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It’s called the cost of financing to uplist. They needed more favorable financing than was available to R/S and uplist. NOBODY would have been happy other than the financiers with the terms. While dilution is a necessary component of moving Pro-140 through the approval process management has a responsibility to not get raped in the process. We are in a tight financing position because of the current SP which is a reflection of the string of warrant backed Paulson raises. It’s simple math. The company knows it and anybody with their head in the game knows it. 95% of my position is through Paulson. I get it.
Investors utilizing the warrant backed Paulson raises are keeping a lid on the SP by dumping their what seems to be endless supply of cheap shares- and more coming in the short term. Tony C pushed for uplist to Nasdaq to break this relentless cycle. Current SP represents the fundamentals of our source for raising $, not valuation. Meanwhile BP watches with no pressure to move.
So the focus by Tony C and his team is to advance clinical trials and gain FDA approval knowing Pro-140 will eventually translate to $Billions in market value.
We have the secret sauce and it will not be given up until the price is right regardless of how worthless the manipulated market makes it appear.
Another great post Finesand. Keep your valuation centered posts coming. I sleep better:)
Thanks Dolphin. Your contribution is unique and one I know little about. Because of you I know much more about charts. Thanks again.
Thank you BH. The same is felt about your posts and for that matter many here who make huge contributions. Of late Finesand has put some real meat on the table. I’m a numbers person because they don’t lie as long as the underlying data is not flawed. Great job Finesand.
I know several investors with huge positions in CYDY that give no credit to message boards and never even take a peak. They tell me they are a complete waste of time. I disagree because this board is special IMO. It has transformed from basically no dialogue years ago to a stream of valuable daily content. For the most part a collection of insightful, articulate educated investors that demonstrate humility. People I think I would call my friends. Those with differing opinions included. When I don’t post it’s because I have nothing of value to add that hasn’t already been stated more clearly then I could have.
That is exactly how I view Tony C and management for the most part. People I can trust whose intent is genuine and represents the SH. I asked a year ago if he would sell for $4 a share. He confidently said “NO”. They have made mistakes but that doesn’t mean the bone they are hanging onto is ready to be buried. Lots of meat left on this bone despite diluting at painful prices with matching warrants. That’s why it’s one small raise at a time until the inevitable tipping point of data changes the course of this investment and makes all the Longs here look like geniuses.
Ok for the sake of going any further down this path l agree there is room for improvement. And yes just because you don’t have solutions doesn’t mean you shouldn’t post your opinion. I don’t profess to have the solutions. What I do know is Tony C is competent, aware of the moving parts and doing all he can do to get this to an end game. And yes, the current SP sucks and the company is feeling it just as much as the SH’s.
It’s not forbidden. It’s a difference of opinion.
The real question is as Bulldog stated “what would you differently?” That is why I disagree with your opinion. I don’t see anything in your Posts that define what you would do differently that they are not doing.
You are correct, SP is critically important as referenced because it dictates the price of capital which impacts the value of our investment. The company knows that and is open to any suggestions that could be implemented to positively impact the SP. They will continue to raise in small increments until the playing field changes. All I’m saying is Tony C and management IMO is much more competent than you state.
This dialogue is called investor fatigue which is directly tied to the current value of our investment compared to perceived value. A disconnect that translates into who the f... is running the show. The market dictates SP not management which is associated with risk. We are on the cusp of taking a quantum leap forward in terms of derisking Pro-140. The market will not ignore that.
Your opinion is respected and understandable. I just see it differently.
Could not agree more BULLDOG.
Lots of geniuses on this board that should be running this company. They would get their head handed to them if they had the balls to talk with such candor with Tony C. He talks to many no it all frustrated major SH’s. The conversation always ends with “well I guess I wouldn’t do anything differently, never thought of it that way, ah I didn’t know that”, etc.
Do you think a guy with his background and experience is really this ignorant? He’s not here for a paycheck, he’s here to rock the HIV space which he is all too familiar with in terms of the barriers, the players, the language, negotiation, and the clinical stage of development that will tip the scales. Current SP is important but not nearly as important as navigating the FDA gauntlet.
Companies go BK because they run out of money - not by diluting. Diluting shrinks our stack but it’s still a sizeable stack that going to be cashed in.
That’s the way I see it Bulldog.
My bad. Didn’t mean to post duplicate info. I guess we are on the same group email.
"New Drugs in the Pipeline for the Treatment of HIV: a Review", ?Sep 2017
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/282295630796161024/437988934283165726/unknown.png
Thought this was of value to post. Not many HIV drugs in P3. We are on a short list. We have an audience that is very interested IMO. The poker game is on.
HIV-1 Anti-infective antibodies review ??Work in Progress (WIP) ??So far then, competitor field is: ?- Ibalizumab (IZ) targeting host CD4 receptor, TaiMed+THERF approved 2016-2018, 46% VL reduction, AEs + SAEs ?- Fostemsavir targeting HIV-1 gp120 protein , ViiV Healthcare + GSK, phase 3 success: 0.79 log10 c/mL vs 0.17 log10 c/mL; p<0.0001, 18% AEs ?- Pro 140 targeting host CCR5 receptor, Cytodyn, phase 3 until August 2018: > 0.5log10 p<0.01 up to >=1.8log10
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/282295630796161024/437990405255200768/unknown.png
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/282295630796161024/437990931753467914/unknown.png
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/282295630796161024/437993572453580800/unknown.png
"New Drugs in the Pipeline for the Treatment of HIV: a Review", ?Sep 2017 ?
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/282295630796161024/437988934283165726/unknown.pngm
Nobody has a crystal ball and that includes you A17. We base our speculation on information. You interpret one way I for one interpret quite the contrary. We shall see.
Once again finesand well stated.
The company was surprised at how little the SP was impacted with the Combo PE PR. My take is the manner in which the PR was written was like reading tea leaves.
In their eyes Combo PE means we have a drug that is going to get FDA approval. Only question is the depth of the label. That IMO derisked our investment from being a bust to a guaranteed winner at some level.
You framed the reason for the current SP about as clearly as can be articulated. I hope you are correct with the ASM in June. Bottom line is the undeniable strength of Pro-140 will become increasingly clear as we move through Q2-Q3.
The question is where in this process will a partner show themselves?
Lol
Would I prefer a deal and no R/S? Absolutely. If a deal were on the table the company would not R/S, however that is not the reason why the R/S was terminated. The sinking SP along with what the company determined were very unfavorable financing options to make the jump was the reason for pulling the R/S.
IMO the company is very confident in final Combo data and the way the Mono Trial is progressing. The upcoming catalysts are Combo BTD and BLA submission green light from the FDA followed by Interim Data on the Investigational Mono Trial hopefully being strong enough to convert to a Pivotal P3. Any one of those events could trigger a partnership. Pulling off a trifecta would all but guarantee a partnership. Obviously if a partner surfaces the R/S is dead and the only piece to the puzzle left will be how much we all exit with.
Reality is management is going to move forward with a strategy that is not dependent on a near term partnership. That means raising capital in small chunks, advancing trials, and taking steps to clear the way for commercialization of Pro-140. All of which increases the value of Pro-140 because it decreases the cost and time to market for the buyer.
The numbers that finesand has put together outlining the value of Pro-140’s potential applications are in my mind quite realistic. Even if Pro-140 was to fail with Mono and GvHD (which I don’t believe will happen), Combo value is going to attract a partner when it becomes clear that it will be approved. That day is close at hand and managements thinking is that being listed on the Nasdaq would be highly advantageous rather than remaining on the OTC.
Obviously Tony C is spending the majority of his time cultivating potential partners and working on the checklist to commercialize Pro-140. I think it is safe to say there is size-able audience watching the progression of the Pro-140 clinical trials as well as each other. The chess game is on and Tony C is making the moves. Because we are all left out in the dark it can appear nothing is happening because we measure progress in terms of SP. It’s a shame we can’t go behind the curtain because we would all probably sleep much better.
Excellent assessment finesand. As you stated there are catalysts coming that will derisk Pro-140 substantially. The value of the science is approaching a tipping point.
Appreciate your knowledge and humility you demonstrate in this board. Our day will come!
I believe more patients are needed on the 525ml dosage to have enough statistical relevance to make the case to convert to a Pivotal P3 with the FDA. Not sure what the numbers are at this moment.
It appears that securing Combo BLA and a clear path to approval is the immediate focus. A partnership is quite possible at that juncture as the company is convinced there is $Billion value with Combo alone. I think Misu would agree their are many patients that are needing and waiting for the efficacy, safety and healthy alternative Pro-140 offers.
Once again advancing the trials and working closely with the FDA is the key. The further down the approval road we go with Combo the more likely a partnership IMO. Mono coming in behind will increase the value and likelihood of a partnership and eventual buy-out if converted to Pivotal P3. Could be an eventful summer.
It’s simple. The private raises at .50 and matching warrants at .50 create a short term floor and ceiling on the SP at .50 until the active warrant holders dump their .50 shares. This is pure economics. Nobody is exercising warrants they are selling their shares to cover themselves. Example: I buy 100k shares on the private raise and get 100k warrants with a 5 year expiration. Talk about a great investment. Sell all my shares at .50 and keep the warrants. Now I have zero skin in the game but I have 100k warrants to exercise if and when the company is purchased. Because we are on the OTC we can’t get enough buyers in the game to blow out the cheap shares.
The good news is there will be a tipping point regardless of the SP that will be equal to the real value of Pro-140. The FDA likes what they see and the company knows what they have and they are not going to give this baby away. There will be more dilution because the company has to sell shares to raise money until a partner surfaces.
Fortunately the company had the fortitude to pull the R/S because of financing that would have been very unfavorable to its shareholders. Anybody who thinks these guys are idiots just looking for a paycheck has no idea of what is going.
Our emotions are tied to the SP not the reality of what is actually taking place. I think their is major interest in Pro-140 we just haven’t reached the tipping point. It may be we are not all that far away from an interested party that will start the fear of loss scenario rolling. It only takes one.
Rab, your never bugging me. I’ve had some other details in my life that need ed my focus.
I’m still very bullish although the attempted R/S appears to be very poorly thought out. All I can say is Tony C has really been on the hot seat as he is running the show. There has to be factors that are more complex then it appears to all of us on this message board. I’m working through my network to get to the truth because I have to have confidence in Tony C’s decision making.
I have to believe Mono Interim is still in line with Q2. They need a broad enough patient population on the increased dosage (375ml to 525ml) to determine efficacy. The email from Nader tells us the data looks strong enough to convert the investigational to Pivotal P3. A green light from the FDA to convert will get BP’s attention as the likelihood of gaining Mono label approval shifts to a very high probability. Will BP take us out at that juncture or will they roll the dice hoping Pro-140 fails? I have to believe converting to P3 will radically shift momentum and the seriousness in which BP views this little nat that has been buzzing around that they can’t seem to smash. Just may be they will have no choice but to make room for Pro-140. Combo doesn’t force their hand but Mono threatens the near HIV monopoly that exists between Gilead and ViiV. IMO Mono Interim readout is going to determine Pro-140’s destiny. Do we have a blockbuster or an add on drug in the Combo space? We should know in the next few months.
Bud, I’m not certain about a positive date, I’m optimistic about positive interim data but asked the question how far along are we in terms of having relevant patient population to release Interim Mono data? I know that Mono enrollment stalled out because all resources were put into completing Combo enrollment. So once again how many do we have enrolled and what is the impact of the increased standard dosage to 525ml. Obviously there is much riding on the Interim readout. If its not strong enough to convince the FDA to convert from investigational to a P3 Pivotal we will be stuck with a valuation based on Combo therapy. If it’s strong and we get the green light from the FDA to convert to the Pivotal Trial BP has to think seriously about making a play.
Integrity is all we have at the end of the day. I owe it to the long term shareholders on this board to disclose information regardless of its content that can add clarity to the status of this investment.
Nader’s email contained information that came from his heart and confirmed his commitment and confidence to develop and monetize Pro-140.
It seems clear that they realized the risk of a R/S with the current SP and available near term PR’s the only prudent thing to do was to cancel the play. The only thing that pisses me off is announcing the R/S a month prior without thinking through the scenario that has come to fruition. Either very poor judgement or something came up that we don’t know about.
On the positive nothing has changed with the science and I do believe they are going to have strong Mono Interim to the level that the investigation trial will be converted to a Pivotal P3 by the FDA. That is the catalyst that has huge upside - my question is how far down the road are we with the Mono Investigational in terms of releasing Interim Data?
FWIW
-----Original Message----- From: Nader Pourhassan
Sent: Tuesday, April 10, 2018 12:38 PM
To: Nader Pourhassan
Subject: FW: Sorry for my emails and frustration.
FYI
-----Original Message-----
From: Nader Pourhassan
Sent: Tuesday, April 10, 2018 12:29 PM
To: 'Francis Russo' <francis.g.russo@gmail.com>; cdockery@alphaadvisorsusa.com; Michael Mulholland <mmulholland@cytodyn.com>
Subject: RE: Sorry for my emails and frustration.
Dear Francis:
I appreciate your investments in the past and I know you trusted our story that we told you and invested in CYDY.
In the last 4 years we overcame obstacles with the FDA that Progenic was not able to do so and had given up on PRO 140.
We resurrected a product that everyone pass on it (i.e. Gilead, ViiV, etc.) and in doing so we did not have the benefit of hundreds of scientist and brilliant minds as Progenic did.
We then proved to the scientific community that there is a place for PRO 140 in today's HIV space and we can get to the final approval of PRO 140 much faster than anyone thought they could (at Progenics).
We then explored other indications for PRO 140 and we were excited to see there are multiple potential for PRO 140 and our animal studies as Dr. Burger reported was stunning.
Now as an OTCB company we can't just expect to sell over 200 million shares and not have pressure on our stock. Furthermore, the path to NASDAQ has been considers several times in the past and we changed our mind due to the conditions not being favorable (in our assessment).
The good news is we have a drug that every scientist now agrees that this is approval drug (i.e. Dr. Schooley, Dr. Hammer, Dr. Maddon, see our press release with their quotes).
PRO 140 is close to the finish line and the potential for PRO 140 (market size) is in our opinion very large (in billions) and we are now trying to prove this to everyone. We were able to prove to the FDA that combination therapy is very suitable for PRO 140 and we can hit our primary endpoint and we did that. We also told the FDA 4 years ago that Monotherapy should be considered and after two years of data, the FDA agreed to give us Phase 3 investigative trial and the next step is pivotal Phase 3 providing the FDA likes the current data and we expect they will.
We also formed a community advisory board among top HIV activists and won their support.
So can we sell PRO 140 to many HIV patients starting 2019? The answer in my opinion with BTD, DEFINELTY YES.
So I am truly sorry that our stock is taking a beating but I believe we are destined to get this drug approved and that means every investor could be very happy with us and we ask for your continuous patience in these crucial times. We are fighting many battles and need all our past investors to help us now more than ever with just being fortitude so we can make you all proud of your investment.
With best regards,
Nader
Nader Pourhassan, PhD
President & CEO
CytoDyn Inc. (www.cytodyn.com)
1111 Main Street, Suite 660
Vancouver, Washington 98660
(360)980-8524 Ext. 1 - Work
(360)980-8549 - Fax
(503)348-4173-Cell
CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE. This e-mail transmission and any documents, files, or previous e-mail messages appended or attached to it may contain information that is confidential or legally privileged. If you are not the intended recipient, or a person responsible for delivering it to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that you must not read this transmission and that any disclosure, copying, printing, distribution, or use of the information contained or attached to this transmission is STRICTLY PROHIBITED. If you have received this transmission in error, please immediately notify the sender by telephone 503-348-4173 or return e-mail message (npourhassan@cytodyn.com) and delete the original transmission, its attachments, and any copies without reading or saving in any manner. Thank you.
-----Original Message-----
From: Francis Russo [mailto:francis.g.russo@gmail.com]
Sent: Tuesday, April 10, 2018 12:10 PM
To: Nader Pourhassan <npourhassan@cytodyn.com>; cdockery@alphaadvisorsusa.com; Michael Mulholland <mmulholland@cytodyn.com>
Cc: Francis Russo <francis.g.russo@gmail.com>
Subject: Sorry for my emails and frustration.
Guys,
I sincerely wanted to apologize as I’m just a frustrated shareholder. Again I’m sorry for my emails and negative tone. In the end we share the same goal of being able to help mankind. It would be nice to see some fruits for all of the time and energy all have put into the company.
Good luck and have a good day.
Sincerely,
Personally I think the SP is tied to the Paulson raises at .50 shares with matching warrants. The shares are dumped and the no risk warrants wait for the pay day. Zero risk. It’s simple math. The Paulson raises have kept the lights on but at great cost which is reflected in the current SP.
The question is what news is the company going to release pre and post R/S to get the SP moving forward? Hard to believe Tony C and his team would not have their ducks lined up.
Spot on BL. Mono Interim is the catalyst that could be the game changer to make the R/S genius.
I don’t know Bucky. I have to think they are skirting the 70% efficacy line. But hey maybe they are killing it at over 80% and you are not being over exuberant.
I hear you. Fatigue. It just gets to the point that for things to change the company has to change. We have no choice, we have to get off the OTC and uplist to the Nasdaq. Here we go. Buckle up.
Many great points Gestalt. Hindsight is 20/20 and yes management has been dead wrong on being able to move the SP organically. The Paulson raises backed with warrants have held the SP in check because of the obvious fundamentals. They know they have to uplist hence the dreaded R/S. My opinion is let’s get on with it and either sink or swim. No more dicking around on the OTC and raising $ w Paulson.
Maybe Mono Interim is PR’d the end of April, maybe May. My point is we need a major PR to provide support after the R/S. One could argue we need a major PR just prior to the split to give shareholders a stronger ratio. Obviously we would all hope for 1:5 rather than 1:10 or 15. At the end of the day the question is are we to be taken seriously as a single agent or are we going to seek our pay day in the Combo space. I think Mono Interim is going to go a long ways towards answering that question.
Yes Bucky that is encouraging. This is a bigger study and I have to believe dosage was increased because they weren’t seeing the efficacy levels they wanted. 70% is the magic number - 65% doesn’t cut it.
Agreed Gestalt. However the brakes were put on Mono enrollment because of limited resources needing to be allocated to Combo enrollment. I think Mono Interim will be PR’d with 200 patients in May and they will then hopefully have strong enough data to convince the FDA to move the trial from investigational to a Pivotal P3. The strength of our investment rides on Mono Interim. The data should provide clarity as to the likelihood of Pro-140 as a viable stand alone therapy. That will be the fork in the road. Obviously there are many factors that make this far from a black and white event, however convincing 70% efficacy within the entire study at the 525ml dosage will create much more urgency for BP to move. I think the R/S and uplist is timed to utilize this event to catapult the SP for a major raise.
AIMHO
I know you have a lot and as long as your 75’s aren’t going to expire sit tight. But hey if you’ve got the feeling this is a sure bet then by all means help the company out and go all in.
My advice is sit tight with your .75’s. If this is a home run the .25 your saving will mean very little. Not worth the risk IMO.
All it means is that I am able to spend .50 instead of 1.35 to convert my warrants to shares. Without the tender offer this particular set of warrants were bound to the 1.35 price. I have .75 warrants that I am not taking advantage of the TO because the spread between the exercise price of .75 and tender offer of .50 is not worth it to me. If the SP skyrockets all I have lost by not taking advantage of the TO is .25 per share. On the 1.35’s the difference is much greater at .85. I hope I have made sense.
I think they will extend again because they would like to clean up as many warrants as possible. My gut said I would regret not taking advantage of the opportunity to convert my warrants priced at 1.35 so why wait and run the risk of getting locked out. The way I see it the R/S is going to be a positive and we will finally get some traction. So glad to say goodbye to the OTC. It’s been a drain. Best of luck Luv.
I converted my 1.35’s today.
That’s not true Broker. Not saying I know for sure but I think you can look for Mono Interim Data to be the Post uplist PR mover. They should have enough data since moving standard dosage from 375ml to 525ml. I understand your lack of confidence because this stock has been stuck for a long time. The uplist is an attempt to change the pattern. This not a naked uplist.
Thx Tonysd57. We would all like to know more about the details from management. The reality is Tony’s strong suit is not hand holding. He’s in it to advance the trials and maximize ROI. With his run with Gilead he was part of the team that took them from small to big. This is not uncharted waters. He’s been there. He can’t get it done on the OTC.
Agree with you Chump.
Also 500k volume moving the SP down 4 cents is no big sell off IMO. I’ve got some $1.35 warrants and I’m taking advantage of the .50 TO.
GLTA