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GS upgrade - I agree they have been somewhat bearish on INTC for sometime with only a $22 price target. I wonder what their new price target is? Also found it interesting that that they think AMD will 'likely move to an outsourced business model'. I had pretty much thought this was just an idea that AMD was raising up the flagpole to see if anyone salutes. GS seems to think it is a likely move.
No clear reason for the breakout to me. Only what I suspect is the ongoing realization among some (institutions) that Intel will remain in the driver's seat for the next 3 quarters (at least) with the ability to increase both margin and market share. IMO, the breakout momentum really started on Tuesday when INTC diverged from both the QQQs and AMD for most of the morning session until a late selloff left it up in proportion to the market.
Indeed! Looks like it will definately hold. It will take a significant late afternoon selloff to take it down below $23 now. But we have seen that happen before.
It's been a while, but now that you mention it, I do recall that about cameron (aka inteltrader). He was not a very polite individual to say the least. All boards can do without that style of argument since it doesn't really generate any good debate.
Being mainly a lurker on this board (and the old MF board) for years, you guys may not appreciate this comment but here goes anyway. The value of a mas (and cameronjones et al) is that he forces you guys to bring out your A game in the process of refuting their strawman arguments. The research and facts that you guys bring to bear on some posters allows the rest of us to see things as they really are. We are not fooled by any poster's assertions (mas included) that can't stand up to the discourse that occurs on this board. So while it is frustrating (and hard work) for you guys, a lot of us appreciate the effort you go to in refuting bogus assertions. Ok, getting off my soapbox now.
I'm thinking this is mostly program trading buying up the market. I was more encouraged by Tuesday's divergence with the market and the move toward 22.50. However my optimism was dashed when some late trading pushed the price back down to around 22.30 or something. Having said that, I can't deny that the last few days have be nice.
inteltrader, that's the alias I remember. Thnx. If he ever looks back at this board he will no doubt be pleased to see his name lives on 'in infamony'.
Yes that could be it, he was often posting during finals and stuff. But I also seem to remember another another alias. Oh well, he was a riot in any case.
Does anyone remember the name of the AMD fan that used to post on the INTC motley fool board? It was surmised that he was a college kid or something and used to get into it all the time with wbmw and others over there.
i doubt three years....
Alan,
Did Transmeta go through similar rounds of large scale borrowing relative to market cap to what AMD has gone thru (and may need to go thru again in the Q1'08 to Q3'08 timeframe)? I'm wondering if the Transmeta analogy is good one and whether it provides a real precedant as to how long the 'walking dead' can walk?
Re: Menlow
I wonder if the MID device pictured is the one from Asus? If so this report indicates the device may sell for around $200US. That would be an incredible price point if true. While I had discounted the MID as too pricey to have (in addition to cellphones and laptops for all family members etc), at $200 I would definately get one just to have for vacations!
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?type=comktNews&storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:2...
those customers were excited about the opportunity to by puts and shorts ;->
Is telling the story all that is needed? Don't we also need to see evidence in the form of a quarterly report the beats expectations by a significant amount and also increases guidance for the following quarter? I think we need to see these two things actually happen before we have any hope of ever seeing the 30s.
Most groups are still under a hiring freeze and the one group (Chipsets) that had continued hiring thru the most of the freeze just entered a freeze themselves. So I am surprised by the open reqs you saw. Of course interns and silver bullet hirings continue unabated.
The software engineering lead's nightmare: he has 4 engineers all working on critical bug fixes that they each estimate to take about two weeks to debug, merge and deploy. The lead informs management that all current bugs will be resolved within three weeks. The engineers all meet their time committments! Hooray! However the new build reveals a new set of bugs that are actually more difficult to resolve than the first set.
Well it is most certainly a fine line that executives must walk when they own sufficient equity in the company that any sale of their equity position is public information. Being in this position, company executives are almost prohibited from liquidating huge blocks of their equity position without telegraphing that the 'sky is indeed falling' so as to avoid the collapse of the stock price for the shareholders as well as the other executives (peers).
So to me, any significant stock sale (even though the executive may continue to hold a large equity position) is still to be viewed as an important short term indicator that things are not well and that the expectation for short term price depreciation is expected (at least by this executive). The exception to this would if the executive has implemented a regular period liquidation of held shares that occurs every year or every 6 months or something regardless of current price trends or company fundamentals.
"we are disappointed in what appears to be another execution misstep."
Wow an analyst is actually disappointed in AMD's execution. Will wonders never cease?
Sarmad,
What is your price target for Q4'07 and then Q4'08? Q4'09 seems too far out there to have a price target IMO but if you have one I'd be interested in hearing that as well.
re:what are the technicals saying about INTC at this time...
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicates a Bullish Trend.
Chart pattern indicates a Strong Upward Trend.
Relative Strength is Bullish.
Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under Accumulation.
The 50 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.
The 200 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.
Price is above Resistance of 21.84 which is Bullish.
When I see fudzilla in the url, I've learned not to waste my time following it.
But why aren't the financial analysts using all available information to formulate their analysis? If they were they would be using boards like this one to gain insight into the company fundamentals that can only be found through the exchange of information by technical specialists that frequent this board (and some other boards as well). The only reason I can come up with is that the financial analysts are not allowed (by their managing institutions) to base any analysis on any information other than the analysts own due dilligence or the due dilligence of others in the organization. Otherwise I would have expected to see more upgrades 6-9 months ago when the writing was already on the wall.
Shame on AMD{/i]
There seems to be a slight reversal in the sentiments of analysts and journalists alike in recent weeks toward AMD. I wonder if this is an inflexion point that marks an increase in negative AMD stories vs. positive ones? I hope so anyway.
Just bought 5200 shares of INTC at 19.14. I'm optimistic for at least some run up over the next month. We will see.
I'm thinking of adding to my long position in here at around $19. I feel that at some point in the next few weeks the price may begin to be bid up in anticipation of Q1 results. Any thoughts from the group?
mas welcome back dude,
Although your optimism on INTC surprises me. Have you turned over a new leaf or is this just the calm before the storm?
So if GMs remain at or near the 50% mark as predicted thru Q4'07, does that mean we are in for another year of dead money in INTC? Will we have to continue to recite the mantra of the Chicago Cub fan 'just wait til next year'. Each year it seems there is something we have to wait for in order for INTC to see any gains in it's stock price. Will '07 be just another year where we are waiting for MSS to increase so that we can grow GMs a little in '08?
One statement still haunts me from an email written by a senior Intel executive to a disgruntled employee from more than a year ago: If you don't like it you can always leave (Intel), either you believe or you don't.
I so want to believe.
more likely that the price reductions in '07 are already 'baked in' to the 50% GM prediction.
Trust me: their opinion isn't about to budge, no matter what you say, and no matter what happens.
This can often be due a natural response that occurs when you are 'married' to an investment (i.e. you are so tied up in it financially that you can't or don't want to see the truth). Something I too have been guilty of at times I must admit. But the real surprising thing to me is that many of them over have stated that they have no equity ownership in AMD but still they seem to be stuck on a number of weak arguments that suggest the future is bright for that company. Kind of a disconnect there.
Yep, just saw that myself.
Seems like it should be illegal to claim that since saying he is an Intel employee might give his view more credence to the masses. Guess I could write an article 'Why AMD may go bankrupt' and claim to be a vice-president in AMD's finance dept. Just doesn't seem right.
Why you shouldn't buy Intel
http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070302/28495_id.html?.v=1
This guys article bugs me a little. His disclaimer at the bottom states the following:
Full disclosure: I work for Intel (not as a Director or 10% shareholder), and have a net long position in INTC stock via my Employee Stock Option Plan. I do not have any long exposure other than the one listed above.
I guess it bothers me that a fellow employee is trying to drive down the value of my rather large long position in INTC. I think it is one thing to express an opinion on the stock in a message board posting vs. a published article. Any thoughts on this? Or do I just need to get over it because its still a free country etc.?
87.78 million query transactions per second!
How depressing, as I sit here trying to resolve SQL query timeouts for my team's device driver build system.
Sadly, some analysts still aren't 'getting ALL of it':
Meanwhile Philip Durell, a senior investment analyst at Motley Fool, said that given the price war, the only way to invest that makes sense is with Intel.
The analyst said that when there's a battle between a duopoly, typically the company with the bigger muscles wins. AMD may command a technical lead with its chips for servers, but Intel's new products are good enough for most people, the analyst said, noting Intel's ability to cut costs.
Durell, who also thinks the price war will subside, said Intel's stock is poised to climb if the company's margins improve in 2007.
"We love companies that have compressed margins and a long history of success," said Durell. "There's a whole slew of value managers in Intel at the moment, it tells you something."
Some positive remaarks on Intel in this article, more signs that investors are starting to 'get it':
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070201/intel_advanced_micro_war.html?.v=1
I couldn't help but chuckle over this line though:
"We are very bullish" on Intel, said Barish, noting that the firm just got back into the stock in mid-July.
It must be hard getting his customers to go long with a name like that. :->
Re: CNBC to feature an analyst this afternoon that thinks 'now could be the time to pump cash into AMD' (paraphrased from Maria). Perhaps it will be Doug Freedman, seems like this will be a tough argument to make though.
The analyst was indeed Doug Freedman who made a rather muddled argument that with Barcelona coming out mid-year 07, which can only improve AMDs position, that we are close to a bottom now and should be investing our cash into AMD at this time.
I'm not sure he really believed what he was saying himself. He wasn't very convincing. Just my observation.
CNBC to feature an analyst this afternoon that thinks 'now could be the time to pump cash into AMD' (paraphrased from Maria). Perhaps it will be Doug Freedman, seems like this will be a tough argument to make though.
yes I posted those.
clearly it does, you keep responding.
Anyone have any data points about this motherboard demand question. Two camps seem to forming, one citing falling motherboard demand and cpu inventory build for INTC and the other saying its not an issue.
Doesn't seem like the Oregon campus would be targeted specifically does it? Isn't this just part of the overall headcount reduction that Intel will undergo during this restructuring?
Fed pauses <eom>