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Hope Your Right,I still Own PEIX
thanks for Your Input!
Not short,Im Long
Just Concerned After Seeing that Article
Im Hopeing BIOF & PEIX Go Up
May Want to Take Profit
I Just Found this
I am Long PEIX & Didnt Like Seeing It,as a fellow IHUB User
thought Longs might want to See It.
http://www.streetinsider.com/13Ds/BioFuel+Energy%27s+%28BIOF%29+200%25+Surge+Is+a+Hoax/7727943.html
Just to Be Correct On BIOF
looking closer at the fling suggests that the new shares were given to Mr. Einhorn and his Greenlight Capital for free pursuant to a "true-up" agreement.
Just Reading this,but It Looks Like Mr.Einhorn Was Given the
Shares from a Previous Agreement.
http://www.streetinsider.com/13Ds/BioFuel+Energy%27s+%28BIOF%29+200%25+Surge+Is+a+Hoax/7727943.html
Kinda Like PEIX Insiders were Given Shrs. as an Intrest Payment
& Filed a form4.
Dont Know How Correct This Is,but It Makes BIOF Look Like a Good
Short Here.
David Einhorn Latest Trades,not Seeing Pacific Ethanol
Would Like to See It!
http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=David+Einhorn
private-equity/US. Listed Chinese Co.
http://chinawatch.washingtonpost.com/2012/08/state-bank-funding-to-help-major-firms-go-private.php
WSJ Citron: Chinese Backlash Hits Short Seller
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443571904577629342218289040.html
http://www.citronfraud.com/
some are considering planting a second crop
Options for Double-Cropping Barren Corn
http://wisccorn.blogspot.com/2012/07/cropping-options-for-double-cropping.html
CEPIP 25 cents per gallon of ethanol produced
They Are Using Milo Now,Going Cellulosic
There for CEPIP Continues Past 2013
http://www.progressivedairy.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=9388:california-bill-eliminates-future-corn-ethanol-funding&catid=1:latest-news&Itemid=61
Some Notes On Costs
1.Mascoma & Lallemand Yeast Product Savings
$ 2.0 million more into the company as saving on consumption of enzymes.
2.Milo Cost Savings If Used at 100%
Cost Savings per Quarter Of $ 2,643,903.00
3.Corn Hedging
865,000 Bushels Known at the End Of Q2,Possably More Added Before
Corn Run Up
4. Selling Carbon Credits,Now Produced at a Cellulosic Rate Because of Milo Use
forwards and options have cleared on the exchange, largely in the $15-$18 range.
5.Location,Location,Location
Higher Priced West Coast Ethanol
6.Corn Oil Extraction
contribute as much as $4.5 million, or seven cents per gallon, of operating income annually."approximately 12 million pounds of corn oil per year
7.Ownership Intrest has Doubled from 34% to 67%,Which Will Double Earnings.
Ect...
Carbon Credit Trading $40billion year market 2020
(Reuters Point Carbon) - Major banks are weighing whether to wade into the California carbon market
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/07/us-california-carbon-idUSBRE88600S20120907
Pacific Ethanol has announced plans to move toward cellulosic
Pacific Ethanol Inc. uses corn at its Stockton plant, which can produce 60 million gallons of ethanol per year. It has announced plans to move toward cellulosic ethanol.
http://www.recordnet.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20120908/A_BIZ/209080317/-1/A_BIZ
E85 Average Price Spread 11.5% In Cali
Average Price Spread
11.5%
Average E85 Price
$3.66
Average Gas Price
$4.14
Last January This Map About 380 E85 Stations
http://e85vehicles.com/e85-stations.html
66 E85 Stations In CA.
Propel had Zero Stations Last May,Until CA. Funding
Now a Large % Of E85 Pumps
66 Stations across 46 Cities sell E85 Fuel in California
http://e85prices.com/california.html
Heres The Stimulas from an American Source
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-approves-157-bln-infrastructure-093404338.html
China approves $157 bln infrastructure spending
Much Of It For 3G & 4G Also Tips Type Stuff
1500 Pg. Of Stimulas Projects Funded
Look Up What You Like (Link)
http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xmsphz/default.htm
The Heat Is Coming Down On China Shorts
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=79188536
http://www.citronfraud.com/
China attacks foreign short-sellers in official editorial
SHANGHAI | Thu Sep 6, 2012 1:34am EDT
(Reuters) - China said foreign short-sellers targeting Chinese companies listed
in the U.S. are engaged in a "malicious act", in an editorial published by the
official Xinhua news service on Wednesday.
The editorial, titled "U.S. firms poison reputations of China start-ups for
profit", represents the first time Beijing has taken a position on a running
public brawl between a group of Chinese technology executives and Los
Angeles-based short-seller firm Citron Research.
The commentary called for the U.S. Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) to
investigate short sellers like Citron and suggested that Chinese companies might
stop listing in the U.S. if they don't receive better treatment.
"With the U.S. economy floundering for so long, the United States cannot afford
to have a capital market that attracts little interest or participation from
Chinese companies."
On Monday, former Google China executive Kai-fu Lee and over 60 other Chinese
business leaders published an open letter accusing Citron Research of
deliberately spreading lies about listed Chinese companies, in particular Qihoo
360 Technology (QIHU.K), to profit when their share prices decline.
Citron Research denied the charges, and said that Lee has a conflict of interest
because he has a business relationship with Qihoo 360.
Short-sellers, who borrow stock to sell at a high price and buy back the stock
at a lower price if share values drop as expected, earned vast sums from
successful attacks on overseas-listed Chinese companies in recent years.
The Xinhua editorial admitted that short-sellers did find genuine problems at
some companies but said that they are now unfairly targeting quality Chinese
firms.
Another company targeted by foreign short-seller reports, China's Sky One
Medical Inc (CSKI.PK), was charged with securities fraud by the SEC on
Wednesday, and investigations into other Chinese companies prompted by
short-seller allegations remain ongoing.
Hong Kong and U.S. regulators want Chinese subsidiaries of Western auditors to
hand over documents related to audits of Chinese companies accused of financial
irregularities but so far the subsidiaries have refused, citing state secrecy
laws.
Long-running negotiations between U.S. accounting securities regulators and
their Chinese counterparts have still not reached a solution to allow American
inspections of audit firms or access to their work papers.
(Reporting by Pete Sweeney; Editing by Eric Meijer)
Says Right In the CNN Link OPINION ?
Hardly Factual
pg. 3 Earnings Call Transcript "Milo"
"We also have access to, and have recently procured, alternative feedstocks to corn such as milo."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/807401-pacific-ethanol-management-discusses-q2-2012-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=3
Operating Margins Using Milo
1.Ethanol + WDG = $2.72 + .73 = $3.45
2.Milo $7.25/2.8 = $2.589
3.Natural Gas = .09
4.Enzymes = .04
5.Yeast = .03
6.Electricity = .03
7.Denaturants = .08
8.Other Costs = .30 (Wages,water,mainenance etc.)
Gross Operating Margin Is Line 1 Minus the sum of lines 2 thru 8.
$3.45 - $3.05 = .40 net profit per gallon
Figure It Out 62,Milo Makes Ethanol Profitable
& PEIX Has It!
West Coast Ethanol $2.725x2.8 Milo $7.25 & WDGS
Looking Much Better!
Milo $7.25 per Bushel (Link)
http://www.gccoop.com/
California issues 2012 Bioenergy Action Plan August 24, 2012
“Swift action on bioenergy will create jobs, increase local clean energy supplies, and help businesses grow in California,” said California Natural Resources Secretary John Laird. “Increasing bioenergy opportunities will also help California meet its climate change goals and protect public health and safety.”
The plan contains more than 50 recommended actions to increase the sustainable use of organic waste, expand research and development of bioenergy facilities, reduce permitting and regulatory challenges, and address economic barriers to bioenergy development.
The 2012 Bioenergy Action Plan updates last year’s plan, and provides a more detailed action plant to achieve several goals, including:
- Increasing sustainable energy production from organic waste
- Encouraging development of diverse bioenergy technologies that increase electricity generation, combined-heat-and-power facilities, renewable natural gas, and renewable liquid fuels for transportation and fuel cell applications
- Creating jobs and simulating economic development
- Reducing fire danger, improving air and water quality, and reducing waste
Major recommended actions in the plan include:
- Increasing research and development of diverse bioenergy technologies and applications
- Continuing to develop and make accessible information about the availability of organic waste and opportunities for bioenergy development
- Streamlining and consolidating permitting of bioenergy facilities
- Assessing and monetizing the economic, energy, safety, environmental and other benefits of biomass
- Facilitating access to transmission, pipelines and other distribution networks
A fully copy of the plan can be downloaded from the California Natural Resources Agency
Ethanol Inventories drawn down Compared to Last Year
US. Ethanol Inventory Level = to Last Year @ this Time,When Block Buster Q3 was Produced
2012 Aug. 08/24 18,494 (Thousand Barrels)
2011-July 07/29 18,901 (Thousand Barrels)
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W
PEIX Vs Corn Chart & Analysis Of Corn Price
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CORN+Interactive#symbol=corn;range=3m;compare=peix;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
Corn Shorts Betting BIG It Will Go Down
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SCOR&p=D&st=2012-08-03&en=(today)&id=p34546740161
Lets See What Happened After Last Years Drought
http://barchart.com/chart.php?sym=ZCU12&style=technical&template=&p=DO&d=M&sd=09%2F01%2F2011&ed=06%2F15%2F2012&size=M&log=0&t=BAR&v=2&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump
What Does Seeking Alpha Say?
I think it is a great swing trade to be scaling into bearish trades
Prices appear to peak during the summer months, then fall off appreciably
prices have had trouble holding above $8/bushel over the last four weeks. Prices are overbought on this weekly chart, and as you can see by the convergence of the trend lines drawn and the Fibonacci levels, it would not be unreasonable to see prices back near $6/6.50 bushel in the coming months
http://seekingalpha.com/article/827321-commodity-chart-of-the-day-corn
What Does Bloomberg Say?
Ethanol Production In U.S. Low Enough To Drain Surplus
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-20/ethanol-production-in-u-s-low-enough-to-drain-surplus-cme-says.html
Bloomberg Says Corn prices may slide to $6.75 a bushel
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-20/corn-may-drop-on-weak-ethanol-demand-capital-economics-says.html
Triple Short Corn ETF Chart Ripping
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SCOR&p=D&st=2012-08-03&en=(today)&id=p34546740161
SCOR 3X Short Corn ETF Chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SCOR&p=D&st=2012-08-03&en=(today)&id=p24355420935
SCOR 3X Short Corn Chart Ripping 3Weeks
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SCOR&p=D&st=2012-08-03&en=(today)&id=p24355420935
Rationing Is Taking Place,Corn Bears Say DOWN
http://barchart.com/headlines/story.php?id=6268026
Ethanol Stays In Gasoline Even If Mandate Ends
By Mario Parker - Aug 23, 2012 1:21 PM PT
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-23/ethanol-stays-in-gasoline-even-if-mandate-ends-energy-markets.html?cmpid=yhoo
Ethanol, the best-performing energy commodity this year, is cheaper than gasoline, encouraging refiners to use the biofuel even if President Barack Obama’s administration ends a requirement to do so.
A 49 cent-per-gallon discount to gasoline provides companies including Exxon Mobil Corp. and Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) an opportunity to profit by blending the corn-based additive into fuel, while easing prices at the pump for consumers. Marketers may use ethanol as they look for the cheapest way to boost engine performance and reduce pollution.
The most severe U.S. drought in 56 years has prompted lawmakers from both parties to ask the Obama administration to suspend the mandate because of the potential impact on food costs. Ethanol will consume 42 percent of this year’s corn crop, according to government estimates, up from 41 percent last year. The biofuel has been blended into more gasoline than ever this year, Energy Department data show.
“It’s just ingrained in the supply and distribution and it’s having a moderating effect on pump prices,” John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund that focuses on energy, said by phone. “As long as they were still allowed to use it, most would. The lower price and just the logistics of taking it out, most would still use it.”
Denatured ethanol for September delivery slipped 3.6 cents, or 1.4 percent, to settle at $2.628 a gallon on the Chicago Board of Trade. It’s climbed 19 percent this year, more than the 16 percent gain for gasoline on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Cheaper Than Gasoline
Still, the biofuel is 16 percent cheaper than gasoline with which it’s mixed, known as RBOB, or reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending. Nymex gasoline extended a 16-week high, rising 1.16 cents to $3.1158 a gallon.
A 2007 U.S. law enacted under President George W. Bush, known as the Renewable Fuels Standard, or RFS, requires refiners to mix 13.2 billion gallons of renewable fuels, such as ethanol, with gasoline in 2012 and 15 billion gallons by 2015.
On an annualized basis, production has averaged 13.6 billion gallons so far this year, above the target. Output has fallen 15 percent from a record 963,000 barrels a day, or a 14.8 billion gallon pace, as of Dec. 30.
The U.S. had the hottest July ever, the government said Aug. 8. Just 23 percent of the corn crop was in good or excellent condition on Aug. 19, the worst assessment for this time of year since 1988, the Agriculture Department said Aug. 20. One bushel of corn makes at least 2.75 gallons of ethanol.
Waiver Requests
Twelve Republican and 13 Democratic senators asked Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lisa Jackson, who enforces the program, to suspend or reduce the country’s ethanol targets in an Aug. 7 letter because of the drought.
That followed an Aug. 2 letter in which a bipartisan group of 156 U.S. lawmakers, led by Republican Representative Bob Goodlatte of Virginia, asked the EPA to cut the requirements. Governors of North Carolina, Arkansas, Maryland, Delaware and Georgia have also called on Obama to halt the RFS.
The EPA asked Aug. 20 for public comments on the waiver requests, and said it has 90 days to make a decision.
“This notice is in keeping with EPA’s commitment to an open and transparent process to evaluate requests the agency receives under the Clean Air Act and does not indicate any predisposition to a specific decision,” the agency said in the Aug. 20 statement.
Alisha Johnson, an EPA spokeswoman, said yesterday that the statement stands.
Economical Fuel
“From the ethanol blending perspective, it puts ethanol back on the footing that it’s a fuel used only if it’s economical,” said Sander Cohan, a global transportation fuels analyst and principal with Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. “It wouldn’t be a complete crash. If you’re an ethanol producer, you’re a little nervous right now.”
The profit for making ethanol has tumbled as corn prices surged to $8.49 a bushel Aug. 10. The so-called crush spread, or profit from making ethanol from corn, for September contracts was minus 31 cents today from 17 cents in May.
Producers including Valero have idled or slowed at least four plants since June. Ethanol stockpiles have fallen 8.9 percent from then to 18.5 million barrels as of Aug. 17.
Gasoline output that includes ethanol increased to 92 percent so far in 2012 from 88 percent last year, according to Energy Department data.
Gasoline Infrastructure
It would be “extremely difficult” to eliminate ethanol, because it is so entrenched in the gasoline mix and infrastructure, Valero Chief Executive Officer Bill Klesse said on a July 31 conference call with analysts and investors. Valero is the largest independent U.S. refiner and third-biggest ethanol producer.
In addition to meeting the government mandate, it’s combined with gasoline to boost octane, a measure of engine performance, allowing refiners to spend less on the crude-oil refining process, Klesse said.
Alternatives to ethanol for boosting octane include alkylate and toluene. Toluene cost $4.205 a gallon on the U.S. Gulf Coast as of Aug. 17, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“U.S. blenders have an undeniable economic incentive to maximize the amount of ethanol in U.S. gasoline,” Vincent Andrews and Hussein Allidina, analysts at Morgan Stanley, wrote in an Aug. 7 report.
Political Pressure
Obama is facing pressure to waive the mandate as gasoline has jumped 15 percent since the end of June, reviving Republican accusations that he hasn’t done enough to rein in fuel costs at a time when unemployment remains above 8 percent.
Ethanol is blended into gasoline in some regions of the country as an oxygenate, which allows the fuel to burn more thoroughly, reducing emissions. It emerged as the primary oxygenate as the U.S. phased out use of methyl tertiary butyl ether, or MTBE, which leaks into groundwater and may pose health risks, according to the EPA.
The industry last year decided not to fight to keep a 45- cent tax credit that refiners received for each gallon of the fuel blended into gasoline, saying the mandate would be sufficient.
Companies don’t have to produce all the ethanol required under the rule. Each gallon of ethanol made is assigned a Renewable Identification Number, or RIN, which helps the agency track whether obligated parties, or refiners, are complying with the blending rules.
Buying Credits
Refiners can buy RINs in lieu of blending a physical gallon of ethanol and because of the over-production over the past two years there are ample supplies from which refiners can draw, Geoff Cooper, vice president of research and analysis at the Renewable Fuels Association, a Washington-based trade organization, said in an interview in Bloomberg’s Chicago bureau.
Ethanol companies have produced beyond the government mandates each year that it’s been in effect, squeezing margins from time to time with gluts, while also dumping excess RINs into the market, Cooper said.
The value of a RIN jumped to 5 cents on July 25 from 1.15 cents on June 19, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The cost has since slipped to 3.75 cents.
“You’re not going to stop blending ethanol,” said Ian Horowitz, an analyst at Topeka Capital Markets Inc. in New York. “If ethanol’s under gasoline, people are going to blend it anyway. They’re not going to leave money on the table.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Mario Parker in Chicago at mparker22@bloomberg.net
Ethanol output to drop 10 percent as price rises
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/28/us-usa-ethanol-output-idUSBRE87R0T720120828