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Gordondale........................................IAG... the best is yet to come. I know this may upset negative people but it's true none the less.
The Jack, did you have "MAGS" thru the run?
Alright Bobbe,
Glad you're still in.
Your're welcome, Let's go!
Compare post 546 with 577... maybe just maybe we've got the pulse of this company.
To all the San Telmo longs... Have a great weekend!
Just in...
In This Issue:
The Phantom Trader Weekly update
Market Insights…Special Situations…Traders Network
Ø ST
Ø The Hubbert Peak
Ø Take The Money And Run
Dear Reader,
Last week I mentioned that San Telmo Energy (STUOF: OTCBB, $0.78) was a screaming buy. Shares are already up 15% since then, but it’s not too late.
The company just raised another $2.8 million. Among other things, the money will be used to tie in production at Tepee Creek, and to drill up to 6 additional wells over the coming months.
It’s been a long time coming, but the company is now a producer. And granted, there have been some delays and problems related to getting production tied in, but issues are minor in relation to he opportunity ST presents at current price levels.
By year end the company should be producing around 2,000 boed. And beyond that, I firmly believe we’ll see the 3,000 barrel mark early next year.
Buy San Telmo at current levels for quick gains, and long-term growth.
For portfolio purposes, I’ll treat this position as separate from our initial ST position.
*****
It’s hard not to pay attention to the price of oil these days.
Especially if you own a gas-thirsty SUV, you’ve been taking a noticeable hit at the pump. $40 oil, and the resultant $2 gas, is a first for this country. Yet there may be a time when we look upon these prices as the good ole’ days.
That’s because we could see $50 oil before long. And it’s not out of the question to talk about $75 oil. There’s a good case to be made that world production is nearing its peak.
Many of the massive Saudi oilfields are said to be near their peak. Named after the late Dr. M. King Hubbert, the “Hubbert Peak” is simply a theory or method for determining when a particular field, or the world, reaches peak production. In fact, it can be applied to just about any relevant system.
There are basic laws that define any finite resource:
• Production starts at zero
• Production rises to a peak which cannot be surpassed
• Once the peak has been reached, production declines—often rapidly—until the resource is depleted
Once the peak is reached, half the recoverable oil has been consumed.
Of course, the implications for a peak in world production are staggering. When that point is reached, the era of cheap oil will be long gone.
I’ll go into this topic in more depth in the coming weeks. But one thing is clear: As we reach the Hubbert Peak, there will be tremendous opportunity not only in the oil and gas sector, but resultant and developing energy sectors, such as fuel cells and unconventional energy sources.
Keep that in mind next time you shell out $2.40 a gallon to fill up the Hummer.
*****
It was June of last year when I first brought DHB to your attention. Since then, we’ve enjoyed gains of more than 125%. Not bad at all, especially considering the choppy market conditions of the past several weeks.
The way I see it, we should take some money off the table now. This way we’re guaranteed to have some ammo ready for new and developing situations.
Let me stress that there’s nothing fundamentally wrong with the company. I think their future is bright. Especially considering the fact that US troops are likely to be in Iraq, Afghanistan, and scores of other hellholes for a long, long time.
That alone should be enough to drive DHB’s growth.
Regardless, let’s take our profits and run. I’ll have some new ideas on how and where to deploy that capital in the next week.
Sell DHB.
Until then,
PT
Thanks Tom, I've got EAG on radar...
One more...
Wait until new production is announced. Yes it is a problem as to compression but I would LOVE that problem and would solve same via working with buyer of gas even if I had to buy/lease a large compressor at the end of line.
The hard part is finding product. The rest is easy to solve and been part of the business for many years.
These were posted from 4/26 - 5/19.
And this one...
I can give a PPS estimate based on op costs, overrides, taxes etc but never do because it is too involved. I will stick with .23 per share gross on what I have read and through my experience as a producer. STUOF is very undervalued IMO.
Found this comment from someone who says they are an oilman.
Do ya'll realize that condensate sells for a premium over oil? If the BTU is 1100 or better, STUOF MAY get a premium per MCF. Compressor concerns are not a factor to me. Why? I worry more about finding wells with volume and then sustained casing pressure.
Know this about O&G, the well will tell you what it wants to produce. Reading flow vs. pressure will allow you to find that happy medium. I fired more than a few pumpers that went against my rule of finding the maximum flow/pumprate and then back off 10%.
Just doing my due dilligence... IHub is the best!
Hope it helps.
Check-out post 233 for a reminder...
c_t_dykes, I talk to IR about once every two weeks and they really are good folks.
When I asked them about the tie-in at McCleod they said about that they should have news within a week. 2 days later the news broke. Of course they can"t gaurantee any timline as they are subject to the companies timing on press releases.
As I said, I was told about a week and we should hear about the approval,"but" there still are no gaurantees.
I like the people at Primoris Group and I believe that they have been just as frustrated at times with delays etc... as anyone has. Some things just can't be helped.
Hope we get that press release soon...
To THE JACK from Germany, Very nicely put. I like your perspective on things.
Thanks Tom, Appreciate the encouragement. Any recent news on Gordondale?
Marky, Primoris Group said about a week... that was a week ago. So we gotta be close. It has to do with how fast they are approving the ERP's.
sorry for the double post... too nuch coffee
Marky, "There's a whole lotta shakin goin on"
Ciao
Marky, "There's a whole lotta shakin goin on"
Ciao
Check out the spread. If the sellers would place limit orders instead of market orders, there wouildn't be so much "slippage" and the price would not dip as much. I have seen 300 share mrkt orders to sell, cause the price to drop 3-4 Cents, while 25,000 share mrkt orders move it a penny.
This market maker is having his way with the traders. If your'e going to sell, place a limit order. Don't let the M/M drop the price 4-5 cents or more on you.
Check your data... he's having a field day with everyone else's money.
Swayne, I think Jack is an instigator with a sense of humor. But you better be careful submitting post's to me as you might get labeled as an undercover agent for the "oil men". Or a Nazi spy...
p.s. One of the reasons I sound so optimistic is, outside of the fact of slow communication, I have not been able to find any "real" bad news on this company. If you have any, please let me know... too much at stake.
Let's see Jack,
I grew up in Sonoma County, Ca. attended Fresno State University,
played football on a scholarship, won a championship, blew a knee and hate to lose.
1st time I heard about San Telmo was last year when news came out on cbs marketwatch.
forever optimist? Oh yeah, I don't like to be around negative people. I've got alot riding on this and I believe these guys are for real... I appreciate the facts and encouragement. I'm in it for the haul and enjoy comments that reflect common sense.
p.s. I'm Italian and I've been the director of a non-profit org. for 20 years. questions?
Right-on Stockup,
What do you think? With the Compression problem at McCleod fixed...it will be. Gordondale ERP approval, Gordondale production, Peace River Arch pipeline Construction, Long Culee drilling, 2nd Gordondale well site drilling, more land purchases (they just got a ton of cash) warmer weather etc........ It'll be a "rush".
Whatever happened to Stock-up, Kanzler, and Snow_deer?
Jack Weaks... Glad to hear your still in. Wore out? By Mon. afternoon we were exausted.
Gordondale news is literally any moment, and with San Telmo "wining and dining" the gas plant owner we could start getting news more frequently. Wouldn't that be a novelty?
With the added cash from yesterdays news, we believe we are in for a kick-butt summer.
We could realistically see 4-6 projects (drilling,casing, testing, pipeline construction,and tie-ins going on at the same time.
This company is sweet.......
It's all good!
According to Primoris Group, Gordondale news to pop any day...
Oh yeah, I'm very happy with my wife. And our house is German "clean". She's also 1/2 Swedish, so that's cool too.
How do you spell momentum?
A "real" Captain will stay with "his" ship, even though it may "appear" to be sinking.
"Rats" will leave.
Sometimes rats are the problem, and when they leave, the ship corrects itself.
HEY! A pig just flew by....
Swayne, That's hilarious!
I have a saying, "If your going to talk about doing something... do it" If your not going to do it, then stop talking about it"!
Isn"t STUOF up .13 right now.
Talk about the timing of putting both feet in one's mouth.
Marky, I married a German girl...go KRAUTS go! and my friends are laughing too.
I haven't heard the word "cretin" in awhile. Way to go.
p.s. Isn't STUOF up .12 right now? Hello?????????????
Just the beginning, baby! Gordonedale's gonna blow this
stock through the roof! I hope...........
We think it's the lack of information coming from the company.
that and the last "good news" was mixed because of the compression problem at McLoed.
When the news came out re the new CFO, the stock moved up. Go figure.
DHB industries had an incedible 1stQ report and crashed the next day...fickle biz we are in. If we had it all figured out we wouldn't be here!
Watch what happens when Gordondale news hits. It will most likely make a nice run and if we don't get more news soon, it will start to slip... my thoughts.
If IR would be consistent with info STUOF could become marginable before you know it. They are a good company...
belmontdan,
xto 5 yr low - 2.02 / hi 28.82
epex " 1.50 / 18.59
chk " 1.63 / 14.35
The lows are from 1999 & 2000.
I think San Telmo is at the right place at the right time. Not a stock for the instant coffee crowd.
Hope it turns around soon. It would be good for everyone's psyche!
Go Gordondale!!!
The Phantom Trader Weekly update
Market Insights…Special Situations…Traders Network
Ø A quick note on ST
Ø DHB
Ø Next up?
Dear Reader,
Oil surpassed the $40 mark this week. Most of our picks in the sector are rocking. That is, with the exception of San Telmo.
I expect that to change, however. At these levels, I consider ST a strong buy. I’ll have more on the situation next week. But don’t let this opportunity pass you by.
*****
Earlier today I received a note from Brian Hicks, editor of New America Investor. You’ll recall that Brian brought DHB to our attention. Here’s what he had to say:
“Yesterday, the COO of DHB Industries, Sandra Hatfield, was interviewed on CNBC.
In my opinion, the interview went very well. And this is an important point we shouldn’t overlook.
I’ve held positions in stocks that were decimated by negative interviews with CNBC.
But, there’s nothing negative about DHB Industries. Reports coming out of Iraq and Afghanistan claim that the Interceptor Outer Tactical Vest is performing brilliantly, saving dozens of lives every single day.
With publicity like that, how can you not own the stock?
I’m not going to repeat the entire interview here, but you can listen to it by following this link:
http://www.dhbt.com/mediadownloads.asp
One more point about DHB. This stock wants to move higher. It’s begging to move higher.
The only thing holding it down is the broader market. And I’m talking about a general malaise over rising oil prices, rising gasoline prices and an Iraq policy that has lost its direction.
Because of this fear, there’s a lack of buyers.
Don’t get me wrong, there are buyers in this market. Similar to when the smart money snapped up shares in late 2002 (the market bottom), the smart money is buying now in select industries at distressed valuations.
For instance, institutional investors have been net purchasers of DHB stock, which accounts for it nearly doubling in price in the past 3 months.
However, when more buyers return to the market, DHB will be an in-demand stock. Mark my words.
Fundamentally, I believe DHB is severely undervalued. In fact, I think the stock could add another $252 million in market valuation, and would still be undervalued.
And it’s not just DHB Industries that is having a tough time moving higher. Stocks like Cisco and Intel are reporting great results, but are selling off after the announcements.”
For more info. on NAI, visit:
www.newamericainvestor.com
*****
You’ll probably hear from me earlier than usual next week, as I’ll have an urgent update on one of our stocks. Keep an eye out for me.
Until then,
PT
Click here to UNSUBSCRIBE
P.S. Good call on the volume increase over the last 4 days.
Pitbull, With news of the "Emergency Response Plan" approval and Gordaon dale producing without the McLoed compression problem, we should see your figures... and possibly better.
The delays have hurt the price but with more land aquisition (especially in the Gordondale area) we would hope to have consistent news from the company throughout the summer, moving the price higher.
I believe this company could be bought out by the end of the year.
Not a Buy, sell or hold recommendation...
San Telmo update... news within a week. ERP... and Gordondale will not have the same problem as McLoed.
As per IR
Hey, Stock-up and pitbull, your'e both right And IR says... since it is in the best interest of both the gas plant owner and San Telmo to rectify the lack of compression at McLoed, they are working on that right now.
A bargain? without a doubt. Good for those who get in now and don't have as long a wait as some of us have had.
re post 476 & 477... san telmo energy - click on the hyphen for news.
seems like a monday
San Telmo issues material news in a timely fashion but does wish to issue less than significant information just for the sake of issuing a news release. The company feels that it is keeping its shareholders up to date, particularly with material changes. For your easy reference, I have attached the company's two most recent announcements, issued on May 3, 2004 and April 23, 2004 respectively.
News must be disclosed to the entire investment community - including brokers, fund managers, shareholders, analysts, etc. Sending out inconsequential press releases is viewed by most as a waste of time and company resources, and this tactic can be detrimental to the growth of a company. Often, it gets to the point where people will not read any press releases from a company operating in that manner because they become used to a flow of non-material information. We encourage you to call investor relations at (877) 772-9286 whenever you have questions - our team will be pleased to respond to those questions and provide you with factual information that is in the public domain.
Regarding McLeod, the press release disclosed that there is a lack of adequate compression in the gathering system, which is the problem. San Telmo's well is very high pressure and can produce at a very high rate compared to the other wells that are owned by the gas plant owner. The compressor that services the San Telmo well and others is there to equalize the line pressure in the sales line gathering system. In other words, it equalizes the pressures of a number of wells that are flowing at different rates so that they all can produce. The pressure on the well is decreased in the compressor and the other wells are increased so that they equalize. All the gas then goes to the gas plant for processing. The compressor can only handle a certain volume of gas and gas plant owners typically produce their own gas first and then provide remaining compressor capacity to other companies, which is where the restricted flow comes in. Adding another compressor should alleviate the problem, but this is something that has to be done by the gas plant owner.
Regarding government approval of the Emergency Response Plan required to initiate production at Gordondale, there is no typical timeframe for approval. My understand is that it depends on the number of applications that are in the queue at any given time.
San Telmo issues material news in a timely fashion but does wish to issue less than significant information just for the sake of issuing a news release. The company feels that it is keeping its shareholders up to date, particularly with material changes. For your easy reference, I have attached the company's two most recent announcements, issued on May 3, 2004 and April 23, 2004 respectively.
News must be disclosed to the entire investment community - including brokers, fund managers, shareholders, analysts, etc. Sending out inconsequential press releases is viewed by most as a waste of time and company resources, and this tactic can be detrimental to the growth of a company. Often, it gets to the point where people will not read any press releases from a company operating in that manner because they become used to a flow of non-material information. We encourage you to call investor relations at (877) 772-9286 whenever you have questions - our team will be pleased to respond to those questions and provide you with factual information that is in the public domain.
Regarding McLeod, the press release disclosed that there is a lack of adequate compression in the gathering system, which is the problem. San Telmo's well is very high pressure and can produce at a very high rate compared to the other wells that are owned by the gas plant owner. The compressor that services the San Telmo well and others is there to equalize the line pressure in the sales line gathering system. In other words, it equalizes the pressures of a number of wells that are flowing at different rates so that they all can produce. The pressure on the well is decreased in the compressor and the other wells are increased so that they equalize. All the gas then goes to the gas plant for processing. The compressor can only handle a certain volume of gas and gas plant owners typically produce their own gas first and then provide remaining compressor capacity to other companies, which is where the restricted flow comes in. Adding another compressor should alleviate the problem, but this is something that has to be done by the gas plant owner.
Regarding government approval of the Emergency Response Plan required to initiate production at Gordondale, there is no typical timeframe for approval. My understand is that it depends on the number of applications that are in the queue at any given time.
To whom it may concern;
Is there a possibility that the shareholders could receive "newsbites" every week or two? We think it is important for shareholder confidence which lends itself to price stability.
For example... Will we hear when the bottle neck on McLeod is rectified? Will we get news when the ERP is approved at Gordondale? And if so, how long before we get production results?
We feel that a continual flow if information, regardless how insignificant it may seem, will be extremely beneficial to everyone involved, including San Telmo Energy.
Thank you for your consideration,
California shareholders