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QQQ broke the uptrend channel. It could see 174 once the
downtrend resumes.
What is Dan's full name.
Hoping tomorrow will defy the trend.
Beginning to. Another 500 points down on spx would be nice. The tarrifs will have a huge negative effect on AAPL and the tech sector.
Who knows anymore about this market. Quite a few on this board had predicted a precipitous crash that would bottom out in the third week of May and the guestimate was sub 2k. By the looks of it, don't see that happening at least in the 2nd quarter.
http://schrts.co/bNiJAcEm (14.00000) I can never seem to open this link.
Too much bullishness everywhere is bearish. The last time I could not get shares to short to add to my existing short position, was just two days before XIV's historic drop. Still made out nicely on that. Now I hear the same thing with QQQ.
try ameritrade. Just shorted 1K qqq todat at 186.99. Just the regular trading fee of 6.95
The last time the nasdaq futures were down this big was in 2000, when that decline began.
I meant 2820 is in play
futures have recovered about 17 points of their lows and are trading above the key 2900 level. However, there has been a violation of that level and 28290 is in play.
what is causing the Nas futures to go down.
This ascending wedge in the spx is very close to getting resolved. Looking at the pattern closely it should resolve downwards in a big way.
Chances of trump getting re-elected are quite good. As far as predictions. People make predictions based on data. Based on data your prediction should come true. But the fed has made a mockery out of this whole thing. They control the market. Hard to predict anything.
Kudlow calling for a 1/2 point rate cut. The fed now wanting to have a bigger balance sheet. Seeme like this whole rate cutting was a farce. The moment they see the market getting tipsy, they start talking accommodation.
With Brexit plan being voted down three times. Monday should be a big red day.
No rate increase = Recession coming!
More interested in lows. When are we hitting the five yr lows. Any predictions.
Have a high regard for your research and opinions. I would not be long for the next three weeks, maybe four. The risk now is to the upside. The risk is more severe in the tech as there seems to be a rotation taking place to the blue chp sector.
Support:
SPX 2640 area
NDX 6800 area
Heard on CNBC, one of their analysts or guest analysts calling for a test of the December lows and then possibly a retest of those lows sometime later in the year. He ruled out new highs or even a break of the 2810 - 2820 level. This is the fourth rejection at that level. He also said that this "V" rally happened too fast.
Personally, based on what he said, a test of the December lows could occur by the end of march or 1st week of april. While the 2680 is the 100 dma and could act as a support. The stronger support level is at 2638. A more aggressive bounce will occur from there. A close below 2638 will open the doors to the December lows.
I am thinking if we get a bounce, it will be from the 200 ma, currently sitting at approximately 2751. Less than 1 % from todays close.
Are you saying we are headed to 3000 before a correction starts.
Look like SMA's
Is this break out for real.
I think the signing of the trade deal is already priced in. Clonk to occur a bit lower than expected.
So now we are thinking new highs?
"New economic data published Thursday showed that retail sales in the U.S. dropped by the largest amount since September 2009 amid heightened financial market volatility and the protracted partial government shutdown. Meanwhile, producer prices unexpected declined for a second consecutive month."
In other words they just needed an excuse to pull her down, which is ok by me
Taking a 10 yr view of the spx. The current rally lasted almost 10 yrs. 666 - 2941. This current bounce was from the lower bb on the 10 yr chart and the 100 ma and 200 ma are at 2000 and 1500 respectively. 1500 also represents the 61.8 fib retracement level, while the 50% level is at 1800.
The two previous declines in 2000 and 2007 were more than 50% in each case and lasted 3 yrs and 1 yr respectively. The current decline so far is resembling the 2007 decline, which had a steeper slope and went lower as well.
This weeks action suggests a zig zag to retest the 2636 area, failing which 2440 comes into play.
Fib Levels: 2560, 2530, 2481. These levels do not correspond to any of the recent support levels of 2635 and 2440.
This does have the looks of a bear market rally, begining in dec. 2018. Looking to target at least 2550 by months end or sooner and operating on tight stops. So far feeling lucky.
So you still think there is a 2800 in the cards. I am inclined to say no. Went long spxu at 35.5 yesterday. So far looking good. I believe this was a bear market rally that stopped as expected at the 200 ma. The 200 ma is still rising although anemically. We should see sub 2600 on this leg down.
Are you hinting at reducing short positions.
AMZN might help as well.
I think the jobs report tomorrow will do the trick and initiate a test of the December lows.
FB up, MSFT down, TSLA up
FDA is a corrupt and a politically controlled organization. They have different rules for different companies.
A rate hike by the fed is also a possibility in march
"If it closes over downtrend line, that is bullish, and closes over 100 or 200 are very bullish. "
Since the September high, spx has repeatedly closed above the
200 ma three times and reversed course just below the 100 ma. Of course then the 100 ma was above the 200, however, as of January 14, the 100 ma crossed below the 200 ma. I believe the 100 ma could be it this time as well, if we get there. Also, since the past week there has been a negative divergence in the technicals for the spx. We are close to a top
There is always a caveat:
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/c0f5ef3c-1521-3f95-823d-a3032b211bd2/these-us-stocks-are-most.html
It is something to think about. However, a balance sheet of 3.5 trillion will result in the economy over heating and crashing anyway. They may stop temporarily, to continue later, after this reduction has been digested. Also, there was no talk about going in the other direction (easing).
This is a bear mkt rally. We may be near a top before the resumption of the down trend
Good post.
Anyone think this rally could lead to new highs.