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virtualization beta - the more the merrier.
When it gets good enough for the masses (well, really not the masses, really just my mother), she may be getting a new computer. MSN is her gateway into the world of the net, and she will not live without it or without the latest version of Internet Explorer.
About immodesty on investment boards
Lango thinks I am immodest. Maybe he is right - occasionally, but I think that some of what he refers to as immodest I prefer to think of as transparency.
I think transparency on investor boards is a good thing, mostly. I have made money from the experiences of others - JimisJim, fbe, sfme, baldrick, bootz, tomm and others. I know that some people have made money from stocks I have mentioned - sometimes I have beat the drum for those stocks, other times I have just reported that I own them. Heck, even WLD and LJK have posted some of their trades and successes or not so succesful moves.
Helping each other learn about stocks, about sectors with which we are unfamiliar, bouncing around ideas, suggesting that others do their own DD - these are things that happen on good boards. Lango may consider it immodest, but I rejoice in successes and share mine and congratulate others on theirs. I believe on putting it out there, the good trades, the bad ones, all of them.
A lack of transparency, a refusal to discuss these investment related decisions and moves on an investment board provides the gentle reader with very little basis on which to weigh the words of those who post.
Some really enjoy discussions about the details of hardware, of software, others like to discuss the goods and bads of management. I like hearing how people are investing and trading. I like to hear retail reports like the ones Lango used to write about his chats with people who work in the retail chain and those of fibait.
So, I will continue to report trades and investment decisions - though probably not all of mine. I will continue to be occasionally immodest when I experience success. When I experience unprecedented success, I may display unprecedented and irrationally exuberant immodesty here :).
I won't post Spurs scores, but how about those Cardinals and that Pujols?
AAPL
The bid on AAPL is sitting a bit more than a buck over yesterday's close - we'll see how that does over the pre-market session and into the regular trading day, but....
If the thesis that is is going to be a lukewarm earnings report with lukewarm guidance is correct, and I think the odds are in favor of that, will we get a tradeable intermediate to short term top before earnings?
I still lean toward playing it that way by keeping my AAPL core and selling the shares I bought yesterday sometime. Thise were up close to 7% yesterday, and I am inclined to let them run for a time and then to take the profit.
OT: commodities looking pretty good this morning
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/cfutures.html
lango, if you want to call simple good manners
A high horse, have at it.
This board, in case a reminder is needed, is part of Investorshub. It is nice to have some investment talk every once in awhile.
lango, that is sad
An assistant moderator should be held to a higher standard than that.
lango,
You are too sure of yourself by half, as some of my Brit friends would say. Not much of a distance psycho-diagnostician though, when it comes to delusional disorders - not to mention it seemed a cheap shot aimed at a consistently positive contributor, whether that was the intent or not.
Oh, also, your apology delivered before your message - it didn't read well. Better form to commit the offense and then apologize, I suspect :)
I could get used to this 2.2% a week gain in the portfolio - I know it can't keep up forever, but it has, on the average, for the past 39 weeks. Look good going forward for a bit also...just don't know how long that bit is -but am about 27% cash now.
Hold or sell, hold or sell, hold or sell. Sell some????
I have held some after selling most in Jan. I sold Jan 62.50's to close on Monday - so much for my timing :). This morning I doubled our position @ 62.95.
I do not know what I will do with those shares prior to earnings - I will likely sell the ones I bought this morning rather than take the risk of holding those additional shares through earnings.
I will be in Mexico on the day of the earnings report, but will have access to the net. If Apple drops significantly post earnings, I plan to buy some shares and possibly some Jan calls, but will defer that decision until then.
Paper, congrats on posting the chart in the body of the message!!
What does the Rating mean? it is 99.2 in the chart you posted.
Paper,
Do some interpreting. By when do you expect the lowest or highest possible price?
I think we all know what our respective initial position are on the announcemennt now. Ya'll carry on with the discussions, I've got to go to work and continue on portfolio work from time to time, work that has been producing far beyond my most exuberant expectations.
Hope ya'll are making lots of money also.
I think there will be a lot of people who will buy and iMac and hardly, hardly ever run the OS X on it........at first.....until they decide to try iPhoto or Garage Band or etc..
It is more viral marketing as far as I am concerned, just as the WinPod was and will be a good thing.
lango, this is a step on the way to virtualization. Edit It is my fault that I did not make myself clear on that point in my earlier post.
My predictiom stands.....as we move from this first step - that of running Windows at native speeds, to virtualization, this will be as big as the WinPod and iTunes for Windows.
Snarky comments - you know, I kind of miss Bill Palmer telling us it means the death of Apple Computer *grin*
Blue, it was big enough
for me to decide to double our core position in the pre-mkt @ 62.95. This could be as big as the winPod and iTunes for Windows. I think it will be, but I am trying to be restrained :).
Boot Camp
So, is the big one in terms of goosing up Mac sales? Yep, AAPL up $1.43 pre-mkt
Boot Camp will be a feature in Leopard
CUPERTINO, Calif., April 5 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Apple® today introduced Boot Camp, public beta software that enables Intel-based Macs to run Windows XP. Available as a download beginning today, Boot Camp allows users with a Microsoft Windows XP installation disc to install Windows XP on an Intel-based Mac®, and once installation is complete, users can restart their computer to run either Mac OS® X or Windows XP. Boot Camp will be a feature in "Leopard," Apple's next major release of Mac OS X, that will be previewed at Apple's Worldwide Developer Conference in August.
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"Apple has no desire or plan to sell or support Windows, but many customers have expressed their interest to run Windows on Apple's superior hardware now that we use Intel processors," said Philip Schiller, Apple's senior vice president of Worldwide Product Marketing. "We think Boot Camp makes the Mac even more appealing to Windows users considering making the switch."
Boot Camp simplifies Windows installation on an Intel-based Mac by providing a simple graphical step-by-step assistant application to dynamically create a second partition on the hard drive for Windows, to burn a CD with all the necessary Windows drivers, and to install Windows from a Windows XP installation CD. After installation is complete, users can choose to run either Mac OS X or Windows when they restart their computer.
Pricing & Availability
The public beta of Boot Camp is available immediately as a download at www.apple.com/macosx/bootcamp, and is preview software licensed for use on a trial basis for a limited time. The final version of Boot Camp will be available as a feature in the upcoming Mac OS X version 10.5 "Leopard." Apple does not provide support for installing or running Boot Camp and does not sell or support Microsoft Windows software. Apple welcomes user feedback on Boot Camp at bootcamp@apple.com.
Apple Introduces Boot Camp
Wednesday April 5, 8:30 am ET
Public Beta Software Enables Intel-based Macs to Run Windows XP
Painting a Perfect Picture for Gold
Here is part of the article
....While watching, Russell's still in gold and cash. He also noted last night that his favorite point-and-figure charts suggest gold's next "target" will be up from its current $580-an-ounce range to $690.
Privateer, the Australian newsletter, agrees:
"Gold sustained its $540-to-$570 trading range for just under two months. This week, it was decisively broken through to the upside, thereby signaling the next leg of the bull market." See the Privateer site here.
Privateer is particularly interested in gold's improving technical picture as measured by moving averages. Commenting on the weekly gold chart, the service says happily:
"The gold price regained its shorter-term (20-week) moving average last week and has soared back above it and to new bull-market highs this week. Once again, we have a perfect picture of a bull market on this chart with the shorter-term moving average well above its longer-term counterpart and price well above both and at new highs."
Privateer's also a point-and-figure fan, saying: "You can see the abruptness of gold's recovery from its mid-December and mid-February corrections on the strategic $5 x 3 point-and-figure gold chart. But the most recent retreat from the $570 level gave us a correction with a difference. That downturn gave us a double top on the chart.
"Now, gold has broken above that $570 double top. More, it has broken 3 clear 'Xs' above the double top with its $586.70 close on March 30. That decisively breaks above the recent trading range and also signals two things.
"The first is a new upleg on the bull market. The second is a likely acceleration in the pace with which the U.S. dollar gold price rises. This is signaled by the break above a double top, usually a sign of weakness on a point-and-figure chart."
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?column=Peter+Brimelow&siteid=mktw&dist=
Bootz, I dunno
Time will tell
right?
Down to hard core core here.
I do love a bargain, hope i recognize it when it arrives. I don't have any models right now - who knows, Apple could beat earnings estimates and fly - but I do not assign a high likelihood to that. I could be wrong and still make money.
If earnings are a wee bit disappointing and guidance is weak, we may get to buy AAPL's at a good price. A combination of those with no new product intro's could mean an additional 8-15% haircut, in my opinion. Some opine that MacBookPro + iMac + Mini sales will overwhelm weakness in iBook and towers, but the uncertainty of that is too great, IMO, to put any money into it.
lango, amtech:
Nevertheless, firm believes AAPL will be a great second-half story, and that large investors should use any weakness on near-term concerns to add to positions as firm believes 6 to 12 months from now, AAPL will be at much higher levels.
That is consistent with my view and my plans. Would be nice for me if they are correct.
I sold SLW on Friday, but still holding some GRS. 35% cash now, 20% precious metals, GPXM has grown to 20%, 13.5% energy, about half of that CWPC.
Gold up tonight, we'll see how it goes. It was a great first quarter - looking like the year could be pretty good.
Its been pretty quiet here lately
Any of you guys making money? I just had a pretty good quarter. Well, that is a lie. I just had the best quarter in my investing history. That only goes back to 1998, though.
Pretty quiet anniversary.
We had our 28th today. Apple is ahead of us.
Stocks, AZK, GPXM, CWPC, AAPL, GRS, GG, a few AAPL and GG calls - both may be gone by the end of the next week.
Have sold SLW, NG, AUY, OZN, HAWK, PBW, and ADPT lately. PBW is worth holding though, I think - do your own DD, don't get upset at me if you buy any of these and end up disappointed. Some of them could be viewed as quite risky.
Thanks Tomm
The top-performing precious metals fund was U.S. Global Investors World Precious Minerals (UNWPX) , up 34.5% YTD.
I have owned 5 of their top 10. Pretty much limiting myself to Canada, the US, Mexico, Brasil and Australia for the major producing areas of my miners - just sold my last African mining company yesterday, and it was in West Africa.
Oh, and I got them beat YTD :), but I am sure my holdings are much more concentrated with higher risk - and have included some options that have done okeydokey
While we're thinking about investments and AAPL
On the investing side, I did some selling yesterday - not bearish in my favorite sectors, but I had gone 100% invested a couple of weeks ago and it was time to do some orderly profit-taking and loss-prevention work. I am now 35% cash.
I think Apple will be good for quite a run later in the year. Not sure what the low will be, or if it is in already, but I'm waiting until after earnings are reported later this month.
I am thinking of moving a bunch of the mutual fund 401k equivalent to the money market fund option. It has done well over the past 3 years and there has got to be the possibility of a 10-15% correction sometime this year, I think. I'd rather wait for it in cash while letting the new monthly deposit allocation where it is now.
OT Bootz - Here is another one I am holding and watching Aurizon Mines (AZK)
Should start producing gold by the end of the year from its Casa Beradi property in Quebec. Being a single mine company introduces some risk, but these companies tend to get re-valued as they get closer to and go into production. Of course, delays in opening a mine can do the opposite as one gets close to production. Might be a decent one to two year hold, depending on what happens with the price of gold. Should produce ~ 170k ounces of gold a year.
As always, do your own DD and don't blame me if it disappoints - but how could it disappoint more than the AAPL you have held since near the first of the year :). I think that disappointment will be over within 6 months. Might wait for a dip in the price of gold, but I am not a great timer of these things.
Apple made the list of 10 top wealth destroyers for the first quarter of 2006 - it is a Morningstar list.
I am ready for the 3rd adn 4th quarter of the calendar year, but first, an opp to fully reload. Sold trading shares today - still have Jan 65 calls, but down to core shares.
OT silver etc.
Not to mention NG, OZN, GRS and some GG Jan 27.50's
Pretty good open
OT: Gold and silver running pretty good too <understatement alert :)>
AAPL and CWPC are my underperformers so far this morning *grin*
What a pleasant day in the market.
AAPL up, Jan 65 calls up, precious metals up across the board, pretty much, CWPC up. Portfolio near all time high. Unlike Bootz, I have no dogs and am not much of a kicker anyway :).
If the timing of the phone rumor is accurate (or anywhere near accurate), that will be very nice. The prospects of an iPhone, the completion of the intel transition and the possibility of significant increases in CPU sales due to the anticipated ability to easily boot a Mac to a Windows OS if one chooses to were plenty to maintain a core and add to it a couple of times over the past couple of months (all reported previously here)
Not to say there have not been some twinges of doubt - but not enough to think seriously about selling. Having written that, watch AAPL plummet now *grin* I have also written about what I plan to do if that happens. Those plans are unchanged.
Lanog: But this certainly is starting to have the smell of fear down here
Down where?
I ain't skeered.
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The European Union's top antitrust regulator has warned Microsoft Corp. it won't be allowed to sell its new Windows Vista operating system in Europe if it comes prepackaged with certain features, according to a report Wednesday.
The warning to Microsoft, already locked in a battle with the E.U. over its current operating system, came in a March 20 letter from Neelie Kroes, the E.U.'s antitrust commissioner, The Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition. See Wall Street Journal story (subscription required).
The concerns, focusing on Internet browsers and software security functions, mirror the dispute over software packaged with Microsoft's current system, The Journal reported.
Microsoft said it wasn't aware of the March 20 letter to Chief Executive Steve Ballmer, and couldn't comment.
Marketwatch.com
OT: Dilleet oil sands in the USA
There is less political risk to natural resource extraction in the plains of Canada than on the Western slope of the Rocky Mountains, IMO.
Syncrude says its extracting oil at a cost of $18 a barrel.
OT Bootz mention of CWPC by Herb Greenberg in Reality Check
Regular readers may recall that many months ago I quoted a bright, young value-oriented money manager, who was fond of then under-the-radar Birch Mountain Resources (BMD: news, chart, profile) . That was while it traded on the bulletin board for around $1 -- just before its leap to the American Stock Exchange.
Such highly speculative stocks tend to be far a-field for this column's strategy; on the other hand, considering the pedigree of the manager and the growing importance of oil sands, I felt it was worth mentioning.
What does he like now? Among his favorites: CanWest Petroleum (CWPC: news, chart, profile) , which trades on the bulletin board and owns the second-largest acreage in the oil sands. Key to the story is that unlike most oil-sands exploration companies, which are focused on Alberta's Athabasca region, CanWest is pushing east into Saskatchewan, where there is little exploration of oil sands and no production using it.
The company is expected to seek an Amex listing by mid-year. While the stock has popped, along with surging volume, the money manager believes it's still well below its potential valuation. (And this note: As time passes, and oil sands become the next big frontier, it will also likely become the next gusher of Canadian stock promoters. The trick for investors will be determining which ones are for real.)
Herb Greenberg is senior columnist for MarketWatch, based in San Diego. He does not own stocks (except for shares of his employer), and he does not sell stocks short or invest in hedge funds.
http://www.marketwatch.com/premium/realityCheck.asp?guid={26D0AD71-3E81-4656-BCF2-4D5420CCE402}&...
OT Bootz
On second thought - sell your house, mortgage your future, put it all in CWPC - roll the dice. No guts no poverty *grin*
FWIW, I think it will go higher. How much DD have you done?
Bootz,
I have no advice for you regarding CWPC. I bought at 4.97 and 6.07 and am not buying more.