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Yet those few on here claim common shareholders will be wiped out. Lmao. I've never seen a company that makes 2.8 billion wipe out any shareholders! Maybe conservatorship is about assuming all rights until the ship is righted? It's not our fault that an 8 year administration screwed the pooch because A. They got greedy, and B. Did not know WTF they were doing.
Those trains and money bag emojis are gonna bunch up some pantys in 3...2....1....
Lol
Yup, truth in all that.
Those who post restructuring neglect to acknowledge THE FACTS that this is not a company induced loss of capital through bad business decisions (as we all know). This was a hit and run setup theft by government to cover for the banks, then it turned into a full scale theft of ALL THAT THE COMPANIES WERE MAKING, that disappeared into the treasury black hole. The CORRECT THING TO DO is to make whole or help the companies along to become whole (this one is happening, we retain capital).
Government does not want to be back in this same situation in a few years if they do end up releasing the GSE'S, so you can bank that they will make dam sure they are stable. You don't make these company's stable by robbing and pillaging even more and more, especially by enriching a share class, if the true priority is preserve and conserve for release.
Housing is 15-18% of GDP!, you really think they will play games with that by releasing financially weak companies or by cluster-fuking all shareholders and making a new company? Why make a new company? Same problems will be there. The only ones pushing this are JPS, the new conversion dream is new company shares, lolololol
The whole court system is a nightmare "who's on first" routine on this whole saga. They keep making botched rulings to CYA for government, and now the smart lawyers are hopefully turning the tables with those sorry azz'd rulings. One court cant rule correctly in hopes of clearing the case in front of them because it may or will adversely affect another government case somewhere....yeeeehaw, good for the idiots.
Maybe (hopefully) all the case lawyers will strategize against the corrupt court system?
Maybe there's real hope going in that direction? Judges making these obtuse, confusing, and erroneous rulings that only a donkey can understand has got to come back and bite'm eventually....you would hope.
EternalPatience, this might help her....
Should I Stay Or Should I Go?"
Darlin' you got to let me know
Should I stay or should I go?
If you say that you are mine
I'll be here 'til the end of time
So you got to let me know
Should I stay or should I go?
It's always tease tease tease
You're happy when I'm on my knees
One day is fine and next is black
So if you want me off your back
Well come on and let me know
Should I stay or should I go?
Should I stay or should I go now?
Should I stay or should I go now?
If I go there will be trouble
And if I stay it will be double
So come on and let me know
This indecision's buggin' me (esta indecisión me molesta)
If you don't want me, set me free (Si no me quieres, librame)
Exactly whom I'm supposed to be (Dime! ¿Qué tengo ser?)
Don't you know which clothes even fit me? (No sabes que ropas me queda)
Come on and let me know (Pero tienes que decir)
Should I cool it or should I blow? (¿Me debo ir o quedarme?)
Split
(Doble! ¿Me frío o lo soplo?)
(Esperda)
(Rrattarrattarrattaa...)
Should I stay or should I go now? (Yo me enfrio o lo soplo)
Should I stay or should I go now? (Yo me enfrio o lo soplo)
If I go there will be trouble (Si me voy, va a haber peligro)
And if I stay it will be double (Si me quedo, es doble)
So you gotta let me know (Pero que tienes que decir)
Should I cool it or should I blow? (¿Me frío o lo soplo?)
Should I stay or should I go now? (¿Me frío o lo soplo?)
If I go there will be trouble (Si me voy, va a haber peligro)
And if I stay it will be double (Si me quedo, es doble)
So you gotta let me know (Pero que tienes que decir)
Should I stay or should I go
It won't be just one. Many, I would think, are pissed and getting more so. I sure am. If there's ever a time when the government has needed a thorough house cleaning, it's now.
Great tweets on that thread!
Call FHFA and tell them you demand your fulcrum security be recognized and given par (before release? After release?) YOU decide which, I gurantee you will be laughed at.
You're capital structure DOES NOT MATTER RIGHT NOW! Only in bankruptcy or dividend pay out.
The recap will happen...yes, but not until lots of other things are cleared up.
The courts CAN NOT FASCILITATE a stock/preffered offering for recap
The lawyers CAN NOT FASCILITATE a stock/preffered offering for recap
Now ask yourself...Is it smart for government to go gung-ho exercising seniors, warrants to suck much needed capital out of two places who support like 17% of the economy via housing? Does government want them back in conservatorship a year or two later because they got greedy? Smart folks would say no, make sure they are very stable. You don't make a company stable by ruining share price and investor confidence or by stealing blindly from them.
The companies CAN FASCILITATE a stock/preffered offering...once released.
It is highly more likely, if the companies were wronged, then a derivative award to the companies, which will add to their cap stash.
The courts are gonna try their damdest to avoid any direct claim to shareholders period. They've shown this already.
You are placing a very big bet on Lamberth...what's plan B? His court meets in July. So you will not get any decision until 6 months or more after that. Then what about appeals? Or who knows what. By the time you have a final outcome in Lamberth's court it will be 1.5 to 2 years from now. Gse's are retaining about 20 billion per year. Currently about 70 billion. By then approx 110 billion and possibly a derivative based court award of the overpayment. So, how much is that capital structure gonna matter when it counts, at release?
Oh yeah! When you bet the farm, you can lose the farm.
Nice twitter thread, BTW
That's correct! JPS have NO VOTE or contract rights while in conservatorship. Their rights do not get reinstated until release, just like commons.
And then shares go to $100 plus and all the JPS sell their shares and leave the companies and government holding the bag! Nice dream if you can dream it.
You noticed how his April or whatever predictions keep getting bumped, Eh? Lol me too
So the lawyers are now controlling release and the housing market! Where do you get this stuff? WTF! No, absolutely no. Lawyers will not dictate this release and neither will judges. They will determine harm and awards. I thought you were Aticus Finch?
The judges are way beyond their depth, if this is true, then the lasyers are probably 3x that. The government has a frick'n army at FHFA being paid by these companies to sit with their thumbs up their ass. Release is not difficult if the unlawful harm is undone. That unlawful harm is where the ourts and lawyers come in. They are not going to dictate how the release happens. I want whatever you're smoking on that beach. Lol
There's no legal support for 100%-150% par or conversion yet you insit the cases will do that. How long have you been predicting now? And what's cone of that?
Then why are they not at par now?
That should be scrolling on every news station. The hypocrisy of the DC establishment swamp.
They've been paid like a pay day lender. Is only one of a few similar comments made by judges and also in the media.
You're going to find out, obviously the hard way, that not everything is going to be about legal arguments. Are you an investment guy or an armchair Atticus Finch? Lol
A point will come where doing what is best for the GSE'S and that concern, whether it affects any shareholders positively or negative will be determined, most likely, by the companies!
You are also not factoring any settlement that could possibly happen, but of course you probably believe any settlement will wholely be dependent on JPS coming out way, way ahead. Lol
Your belief in JPS is borderline narcissistic. I could see that as being reasonable if this was a bankruptcy, but it's not and never will be.
You neglect as part of your reasoning that government can only be greedy to a point, they can't take everything and neither can JPS without market reprecussions. They will make sure to conserve the GSE's to the point that they do not end up back in the hands of government unless nationalized as utilities. You're reasoning is all about how whatever's left from securing the GSE's and housings future is somehow going to make you and government rich. That is flawed, because government has two priorities...themselves and then the GSE's. Shareholders are mostly along for whatever ride occurs.
You provide no court cases yourself explicitly explaining how JPS must get 150% par, or must get par, or must get converted, or must be top priority, lol and how any of that would transpire. Is there a court case pending that states making JPS rich beyond everyone and everything else at play in this drama, for giving them 100% or 150% par, or how about one saying JPS must be converted? Face the music, it's all speculation. I understand your need to plea your case and to be 100% correct in your analysis since you bet the farm on this, but those of us in commons are just using logic and common sense as to how this SHOULD progress, which we're hopeful level heads will follow eventually.
Fantastic Guido. We should all have the tenacity of a bulldog, like yourself. Maybe we'd get further along. I try with what I can. I know we are all beyond pissed and dumb struck at the courts. There's still some good people though. Hopefully we reach the right ones eventually.
I remember commons being worth more than most preferreds before this conservatorship. If you go by appreciation of the market over past 15 years, and the fact that we are in otc, this could go to 150-200 p/s based on earnings alone. Those $50-$100 and higher prefs with rediculous dividend rates could be called at 50%, 60% and many would sell before being cancelled.
Since thrown into this unnecessary conservatorship nothing has changed about the GSE's financial and market strength.
No one has any idea how this goes until released. You seem to think courts or government will do the cap process? How many times was it said by multiple people, in the government and the media, "the companies will be responsible for their capital requirements". That would dictate a process to release. Such as....
#1 FHFA try to get the required and necessay agency changes made, (Cap rule), and YES they've been raising capital quarter after quarter for awhile now.
#2 get as many court cases settled as possible.
#3 release must happen when enough minimum capital is attained, all shareholders and their rights reinstated. This has to happen, or you JPS holders would never be able to vote if given the choice to for any conversion. You have no contract or other rights currently. They are assumed by FHFA. Says very clearly in conservatorship law. Commons would be able to vote on any cap raise scenario the BOD would propose.
#4 companies decide how to raise capital, inputs are going to be from government retaining a few plants on the BOD. All Shareholders will be involved. What happens here, no one knows. This is where they'll need market input, government input and shareholder input. A grand bargain.
#5 fully released and capitalized
Why would government skip necessary steps and cluster-fok this worse to make a small group uber-rich? They won't!
Order of priority:
1 Government (taxpayer)
2 Gse's and housing market
3 shareholders
Once you realize this order, you will know you're fulcrum security is very low on the totem pole of things.
On the contrary, thank you!
Did ya shoot that stuff about the over paid FHFA into the twitter-verse? I bet many out there following GSE stuff don't know.
You do good work Guido. Maybe see if Seeking Alpha needs a good GSE reporter? Go grab that ten cent per click on your article and give the site some much needed competition and other perspective. Lol
I have no doubt you could do it! I'd follow it.
These guys don't understand this! Big red flag.
Exact-a-mundo Navy! The government is worried about the government 1st and foremost (often referred to as the taxpayer - lmao rof), GSE's and capitalization 2nd, everyone else last. Too many do not see this order of priority, aka pecking order. The government needs to do what's right to avoid further litigation, and if they want to have a strong housing market, then do what's right by the GSE's, which by extension means all shareholders.
The JPS pumpers here trying hard to get out of illiquid positions, I guess, probably trying to switch to commons! How? You may ask...it's simple, talk up the JPS as if it is the fulcrum (lmao) security and then bash commons. Notice, those holding commons are not selling here and also not bashing JPS, just pointing out they are in the same tub of shit as commons.
All the useless talk about liquidation prefference in Lamberths court is a non issue. Read the definition:
A liquidation preference is a clause in a contract that dictates the payout order in case of a corporate liquidation. Typically, the company's investors or preferred stockholders get their money back first, ahead of other kinds of stockholders or debtholders, in the event that the company must be liquidated
GSE'S ARE NOT BEING LIQUIDATED! how many times does that have to be repeated? Never going to happen. So JPS have their back dividend issue in Lamberth's court, they state contract claims. Ha-ha. Two big hurdles!
Non cumulative IS specified in those contracts, specifically for the purpose of protecting much needed capital when companies experience hard financial times, go figure..
SCOTUS: government (FHFA) can do what they want to protect the public. JPS don't think Lamberth will site this? I got news for ya...
Unless the JPS argue that it's a takings, doubtful they get any dividend back pay. Courts realize this would affect commons also, they're not stupid in that sense.
I am not Skeptic, lol but this will get pushed out if whatever cases in the pecking order are not resolved, and right now, no judge is doing their job! They keep playing musical chairs wanting some other court to decide something else before they decide, a whole "who's on first" fiasco to avoid culpability.
I'm still betting it bumps out 6 more months, maybe 9, pushing it into 2023.
Solyndra. Another Berry, supported catastrophe.
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-solyndra/obama-admin-knew-was-cheaper-to-cut-off-solyndra-republicans-idINL2E8J25BD20120802
Not corporations, but whole industries, they want to take over or influence practically. Obamacare!
When government puts itself in a position of power over the free market, it reduces competition, increases prices and provides less than stellar services. The current administration wants government to compete with anything they deem not to their liking. Like wanting to control drug pricing.
Also says absolutely nothing about giving any shareholder an upperhand. Shareholders are ALL hopefully reinstated, made whole only through court ordered remedies, whether direct or derivative.
FHFA (governments own explanation & Q&A on conservatorship. Doesn't seem to jive with HERA or SCOTUS views
https://www.fhfa.gov/Conservatorship
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Documents/fhfa_consrv_faq_090708hp1128.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjwpP_esOb1AhXxlIkEHWYQAlUQFnoECAQQBg&usg=AOvVaw2QhmHzL_2s7iWUdK4SiANJ
That would be because of the kite
That makes a great analogy! GB flying high in his kite are the JPS gang, the big shark behind is the govetnment. Now...ya gotta ask yorself how fair is that big shark going to play, and exactly how hungry is he? There are other fish in the sea (commons) but the shark see's that big juicy (dividend) target floating up there. Why expend the energy chasing all those other fish when he can swim casually along and wait for the unexpected fall. Lol
Lol. Turttle swimming sideways!
These guys never explain how treasury/government gets rich while simultaneously making JPS richer and still covering the capital short fall. It's like their going to do a Penn and Teller act and magically pull boat loads of money out of their rears. Lol
Don't forget to pass it around! Don't be stingy!
Does anyone know if this Enbanc decision has a firm deadline, by law? Or can they just sit on it indefinitely?
It seems every court involed in this has used the max amount of time before opinioning and used the tactics of extensions to the max also....hmmmmm
How do the lawyers petition to do this?
https://www.law.cornell.edu/rules/frcp/rule_62
For sure, there's a number of things that could paralize these companies and thereby the housing market if left under government meddling.
He doesn't really say or explain what he means by "too late". The government is playing Russian roulette with our companies.