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They had 585,000 Bushels Of Corn Hedged @ the End Of Q2
& Credit Line + Cash to Hedge More,Lets Hope They Did.
My Plan,Is to Sell 1/2 Around the Day before Earn. Release & Take Down Some Profit.
If It Goes Down,I Reload.
If It Goes Up,I Happy having 1/2 Still On.
Just My Strategy,Im Sure You have Your Own.
If they Hedged More (Good)If Not(Bad)
Hard to Tell
Genrally has a Big Run Up to Earn.
Risky Though,Sell Some Ahead Of Earn. & You Will Do Great
I Sold .34c Shrs. In Rescent Run to .70 for a Double,Wish I had Sold All & Reloaded Lower.
Sold 1/2 my Trading shrs. & Reloaded @ .41,Would Have Been Nice to Reload @.355 Friday.
RIN Ethanol Replacement Market Is Dead!
West Coast Ethanol $2.57 a gallon,Gas prices set a record in California $4.614 for a gallon of regular
*$2.04 Price Difference,Sounds Very Profitable to Put More In & Stop Using RINs
*RIN Trading has Become Non Existant with Profit Produced by Actually Blending Ethanol
Ethanol RINS flat as physical blending increases
Janet McGurty, Reuters
Some blenders and refiners are using physical ethanol to blend into gasoline rather buy RINs, essentially credits that fuel companies use to prove they have satisfied the ethanol production mandate. Levels have surged this summer as a drought-stricken corn crop raised questions about whether ethanol producers would make enough of the corn-based fuel for oil companies to meet their quotas.
Ethanol was selling at a 34-cents a gallon discount to conventional gasoline in the Midwest, making it more economically attractive to use.
(This Was When thier Was Only a .34c Price Discount to Gasoline)
RIN Trading Market Is Dead!
Ethanol Renewable Identification Numbers (RINS),You Dont Get Ethanol When You Buy an RIN/You Get a # So You Dont Have to Blend
Q4 Earnings Calc. & Sustainability
Columbia Broad ,OR 40 mln Gal
Majic Valley Burly,ID 60 mln Gal
Stockton Stockton,CA. 60 mln Gal
160 mln Gal x .67% = 107,200,000 mln Gal
107,200,000/4 = 26,800,000
26,800,000 + 3rd Party Gallons = Aprox. 36 mln Gal.
Depending On How Much Kinergy Sold
Margin Calc.
West Coast Ethanol $2.57 a gallon
Corn December 2012 $7.48
$7.48/3 = $2.493
$2.493 x 2 = $4.986
MILO $6.83
$6.83/3 = $2.276
2/3 Corn $4.986 + 1/3 Milo $2.276 =
$7.262 per Bushel Of Feed Stock
1.Ethanol + WDGS = $2.57 + $0.8904 = $3.4604
2.Feed Stock = $7.262/2.8 = 2.593
3.Natural Gas = .09
4.Enzymes = .04
5.Yeast = .03
6.Electricity = .03
7.Denaturants = .08
8.Other Costs = .30 (Wages,water,mainenance etc.)
Gross Operating Margin Is Line 1 Minus the sum of lines 2 thru 8
$3.4604 - $3.163 = $0.2974c
Current Margins @ Todays Corn & Milo Prices
= .29 3/4 c Per Gallon
36 mln x .2975c =$10,710,000 Dollars In Earnings for Q4 if Margins Remain Stagnant @ Fri Price for the Qaurter.
Revenue Of Aprox $250,000,000 for Q4
$10,710,000 Dollars In Earnings for Q4 x 4 Quarters = $42.84 mln
$42.84 mln x S&P 14 Multiple = a Market Cap Of $599,760,000
Current Market Cap: 43.04 mln
(Now,You May Wonder/Is this Sustainable Thrue 2013?)
Yes & This Is Why
1.Midwest Ethanol Locked Out Of CA. LCSF Ethanol Market
http://ethanolproducer.com/articles/8745/appeals-court-temporarily-reinstates-california-lcfs
2.Brazil CA. Biggest LCFS Ethanol Supplier Will Need to Import & Wont Have Any to Export.
Brazil - Unica and government agree to raise ethanol blend back to 25% in 2013
Tuesday September 18 2012
Growers association Unica and the federal government have agreed to raise the anhydrous ethanol blend in gasoline back to 25% from the start of next year, the interim president of the association Antonio de Padua Rodrigues said.
Currently the blend stands at 20%. The blend is then to rise to between 25 and 30% from 2020, according to Mr. Padua.
In Brazil, analysts expect gasoline imports from the US and Europe to increase as ethanol production continues to fall. April’s ethanol production fell 40% on the year while mills are expected to prefer sugar to ethanol in the current season, at 48.8% of the crop. That’s the highest ratio to sugar seen in six years.
LCFS Ethanol Will Be In Serious Shortage,Starting In January.
Further Increasing CA. Ethanol Prices & PEIX Margins
E15 Etanol Is Ramping Up Further Reducing Ethanol Supply
http://www.ethanolrfa.org/news/entry/sept-15-fuel-change-brings-new-opportunities-for-e15/
Margin Calc. for Q4
36 mln x .2975c =$10,710,000 Dollars In Earnings for Q4 if Margins Remain Stagnant @ Fri Price for the Qaurter.
Revenue Of Aprox $250,000,000 for Q4
Columbia Broad ,OR 40 mln Gal
Majic Valley Burly,ID 60 mln Gal
Stockton Stockton,CA. 60 mln Gal
160 mln Gal x .67% = 107,200,000 mln Gal
107,200,000/4 = 26,800,000
26,800,000 + 3rd Party Gallons = Aprox. 36 mln Gal.
Depending On How Much Kinergy Sold
Margin Calc.
West Coast Ethanol $2.57 a gallon
Corn December 2012 $7.48
$7.48/3 = $2.493
$2.493 x 2 = $4.986
MILO $6.83
$6.83/3 = $2.276
2/3 Corn $4.986 + 1/3 Milo $2.276 =
$7.262 per Bushel Of Feed Stock
1.Ethanol + WDGS = $2.57 + $0.8904 = $3.4604
2.Feed Stock = $7.262/2.8 = 2.593
3.Natural Gas = .09
4.Enzymes = .04
5.Yeast = .03
6.Electricity = .03
7.Denaturants = .08
8.Other Costs = .30 (Wages,water,mainenance etc.)
Gross Operating Margin Is Line 1 Minus the sum of lines 2 thru 8
$3.4604 - $3.163 = $0.2974c
Current Margins @ Todays Corn & Milo Prices
= .29 3/4 c Per Gallon
WSJ Carbon Trading Heating Up Good for PEIX
September 14, 2012, 5:59 p.m. ET
CarbonTrading Heating Up
With California on Track to Implement Cap-Trade Laws, the Market Gets Active
Carbon Trading Heating Up - WSJ.com
Carbon Credit Trading $40billion year market 2020
(Reuters Point Carbon) - Major banks are weighing whether to wade into the California carbon market
Big banks weigh risks, rewards of California's new CO2 market | Reuters
CA.Gas $4.61 - $2.57 Ethanol = $2.04 a Gallon
California Gas Prices Reach An All-Time High $4.6140 a gallon West Coast Ethanol $2.57 a gallon
$4.6140
-$2.57
___________
$2.044 Profit Per Gallon,for Each Gallon Of Ethanol Used
Supply Of Ethanol Will Be Used Up FAST @ that Price!
Current Margins Positive With NO Hedging
Margins Are Positive & Have Been For All Of Q4
West Coast Ethanol $2.57 a gallon
Corn December 2012 $7.48
$7.48/3 = $2.493
$2.493 x 2 = $4.986
MILO $6.83
$6.83/3 = $2.276
2/3 Corn $4.986 + 1/3 Milo $2.276 =
$7.262 per Bushel Of Feed Stock
1.Ethanol + WDGS = $2.57 + $0.8904 = $3.4604
2.Feed Stock = $7.262/2.8 = 2.593
3.Natural Gas = .09
4.Enzymes = .04
5.Yeast = .03
6.Electricity = .03
7.Denaturants = .08
8.Other Costs = .30 (Wages,water,mainenance etc.)
Gross Operating Margin Is Line 1 Minus the sum of lines 2 thru 8
$3.4604 - $3.163 = $0.2974c
Current Margins @ Todays Corn & Milo Prices
= .29 3/4 c Per Gallon
What Compliance Week Said Of “observational visits,”
Tammy WhitehouseSeptember 25, 2012
PCAOB member Lewis Ferguson said in a speech at California State University that the board and Chinese authorities will soon begin “observational visits,” where PCAOB inspectors will observe Chinese authorities conducting their audit oversight activities and Chinese authorities will observe the PCAOB. At first, observations would focus on quality control examinations at audit firms, but not detailed reviews of individual audits. Ferguson said the board is working with both the China Securities Regulatory Commission and China's Ministry of Finance, which share authority over accountants in China.
(Clearly Says will soon begin “observational visits,” where PCAOB inspectors will observe Chinese authorities conducting their audit oversight activities)
not So Clear In the Speach
It Goes On to Say
“This would not be a substitute for a PCAOB inspection but would be a trust-building exercise between regulators,” said Ferguson. “The ultimate goal for the PCAOB is to achieve a level of cooperation with the Chinese authorities that will enable us to have enough information and confidence that we could issue inspection reports on those China-based audit firms that prepare or participate substantially in the preparation of audit reports filed in the United States.”
This has to Help Clear Good CGS Names,Even If It Isnt a Full Inspection.
PCAOBs Lewis Ferguson will soon begin “observational visits,”
PCAOB member Lewis Ferguson said in a speech at California State University that the board and Chinese authorities will soon begin “observational visits,” where PCAOB inspectors will observe Chinese authorities conducting their audit oversight activities and Chinese authorities will observe the PCAOB. At first, observations would focus on quality control examinations at audit firms, but not detailed reviews of individual audits. Ferguson said the board is working with both the China Securities Regulatory Commission and China's Ministry of Finance, which share authority over accountants in China.
http://www.complianceweek.com/pcaob-reaches-tentative-deal-with-china/article/260602/
PCAOBs Lewis Ferguson will soon begin “observational visits,”
http://www.complianceweek.com/pcaob-reaches-tentative-deal-with-china/article/260602/
Compliance Week PCAOB Reaches Deal With China On Inspections
PCAOB member Lewis Ferguson said in a speech at California State University that the board and Chinese authorities will soon begin “observational visits,”
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=80062480
Susquehanna International Group & Capital Ventures
Heights Capital Management is Capital Ventures International’s investment manager. The firm is a private equity arm of Susquehanna International Group, a financial institution that specializes in institutional sales and market making.
Institutional Ownership
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP 06/30/2012 2,830,000
& Now
Capital Ventures reports 9.1% passive stake in Pacific Ethanol
I Wonder What Pacific Ethanol Told SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP @ the Wedbush 2012 Clean Technology & Industrial Growth Conference 1 On 1s
It Must Have Been Something Real Good to Make them Increase thier Stake by 13.1 Mln Shares
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/778164/000110465912066161/a12-22057_1sc13g.htm
Sierra World Equity Review Initiates Coverage "BUY"
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 17, 2012
Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) Sierra World Equity Review Initiates Coverage - Sierra rates it a "BUY"
Sierra World Equity Review has initiated coverage of Pacific Ethanol (PEIX), Sierra has issued a BUY Rating for PEIX...Sierra believes that VERY GOOD TIMES are ahead for Pacific Ethanol and it's shareholders following the new Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ruling on the volume of bio-diesel for 2013.
Known for her accurate forecasts and predictions especially in the bio-tech sector Sierra World Equity Review will be featuring several articles about Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) over the course of the next week.
Sierra World Equity Review is very accurate and independent, look for breaking new articles and frequent updates as Sierra focuses intense coverage on this stock. Sierra World Equity Review is independent, accurate and best of all FREE, recently Sierra was the only Stock Review who called correctly TWO different FDA recent bio-tech drug decisions, in fact Sierra called them unequivocally and days in advance...here's the proof: Sierra called it correctly days in advance for two obesity drugs under consideration by the FDA, the FDA had not given it's approval for over 12 years to any obesity drugs yet Sierra World Equity Review bucked the consensus and was CORRECT when when Belviq from Arena Pharmaceuticals was approved by the FDA and also CORRECTLY that Qnexa (Qsymia) from Vivus would be approved by the FDA (just look at the links below for proof!!). Repeating, we are VERY ACCURATE in our predictions and targets.
http://sierraworldequityreview.blogspot.com/2012/09/pacific-ethanol-peix-sierra-world.html
sorghum price per Bushel $6.22
$1.35 Cheaper than Current Corn
1/3rd Of PEIX feedstocks is sorghum
http://msbusiness.com/2012/09/states-grain-sorghum-crop-may-beat-forecast/
Ethanol stockpiles declined by 0.3 percent to 19.3 million
Ethanol Output in U.S. Fell 3% to 809,000 Barrels a Day
By Mario Parker - Sep 26, 2012 8:01 AM PT
Ethanol production in the U.S. fell 3 percent to 809,000 barrels a day last week, the lowest level in eight weeks.
Output tumbled the most since July 6 while stockpiles declined by 0.3 percent to 19.3 million barrels, 11 percent higher than a year earlier, the Energy Department said in a report today.
Imports averaged 72,000 barrels a day compared with 58,000 the previous week.
Conventional gasoline blended with ethanol climbed 2.2 percent to 5.3 million barrels a day.
Denatured ethanol for October delivery fell 2.8 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $2.235 a gallon at 10:42 a.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade. Prices have gained 1.5 percent this year.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DOETFETH:IND
Valero citing improved margins ReOpens 2 Plants
& They Dont Use Milo Like PEIX,Thier Margins are Not as Good
as PEIX
Im Thinking Last 2012 Objective Will Be Met Soon
Valero Energy Corp., citing improved margins, has restarted two ethanol plants in the Midwest that have been shuttered since June.
“We had expected that when we closed the plants in June, that by the harvest, corn prices would come down somewhat and that would improve margins,” Valero spokesman Bill Day said. “And that's what happened. Margins have improved to the point that it's feasible for the plants to be in operation.”
http://www.mysanantonio.com/business/article/Valero-restarts-two-ethanol-plants-3878602.php
"Crop residue could produce 8 billion Gallons of ethanol"
Poet CEO Jeff Lautt
“Crop residue could be used to produce almost 8 billions of gallons of ethanol for the U.S., but only if drivers are given the option to use it. E15"
http://www.growthenergy.org/news-media/ethanol-in-the-news/market-access-critical-for-ethanol-ceo-says/
Capital Ventures International Business Phone: 345-949-7500
http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=capital+ventures+international&CIK=&filenum=&State=&SIC=&owner=include&action=getcompany
http://blog.whalewisdom.com/filer/capital-ventures-international-e9
Form SC 13G Pacific Ethanol CAPITAL VENTURES
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=8488085
After The Bell Friday US audit Chi Coms
September 21, 2012 11:43 pm
China agrees accord with US audit agency
By Shahien Nasiripour in Washington
The US audit watchdog has reached a tentative accord with Chinese authorities to allow American accounting inspectors to observe audit activities in China.
The agreement between the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board and Chinese government agencies could serve as the first step in granting US officials access to auditing papers for companies based in China.
The PCAOB has long desired access to audit materials as part of its oversight of the audit industry, but has been frustrated by Chinese refusals. Under Chinese law, it is illegal to remove audit work papers from the country and Chinese authorities do not allow non-Chinese regulators to conduct inspections in China.
“This would not be a substitute for a PCAOB inspection but would be a trust-building exercise between regulators,” Lewis Ferguson, PCAOB member, said on Friday. “We hope such exercises will?.?.?.??lead to further co-operation.”
Since the latter part of 2010, when alleged financial frauds and accounting issues began emerging in small Chinese companies that are listed on US stock exchanges, 67 China-based issuers have had their auditor resign and 126 companies have either been delisted from US securities exchanges or have stopped filing regular reports with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The PCAOB and the SEC have sought to investigate some of the audit firms involved with these companies but have been stymied by Chinese authorities.
The rise of “reverse mergers”, in which a non-US company acquires a US shell company to gain a listing on a US stock exchange, bypassing the regulatory scrutiny involved in a traditional initial public offering, has led to increased scrutiny of the companies’ auditors.
Some short sellers have targeted these companies in part because they reckoned that their US auditors were unable to properly monitor the companies’ Chinese operations.
The SEC and the Federal Bureau of Investigation have been investigating companies involved in reverse mergers.
The PCAOB wants to eventually be able to issue inspection reports on China-based audit firms that prepare or heavily participate in audit reports filed in the US, Mr Ferguson said.
Nearly 5 per cent of PCAOB-registered firms are based either in China or Hong Kong, comprising the largest group of non-US firms.
Mr Ferguson cautioned that while US officials remained hopeful they will reach a final accord with Chinese authorities, “to date difficulties remain”.
“It remains uncertain where this dialogue will ultimately lead”, he said.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b2ca0960-042c-11e2-b91b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz27Lbumxqz
Chinese Companies Auditing Inspections After Hrs. Friday
September 21, 2012 11:43 pm
China agrees accord with US audit agency
By Shahien Nasiripour in Washington
The US audit watchdog has reached a tentative accord with Chinese authorities to allow American accounting inspectors to observe audit activities in China.
The agreement between the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board and Chinese government agencies could serve as the first step in granting US officials access to auditing papers for companies based in China.
The PCAOB has long desired access to audit materials as part of its oversight of the audit industry, but has been frustrated by Chinese refusals. Under Chinese law, it is illegal to remove audit work papers from the country and Chinese authorities do not allow non-Chinese regulators to conduct inspections in China.
“This would not be a substitute for a PCAOB inspection but would be a trust-building exercise between regulators,” Lewis Ferguson, PCAOB member, said on Friday. “We hope such exercises will?.?.?.??lead to further co-operation.”
Since the latter part of 2010, when alleged financial frauds and accounting issues began emerging in small Chinese companies that are listed on US stock exchanges, 67 China-based issuers have had their auditor resign and 126 companies have either been delisted from US securities exchanges or have stopped filing regular reports with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The PCAOB and the SEC have sought to investigate some of the audit firms involved with these companies but have been stymied by Chinese authorities.
The rise of “reverse mergers”, in which a non-US company acquires a US shell company to gain a listing on a US stock exchange, bypassing the regulatory scrutiny involved in a traditional initial public offering, has led to increased scrutiny of the companies’ auditors.
Some short sellers have targeted these companies in part because they reckoned that their US auditors were unable to properly monitor the companies’ Chinese operations.
The SEC and the Federal Bureau of Investigation have been investigating companies involved in reverse mergers.
The PCAOB wants to eventually be able to issue inspection reports on China-based audit firms that prepare or heavily participate in audit reports filed in the US, Mr Ferguson said.
Nearly 5 per cent of PCAOB-registered firms are based either in China or Hong Kong, comprising the largest group of non-US firms.
Mr Ferguson cautioned that while US officials remained hopeful they will reach a final accord with Chinese authorities, “to date difficulties remain”.
“It remains uncertain where this dialogue will ultimately lead”, he said.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b2ca0960-042c-11e2-b91b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz27Lbumxqz
WSJ U.S. and China Reach Agreement on Inspections
The U.S. and China have tentatively agreed on "observational visits" in which inspectors from the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, the U.S. audit-industry regulator, would observe Chinese authorities examining and evaluating the work of their local accounting firms, accounting-board member Lewis Ferguson said in a speech Friday.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444032404578010293911580874.html
U.S. and China Reach Tentative Agreement on Audit Inspections
September 21, 2012, 6:01 p.m. ET
By MICHAEL RAPOPORT
U.S. and Chinese authorities have reached a tentative agreement to begin sending American audit-firm inspectors to China as observers—a step that regulators hope will help pave the way for full U.S. scrutiny of Chinese firms that audit U.S.-traded companies.
The U.S. and China have tentatively agreed on "observational visits" in which inspectors from the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, the U.S. audit-industry regulator, would observe Chinese authorities examining and evaluating the work of their local accounting firms, accounting-board member Lewis Ferguson said in a speech Friday.
That would be a step toward potential joint inspections of the Chinese firms by both U.S. and Chinese inspectors, which the board hopes will begin next year.
Inspectors from the board conduct regular evaluations of audit firms that audit companies listed on U.S. markets, even if the firms or companies are located overseas. But the Chinese government has blocked the inspectors from scrutinizing Chinese audit firms, citing sovereignty concerns.
The board has said it needs access to the Chinese firms to protect U.S. investors: More than 100 Chinese companies have encountered questions over their accounting or disclosure, many of them audited by Chinese firms that the board hasn't been allowed to inspect.
Mr. Ferguson said he hopes the observational visits "will build trust and lead to further cooperation" between the U.S. and China, paving the way for full-blown participation by U.S. inspectors. The dates for the visits haven't yet been set.
Mr. Ferguson also said "difficulties remain" in the related attempt to resolve a standoff over whether U.S. regulators should get access to audit documents for Chinese companies they're investigating, though he was "hopeful" of a compromise.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is negotiating with Chinese authorities over its attempt to get Chinese audit firms to cooperate in probing suspected fraud.
The SEC has tried to get documents from Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu's Chinese affiliate concerning two Deloitte clients under SEC investigation, but Deloitte won't turn them over because it hasn't gotten China's permission to do so; China maintains tight control over information about its companies and could penalize Deloitte under strict state-secrecy laws if it cooperates with the SEC.
Mr. Ferguson noted if a Chinese audit firm doesn't cooperate with a U.S. investigation, regulators could bar it from auditing U.S.-traded companies. It is the first time anyone from the board has publicly raised that possibility, though the threat of "de-registering" an uncooperative Chinese firm has long been understood to be a potential weapon the U.S. could use if the impasse with China isn't resolved.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444032404578010293911580874.html
Margins Using Milo & Corn Positive Now
Operating Margins Using Milo
1.Ethanol + WDG = $2.39 + .8904 = $3.28
2.Milo $6.73/2.8 = $2.403
3.Natural Gas = .09
4.Enzymes = .04
5.Yeast = .03
6.Electricity = .03
7.Denaturants = .08
8.Other Costs = .30 (Wages,water,mainenance etc.)
Gross Operating Margin Is Line 1 Minus the sum of lines 2 thru 8.
$3.28 - $2.97 = .31 net profit per gallon
__________________________________________________________________
Operating Margins Using Corn Feed Stocks
1.Ethanol + WDG = $2.39 + .8904 = $3.2804
2.Corn $7.48/2.8 = $2.6714
3.Natural Gas = .09
4.Enzymes = .04
5.Yeast = .03
6.Electricity = .03
7.Denaturants = .08
8.Other Costs = .30 (Wages,water,mainenance etc.)
Gross Operating Margin Is Line 1 Minus the sum of lines 2 thru 8.
$3.2804 - $3.2114 = .069 net profit per gallon
Much Improved Balance Sheet
1. $35 mln Credit,from most Rescent SEC filing
2. Capital Surplus from Q2 10Q
Capital Surplus
in Thousands
556,871 + $10
http://finance.yahoo.com/mbview/threadview/?&bn=e150c862-ec07-320e-8c0a-6809302fb2a2&tid=1348424456494-93787e82-a7b2-4c81-ab1d-fa958883f58e&tls=la%2Cd%2C0
3. Paid Off $10 mln In Senior Notes
4. Dividends Not Due til 2015,as A Result of Last Offerig
5. $2+ mln Cash from Early July Offering
6. $1 mln Capital from Most rescent Offering
11.0 Million
- 10.0 mln Senior notes
---------------------------------
= $1mln
Valero restarts US ethanol plants as margins swell
Valero restarts US ethanol plants as margins swell
09.19.2012 |
Valero idled operations in Nebraska and Indiana in June, citing unprofitable returns. Each plant has the capacity to produce 120 million gal/year of ethanol. “Ethanol margins improved to the point where it became feasible to operate the plants again,” said Bill Day, Valero spokesman.
Keywords:
Valero Energy has restarted ethanol plants in Albion, Nebraska, and Linden, Indiana, amid improving margins, the US-based company said on Wednesday.
Valero idled operations in Nebraska and Indiana in June, citing unprofitable returns. Each plant has the capacity to produce 120 million gal/year of ethanol.
“Ethanol margins improved to the point where it became feasible to operate the plants again,” said Bill Day, Valero spokesman.
“We had said when we closed the plants down temporarily in June that we expected them to be back in operation during the harvest.”
A total of 120 employees work at the two plants. All of them remained on the payroll and at their jobs during the shutdown.
Valero is now operating all 10 of its US ethanol plants, with a total capacity to produce 1.2 billion gal/year.
http://www.hydrocarbonprocessing.com/Article/3091634/Latest-News/Valero-restarts-US-ethanol-plants-as-margins-swell.html
Experts: Crop Production, WASDE Indicate Corn Has Peaked
about 325 million bushels larger than the average trade guess
http://www.thebioenergysite.com/news/11629/experts-crop-production-wasde-indicate-corn-has-peaked
Augusta CA. CEPIP Meeting Confirms It Bolt On
For All Cali Ethanol Plants,Funded by the State
Intresting Reading!
http://www.energy.ca.gov/2011-ALT-1/documents/2012-08-01_workshop/2012-08-01_transcript.pdf
Augusta CA. Ethanol Producers Getting Grants from CA.
for Bolt On Technoledgy
Aemetis page 31 to 39
EdeniQ page 53 to 63
My Guess All Cali Producers Are Getting It,
Because they Are Suspending CEPIP after 2013
for Corn Ethanol.
Cellulosic Incentive
http://www.energy.ca.gov/business_meetings/2012_transcripts/2012-06-13_transcript.pdf
Rio Tinto bets on China growth
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2012-09/15/content_15759982.htm
Bloomberg: Wen Growth Pledge Lures Back Janney Montgomery
9/16/2012
Janney Montgomery Scott LLC is advising investors to buy Chinese equities for the first time in two years on prospects Premier Wen Jiabao’s pledge to boost investments and monetary stimulus will support growth in the world’s second-largest economy.
The Bloomberg China-US Equity Index (CH55BN) of the most traded Chinese shares in the U.S. completed the biggest weekly advance this year, buoyed by the latest U.S. Federal Reserve steps and Wen’s comments last week that China still has “ample strength” in either monetary or fiscal domains to propel growth. Economic growth decelerated for a sixth time in the second quarter, expanding 7.6 percent, the slowest pace in three years.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-16/wen-growth-pledge-lures-back-janney-montgomery-china-overnight.html
CEO POET Says Crop residue produce 8billion gallons
Residue Is Trash Anyway,they Should Pay Ethanol Producers to
Haul It Away.
Ethanol Cost to Make Will Go Thrue the Floor,If It Happens
http://www.argusleader.com/article/20120916/NEWS/309160031/Market-access-critical-ethanol-CEO-says
CEO POET Says Crop residue produce 8billion gallons
Residue Is Trash,they Should Pay Ethanol Producers to
Haul It Away.
Ethanol Cost to Make Will Go Thrue the Floor,If It Happens
http://www.argusleader.com/article/20120916/NEWS/309160031/Market-access-critical-ethanol-CEO-says
US Corn Crop Larger Than Expected Says USDA
* Corn crop stabilizes in drought, 3 pct larger than expected
WASHINGTON, Sept 12 (Reuters) -- Searing summer drought slashed U.S. corn production to the lowest level in six years and soybeans to the lowest in nine years, the government forecast on Wednesday, but the corn crop is larger than expected, which will relieve the third year in a row of tight supplies.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/13/us-corn-crop_n_1876805.html
1 thing They Can Do
Sell Ethanol futures & Options @ Todays Inflated Price
& Produce It Later,When Corn Goes Down.
Would be Great for Margins
LCFScredits,Ethanol,Corn futures & Options
LCFS Credits
In May Credits Were $11.50 to $13.50,Now Credits are $15 to $18
Pacific Ethanol Can Sell Futures & Options.
It Makes It Hard to Gauge Earnings from Credits,When They Can Sell them Years Out.
They Can Sell the Future & Make a Quarter Look Pretty Good Now.
Corn
we increased the amount of the plants' revolving credit facility by $5 million to a total of $40 million to provide additional immediate liquidity for the plants' operations.
As of June 30, we had total unused lines of credit of nearly $32 million with immediate access to $13 million in availability.
(So they had $40 mln/then as Of June 30th they had $32 mln) Corn Hedging?
they Also had Imediat Access to another $13 mln to Hedge Before July Corn Price Run Up.
At the Time of Working Up Q2 10Q they had 865,000 Bushels Already Hedged,According to 10Q
(they had Ample Time & Money to Hedge thier Corn + Buy Lower Priced Milo)
Milo Cost Advantage per Bushel to Corn as Of Friday
Milo December 2012 $7.37 Old Crop
Milo December 2013 $5.91 New Crop
Corn December 2012 $7.97 Old Crop
Corn December 2013 $6.36 New Crop
Ethanol
If They Have Been Selling Ethanol Futures & Options at This Summers High Prices,Future Qs Could Be Even More Booming!
future Corn Will Be Much Cheaper,When they Actually Make the Ethanol for Them.
WDGS
Have Been Selling @ a Very High Price All Summer!
Dont Know If They Can Sell futures & Options On Those
(They Have Lots Of Ways to Make a Q Look Good if They Need to Now)
Some Notes On Pacific Ethanols Outlook for Q3
The locations of our plants near multiple rail lines provide options on where to source our corn. Quality and supply of local corn near our plants are not impacted by the drought in the Midwest. We also have access to, and have recently procured, alternative feedstocks to corn such as milo. Our proximity to the Western ports provide us the opportunity to procure imported feedstock. And West Coast markets for ethanol tend to trade stronger premiums to Midwest markets as supplies tighten. In addition, our risk management practices are aimed at securing margins at favorable levels
we do expect an increase in the blending of up to 15% ethanol and gasoline as the EPA has approved and permitted blends at that level. Midwest gas stations have begun offering the 15% ethanol blend, beginning a trend that we expect to expand across the country.
PEIX E15 registration has prepared us to benefit from this meaningful regulation as it becomes more prevalent in our markets in the months and years ahead
we increased the amount of the plants' revolving credit facility by $5 million to a total of $40 million to provide additional immediate liquidity for the plants' operations.
As of June 30, we had total unused lines of credit of nearly $32 million with immediate access to $13 million in availability.
(So they had $40 mln/then as Of June 30th they had $32 mln) Corn Hedging?
they Also had Imediat Access to another $13 mln to Hedge Before July Corn Price Run Up.
At the Time of Working Up Q2 10Q they had 865,000 Bushels Already Hedged,According to 10Q
Milo Cost Advantage per Bushel to Corn as Of Friday
Milo December 2012 $7.37 Old Crop
Milo December 2013 $5.91 New Crop
Corn December 2012 $7.97 Old Crop
Corn December 2013 $6.36 New Crop
New Yeast Process Savings
Mascoma & Lallemand Yeast Product Savings
$ 2.0 million more into the company as saving on consumption of enzymes.
Selling Carbon Credits,Now Produced at a Cellulosic Rate Because of Milo Use
forwards and options have cleared on the exchange, largely in the $15-$18 range.
from Conf. Call
The Low Carbon Fuel Standard is very much in place. There continues to be some legal activity. But what had been a temporary injunction to not implement the program was stayed, and the program is very much back in force. That continues to provide a couple of cents premium for our product, and certainly, all indications are is that we go into another doubling of that requirement of carbon reductions next year, and the compliance schedule continues to slope up pretty steeply that those values will become greater. Well, companies are taking it very seriously. They have a very keen interest in staying aligned with the ethanol that we market since we market all of the lowest carbon ethanol produced in California through Kinergy from the Pacific Ethanol plants and the 2 other marketing agreements. OPIS has recently started to post both a dollars per ton and a cents per carbon point. So we're seeing more price discovery, more activity around trading of credits. We expect that to ramp up as well in 2013.
(Keep In Mind,They Have Increased thier Ownership % from 34% to 67%/this Will Double Earnings.)
Location,Location,Location
Higher Priced West Coast Ethanol
Milo Or Sorghum Price Chart
http://www.mongabay.com/images/commodities/charts/chart-sorghum.html