APU Don't like it Investors struggling with island reversal come back decision, (didn't quite close the gap) because of no volume out sentiment change.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=APU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p48159660337
STON Like it Large pennant forming.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=STON&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p57970839866
PGX Like it. "V" Bottom broke 61% FIBs retracement, concern on low volume and slower comeback angle on "v" bottom though.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PGX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72813983727
WFM Worth weekly watching 5 months into the island reversal. Need to check up coming Q report for improvements for possible come back month 6 or 7. Need turn around to get volume out emotion. Stop watching if the Q isn't good.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WFM&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p02650947612
Feb 13 2014 A/S went from 5 bil to 9 bil. Feb 24; 4.8 bil OS, now plus 783 mil. 15% dilution. nice
Holly chit. Good find. Back on my list thanks. I had PMCM on watch, but removed it.
MM accepts a large block order and buys the shares from the seller...that's the first trade. He then sells the shares in small partials to retail at a small markup. He pays no commissions so it's very easy for him to make money on the deal. When the sale of the large block order is complete, he clears the total from his books as a sell.
Sorry I didn't see it because you, if your the chartist, didn't put the FIBs on your chart. But yes, I agree, FIBs retrace levels are also support levels.
I still don't like calling for any complete satisfaction of a chart pattern, before support/resistance levels are actually breached. That's like saying every chart pattern will reach target 100% of the time. Which doesn't happen.
Sorry my critique wasn't positive. We have the same bearish mindset. But mine isn't ready to call over all target, until previous price support levels fall.
Thanks for the input. Things don't look good. But I'm not ready to say they look as bad as you see, yet. Step by step. IMO
He's calling for the 10% correction, I don't see yet. Also he's using the big cap index, not S&P 500 main street. Not the best to use a smaller sample base. Where he got his support levels don't match the weekly support levels. Have no idea what hat he pulled them from. But the over all worst case number is in line, at 15000+/-. Thing is; before one calls for worst case, first, second, and third cases, should have been reached.
IMO he's predicting, not projecting what the chart shows. Boo for his work ! How can a good Technical analyst call for the end of a pattern break, before the beginning starts?
Link back
Things going as expected at the S&P. Filled those gaps. Both high and 2 at lower. Settled at 4% pull back today. Hope it channels 3 to 4%, but expect we'll see 1910 support, then channel 4 to 5%. Indecision is becoming to emotional, to quickly. Support is the next logical step. REALLY hope that holds. I really don't want to see 6% before Nov 4th. But I have been in the bear camp since Sept 19th.
I'm kind of using FORD as a bellwether and it fell today also. But on weaker volume. Thus Ford is seeing new true value sooner then the S&P. I'm looking for Ford to channel between 14.00 / 14.25. If that happens, I expect the S&P will start a real channel for a while.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=F&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p44371369674
Yep My FAZ ended up being 5.5%, instead of the earlier 4.5% I expected. Flux during indecision is nice.
Sure your 2x VIX play had a good pop also.
You can't breakdown technicals, when a stock is involved in a darkside manipulative move. And MHYS has had that. I took profits in day 2 and don't expect anyone feeding a new pop for some time. The action after is retail emotion using the shares they bought from the big guys. The big guys are out. If they weren't out, price would still be climbing as they fed more retail buying emotion. So price will vary depending on the days mood, until hope for continuation wans and price falls, on loss of hope.
Elvis left the building. Don't expect ticket sales to be like when he was in the building. My experience says price will return to previous price levels.
Technically, don't enter unless top resistance is broken. Logically, take profits if you have them or take losses as quick as possible. BE out protect capital. Because the best place to be while waiting for a decision is the sidelines.
I'm Not posting about the OTC. I'm posting about the chart patterns. Chart patterns take into account all things which effect companies. Including financials, fundamentals , management action, contract pipeline, news, economic reasons, technical, ETC. As they present a historical projection of trader and/or investor reaction to those things.
Things happen within a company and individuals make entry/exit decisions based on what they look at. Everyone makes those decisions for different reasons. But history of price action is the account of all these decisions. And patterns repeat, no matter why someone buys or sells.
TA & charting is a picture of action. And action can be based on any reason. So WHY is baked in. WHERE NEXT is the projection one derives, based on movement seen repeatedly. And history repeats.
Basic, simple and clean,
A pattern is a pattern, no matter why the pattern forms.
We only care about the breaking up part. LOL Getting even or banking some gain. No one re-invests in a company that screwed them once. With so many other companies out there. Why care where price goes or how company progresses once you out. It's not like your married to the company. Even then, when slapped once, one shouldn't go back for the chance of being slapped again.
Yea been trading MINE since the 2013 temp job play. I notice I've done 8 chart evals before the last one to you. Actually should thank you, for it was not in my mind to check back.
This one could be considered a success to date. Since it has used it's funding well and progressed as needed in each round of funding. In the venture capital world, the 3rd round of funding is the easiest to get. As the company management has reached business goals and now has a product in market producing income. Marketing and distribution funding is pretty much a given in this stage of startup development. If things continue business wise. Expect to see less selling, less new funding loans and smaller manipulation in price action. As debit conversions & warrant buying happen, that are held as true investments by VC's.
Forgot; Also expect a R/S, rather then A/S increase. A reverse spilt is the correct business move at this stage. Increased A/S before product in market or in production.
Nothing has changed in such a short time.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=106868111&txt2find=fnma
Island Reversal's
I know it's hard when in a deep hole. But the price will continue to hop on it's toes, trying to see out of the hole, but can't quite get it's arms on the edge to pull itself out. Until it has the same strength it had falling into the hole. Once you fall so far, you get hurt. It takes time to heal and gain strength.
A volume pop reaching channel top gap area, equal to the volume gap down day. Indicates a breakout into gap area. Until you see that, just expect the channel top to retrace to channel bottom.
Volume in / volume out. Healing usually takes months, not days or weeks. Company didn't break a finger nail in such a big fall, probably broke a leg. Hard to hop out of a deep hole on one leg. But hunger forces one to keep trying. (bottom channel)
Not in my opinion. Time will show a channel eventually. Present high 2.00 and low 1.50 could expand or be the channel. Odds are it's the channel. Once established over time, worth trading.
MINE eval
After looking at the chart a minute, it looked interesting. so I did some research and tin foil hat analysis.
They are a functioning company now. They have cash and rev's. Product developed, production, and marketing started. Could be looking for 3rd round of seed money for expansion. Ps, the easiest to get. They have 1 bil to sell, left in the A/S. Past 2 Q filings were end of month, 22,23rd. Expect Sept there. OS 2,438,000 June.
Chart shows my thinking for possible new dark action. 3 failed chart patterns on a free trading stock. Me thinks something smells funny. Especially with good business news PRs. Product is selling, but no one feeding stock runs.
Well worth a channel play and watch for channel break north in the next month or so.
FAS/FAZ been berry berry good to me this week so far. (.5,3,4,4.5%) 12%, plus 1 more day
1st week 7%
2nd week 9%
Think of it this way. If sentiment can't swing positive phycology after a single bottom bounce, then double bottom bounce and it retraced to bottom again. Why think a third try will get new investment continuation interest, it didn't get before. It's a bit twice / fooled twice thing. Most don't go back a third time expecting different results.
Triple bottoms turn into bottom channels most of the time. This is not bad. As channels are most reliable after 3 touches of a support line. One can trade the channel.
And MINE's channel would be 30%. .006 to .008 If one get 20% a nice play.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MINE&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p43600063053
I don't recommend this. But one could buy and hold at .0001/.0002 and hope for a pop to sell into. Gain increases larger going up then it decreases on the way down. It's all in the numbers. And risk level.
Say you hold $1,000 worth @ .0008 or 1,250,000 shares.
Buying $500 @ .0002 or 2,500,000 and selling all in a pop to .0004, gets you even. 3,750,00 X .0004 + $1,500.
Better yet is trying to get $250 @ .0001. Run the numbers.
And you'd need to see .0008 again to get even with no action. Yes this is averaging down. But it's different if your in the .0002/.0001 area. Because it can't fall lower.
Just food for thought
Triple bottoms are not the most reliable of chart patterns. Look for new dilution.
SDRL Agree.
15%' same as I get with my 2 REITs
http://www.dividendinvestor.com/?chk=592b91412879385&symbol=SDRL&submit=GOhttp://www.dividendinvestor.com/historical.php?no=38600
I understand the 3 step investment strategy completely. About the ONLY time I'd recommend averaging down for any reason, is stepping into a long term investment. I use to teach that at the board.
My problem is using it on bottoming stocks in bad industry sectors. There use to be a investment philosophy to buy the "Dogs of the DOW" and hold for 5 years. It died with the market crash, pretty much, until 2013. Now it's hold for a year.
Good luck, I just can't see how your investment picks can beat something like a large divvy REIT or large cap multi national growth stock, in this market. Then again the DOW is big cap multi nationals.
I'm more concerned with the picks, then the process. IMO if your going to invest. Invest in something good, not bad. Reap gain, don't wait for it. But I'm not a contrarian investor by nature. I hold 2 REITs NYMT & ARR. Both who have just given new 15% buying ops !!!
Just food for thought.
Pennyland strong watch list;
FBEC, UNGS, NBRI, SAPX
SAPX is next on strong watch in pennyland. Strong dilution, bottom accumulation and business change news.
160 mil dilution Feb to Aug, probably moved in July. 56 mil from Sept to Oct. another 100 mil+/- accumulated. 4 PR's July to Oct. NO new for over a year.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SAPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p79188306889
As I posted UNGS is worth a watch. But I don't see confirmed dilution or large insider accumulation yet. The darkside play setup is not visible yet. Only possible 50/50 IMO. Thus a weekly watch is in order.
I'm watching for true bottom stall, (looking good) and strong volume increase spikes at it. (not seen yet)
The bottom stall indicates new funding price level wanted, has been reached and the accumulation there, indicates insiders knowing of dilution before announced are loading up pre manipulated run.
Without the large new issued stock. No one to feed any run.
S&P up date Going to be long.
Market pull back 3% or more
Market correction 10% or more
Market crash 20% or more
S&P is @ 3% retrace now. Thinking 4% baked in. Several factors are pointing to continued pull back. First in my mind is a change in phycology; because of the failure in sentiment, seen in the chart action. Next is the increase in the dollar. Next is FORD's fall from grace. Last is causing a stalemate in November elections.
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Thoughts on what charts say to me.
Sentiment vs. Phycology: Sentiment short term, tight trend. Phycology long term, open trend.
Price swing envelope: larger the envelope, larger the indecision.
Larger the indecision; stronger the trend.
Thus the size of the price swing channel indicates a change in phycology and long term trend. Or extended sentiment change, changes phycology eventually. This starts with seeing indecision. And indecision is when FAS/FAZ makes sense, in times of large price channel swings. IMO
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Now lets look at the S&P 6 month chart. Until the "V" bottom failed, with huge mindset changing profit taking volume. I saw upward continuation. Following was a obvious change in price swings, prompting my FAS/FAZ trading and the markets large down channel.
If you look at phycology prior to the "V" bottom it was a large flat stalled phycology. Investors indecision. Next sentiment took price down and then up. But tight envelope didn't indicate any change in phycology, until it increased slightly during "V" bottom wash back. Now investors were thinking maybe we should change our minds. Sentiment is changing. The peak huge profit taking, IMO, was that change in long term continuation up mindset. The mid term "V" bottom pattern, sentiment driven failed.
Sentiment failed, and prior stalled indecision was watching for a sentiment decision. That decision was short term traders took profits big time. So the investors made a mindset change. Since phycology is longer term, it take longer for the complete change and you see the indecision (FAS/FAZ channel) in the down trend phycology channel. As investors slowly move to the sidelines. Nothing fast about investing.
Basic, simple, and clean.
Investor reached a point they didn't know if the long up trend would continue. They flip/flopped side ways for a while. Watching where sentiment took them. The "V" bottom pattern was a result of this indecision, Sentiment went crazy. When short term sentiment failed to continue the up trend, on a failed "V" bottom breakout of the wash back high, with a huge exit volume day. Investors started moving out cautiously, but consistently, with the larger indecision price swing channel phycology now down.
change in phycology; because of the change in sentiment, seen in the chart action
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Next is the increase in the dollar.
This is going to lead to Ford. As the dollar increases, profits for big cap's, which produce rev's overseas, decline. They have problems meeting earnings predictions. Bad Q3 earnings, produce market decline.
And next is FORD.
Ford is excepted as the best managed big cap auto company in the US. When the returning (market crash turn around) winning CEO left in July, because he felt his job was done. He said things are fine at FORD. The next Q, management said things had changed real fast for the auto maker. And the stock has plummeted since.
It's my thought if a multi national bellwether see's a fast unexpected decline in Europe, South America, and the US. It kind of feels like trouble in Q4 for the market.
Last is causing a no change stalemate in November elections.
The market is made up of more rich, then less rich. The rich want no change in economic rules in the USA. Because the existing rules have produced such amazing gains for corporations and the wealthy. Change in government, means change in rules. Change is the enemy of the market, not a non function government.
One month before the mid term election and predictions are up in the air. Too many toss ups for a call. Actually more toss ups then ever before this close to the elections.
So if one wants no change in government, what keeps change from happening more then no market climb continuation into the elections, helping incumbents. Or in power parties to add seats.
This is from under my tin foil hat. But I wouldn't be surprised if some market big guys investors aren't moving out, for political reasons. Won't hurt them one bit, moving to the sidelines for a month, with strong gains. If the market bottoms November 5th. And the pull back stops before becomes a correction. I would NOT be surprised one bit.
My prediction; we see the S&P continue lower (chart) as Q3 earnings come in. (the dollar) Flatten between 4% to 6% down. (FORD) And continued high price flux indecision till Nov. (elections) After, depends on how low a flatten stall channel gets. 4% come back climb, 6% possible 10% correction.
I have a real problem understanding your buy the (possible) bottom and hold long investment style. Most invest in getting up trend gains during a long hold, (missed the divvy) not waiting for a come back. There's always time to get in on come back gains, when the come back, comes. Why tie up cash waiting and sometimes you even average down. Just can't seem to wrap my head around it. I want gains, not to wait for the possibility of them, using cash that could be earning gain somewhere else, during the wait.
People are different. But if it works well for you. Keep doing it !!
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buy when no one else is, sell when everyone is buying
TBEV
looks like the majority of the 2B additional shares from the last A/S may have been absorbed,
FBEC up date Wash trading; link back for post
Forgot to mention I saw a big wash trade today. 45 mil @ .0003 and 5 at .0004 for 9 mil, around 2:50pm. Check the time & sales to see it.
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=trades&symbol=NO%5EFBEC
The more you see something happen, the more you can rely on it !
That's nearly half todays volume. Darkside looking for some retail attention. Keep a close eye on it for a few more days. May be ready to roll.
MMMW
Well there's the high candle tail exhaustion expected EOD .03. - link back -
It was .036, 50 minutes ago And everyone was trying to sell at .39 in the huge ask stack. If one sold @ .034 below .035 bid, you would have saved .004, in the long run, as the ask was .038. And the huge .039 ask stack never closed. They played chase the price down, just above ask tic by tic and still hold shares @ .03 now.
The more you see something happen, the more you can rely on it !
TIP: buy above ask and sell below bid. Be first in line to close !!!
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=105994871&txt2find=buy|above|ask
Got to keep an eye on these damn OTC pops now days.
Oh yea re-entered SIAF @ .96 on increase volume and higher entry point for safety, late Friday. - link back - And just closed it @ 1.05 target. For the 4th trade and another 12%+/-. Love'n this one. But expectations have really been reached now. Always thought it could hit a buck.
total 39% banked. (15,5,7, 12%)
Those in MMMW should get ready to sell. Huge candle spike and much lower volume. Expect the candle tail to get larger by EOD.
Caution
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MMMW&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p19977035166
You are a daring young man, aren't you. Company fundies aren't bad and a 7% divvy is actually great. But you just missed it AUG 15. Mostly the industry sector sucks big time. And as you say, 37% short. There is a good reason for that and that it just broke south out of a 9 month down channel. Iron prices continue to decline and China isn't buying any longer. And a new downgrade.
Chart
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=CLF
55 of 65 companies in the red the last 6 months.
http://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=141&f=ind_industrialmetalsminerals&o=perf26w
Some times things don't bounce.
Good luck
Than was then this is now. An island reversal is an island reversal. They only happen when something bad happens to the company. And it take time for the company to get investors confidence back, that they have or are correcting what happened.
Just closed FAS for the day +3.5%. Done work for the day.
Hey it's Friday, lets rap up FAS/FAZ for the week.
Mon +.25%
Tue +.5%
Wen + 2.5%
Thur + 3%
Fri +3.5%
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total 9.75%
Last week 7.5%
I think we may have 1 more week of this before a new up trend takes effect and it's back to swing trading stocks.
Like the results, but not having to work each day.
Here's a few island reversals. So you can see what to expect. Most break up, not down. But in months, not days or weeks.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WFM&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p09784718131
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SRPT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p78653488911
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ARO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p78532460119
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GV&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p50575320608
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p27170447074
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FNMA&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p91198090316
Just happened to find this post from a MONK believer, back in the day. He fleeced millions from the retail herd. Those involved I'm sure will tell everyone. Never believe any thing a message board poster says. Just like my never believe the PR story.
--------------------------------------
The Float Lock-Down
I'm going to introduce a new concept as a speculative investment opportunity. Another i-hub member introduced me to this particular strategy, and I actually met this person (his alias is Monk and he's becoming very popular on i-hub) in Phx this past weekend. After years of studying human behavior and body language, I think he's legit and I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt. Not to mention he has a PhD in structural engineering, so you know he's good at math.
So his concept/strategy is as follows:
Buy, and Hold. It's really that easy.
Well, that is the easy part. The difficult part is understanding why this will work. Monk finds stocks with a specific share structure, usually targetting companies that have a large amount of insider ownership, and a moderate O/S (oustanding shares).
He then begins buying in large sums and announces it to his board. He currently has three different lock-down stocks right now -- CDIV, EIGH, and GRNO ... I've invested quite large in these stocks over the last few weeks because I believe in the strategy and am not sure how much longer these opportunities will be presented (never know when they're going to regulate the market more).
Monk has been running CDIV since June of last year. He has brought the price of the stock up from .0007 to where it is today, .40 and he's still buying!! Clearly one would think "why would I invest in a stock that has already done this," and "where is the upside potential?"
Well, the whole concept works because no one sells, except the flippers and day-traders that are bound to show up. The MMs short pinksheets aggressively because they can get away with it, in most cases enough to cause selling so they can cover their short positions. Now what Monk is trying to create (and eventually will create) is a Short Squeeze.
Currently, Monk's team can account for 20M more shares than there are outstanding. Meaning the MMs are at least 20M shares short. At some point, the MMs will have to cover these short positions, and when they do, the volume will explode because there are no shares available for sale. The short squeeze should take the stock 300-500% higher from where the short squeeze starts, maybe more.
This is speculative, but I think the concept works and I'm participating in all of them. I think it's worth a shot, especially with EIGH and GRNO since they recently pulled back ... CDIV will likely have the squeeze occur over the next few months.
As I said, it's an island reversal pattern, after the large fall from grace. There will be a bottom channel form. 1 morning green is not the start of a comeback change in negative sentiment. Sorry, but I'd expect at least 3 months of channeling, before it will possibly come back. Island reversals are caused by runaway gaps. Which don't fill quickly. Best one can expect is a new bottom channel worth trading, over the next 3 to 6 month. Sometimes the channel is large enough you can bank bit by bit gains playing it, if you have any cash. Then recoup the loss that way. But generally, I'd just find the next trade somewhere else.
I just did some work on that one. When I found NBRI interesting again. In my mind UNGS has possibilities, but not strong ones. I'm 60/40 on a new darkside move. Worth a watch.
OK UNGS had 660 mil dilution Mar to June (530 mil to 1.2 bil). Most all debit conversions, no new funding. That explains the June/July run.
Still no filing for last Q. But A/S is 2 bil, most they could dilute June to Sept is 800 mil. And if they were active, I'd expect a filing about an A/S increase or reverse split. So don't expect they have a VC on the line for new funding. Most one can expect is more debit conversions, which there is plenty of, still. But there are so many with partial conversions. It's near impossible to guess how much is left or where.
So this one is up in the air.
Bottom fishers volume are not out of line for the OS. Also Aug and Sept bottom volume spikes, look like poor bottom pickers, more then VC's, knowing a run is coming accumulation. Because the volume spikes were not at final bottoms, it kept retracing. Normally when a real bottom is in, VCs and friends really pound the bottom.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UNGS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p29927981547
Again this one is up in the air.
No verifiable dilution, to back a darkside run, for selling debit conversion shares. And no unusual huge bottom accumulation. But the potential is there.
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Ps; yea I hate float lock talk on pennyland. The theory is good, but message board bullchiters a waste of time. Don't follow the OTC closely any longer. So haven't heard float lock for quite a while. Is it still a subject discusseg on boards, now days?