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AMZN is down almost $65 today. What is causing QQQ to go up in AH
which means the end of the stock market bull run. Amen
The initial target for this correction is 2958. We might get there by wednesday or sooner on an intraday basis. I am also thinking we might reach the 3% level at 2927. This could happen next week as well. Then the fed cuts causing a new high in the range of 3030 - 3040. Not much higher than the present high.
Once that euphoria wears off by August 15 -23, we should start the long over due 10 - 15 % correction. Still believe that sub 2600 is possible this year.
Looks like the viagara effect just wore off. Q's just turned red.
I can see a 3% correction setting up now. Then a rally to new highs completing in the middle of august, possibly 3030 - 3040 in the spx and 8030 to 8040 in the NQ. Then, atleast a 10% correction from there starting in mid to late august and lasting into the end of september.
Support area 2650 - 2700, approximately 7000 for the NQ
Let us see if this pans out. Holding 90 % qqq short at 192.55 and 10% at about 181.
In light of the recent job #'s, I dont see a rate cut in July or august. However, two rate cuts this year are already priced into the market. If the cuts dont come. That could trigger the selloff to 2650.
I think the doom and gloom scenario that was supposed to happen was orchestrated to sucker in shorts and take their money. Reality is saying that the government has the power to do anything it wishes (such as keeping stocks moving up)
The entire corporate wealth and compensation is tied to the stock market.
Seems like they will keep the markets moving up. No sense in entering short positions.
Have been down with allergies and flu related stuff. Probably viral. Would not wish it on anyone. Pretty crappy week last week. Just getting around to normal.
I had a limit order to short the Q's at 190 but chickened out at the last minute and cancelled. Looking back it would be god for a quick two points. This market seems to defy gravity. Each time I think a major top is in place, there is a new high (such as last week). Might as well toss out TA and just throw darts.
We were supposed to be in a recession by end of 2018, then it was moved to end of 2019 and now the consensus us 2020. Trump will do whatever it takes to keep things moving to get elected and I believe he will get elected. With him having nothing to gain after the next election win. The year for the recession IMHO is 2021. We can expect the spx to reach 3400 in the next 12 months or sooner. I don't see oil going above 70 for a few years unless there is a war with iran to force the price up.
I dont believe the Q's will maKE a new high tomorrow
I am Still waiting to pull the trigger shorting qqq. So far patience has paid off.
Xi might just tell trump to stuff it. As in the opening scene of Godfather II.
El Presidente, you can have my answer now. My offer is this "nothing" and I would appreciate it if the US taxpayer put up the cash for the tarriffs.
If the market gets what it wants, why will it drop.
Apple has no contribution to the US economy. Just to the stock indices. But wait, that is our economy. SMH.
Let it go to hell.
No rate cut but the fed says it will act “as appropriate to sustain the expansion.”
Market should start to tank in the next two to three days.
according to the video, it should start a new bull market, based on past history. But, past is no a guarantee for the future. The establishment wants everyone believing in the bull market and wants to cultivate buy the dip mentality, until they have everyone hooked and pull the rug from under them.
Although it is too early. I believe the market is developing a pattern similar to that from early oct to the end of november. Then came the december crash. If that is the case then we have initiated the 3rd of 4 legs (5th being the big corrective move). The 3rd leg should complete by the end of next week or sooner and the 4th leg which will be the up move to about 2900 should complete by July 5th. The support area is 2720 for this leg down. A close above the 50 ma, during this leg, may void or delay this outcome.
Interesting that you mention VIX. By my count the vix is getting ready for a big move up, probably above 40 bye August.
It looks as if the Q's are consolidating to make another crack above the 50 ma and possibly 185
Markets are a little out of sync. RUT and nq100 still out of the BZ as best as I can tell, although not by much. SPX should reverse tomorrow.
With market futures trading within 3% of all time highs, I don't see a rate cut this month. Techs and Russell lagging behind is a definite recipe for a pull back.
U.S. Mexico trade deal reached. One less reason to cut rates.
Historically the markets have sold off a few months after a yield curve inversion. This time should be no different. sentiment is very bullish. Kinda like before a major selloff.
Glad I stuck to the 10% strategy on shorting the Q's at 177.5
"Market forgets that if the fed lowers rates at start of recession, it doesn't help at all." This is very true.
We also need to remember that the market has been in a strong uptrend thru all the rate hikes in the past three years or so. So now a rate cut in the dawning of a recession does not mean the markets will continue to go up. Job numbers not meeting expectations = bad times ahead = economy starting to fail.
The strong rise in the price of gold is a telling sign of a rotation.
Im betting this short term bounce is over. Shorted 200 qqq, let us see how it turns out.
Volume on the Q's is very low. I don't see 180 (but you never know). Have reduced my order to sell short at 177.5 to 1/10 of what was originally planned.
The Q's sold off at major resistance this morning. The spx is nearing the 2835 zone. But did break above the down trend channel. The down trend resumes Friday or Monday.
The fed has talked about being accommodative. But only talk so far.
There could be bad news come tomorrow in the AH or on Thursday and the down trend resumes. Pump n Dump.
We are near the upper end of the down trending channel. Most indices will hit this tomorrow. NDX has a little bit more room to run than others before it hits the down trend line. The Q's could hit 177 this week before reversing. I am thinking this is a DCB. Putting in a sell short limit order for 25% of the allocated amount at 177.
If the recent high was a top. Then this top is looking like the one back in 2008. We can expect the month of june to trade between 2700 to 2840 followed by a decline in the month of july into early august. In 2008 the decline from the top was about 60%.
The Q's have held the 200 ma so far today. Also, if the bears can take the spx below 2400 on a closing basis in the next month. This uptrend is over.
DB came within .03 of cracking the 6 euro floor.
Not being greedy. Covered my short in the Q's at 174 as well this morning for a nice 12 point gain. Was tempted to reshort at 175.2, but decided against it. Gap up Monday is not out of the question and have been burnt before. Market is oversold and a move to 2815 is not out of the question. Will enter short again if the opportunity presents itself.
Futures tonight have taken out yesterday's low on the spx. 2720 is beginning to look like a likely scenario for next week. The 10 yr support line of the uptrend is currently sitting at about 2400. Would love to see that taken out this summer and turned into resistance.
While all indices are below the 200 ma. The Q's have not violated the 200 ma. Still holding short from 187. Am tempted to cover it but also thinking that we could get it to about 174.
Spx likely to test the 2720 area. Oil is bearish and will go below 50 this year.
DB could crack $ 7 tomorrow. Currently at 6.3 euros. Below 6 euros will set off a selling frenzy. Taking it to junk.
According to this video, lets get ready for spx 4K. It is discounting the fact that each time the market crashed the ppt jumped in to crank it back up. Thus throwing fundamentals and technical analysis out the door.
Short interest is at a low level. This in itself is bearish.
Yahoo used to have a section for each security, where they would list the short interest. Now they don't.
Looking at the 10 year chart. SPX 1200 takes us all the way back to jan 2012. The rally that started right about that time found strong support at the 200 MA in jan 2016 and then again last year in December. The 200 Ma currently sits at 2422. The initial support for the SPX is at 2775 (50 ma). If this is breached to the downside and becomes resistance on successive attempts, then we go down to 2422. This could take the rest of the summer to unfold.
what are your targets and time frame for QQQ and spx. I did not establish any new short positions in qqq or otherwise. Just what I shorted last week.
Great call so far.