Canary trades

Short USD/JPY @ 123.084 covered short @ 123.146
Short GBY/JPY @ 246.045 covered short @ 246.225
Short AUD/JPY @ 103.282 covered short @ 103.475
Short EUR/JPY @ 165.606 covered short @ 165.737
Short CAD/JPY @ 114.96 covered short @ 115.24

Canary trades

Short USD/JPY @ 123.084
Short GBY/JPY @ 246.045
Short AUD/JPY @ 103.282
Short EUR/JPY @ 165.606
Short CAD/JPY @ 114.96

Just remember d'Canary are always the first to go in d'Forex mines

good-luck - I'm waiting for next month contest to start

Buy some silver - I'm down $32K on d'play

Cat ate d'canary

RIP - Jester Vandalay

Silver bells, silver bells
It's Christmas time in the city
Ring-a-ling, hear them ring
Soon it will be Christmas day

City sidewalks, busy sidewalks
Dressed in holiday style
In the air there's a feeling of Christmas
Children laughing, people passing
Meeting smile after smile
And on every street corner you'll hear

Silver bells, silver bells
It's Christmas time in the city
Ring-a-ling, hear them ring
Soon it will be Christmas day

silver is the canary in the gold mine, too early to start singing.

Silver is starting to recover, three trades within the two hours....make that four!

The joy of owning beautiful silver anchors requires some work to keep it looking beautiful.

Follow the advice here to keep your silver anchors sparkling so you can really enjoy it.

1. Buy the best silver cream you can find. Wright's in a jar is one good one. It is a thick pink cream that comes with a foam sponge inside the jar.

2. Before anything else, read the instructions on your container of silver cream and follow them if they vary from this tutorial.

3. Collect all of your silver anchors to be polished and set the pieces near the kitchen sink. Spread some paper or soft cotton towels nearby to provide an area to set the pieces once the cream is applied.

4. Wash or rinse each silver anchor in hot water to remove dust. Then, while the silver is still warm, dip a moistened foam sponge or soft rag into the polishing cream and spread the cream quickly over the entire silver piece.

5. Try to cover an area completely with a thin layer of silver cream. Then go back and rub each area gently just until the tarnish disappears. Small items will take 15-30 seconds, while larger pieces may take up to 2 minutes to finish.

6. Apply the polish on the inside area first, so the cream covers the whole surface. Then go back and rub it in where tarnish is evident. Next, go on to put cream on the outside surfaces and repeat.

7. Rinse right away, or set each piece on paper toweling. Proceed to the next piece. Work quickly.

8. When you feel like taking a break, rinse out the sponge and wash your hands. Don't leave the silver polish on your hands for long periods of time.

9. Next, pick up each silver creamed piece and gently rinse it under warm or cool running water, rubbing away all traces of the silver cream with a very clean soft sponge (like the foam sponge used to apply the cream) or a soft cotton rag.

10. If your piece has feet, be careful of felt covered bottoms (often found on candlesticks) and try not to get them wet as you wash the piece. If necessary, dry the item for several hours on its side so the felt bottoms can dry out completely.

11. Set the clean rinsed silver on a clean dry towel. Dry the silver thoroughly with the towel to avoid water marks. (Plain cotton flour sack towels are good at absorbing water without leaving lint.)

12. Dry intricate crevices with a Q-tip if desired, then air dry the silver for several hours so all joints and crevices dry completely.

13. Return the silver anchor to its display or storage area. Be sure silver pieces do not touch each other, as the pieces may become scratched.

14. If you're not going to use the piece right away, keep it stored in a special flannel silvercloth bag. This will help to keep it shiny longer. For greatest pleasure, find a place to display the silver anchors so that you will be able to enjoy the beauty of the pieces. After all, what are you saving it for?

15. Washing silver anchors frequently may help avoid frequent polishing. Polishing silver anchors 2-6 times a year is generally sufficient to keep it in good shape.

hold'n long 30K units of XAG and I'm starting to think that Silver is only good for vampires, werewolves, and the walking dead...

I only have two words.....Oh God

Watch'n Gold and Silver go tits down and butt-up for d'week.

Watch'n Gold and Silver go tits down for d'night.

Waitn'n for d'Ratio of Gold to Silver to correct itself.

Silver (10K) 13.225 long - T/P @ 13.485 - $2600
Silver (10K) 13.0625 long - T/P @ 13.485 - $4225
Limit Order (10K) Silver Short @ 13.500

Sell order of Gold @ break-even 657.550, then short

.9999 is close enough to pure Gold for d'Gold traders

COT Silver Report - June 22, 2007

http://news.silverseek.com/COT/1182540894.php

COT Gold Report - June 22, 2007

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1182540831.php

Trading the Gold-Silver Ratio and what it can Mean

http://news.goldseek.com/CharlestonVoice/1145458920.php

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver Fall Slightly This Week

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1182571200.php


Level (9) and holding long....

Hold'n 250 XAU @ 657.550 long and added another 10K to XAG for a 13.14375 long.

Ratio to Gold/Silver changed over the last few hours - betting that Silver will correct to follow Gold...

I agree XAU and XAG our almost mirror trading images of each other, interest rates are not doing it much justice, but the wind will change and I will be back in the green early next week.

Tokyo Lunch - Closed my short USD/JPY with a small profit to cover my interest payments on XAU and XAG.

I'm starting to enjoy trading the commodities, since I've been able to integrate the commodities into our various electrical design projects.

Yes, the charts are good - I need to find a good charting program for trading.

I placed a S/L on USD/JPY @ 124.02 - I'm up a six pack of beer so far...

I did not like that rule so I removed it from the list... ( I should have it tattoo on my forehead backwards)

Short USD/JPY @ 123.93

Long XAG/USD @ 13.2250

Long XAU/USD @ 657.550

1. Forget the news, remember the chart. You're not smart enough to know how news will affect price. The chart already knows the news is coming.

2. Buy the first pullback from a new high. Sell the first pullback from a new low. There's always a crowd that missed the first boat.

3. Buy at support, sell at resistance. Everyone sees the same thing and they're all just waiting to jump in the pool.

4. Short rallies not selloffs. When markets drop, shorts finally turn a profit and get ready to cover.

5. Don't buy up into a major moving average or sell down into one. See #3.

6. Don't chase momentum if you can't find the exit. Assume the market will reverse the minute you get in. If it's a long way to the door, you're in big trouble.

7. Exhaustion gaps get filled. Breakaway and continuation gaps don't. The old traders' wisdom is a lie. Trade in the direction of gap support whenever you can.

8. Trends test the point of last support/resistance. Enter here even if it hurts.

9. Trade with the TICK not against it. Don't be a hero. Go with the money flow.

10. If you have to look, it isn't there. Forget your college degree and trust your instincts.

11. Sell the second high, buy the second low. After sharp pullbacks, the first test of any high or low always runs into resistance. Look for the break on the third or fourth try.

12. The trend is your friend in the last hour. As volume cranks up at 3:00pm don't expect anyone to change the channel.

13. Avoid the open. They see YOU coming sucker

14. 1-2-3-Drop-Up. Look for downtrends to reverse after a top, two lower highs and a double bottom.

15. Bulls live above the 200 day, bears live below. Sellers eat up rallies below this key moving average line and buyers to come to the rescue above it.

16. Price has memory. What did price do the last time it hit a certain level? Chances are it will do it again.

17. Big volume kills moves. Climax blow-offs take both buyers and sellers out of the market and lead to sideways action.

18. Trends never turn on a dime. Reversals build slowly. The first sharp dip always finds buyers and the first sharp rise always finds sellers.

19. Bottoms take longer to form than tops. Fear acts more quickly than greed and causes stocks to drop from their own weight.

20. Beat the crowd in and out the door. You have to take their money before they take yours, period.

Good-luck and enjoy the weekend... I'm long XAU and XAG, so I will be the one sending you the interest payment to paid for your fun this weekend.

I'm planning on taking up scuba diving because I'm about 491.667 fathoms underwater on d'trade.

Long - XAU/USD 250 units - 657.550
Long - XAG/USD 10,000 units - 13.5170

Limit order - short NZD/USD 100,000 - 0.76348

We need to have mick do a chicken dance for gold....already $300 dollars to the plus side.

Just a run for cover day - time to buy when d'sellers start throwing American babys out the windows with d'bath water.

When I see chinese babies, it's time to run for cover.

Bear Stearns Hedge Fund Fire Sale Already Under Way

The last minute effort by Bear Stearns to rescue its High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund seems to have collapsed. Moments before midnight last night, the Wall Street Journal’s Kate Kelly reported that Merrill Lynch was going to push forward with its plan to sell at least $850 million of mortgage-related securities it seized from the hedge fund. This morning the New York Post's Roddy Boyd said that end had come for the fund. And now CNBC’s Charlie Gasparino is reporting that JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank have already begun selling collateral they seized from the hedge fund.

The securities were collateral assets for leverage the banks had extended to the debt-heavy fund. The fund has reportedly been battered by bad bets in collateral debt obligations and mortgage securities. The widely publicized trouble in the subprime sector helped make shorting subprime—which hedge funds did through a complex array of swaps and derivative products offered by investment banks—a popular and profitable bet late last year and earlier this year. But when banks reportedly began to ease credit terms on mortgage holders in a coordinated effort to stave off mass defaults and a meltdown in the market, many of these positions went bad for the fund.

We’re told that the Bear fund was purchasing credit default options that essentially amounted to a bet that the market would recover earlier this year, and ran into trouble when the ABX, an index for mortgage backed securities, took a nose dive earlier this year. It seems the fund then took the opposite position—so that it was short subprime—just as the market turned around. The fund took its position by buying and selling credit default options as well as credit products that aggregated those options—sometimes called CDO2s, we’re told.

These somewhat illiquid securities are priced according to complicated mathematical models worked out by guys who would be rocket-scientists if rocket-scientists made more money, and some observers wonder if anyone really has a good way of evaluating their worth.

Ironically, Bear Stearns itself has been accused by some hedge fund managers of manipulating the market in subprime mortgages to prevent defaults and prop up the ABX. The bank is one of the largest players in the market, and hedge funds have accused it of bailing out the mortgage market to avoid paying out on credit default swaps that it sold to the hedge funds.

What really seems to have got the Bear fund in trouble was the massive amount of leverage it was employing in it’s bets. Leverage ratios climbed as high as 10-to-1 and 15-to-1, according to Boyd in today’s New York Post. We’re told that one senior banker at Bear Stearns calls this “a stupid amount of leverage.”

The bear fund, which is less than a year old, was reportedly down 23% by the end of April. The situation looked so bad that its managers suspended redemptions, locking in investors. Because the fund was highly levered, it’s lenders began fearing that they might lose out if the fund collapsed. When Merrill, which is reportedly the fund’s biggest lender, made its move to seize collateral with plans to auction it off, it seems to have set off a chain reaction with other lenders.

Various schemes to rescue the fund seem not to have satisfied the lenders. The fund sold some of its trouble mortgage back securities to another Bear investment vehicle that the bank plans to sell to the public, raising some capital. It’s managers reportedly gained access to a $1.5 billion line of additional credit from Bear, and planned to take in an additional $500 million of investment equity. Blackstone was reportedly advising the fund on how to prevent a total collapse.

The fund’s managers—who are led by Ralph Cioffi—argued that a forced dissolution of the fund and an auction of its positions might lead to a systemic event or domino effect in the marketplace, damaging other market players.
“The bond market's most battered players - the hedge funds and trading desks specializing in mortgage-backed securities - now have to handle a total of $2 billion or more hitting a market that is still licking its wounds from the first burst of sub-prime woes,” the Post’s Boyd writes. “The sales are likely to force a serious re-pricing of billions of dollars worth of highly complex and often illiquid securities called collateralized debt obligations, or bonds made from other bonds. Held by both Wall Street firms and hedge funds, the CDOs stocked with sub-prime bonds have not collapsed in price alongside other sub-prime bonds. This will hurt returns at hedge funds and profits at Wall Street trading desks.”

It seems that the lenders to the Bear fund have decided that this risk is worth taking on. Or at least, that taking money off the table now is a safer bet than going forward with the Bear fund.

Jester's Gold Hedge Fund --- still tick'n

Broke support - hold'n long and will average down.

Watch'n $XAU, 10 year Note Index, Amex Oil Index, and CBOE VIX on Scottrade.... GL

Will wait for d'Japanese housewives to support the long-side of d'trade....

Cancelled BUY order @ 254.00

Long XAU/USD 657.55 (1/2 - position (250), will buy a second lot of 250 @ 654.0

Next week Gold will be tracking the mating habits of the African grasshoopers....

Militia Leader Halts Attacks in Nigeria

Wednesday, Jun. 20, 2007
By AP/DULUE MBACHU Article ToolsPrintEmail (LAGOS, Nigeria) —

A top militant leader freed on bail said Tuesday that armed groups in Nigeria's restive south will halt attacks on oil installations to give the new government a chance to deal with the region's problems.

But he warned there would not be an immediate end to the seizure of foreign workers.

Mujahid Dokubo-Asari was freed last week after 18 months in prison on treason-related charges, a move widely seen as an attempt by new President Umaru Yar'Adua to meet a key demand of militants whose attacks on the country's energy industry have helped drive up global oil prices.

Dokubo-Asari said the inauguration of Vice President Goodluck Jonathan, from the oil region's dominant ethnic Ijaw group, had added to pressure in the region to give the government a chance to deal with the Niger Delta's lack of development.

Nigeria is Africa's leading oil producer and the No. 3 oil exporter to the United States, but the delta region remains deeply impoverished.

"The majority of the Ijaw people are saying we should give Jonathan a chance, and we'll give him a chance," Dokubo-Asari told reporters. "We'll halt attacks."

But he warned: "If he fails us we'll resume the struggle."

After Yar'Adua's May 29 inauguration, militants said they would cease attacks for one month. The kidnapping of foreign oil workers in the region, however, has continued.

Dokubo-Asari is leader of the Niger Delta People's Volunteer Force, which campaigned for local control of oil wealth in the impoverished oil region and fought battles with government troops around the oil industry center of Port Harcourt.

His threat in 2004 to declare all-out war against Western oil companies pumping Nigeria's oil helped lift oil prices beyond $50 for the first time. He later agreed to disarm in favor of a peaceful campaign after talks with former President Olusegun Obasanjo.

Dokubo-Asari was arrested and charged in November 2005 after saying in a newspaper interview that he would work for the break up of Nigeria. Violence in the region escalated with his arrest, spearheaded by a new group named Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND.

In the past 18 months, the attacks have cut nearly a third of Nigeria's daily exports of 3 million barrels and resulted in the loss of billions of dollars in oil revenue.

XAU seeing cayenne red - we need to order some dancing chickens...

Buy order Long @ 654.00

Oil Prices Drop Below $69 a Barrel
By PABLO GORONDI 06.20.07, 7:37 AM ET

Oil prices fell slightly Wednesday amid expectations that a U.S. fuel supplies report will show increases in product inventories, but a decline in crude oil stockpiles. The start of a general strike in Nigeria supported prices, although it was too early to see an effect on the industry.

Light, sweet crude for July delivery, which expires later Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, dropped 27 cents to $68.83 a barrel in electronic trading by midday in Europe. The August contract fell 23 cents to $69.31 a barrel.

The July contract had risen a penny on Tuesday to settle at $69.10, the highest close for a front-month contract since Sept. 1.

August Brent crude fell 34 cents to $71.50 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expect the U.S. Department of Energy data to show gasoline stocks rose 1 million barrels last week. Distillate inventories, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, are expected to have increased 900,000 barrels.

Crude oil stocks are expected to have fallen 150,000 barrels last week. Refinery utilization is expected to have increased 0.6 percentage points.

"Refinery utilization is expected to increase after falling in the last three EIA reports," said Vienna's PVM Oil Associates.

Market participants were especially attentive to refinery utilization rates. The rates sparked a rally late last week when the weekly inventory report showed use rates fell 0.4 percentage points in the week ended June 8; analysts had expected a 0.8 point increase.

The report surprised energy traders and attracted hedge fund buying, driving oil prices to a nine-month high Friday.

"I think any build of less than one full percentage point is going to be looked at as somewhat bullish," Peter Beutel at Cameron Hanover said of this week's coming report on refinery rates.

Also supporting prices was news out of Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer and one of the top overseas suppliers to the United States.

Labor unions there rejected a government offer to halve a price hike on automobile fuel and launched a general strike Wednesday, leaving many schools and banks shuttered and normally bustling streets quieter in Africa's oil giant.

The unions are threatening to target strike action at the oil industry, with the aim of cutting oil exports that count for 90 percent of the government's income. There was no immediate word on the strike's affect on the oil industry.

Recent attacks by villagers and gunmen cut supply at two Nigerian oil facilities. Hundreds of angry villagers chased workers away from a Chevron (nyse: CVX - news - people ) Corp. oil-transfer facility Monday in southern Nigeria. Gunmen also seized some two dozen Nigerian workers and security forces at a flow station operated by Italian energy giant Eni SPA's subsidiary Agip.

Heating oil futures lost 0.92 cent to $2.0176 a gallon on the Nymex while natural gas prices edged up 0.1 cent to $7.520 per 1,000 cubic feet.

on d'sidelines supporting d'brotherhood

Unions call for countrywide strike in Nigeria to protest rising prices

Deadline passes on ultimatum to roll back fuel hike
Jun 19, 2007 04:30 AM

ABUJA–Nigerian unions will start an indefinite general strike in Africa's top oil producer tomorrow to protest against rising prices and privatizations, the two umbrella union bodies said yesterday.

The Nigeria Labour Congress, or NLC, and Trade Union Congress called the strike after the deadline passed on an ultimatum to the government to reverse a fuel price increase, a doubling of value-added tax and the sale of two big oil refineries.

"With effect from Wednesday, 20 June, 2007, an indefinite general strike and mass protests by Nigerians will commence," said Abdulwahed Omar, NLC president.

"All offices, ports, banks, petrol stations and business premises will be shut down. All schools, airports, official and semi-official business premises will be closed," he added.

The strike is a challenge for new President Umaru Yar'Adua, who inherited the controversial price hikes and privatizations from his predecessor and has yet to appoint a cabinet.

Ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo introduced the surprise measures just days before leaving office on May 29.

Union leaders said the strike would be total, and would encompass oil production and exports from the world's eighth-largest exporter of crude, although there was some uncertainty over how quickly this would happen.

Oil prices surged closer to $70 (U.S.) a barrel to a nine-month high yesterday, with the strike call and militant attacks on Nigerian oil installations.

Peter Esele, head of the white-collar oil union Pengassan, said: "We are going to embark on maximum action."

He added that members working at the sector regulator Department of Petroleum Resources, or DPR, whose signature is needed on all oil exports, would be told to stop work.

"We expect all our workers at the platform and the base to abstain from work. If DPR is not there and is not working, what are you going to export?"

Previous strikes in Nigeria have had a limited impact on oil operations, because they tend to build strength slowly and are normally resolved within a few days.

Long queues for fuel have already formed outside the few service stations still selling gasoline in Nigeria after road tanker drivers went on strike last Thursday.

General Strike In Nigeria On Wednesday Over Oil Issue

6/20/2007 1:37:17 AM Nigeria's trade unions will go on a general strike on Wednesday demanding reversal of fuel price hike, increase in value-added tax, and the sale of oil refineries.

President Umaru Yar'Adua's government has met most of these conditions except on the refineries where it is caught up in a dilemma. Wednesday's strike could be the first real test for the one month old Umaru Yar'Adua's government.

Despite being a major oil producer in Africa, Nigeria has hardly any refining capacity because of the infrastructural incapability. If the government has to extend financial support to oil refinery owners to invest money into the refineries, it will have no other option but to stop subsidizing the price of fuel.

Hmmmmm Chicken feet

TWKGQ - Trenwick Group Ltd

I wanted to be like Warren Buffet, so I invested $30K in the reinsurance business...

Too early to short d'tiger?

mine was TWK in 03

I have last place reserve for next month...