Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Thanks,
I hear their is a new Forex contest starting next month.
I will need to join-up for next month before I start trading real cash.
I'm currently on d'sidelines w/cash... the tiger rode me a little to hard the last few days.
I need to switch to turtle mode
In penny lane there is a barber showing photographs
Of every head he's had the pleasure to know.
And all the people that come and go
Stop and say hello...
Everybody was riding d'Nigeria gold train....
Can I get a order of fries with my shake?
Gone for d'night - need to wake-up for d'3:00AM feeding
tiger unsprung?
“They’re always after ‘me Lucky Charms!”
Oil Prices Up on Nigerian Strike Threat
By JOHN WILEN Monday, June 18, 2007
NEW YORK - Oil closed above $69 a barrel, a nine-month high, and gasoline futures also rose Monday after Nigerian oil unions called a strike for this week.
Retail gas prices, meanwhile, continued their decline despite analyst predictions Friday that they would fall no further.
Nigerian oil unions called a general nationwide strike to begin Wednesday in protest of a government price hike on automobile fuel. Also supporting energy prices were attacks on two Nigerian oil facilities by angry villagers and gunmen, which cut oil output.
"You've got kind of a double-whammy out of Nigeria," said Kevin Saville, managing editor for the Americas energy desk at Platts, the energy research arm of the McGraw-Hill Cos.
Nigeria was the third-biggest exporter of oil to the U.S. in March, behind Canada and Mexico, with an average of 1.35 million barrels a day, according to Energy Department statistics.
Light, sweet crude for July delivery rose $1.09 to settle at $69.09 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The front-month contract last closed above $69 on Sept. 1.
Gas futures for July rose 0.42 cent to settle at $2.2643 a gallon on the Nymex. At the pump, gas prices fell 0.3 cent overnight to a national average of $3.005 a gallon, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Retail gasoline has fallen 22.2 cents from its late May peak.
Brent crude for August delivery added 71 cents to settle at $72.18 a barrel on the ICE futures exchange in London.
Stocks of major airlines fell on the news of higher oil prices, sending the Dow Jones transportation average down 41.23, or 0.80 percent, to 5,135.75.
In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures rose 2.36 cents to settle at $2.0342 a gallon, while natural gas prices fell 22.8 cents to settle at $7.69 per 1,000 cubic feet.
Analysts said the news out of Nigeria was prompting large funds to buy energy futures, driving prices higher. But analysts are skeptical that the unions will follow through and actually strike.
"These Nigerian labor unions threaten to go on strike all the time, and then settle at the last minute," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago.
"It's a very common thing," said Saville. "They'll threaten strikes pretty frequently."
But investors have little other news to trade on, Saville said.
"Other than the news in Nigeria, you've still got this ... gasoline situation and, specifically, what the refinery utilization numbers are going to be," Saville said.
Energy futures rallied late last week after a Wednesday report by the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration showed gasoline inventories were unchanged at 201.5 million barrels for the week ended June 8. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected inventories to rise by 2 million barrels.
The report also showed that refinery utilization fell by 0.4 percent, to 89.2 percent, when analysts had expected an 0.8 percent increase.
"Here we are in June, and refinery capacity is at least 4, 4 1/2 points below where it should be," said John Person, an independent energy trader and president of NationalFutures.com.
The data surprised energy traders and attracted hedge fund buying, driving oil prices to Friday's nine-month high. If Nigeria's unions do follow through on their strike threat, however, the market's bullish run last week will look minor, Flynn said.
"If they do go on strike, it's probably enough to drive (oil) prices to the mid-$70's," he said.
Also supporting prices was news of a possible work stoppage in Brazil, where oil workers could strike early next month, Saville said, and developments in the Palestinian territories. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas swore in an emergency Cabinet and outlawed the militia forces of Hamas after Hamas took control of Gaza.
Geopolitical developments support oil prices, because traders are wary of anything that could affect oil supplies, analysts said.
"The oil market is focusing again on supply and geopolitical tensions and these factors are likely to lead to higher prices in the near term," said Peter Fertig, an analyst at investment bank Dresdner Kleinwort.
But domestic supply issues remain paramount in the minds of most energy traders. Traders are awaiting Wednesday's EIA inventory report with great anticipation. This spring has seen an unusual number of refinery outages, causing analysts to worry refiners aren't producing enough gas to meet peak summer driving demand.
Yet another facility, the Big West refinery in Bakersfield, Calif., reported the shutdown of key gas-producing equipment on Friday, analysts said. On the other hand, there was scattered news of refineries returning to service, including reports that Exxon Mobil Corp. and Valero Energy Corp. were restarting equipment at refineries after maintenance or unplanned shutdowns.
"We've got to get that utilization rate up to 93 (percent), 94 percent," Saville said. If production doesn't increase, he said, "we'd better hold our breath and hope we don't get a hurricane."
Only 12 more minutes till d'tiger rolls back over...
For the last month Amex Oil Index (XOI) and Phlx Gold and Silver Index ($XAU) has been tracking each other almost tic for tic...
----- Oil Tops $69, Hits Nine-Month High -----
By MASOOD FARIVAR
June 18, 2007 11:37 a.m.
Crude-oil futures rose more than $1 Monday, climbing above $69 a barrel for the first time since last September after fresh militant attacks on Nigerian oil installations and separate plans by Nigerian and Brazilian workers to strike.
The July crude futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange smashed through key resistance at $68.30 a barrel, a nine-month high set on Friday, to rise as high as $69.05 a barrel, up $1.05.
Hundreds of angry Nigerian villagers chased workers away from a Chevron oil-transfer facility Monday in restive Niger Delta, occupying the premises and, according to one report, forcing Chevron to shut production.
The attack followed a separate incident in which gunmen overran a flow station in the Niger Delta run by Eni SpA subsidiary Agip and were holding workers and army soldiers inside.
The incidents, along with a plan announced earlier Monday by Nigerian labor unions to stage an indefinite strike beginning Wednesday, renewed worries about oil supplies in Nigeria where more than 700,000 barrels a day of oil production remains shut in due to militant attacks.
"It's still a wait and see situation but apparently rebel activity has resumed and some people are nervous about it," said Mike Fitzpatrick, a vice president of risk management at brokerage Man Financial in New York. The attacks "represent a potential threat to supplies."
The August North Seat Brent contract on ICE Futures jumped 69 cents to $72.16 barrel. Petroleum products posted more modest gains. Reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, for July delivery rose 1.40 cents to $2.2741 a gallon. Heating oil for July delivery gained 2.89 cents to $2.0395 a gallon.
Tom Bentz, an analyst at BNP Paribas Futures, said the rally was being driven by "potential Brazilian and Nigerian strikes, the attack on Nigerian flow station" as well as technically triggered buying.
Workers at state-run oil firm Petroleo Brasileiro SA, or Petrobras, may go on a five-day strike beginning July 5, Brazil's main oil workers' union said in a news release on its Web site.
The council of the federation of Brazilian oil worker unions, or FUP, Sunday unanimously approved a strike that would affect Brazil's oil production, the release said. Petrobras produces more than 95% of Brazil's oil output of about 1.85 million barrels a day.
Brazil has the second-largest crude oil reserves in South America after Venezuela and is set to become a net oil exporter in 2006, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Oil prices rallied more than 5% last week after the Department of Energy reported an unexpected drop in U.S. refinery activity and said gasoline stocks, counter to market expectations, remained flat.
Refinery utilization fell 0.4 percentage point to 89.2% of capacity in the week ended June 8, while gasoline stocks remained unchanged at 201.5 million barrels, well below their historic average, the DOE said in a report, renewing worries about U.S. gasoline supplies.
With those worries taking center stage, analysts say prices appear poised to push higher and make a run for the psychologically important $70-a-barrel level. However, uncertainty ahead of this week's DOE report is likely to keep any gains in check.
Only because I did not bank the $800 dollars in profit last night, I'm wait'n to sell to a few Japanese housewives tonight.... do I hear 662!!
I'm starting to wear-out d'gold bull...
Ouch - long 1000 units XAU/USD 658.25
Just running of d'Bulls
I'm trading based on the following technical reasons...
A. MACD line crossing the signal line.
B. Williams %R (14)
Rule to buy an oversold conditions
1. %R reaches -100%.
2. Five trading days pass since -100% was last reached
3. %R rises above -95% or -85%.
I waited until %R reached above -50% to place the order after looking at the last years worth of data.
C. It's the only way I can get to the front of the race.
long 1000 units XAU/USD 658.25
I'm plan'n on win'n with d'turtle envy
You forgot Lady sofia
Lady sofia who wrote msg# 10009
Date:5/25/2007 1:07:46 PM
More of a perpetual journey between d'options...
Turtle barrier Option
USD/JPY - 122.00 in play
USD/JPY - 122.75 timeout June 15th
USD/JPY - 123.50 removed
USD/JPY - 123.75 in play
USD/JPY - 124.00 pending
IMPLIED VOLATILITY (1M) - 6.30
IMPLIED VOLATILITY (3M) - 6.60
If short-term option volatilities are significantly lower than long-term volatilities, expect a potential breakout.
If short-term option volatilities are significantly higher than long-term volatilities, expect reversion to range trading.
Typically in range-trading scenarios, implied option volatilities are low or declining because in periods of range trading, there tends to be minimal movement. When option volatilities take a sharp dive, it can be a good signal for an upcoming trading opportunity. This is very important for both range and breakout traders. Traders who usually sell at the top of the range and buy at bottom, can use option volatilities to predict when their strategy might stop working - more specifically, if volatility contracts become very low, the likelihood of continued range trading decreases.
------------------- Background Option Support -------------------
Example - Combining Vanilla and Exotic Options
Link - www.fenews.com/fen3/combining.html
On February 20, 1998 the domestic currency interest rate is 5%, the foreign currency interest rate is 3%, the volatility is set at 15%. If today's spot price is taken as 100, and the hedge fund buys a 100 call option with expiration on July 20, 1998, the premium payable will be about 4.21.
To offset the premium, the hedge fund decides to be short a series of one touch options, each with expiration on July 20, 1998. There are three options with strikes at 99, 98 and 97. At each level, the hedge fund will pay 1.70.
Thus if the underlying never touches 99, the hedge fund has a free call option. If the underlying hits 99, the hedge fund has to pay 1.70. If the underlying also hits 98, the hedge fund has to pay another 1.70 and if it hits 97, the hedge fund has to make a third and final payment of 1.70.
Thus we have several cases:
· If the underlying does not hit 99, the fund pays nothing.
· If the underlying hits 99, the fund pays 1.70.
· If it hits 98, the fund pays 3.40.
· If it further hits 97, the fund pays 5.10.
This should be compared with a vanilla option whose initial premium was about 4.21. So in many cases, the hedge fund saves by purchasing the structure as opposed to buying a plain vanilla option.
Such structures have become very popular with proprietary trading desks which seek to make one sided bets.
If the hedge fund wants to be even more focused, they will replace the long position from a vanilla option to a knock out barrier option. In our previous example, the hedge fund can choose to purchase a barrier option with a knock out at 97. The cost of the barrier option is approximately 2.55. To offset the premium they may sell one touch options as before with levels at 99, 98 and 97. The cash amount payable at each level is now reduced to 1.03
The cash amounts are lower but the disadvantage here is that if the underlying ever hits 97, not only have you paid out 3.09 but, to add insult to injury, your option got knocked out.
You need to flip d'photo to match today's FOREX contest results, next week it's turtle break out to 125 (exotic option kiss) then short to zero...
Yes and I'm still on the bottom of the ant hill....
Wait'n for d'limit order to fill @123.413 - so I can go long again.
Turtle pivotal support @ 123.35, 123.15, and 122.85.
Rid'n your coattails on d'turtle
You would laugh is you actually saw how I work.
So far this year I have only worked about 40 real engineering hours, the rest of the time has been spend developing EXCEL spreadsheets to help me work less real hours, so that I can spend more time FOREX trading.
Life is sweet when all you have to do is entry one or two numbers in a spreadsheet and hit the print button.
The hardest problem is making sure you spell the client name right on the proposal, and limiting your risk on the construction project.
No, I win the prize for stupid FOREX trading, being fully margin on XAU for 1000 units, 50:1 leverage, wrong side of the trade, the 10-year breaking 5 percent for the first time in 20 years, and being in a meeting for 3 hours away from a computer.
The good news I saved our client $300K due to a simple math error on the construction contract that nobody notice.
If your gonna juggle numbers around on your construction cost,you need to verify that the numbers add-up on the bottomline.
I'm planning on billing $14K for my consulting services to help offset my FOREX game losses.....
Yes - I'm still earning my butterfly wings.
The first arrow is where I lost $14K.... count me out on the tiger play.... I will be seeing that chart in my dreams for many of years to come.
Turtle upside may be just be a corrective wave adjustment to extend the sloping wedge into the London hour, if it breaks the upward wedge before midnight I will cut my losses early.
So far we have perfect balance...
turtle is a slow one - I can wait for the trade to develop....
Update - little guy grew some balls in the last three min..
kick'n d'tiger cold turkey - too many random wave patterns to make any money. (for now at least)
just watch'n d'turtle do a slow roll-over - tits down turtle trading
short turtle (usd/jpy) @ 122.972 will cover after next Greenspan market wisper
turtle has tiger by d'balls....if by only a few hairs...
Turtle testing 123.00 barrier
nice and slow drift to 646...
short XAU/USD - pennies fall'n from heaven
short d'tiger XAU/USD @ 650.55
I'm short d'beast (GBP/JPY - 241.755) and short d'turtle (USD/JPY - 122.56).
Thanks on d'photo
I hope your enjoying the Forex roasted crow. I banked d'cash and enjoyed my swim in d'kiddie pool today.
Escaped from d'tiger mouth w/profit and pride.
I was short a day early and long a day late on d'tiger. I will hold till the correction tonight and exit at par.