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there must be more to it than a share dumping scheme if they really got the $10M. That would be a lot of shares at current levels.
37M by lunch, very nice and looking thin all the way up
Glad to see you guys are making some hay on this one again. My dilution concerns are off the table so I'm back in the game.
The 43's are going fast, get them while you can. Well that didn't last long.
I wouldn't buy back in at any price right now.
Show me profits or I'll assume more dilution is coming.
One has to ask how many of those diluted shares are still in their possession, how strapped for cash are they and will their slow and steady release run this down to nothing. Still a believer but am sitting idle until I see quarterly numbers. I don't care if entry is .10 after the numbers if they are good, better than getting in at .001 and riding it down to 0.
My position has not changed, show me a good quarter and I'm back in even if I miss the bottom but until that happens only thing that can pay the bills is dilution. Good business idea, they need to execute and quick.
somebody please explain. After looking at what an REF is, looks like more dilution to me unless I'm missing something or current dilution was used for the REF.
Tip: Wait for .0004-.0006. The company itself established the value at .0005 when it traded 40,000,000 shares at that price for $20K.
Slojab,
Do you think that's due to CAGR selling off their shares? Dump a bunch and let it drop, let it stabilize a little and do it again. They have a lot of shares to cash in with the dilution and to pay for startup costs.
That Marble Arch report was supposed to help bring in deeper pockets but nothing out yet. Maybe we can ask PhilCheese or Alyssa where it is.
There is a lot of speculation, maybe we should ask PhilCheese and his peeps loading up what the truth is.
I still see a business here but they need to be profitable quick.
I posted concerns months ago about the need for cash to finance expansion and unfortunately that is coming with dilution. I believe on the con call they said a store takes $100K to get started and if that's true, that would mean about 75M shares per store assuming there is no revenue from other ventures. You add into that all the other expenses, they will have not choice to dilute until the stores get running and hopefully making money.
Not sure who will buy all those shares either because if they keep selling at the ask it will run down for sure.
As stated many times, good long term play but they need to be cash flow positive by the end of the year.
Exactly! and that proves my point. Bling-Bling and da boyz knew that the average penny munchkin would assume by using the word "container" they meant the big 40" one. This company is nothing if not intentionally deceiving.
What I remember from the call is CAGR figured out how to do business in China, how to attract buyers to wines unknown them them, an infrastructure in place that would take others years to accomplish, relabling bottles to match Chinese customer base, fine tuning the offering for the market and 400 wines by year end.
I may have missed something but seems like we're ready to rock and with the ask almost nonexistent others think so too.
Other wineries will come. Mondavi may be able to come in and sell that Woodbridge chit in short order but it doesn't mean the customers want it as Jeff pointed out. Other smaller better quality wineries will embrace the CAGR model as some have and more will.
Considering their year closed in December and it's January now when someone says by the end of Jan I have no doubt they mean from Jan 1 to the last day of Jan. I don't need them to spell out every single thing in such fine detail. CAGR is moving along, no reason to think every word is meant to mislead.
As for profit, margins last year ware 55 pts. which is very healthy if they can maintain that.
As for those that want exact numbers, the month isn't over yet. Run rating your sales is not an uncommon practice because it's all you have to go on until the month is ended, especially retail when you have no backlog to factor in.
I agree on the share dilution in the past being an issue but I think Frank didn't realize the cost of setting up China. Jeff mentioned on the phone $800K just to China and then all the lawyers and other fees involved with the process.
The way I see it, if nothing else, CAGR can sell just their rights to sell in China for over $1M saving someone else the two years it takes and the fact that it will cost anyone at least $1M anyway. That valuation is before they even sell a single bottle of wine which we know they are doing every day.
Go CAGR!
Just caught this today on MSN, nothing we didn't already know though.
"statistics released at by Vinexpo and International Wine and Spirit Research (ISWR) showed the United States consumed the equivalent of 3.7 billion bottles of wine in 2011. Americans surpassed the traditional wine-guzzling nations: France, Italy, Spain, Austria, and Germany. China, which is one of the fastest growing markets, knocked England out of fifth place."
China will continue to grow and so will CAGR!
IMO, China will be the #2 consumer of wine within a few years. Culture is what makes France, Italy, Spain and Austria top consumers but China has sheer mass and population to knock them off their ranks.
CAGR, long and strong!
Did CAGR represent themselves as a highly profitable company or did some of this board do that?
I have absolutely no faith that CAGR will ever be successful, even if they really tried to be.
Jeff mentioned more traditional funding but didn't get into specifics. I think the hiring of Marble Arch will help them put together a package to solicit funds.
If these guys are going to issue more shares I think they should forfeit some of their own.
OK so faced with possible dilution I"m back in anyway based on what I heard on the call. I like the plan and as I mentioned a few weeks back, other wineries will be coming to CAGR because they did all the heavy lifting already and spent the $1M to be able to sell wine in China. That's why they'll be up to 400 brands by year end.
Plus, another container leaving any day now for China full of wine.
They fessed up that the GDHI plan had some flaws which was nice. I like the idea of the tastings at stores and other venues. When I walk into a wine shop I buy CA wine because I know a good portion of the makers. Italy and France, I have no idea beyond a few bigger names. Same in China, they walk into the store and have no idea so just buy China wine. Having the tastings allows them to try before buy and will spark a lot of sales and education.
I think Jeff said Southern was valued at $15B or $18B and best I know they only service the east coast of the US so imagine the potential with the population a magnitude larger.
Go CAGR, long and strong
If you listened to the costs of getting to where they are now, it's about $1M. Somebody wanting to get into the China wine business would buy these guys just for the infrastructure and IMO that should be included in the valuation.
It will pop, just a matter of time. Don't think all those Embassy contacts will not help future efforts either.
Ouch, stop the bleeding.
LOL, mute button people.
All this wine talk, had to pop a cork and get the party started.
I'll try to make the call but what I want to know what Q4 sales were and quarterly projections for this year on a quarterly basis. I also want to know whose wine they sold because i'm hoping it's not all Baumgarner wine sold with some creative accounting. Lucent used to do that back in the day, move product to trailers out back and call it sales.
Is the sales distribution or retail? Didn't think they had the retail store going but 55 pts. margin on distribution business seems high.
I'm hopeful but skeptical.
Did a search on that PR firm and the company they reported on that keeps coming up was at .06 with a forecast by these guys at .27 and they are currently trading below the .06 they started at.
Unfortunately seems like fluff and if this is a paid service, you know what the deal there is.
I'm still wait and see. Show me some quarterly data and second half of the year I'll jump in if it looks good.
Revenues have increased dramatically at 303% and there is no reason to believe they won't continue to grow.
Can anyone explain how their gross margins went from 25 pts in 2010 to 55 pts in 2011? Seems awfully high unless accounting games are being played.
If loading up at these prices is a no brainer how has the market cap changed from a few weeks ago? Prices are down but shares are up, doesn't seem like you're any better off IMO.
It is amazing how some already know what will and will not be said on the CAGR Conference Call. Can't even schedule a conference call without some trying to discredit those who scheduled and what will be said, amazing! Imagine the fuss over the news coming out!
I can't find all the reports I saw a month or so ago but here is a blurb I just found. The same article estimates the CA wine business at $18.5B
"U.S. vintners shipped $35.7 million of wine to China during the first eight months of this year, up 20 percent from a year ago, according to the Wine Institute. California wines make up 90 percent of those U.S. exports." This was for 2011.
So my point is out of the total consumption CA wines are relatively low. I had percentage numbers but can't find them again.
This is why I see it as a long term play and I only bailed now because there is not enough cash to finance the business the way I see it without selling more shares as we have seen. They sold shares just to satisfy $10K debts.
I'm watching and I would rather buy back at .05 if it runs to .50 than say I was in at .004 when it ran to .50 considering the potential downside.
I sold a bunch a couple/few weeks ago to cover cost but here is my final exit. GLTA
12/30/2011 11:56:09 Sold 78000 CAGR @ 0.0053
12/30/2011 11:56:09 Sold 24000 CAGR @ 0.0052
12/30/2011 11:56:09 Sold 325000 CAGR @ 0.0051
12/30/2011 11:56:09 Sold 814624 CAGR @ 0.005
Why is it every time shares show up it's the MM playing games again? The same thing was said when I put my shares up. Why can't anyone believe people just want out? Because it's the buy of a lifetime?
I still hold my position that long term they could make a successful business but as I see it they need too much cash to do it and there is only one way to get it right now, sell shares. The promises of big fins faded.
BTW, Did I read that someone thinks Chinese New Year will help their business? California wine in China has no traction, it will be an educational process that will take years with hopefully some profitable quarters along the way.
I"m out until I see real movement in sales and profits and hopefully it's not next years annual report, would like to see Q's going forward.
Another good question would be who told him the fins would be released Jan. 15 when they came out sooner? I'm glad I'm out right now but as said before, good business idea and will be watching. These guys need to prove themselves in the coming quarters by making money to support growth without selling new shares.
First, I want to thank whoever helped me close my position in the 5's on Friday. Will be looking to buy back in after some positive quarters.
As far as CAGR being in the business to sell shares, I don't think that's the case. I do think though they will need to issue more shares to finance their business plan and that is what I"m waiting to see.
So once they move to audited financials does that mean they will have to put out quarterly statements? If the business is to progress as it should waiting another year to know what's going on is not good.
At this point I would rather pay a nickel after solid quarter on quarter growth than try to get in at the ground floor but I might be temped if it his 2's.
For what? I must have missed that one.
I believe there could be a long term play here still but the lack of cash in the financials makes me doubt if they have the capital to get this kickstarted which will mean more shares to raise cash.
It would be nice to know what FY Q4 looked like because that would provide more info on what's to come. Right now inventory is turning twice, payables are substantially higher than receivables and there is other large short term debt.
Looking forward to the conference call.
Any comment on the annual report? Are these the big fins that everybody has been waiting for? Why now and not Jan 15?