The idea that the government wont fully monetize its equity stake when it restructures is pure fantasy

Warrants are going to get exercised and spspa are gonna get converted. Diluting commons extensively beyond recognition

add the gse pfd while you can. build a fortress position. the path to heaven on earth

yeah well, if you are in the mood to gamble and you have a history of being lucky and letting other people lose money on the stuff you're selling to them at your gain...

that's one way to live, but i think you're luck is going to run out on this one.

good luck but realize you are paying money for something without security

These higher share price estimates that i gave were when there were still pending legal challenges to the nws. As of this month when the supreme court dismissed the cofc case it is really game over for commons

A true tragedy and it makes me sad but oh well

Fiction huh? So why is it in their financial reports as fact

the warrants are not going to be cancelled, which your username seems to contradict.

0% probability, but i'm glad you found the message board of similarly situated people who agree with you...i am just going to keep calling it as i see it.

the warrants are going to get exercised. and frankly the spspa will get converted too. no security in commons

Try reading more closely.
I feel like you dont even read anything he says.

He says that it isnt happening anytime soon and sold out mostly and you keep asserting that he says something is going to happen soon.

I think what he says is very valuable. I read it all.

GSE Preferred Shares Are The Best Play On Admin Reform
Summary
On January 9, 2023, the Supreme Court denied writ of certiorari on the Takings Claim.

The potential massive dilution of common shares may seem negative for current common shareholders, but it ultimately maximizes the size of the government's ownership stake.

Junior preferred stock interests cannot be diluted, and with the companies retaining earnings, the only real path forward makes them whole, the only question is when.



https://seekingalpha.com/article/4573246-gse-preferred-shares-best-play-on-admin-reform

Do you have any examples of situations where companies tried to implement cramdowns where securities were incentivized to convert at less than face value to new securities and how they dealt with holdouts. Would that be chapter 11?

How would they do that kind of thing

yup. that's correct. goodnight to the dreams of common shareholders

But that would be a lie

I am sorry to hear that the individual is unhappy with the outcome of their investment decisions based on my advice. It is important to remember that investing in the stock market carries a level of risk and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.I do my best to provide information and analysis, but ultimately the decision to invest and the amount invested is the responsibility of the individual. I cannot guarantee or take responsibility for any specific investment outcome. It is important for individuals to conduct their own research, consider their own risk tolerance, and consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions. further, i assign a 100% probability that the warrants are not cancelled. good day.

calculate what that would be and ensure you have enough preferred so that when it goes to par less the current price after tax you're even. thank me later.

100% agree. the days of rooting for common are over. there is no hope.

precisely. and that's for fnmas. the other series may do even better. i see 17x now on the lowest priced ones.

yeah, those words are mine. thanks.. not trying to be misleading, just trying to educate regarding the implications of what has happened since then.

"The shareholders will be heavily diluted when we raise capital." --- last minute of the video. i time stamped 495 seconds in but when you click the video to play it plays from the start --- so skip to 8:15 into the video... and consider yourself educated

he pointed out that it would be up to mnuchin whether the spspa liq pref would be forgiven or sold, but --- at this point there is no legal challenge against it, so ... there is no legal reason why it wouldn't be sold.. "heavily diluted" is how that works in excess of just the warrants. commons have no security

664215 shares, that's pretty good. good luck with them, but note that in preferred you're looking at $5M+ of par value i think.

"in the value of preferred shares"

what do you own? are you on board?

The new information produced by multiple years of discovery in lamberth’s court was included in the filings but that trial went to hung jury on a damages model that is relatively insignificant sad to say

Life is forward looking, only forward looking expectations matter moving forward. I have been wrong and lost in the past. But you are fighting a losing battle if you are betting against me winning here. If they could have zeroed out the pfds they would have long ago and moved forward with recap and release. Pfds have been a thorn in the government’s side and they must be dealt with. Cannot say the same about common which have no security

Trying to help a guy who has $500k on the line

of what? commons? or preferred.

a million shares of common right now is like $500k.

that's quite the gamble. good luck. hope you can afford it if it goes lower.

how many shares, 500,000?

good for you, we are about to get news imminently.

I do not want respect. I just want to serve as a light for anyone who is lost. There is an echo chamber on this board. Common shares have no security. They are a gamble on the government not fully diluting common shareholders via spspa conversion — in a world where there is no legal challenge to stop it.

Common shareholders are on the titanic. The life boats of jps are going to be leaving shortly. Good luck my friend.

Notice how you do not actually disagree with the arguments i am making, which i believe stand on their own. You should really spend more time considering the arguments on their own standing and less time trying to find flaws with my personality. Good advice from someone you think has negative credibility is still good advice. As much as i disagree with your perspective — i do not besmirch your character. I do not make false accusations against you. You allege to be a navy commander. I would think you should act with a bit more respect towards the people who stick up for you and your rights (whether you know it or not).

And even though the securities you choose to own have no security, I do not hope ill will for you financially. That is why I continue talking to you, in the offchance that you may eventually come to understand that, while you feel attacked, I am really just trying to provide a perspective, not necessarily for you, but for anyone who is curious about how this is going to work out and wants to be serious about figuring it out.

Dude where on earth do you get the stamina to put in thoughtful responses to what I genuinely consider to be an unreasonable post?

Like, i cant even spend the time reading your post correcting their post. I just scrolled it and know for a fact you are right.

There has to be a better use of your time. We must find it.

Have you ever heard of common shareholders rooting for lower prices of senior securities heading into a restructuring?

Look, i am not complaining. I hope the price of jps goes lower and stays lower for a lot longer than i expect them to, would be great for me. I think that they do well from here.. cannot say the same for the dilutable securities you are positioning in front of the mount everest of liquidation preferences, ready to melt and dilute dilute dilute. There is no security

if by no one you're forgetting treasury's equity..

You seem to be making this up or guessing. Good luck

Maximizing the common share price is not the same as maximizing the value of the government’s restructured equity. In fact, the government maximizes its restructured equity by diluting commons as much as it can, by minimizing their price

Do you sticky your own posts?

Yep. Agreed. Nothing.

Next couple weeks we will have our answer. So far this administration still has not yet stopped the music on any of its musical chairs. We know there are changes coming, but we have not really seen them yet. I am waiting for the mainstream media to report what i am talking about before i go beyond giving clues on free message boards. That said everyone i talk to (top 20 holders of jps) camp scoffs at the idea

With klain out i guess around the end of next month, i expect that by then this aspect of the transition is settled.

It is all there for anyone to see it. The price is one where no one believes it. Burned victims seldom forget.

Makes me wonder how rapidly the price is going to change the next few months. Zoom zoom. I cant imagine it is a slow move. More like a giant leap. People are stupid but i believe they will pay the price of understanding and even then those that do will make out handsomely

I like $fmccs $fmccj $fmccm — these are just the ones that to me have been the cheapest with not the worst dividend terms. The last two are based on the 2 year cmt which is the treasury rate. The first one has a floor of 4%. Fmcci and fmccg, which i own, have the weirdest dividend formula. I also own some of the fixed rates like fnmfo — but not much. The bulk of my portfolio is in those first 3, so i hope that rates do not go back down to 0% or that part of this restructuring is conversion to common, but i am positioned for both conversion and dividend turn on

In a conversion scenario i expect that the post restructuring commons would pay some sort of small dividend while they retain the rest of their capital and as they hit higher capital levels it would unlock more dividends across time. The problem is that their book of business is exploding with higher home prices nationwide.

That increases capital requirements almost faster than they can make money

So those are my thoughts. I do not care for liquidity — fnmat and fmckj and fnmas are the most liquid of the lot

My advice is to diversify across the freddie mac 50s that are the biggest discount to par. I think even if those series trade to $35 you are still doing rather well and i expect they would trade higher than that in a dividend turn on scenario

1,000,000 / 50,000,000 = 2 cent price estimate.

That is quite the forecasted dilution.

Yes. I read he said that too. Thanks for resharing. I think admin reform continues to move forward. Tim howard will learn

Quoting tim howard

Sounds like somewhere in between. Me too my dude. Cheers from the beach and god speed to you and your quest