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I agree with Mark Hulbert's contrarian view but I wasn't privy to all their indicators. The technicals seem to show bullish support in the S&P 500 index (dipped below 200 dma on for a day or two) but recovered on strong volume. We'll see if the market can get past the 100 dma in the next few days, and recover over the balance of August.
I just wish I had more cash on hand to pick up a few more beaten down biotechs. Guess I'd have to be a fund manager to do that...lol
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=21611067
Sell above 13 and buy below 12.20 has worked for a while now.
Not to nit-pick, but RPRX hasn't seen below $12.2 intraday since May 17th. Granted it did touch $12.21 intraday yesterday briefly, but for the most part has been at or above $12.5 for the past 3 months.
Eventually this narrow trading range will end, and I believe to the upside and very soon. RPRX hasn't really been a high volatility stock at all.... think REGN and JAV as better examples. ;)
Regards,
Spartex
Thanks Wall, I appreciate your expertise and views on REGN.
REGN: up 14% since Monday (Wall it was ripe to pick!)
JAV: up 17.5% since Monday
Two big winners from last weeks sell off.
I agree, it would have made sense to have a conf call post saftey data, as well as resummarizing the June Proellex P2 trials and their results, and discussing any upcoming meetings w/ FDA.
Today's trading was sluggish and a continuation of selling that started with Friday's market sell-off. Frustrating to see RPRX sell off when overall indexes rebounded ~2%. Glad my REGN held the day up 7+%! :)
Yup, Adam Cutler received a BA in economics from Brandeis University, minoring in law, medicine and health policy.
He probably doesn't understand the intricacies of the science/safety risk with Androxal and especially with Proellex. Having a degree in economics, he should at least be aware of the potential market value of RPRX and the fact that it's an undervalued gem in the rough of many poorer prospects in biotech land.
The efficacy results weren't enough, and either was the solid safety results. Hmmm, what's it going to take?? A sledge hammer?? Dah! Keep accumulating RPRX nuts boys and girls.
Coverage should be coming within a month or two in my opinion.
Walldiver, I agree that there is a large list of bargains in the biotech land right now. Are you still in or following REGN anymore?
Regarding CA weather, I think I'd take their weather right now versus Wash DC region where I live. It's still 85 degrees tonight and it is almost 10 pm! Yuk, and I can't wait to see my electric bill next month. Water bill was very high as we are in a drought-like situation. :-0
OT: Bond turmoil worse than Internet bubble: Bear CFO
Friday August 3, 2:50 pm ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bond market turmoil sending investors fleeing from risk may be a worse predicament than the 1980s stock market fall and Internet bubble burst, Bear Stearns Chief Financial Officer Sam Molinaro said on Friday.
"These times are pretty significant in the fixed income market," Molinaro said on a conference call with analysts. "It's as been as bad as I've seen it in 22 years. The fixed income market environment we've seen in the last eight weeks has been pretty extreme."
"So, yes, we would make that comparison" to market events that also include the debt crisis of the late 1990s, he said.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070803/bearstearns_markets.html?.v=1
***************************************************
Very rough trading week for those with "long" positions. The quote above by Bear Stearns CFO on bond market doesn't give one a warm and fuzzy feeling. Hopefully these issues will play themselves out in an orderly fashion. Otherwise, us longs are going to get smacked pretty bad.
$13 seems to be a support level for RPRX the past week.
It has bounced off this price Mon, Tues, Thurs and again today. Hope it holds today.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=RPRX&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
REGN up $1.20 (8.78%) in early trading based on this P3 trial announcement. Market seems to like the news and shorts are probably doing some covering. :)
OT: Bio_Pete sorry to hear about the POZN disaster, on top of the JAV hit. Glad I didn't nibble on them. I agree with rfj when he says I'd like a company to get bought out as it enters PIII trials (like we all hope for RPRX according to CEO's plan). Otherwise going up to the FDA review/decision is usually a VERY tough barrier to clear, with significant downside risk. Hang in there.
OT: Well my REGN is feeling just as painful as JAV's decline.
REGN had some mixed results with one of their trials for breast cancer reported back in early June, and their decline has been from highs of 28 to now 14. Other than that news is good. Ouch. I added to my position in low 18's. Grrrrrrrr. 13-14 seems like the right ticket.
POZN: down 7.67 (44%) on 1.1 mil shares premarket, bidding 9.78
There hasn't been much to be happy about with biotechs in the past month. Very few glimmers of hope.
Dew, re: THRM
So in other words, #1 divided by #2 = Avg. # of procedures per installed device per month? :)
Exercise, caffeine can fight skin cancer By RANDOLPH E. SCHMID, AP Science Writer
1 hour, 43 minutes ago
WASHINGTON - Can adding a cup or two of coffee to the exercise routine increase protection from skin cancer? New research indicates that just might be the case.
The combination of exercise and caffeine increased destruction of precancerous cells that had been damaged by the sun's ultraviolet-B radiation, according to a team of researchers at Rutgers University.
Americans suffer a million new cases of skin cancer every year, according to the National Cancer Institute.
In mice there is a protective effect from both caffeine and voluntary exercise, and when both are combined the protection is even more than the sum of the two, said Dr. Allan H. Conney of the laboratory for cancer research at Rutgers.
"We think it likely that this will extrapolate to humans, but that has to be tested," Conney said in a telephone interview.
Nonetheless, he added, people should continue to use sunscreen.
Exposing the mice to ultraviolet-B light causes some skin cells to become precancerous.
Cells with damaged DNA are programmed to self-destruct, a process called apoptosis, but not all do that, and damaged cells can become cancerous.
The researchers report in Tuesday's issue of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that they studied hairless mice in four groups. Some were fed water containing caffeine, some had wheels on which they could run, some had both and a control group had neither.
"The most dramatic and obvious difference between the groups came from the caffeine-drinking runners, a difference that can likely be attributed to some kind of synergy," Conney said.
Compared with the control animals, those drinking caffeine had a 95 percent increase in apoptosis in damaged cells. The exercisers showed a 120 percent increase, and the mice that were both drinking and running showed a nearly 400 percent increase.
Just what is causing that to happen is not yet clear, though the researchers have several theories.
"We need to dig deeper into how the combination of caffeine and exercise is exerting its influence at the cellular and molecular levels, identifying the underlying mechanisms," Conney said.
"With an understanding of these mechanisms we can then take this to the next level, going beyond mice in the lab to human trials," he said. "With the stronger levels of UVB radiation evident today and an upward trend in the incidence of skin cancer among Americans, there is a premium on finding novel ways to protect our bodies from sun damage."
Conney said the researchers were originally interested in the effects of green tea in preventing skin cancer and were doing tests on regular and decaffeinated teas.
They found the regular tea had an effect, but not the decaffeinated brew.
And, he said, researchers also observed that mice drinking caffeine were more active than those that didn't get it, so they decided to study the effects of exercise too.
They put running wheels into some of the cages. The mice "love to go on it," he said, and will jump on the wheels and run for several minutes, then get off for a while, and then get on and run some more.
And they found that both caffeine and exercise helped eliminate damaged skin cells, but the combination worked better than either alone.
"What we would like to see next is a clinical trial in people," Conney said.
Dr. Michael H. Gold, a Nashville, Tenn., dermatologist and a spokesman for the Skin Cancer Foundation, said he believes "the concept of systemic caffeine should be addressed further."
"I think the concept potentially has a lot of merit," he said in a telephone interview. But mice and humans are different and studies need to be done to be sure this also applies to people.
In the meantime, he said: "If you go outside, you have to wear a sunscreen ... it has to be caffeine and exercise with your sunscreen."
___
On the Net:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: http://www.pnas.org
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070730/ap_on_he_me/fitness_anti_cancer_caffeine_2
Neat study and promising results for people who drink coffee and exercise regularly.
HBK Management: All I know is that they no longer own any RPRX as reported by the 4/07 institutional holdings.
OT: S&P 500 index key support levels.
200 dma is around 1450. Market is trading just about 1.5% above this key support level fwiw. I think it may hold.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=b&p=m50,m100,m200&a=...
OT: JAV - still holding it but my avg. price is near $5 so I'm not suffering too badly. Still its been a heck of a fallout from the upper $6's. My largest holding is RPRX, and I hope my calculated bet is correct.
Valuable post from docbanker on the RPRX Proellex safety results on yahoo MB:
Who knows how this trades tomorrow- perhaps people will get it or perhaps there will be some shorting to dissipate any strength or whatever.
What I do know is this. I was at the RPRX Analyst Day in NYC in January. There were a variety of people there including both portfolio managers and sell-side analysts who either (i) owned or covered the stock in a bullish way or (ii) were waiting for more clarity on Proellex safety (many people simply have not even begun to attribute value to Androxal and may not do so until a lucrative partnership is signed). Those in group (ii) should either have a change of heart or start to do some serious thinking about having one. Even if this is only a part of the amount of safety data that they want to see (perhaps more from PIII trials), the current market cap certainly makes for a very attractive risk/reward profile given what we have seen so far in terms of efficacy (no one has really ever doubted this) and now in terms of safety. Furthermore, the more data I see, I more and more believe that Proellex is a quite different compound from Asoprisnol- though both had strong efficacy, the Proellex onset of efficacy is much faster (and will enable a shorter pulse dosing regimen, whereas Asoprisnol one had to be on drug for a while to see an effect, albeit strong) and now is safer.
Good luck to all longs.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_R/threadview?m=tm&bn=27915&tof=...
Hey, am I good about bringing up the "where is the news? a day before the news is actually released. LOL!
Thanks rfj! We'll see how the market interprets this news tomorrow. I have read from some that this safety news is whats needed to get the stock over $15 bucks, along with gaining more institutional buyer who wait until safety is established. Everyone knows that efficacy is OUTSTANDING!!!
(yes three exclamation marks).
RPRX - can you give any color on the secondary findings within the benign category regarding potential risks?
"The pathologists described this constellation of cysts and epithelial findings as “novel,” noting that they are sufficiently different from what has been seen in clinical practice that their long term behavior cannot be precisely predicted without performing serial biopsies in future extended studies."
This input from the pathologists regardiung constellation of cysts and epithelial findings as "novel" makes me a little bit cautious. Any thoughts you or dewophile may add to these comments would be most appreciated.
Thank you!
Spartex
Nerf, no phone works great. :)
I last called Joe in early April, as I believe you did too. I use this message board as a resource, and if it can keep me from making an additional phone call, all the better. If I make a call myself, I will post it same day on IHUB. Otherwise, I am not adverse to talking in person w/ Joe if I find there isn't much available from their PR's or lack of additional road shows. I think what you've said in your previous email is enough to satisfy me. thanks
RPRX - IMO the next announcement will be safety/slide data- analyzed in late July...annouced shortly after that
Then the IND will be filed in July and it takes 30 days for that to be accepted
The request for meeting will be filed late June/early July, and that request will be granted within 60 days (assuming no delays) so that meeting will happen late Aug, early Sept - we will see some sort of announcement as to whether or not they will be allowed to focus on secondary hypogonadism, or they have to redesign trials to power for libido, or distress, or bone mass or whatever.
Nerf, none of your July 1 news items above have been announced by RPRX yet. Have you even heard about a request for FDA meeting filed yet by RPRX? (on Androxal) May be time to check in with Joe P, unless any RPRX holders have any insights.
Thanks!
June Short interest was:
Shares Short (as of 12-Jun-07)3: 569.46K
Up about 60k shares. A bit over 10% increase.
Seems RPRX is in need of some news to get the stock volume back up. Pretty quiet trading the past month.
Was there a volume surge in JAV from 300's to 600's k the past 30 min? Seems like seller found a buyer at volume in the 4.75 price range.
I think the pissing match will be over after today....at least imho. hang in there folks!
I'm buying here in the $4.8's. :)
bio_pete, was this the last JAV selling hairball??
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=JAV&t=1d
looks like JAV is finally on the mend.
Not sure what Nerf meant by price dropping last time. I believe he meant for the June options expiration, not the drop from 15 high back down to 12-13's level. Someone sold during last June options expiration during the last hour on a Friday. Knocked the price down 50-60 cents if I remember right. anyhooo, we may be facing this gamemanship again later this week. Anything can happen.
bio_pete....nope, I'm just letting you know I'm getting aboard JAV. Hopefully my patience will pay off. regn getting whacked pretty good today too. maybe it was that other competitors AMD trial Dew mentioned causing the sell off? Or is it the $17.5 strike options! those SOBs. ;)
Have a good one -- going albacore fishing off Oregon coast tomorrow morning. Albacore are running very heavy here as waters warmed from usual 52's F to 63 F range. San Diego temps up north and so are the fish! ><))))))*>
Spartex
I just picked up 6000 shares at 5.49 over the past 1/2 hour.
my schwab broker has been wonderful at filling my order at the bid!
I finally jumped in bio_pete. lets see if we can make some money on Javelin!
I don't remember those call/put ratios from the past few months, so can't advise you on whether to wait until expiration or not. May not hurt to wait.
maybe you'll get bullish enough to take a small position!
Nerf, fyi zipjet already has a signficant long rprx position, and I'm sure at much cheaper prices that $13's.
Hang loose!
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/replies.asp?msg=19414126
I couldn't agree more. We are still seeing a large number of pharma partnership deals, and rich ones like the ALNY the other day, as well as pharma and biotech buyouts of little companies like RPRX.
RPRX volume the past 3 days:
ranged between 38-48k shares, 3-4x below the daily average.
interesting, and I see the current bid on the stock moved up 2 cents above the high for the day at 13.09. 13.11 x 13.15
no one is selling. ;) buyers will have to move the price up to get shares imo
Nebido -- yes, IDEV is their trading symbol. Nebido is a testosterone injection I believe (see info below from IDEV site), and imo Androxal drug trumps this drug due to its adverse side-effects over time if I remember the cons correctly from rfj and dewophile.
http://www.indevus.com/site/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=26&Itemid=40
NEBIDO is a novel, long-acting injectable testosterone preparation for the treatment of male hypogonadism. NEBIDO is expected to be the first three-month testosterone preparation available in the U.S. in the growing market for testosterone replacement therapies. Indevus acquired U.S. rights to NEBIDO from Schering AG, Germany, in July 2005. Recently approved and launched in Europe, NEBIDO has a substantial data package which the Company will leverage in its U.S. development activities. In March 2006, the Company announced that the U.S. Food and Drug administration (FDA) had accepted its IND for the Phase III pharmacokinetic study of NEBIDO. A New Drug Application is expected to be filed with the FDA in the second quarter of 2007.
On March 26, 2007, the Company provided an update on its' Phase III pharmacokinetic study of NEBIDO. The Phase III pharmacokinetic trial is an ongoing, randomized open-label (unblinded) study scheduled to conclude the key pharmacokinetic evaluations of total serum testosterone concentrations following treatment with NEBIDO. The Company stated that based on the preliminary data, it is highly likely that at least 75% of patients in the 1000 mg arm will achieve a Cavg within the normal range. Further, no patients in the 1000 mg arm exceeded a concentration level of 2500 ng/dL; four of 97 (4.1%) patients had a peak level over 1800 ng/dL; and 10 of 97 (10.3%) patients had a peak level exceeding 1500 ng/dL. The duration of time any patient had a concentration over these thresholds was brief.
Additionally, the Company stated that based on the available data of the 750 mg arm, it is likely that at least 75% of patients will achieve a Cavg within the normal range. No patients in the 750 mg arm exceeded a level of either 2500 ng/dL or 1800 ng/dL, and four of 103 (3.9%) patients had a peak level exceeding 1500 ng/dL.
Preliminary safety data indicates that both doses of the drug are well- tolerated when given every 12 weeks. The Company expects to update this preliminary report when the study is completed by the end of May 2007 and expects to release final results of the trial in June 2007 and file a New Drug Application (NDA) with the FDA during the summer of 2007.
Male hypogonadism is an increasingly recognized medical condition characterized by a reduced or absent secretion of testosterone from the testes. Reduced testosterone levels can lead to health problems and significantly impair quality of life. Common effects of hypogonadism include decreased sexual desire, muscle loss and weakness, as well as an increased risk of osteoporosis. Today, there are an estimated four to five million men in the U.S. who suffer from hypogonadism. Of this group, approximately five percent are currently receiving treatment with testosterone replacement therapy. The market is highly-under treated and is expected to grow by more than 10% annually. The U.S. market has experienced rapid growth to approximately $490 million in 2005.
Hypogonadism is primarily diagnosed and treated by specialty physicians, specifically urologists and endocrinologists. Routine testing of testosterone levels has become a more common part of men's health evaluations by specialists. The three-month dosing schedule would fit in well with the physician-recommended follow-up of every three months making it convenient for patients receiving treatment. Current treatment options include gels, patches, and injections, the latter of which requires 13-26 injections per year. The Company believes that the unique profile of NEBIDO will present an opportunity in the growing market for testosterone replacement, and that physicians and patients currently using other methods of treatment may be willing to switch to NEBIDO because of the many benefits of three-month dosing, including compliance, convenience, and the maintenance of steady serum levels of testosterone for three months.
LOL bio_pete. On your humor, not the sell off on JAV.
Glad your ISIS is making hay on the Needham strong buy coverage. I still haven't bough JAV yet.....but am close! :)
Question on Proellex and Drug Holiday-
Does anyone know from RPRX presentations or discussion with the CEO whether RPRX is able to use the drug holiday process successfully (no risk of heavy VB during the drug holiday)?
Dewophile, your mention of this asoprisnil made me wonder if RPRX had already crossed the "drug holiday" hurdle successfully.
Thanks for anyone's thoughts on this.
dewophile... fyi, question from RPRX board to you or rfj
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=21032204
thanks!