based upon info available at the time and before we fully understood the impact of the money men allegedly taking the money as per cwrns complaint and before the completion or futher "progress" of never before seen illegal political machinations which affected hindered or destroyed thousands of penny stocks,i posted this info a long time ago
Many PR's referred to the 1st 2 ships...focus on operations-no other miner at this pps has operations-certainly not at this level-do your homework and verify it for yourself
Its been a while since I summarized operations and hiding info about operations is purposeful detrimental as part of an actual defrauding of longs
I point out the huge difference between a company like CWRN w substantial profit and the usual penny co at this pps level which doesnt even have a product---
spot at time of 1st ship was 175-192, spot at time of 2nd ship was 170. Its too late to go back and undo these sales as much as some try. Its too late to take CWRN back to pre-production,prevenue and pre-net income.
CWRN is not like other companies at this pps-its producing,has had good profit margin and substantial revenue,as anybody who looks at juniors costs vs spot price would know.
Current games/complaints have nothing to do w CWRN's operations and have been harped endlessly for profit-which are not hindered in any way and dont even ask any officer or director to withdraw from their position-unlike all but 1 other company in the complaint cattle drive
So I'd prefer to focus on operations
These posts from thousands of hours dd pretty well sum up operations
From a look at these PR's its obvious the net income from these ships was millions per ship-as confirmed by public spot prices.[but as per cwrns complaint much of said income was allegedly illegally held back by the moneymen]
The ca 12 million estimated net profit /date can easily be seen in the many millions in ongoing equipment purchases.
Since only 30% of 1st ship net paid off millions in investor debt etc as per PR this is also confirmation of the market price of iron at time of these ships.
Re dist of revenues from 1st ship Kriton
May 26 2011 "Revenues Distributed, 2nd Bulk Shipment Close"
Quote: the company under Irrevocable Assignment of Documentary Letter of Credit Proceeds, distributed the revenues from its first bulk shipment of iron ore under the following percentages; 60% to ongoing operations, 30% to Project Investors and 10% to Management. The Project Investors recovered approximately 75% of their cash contributions; The Ensenada International Terminal was paid approximately $320,000.00 for receiving, storage, material handling and cargo loading, $356,000.00 was paid to Road-Runner Trucking, $1,115,000.00 was paid to COSFAR Bulk Cargo Shipping, $220,000.00 was paid in royalty fees and surface rights. The Company was also able to meet its obligations to PowerScreen of California paying a balance of $975,000.00 for the crushing equipment. We would like to thank PowerScreen for their ability to provide us with over $1,500,000.00 in equipment that was paid off under settlement of DLC proceeds, without their help it would have been very difficult to secure the equipment we had specified for the production. The Company will be receiving more equipment from PowerScreen shortly.'
Importantly they bought major screening equipment to enable processing of the 1-3mm ore,
reportedly paid off 75% of investors cash contributions w only 30% of the revenue from 1st ship-so that confirms large revenue because those cash contributions were in the millions
,management received 10% to go towards ca 2 million they had advanced towards the project, but 60% went went to operations. They also reportedly acquired previous 68 drill hole reports at this time-which led to the Coloso etc veins
Revenues-3rd and 4th orders of ca 60k tons -this was pieced together from several sources/several people.
By default I'm the one that collated the info from multiple sources to present it in a summary form-the info did NOT come from Bob to me-in fact when I 1st heard it I did not believe it because it represented a change in course from what I knew as an informed investor.
And yes auditors do collate from multiple sources to verify-better to have 2 sources than 1 and 3 rather than 2 etc
orders 3 and 4 were paid for by buyer at port-Bao-as confirmed by Apr 13 and 6-25-12 PR's- because Bao had an interest in CWRN jump starting more equipment/larger production and wanted to use larger ships to carry multiple orders for a large savings in shipping costs.
Besides a small steel company is not going to pay before its shipped and sometimes play a game of chicken(the sue me if you can game played by some buyers after they receive the ore-thats why iron sellers get a DLC from the buyer 1st-and then theres still sometimes a game of chicken) after shipped, as we saw w the 1st ship-always things to learn in the dog eat dog world.
This 60k tons was -independent source-ca 140/ton-which was spot at time-and CWRN based on spot as noted by Nov 17 PR etc-spot pricing is the common pricing regime last 2 years based on actual market contracts-CWRN vein ore has tested as premium -even on 1st ship which wasnt from the veins-before they acquired 1st 68 drill hole results-they had 58 and 62% plus ore-the 2 benchmark standards
The probable 4.2 million profit from this-based on publicly known spot prices- went to more equipment--every nickel had been reportedly going into equipment/operations-which we have seen from pics- to expand operations and products-so they can obtain additional revenue streams
see Kubisiask5's equipment list in MaxShockers dd compilation
1)exotic looking cat 8 dozer-have 3 cat 8 dozers if I remember right from the equipment list in the stickies
2) heavily customized heavy duty trommel w heavy duty components -would cost 1.5 million new (grajekk)-has been processing 200k tons of fertilizer and pellet feedstock byproducts
3) Terex 400 loader w double capacity of CWRN's other loaders -for loading trommel etc
4) additional drilling w larger drilling equipment to begin calculating proven reserves-a big step for a lot of things
5) environmental compliance and associated structures seen in the pics
6) other equipment-feel free to mention additional equipment u guys saw in the pics since Dec
7) there were additional dozers, a 2nd cat 740 hauler (would be 800k new) along the way-but this shows how a large proportion of every sale is going into more equipment to speed up production and create additional revenue streams
8) 2 cat 330 excavators-these are much larger than the original 4 leased excavators,also added very large cat 365 and cat 375 excavators last fall-grajekk had said the cat 375 w ripper bucket could triple production alone
9) more dozers
Probable 12 million plus net income so far [again much allegedly withheld by the moneymen]-not counting publicly disclosed cement income-see bingos posts- based on known spot prices and average costs of juniors etc-based on thousands of hours dd rather than baseless satirical comments-Does this sound like a development stage company-and could be much more now -dont know how much income CWRN is getting from cement product disclosed publicly by CWRN on another board-
Kriton 38524/ton left Apr 2nd 2011-millions of profits-price was unknown but was reportedly more than the 155 somebody posted at the time-spot was 175-192 during that time-both 58% and 62% ore (hadn't reportedly acquired previous 68 drill hole reports yet which led to Coloso vein from whence Loreto ore and all subsequent ore came except for substantial 1-3mm already in inventory) millions of cash contributions from investors were paid off from just 30% of the income from this ship alone
]
Loreto left Aug 8,2011 w 36002 tons millions of profits- ca 170/ton spot- 1st order to come from the higher quality veins see Aug 8 PR (not on marketwire)
the 3rd ship left June 25,2012 with 43823 tons (manifests vary somewhat but amount is irrelevant and small),just as forecast by the Nov 17 PR,which said the next ship would be 40-45k tons. Somebody else discovered the ship-its called dd -and then we tracked the ship via various public ship tracking sites-its again called dd.
4th ship we might see soon for a probable larger ship to save on shipping costs -possibly for the ca 75k ton sinter fines processed by the trommel -see last 2 PR's,or for fertilizer-which seems more likely from the last communication of substance to somebody 10-24-12
shipments 3 and 4 (ca 60 k tons total) paid for in Dec 2011- thus all the millions in new equipment--1 independent source says for 140/ton-about right- spot was ca 140 then (now ca 148 last I knew) plus premium ore
so 134526 tons sold give or take a few 100 tons in 2011 and 2012 for ca 155/ton average or more
-some juniors have negative cost due to premium ore (5/ton for every % over 62%) see Cohibaman's article in Max's dd summary so avg jr miner cost is ca 20/ton plus shipping and trucking (trucking was 9.24/ton for Loreto) 1st 2 loads shipping were ca 30/ton but a Panamax shouldnt be more than 15/ton?as per my extensive calculations posted on other board back in October
since then I've more accurately calculated CWRN cost of pro at probably 10/ton-and when the byproducts are sold will have a negative cost of production
so at the time a profit of 90/ton but to be safe I only estimated 75/ton profit times 134526 tons is $10,089,000 net income plus 5th order of ca 1.25 million profit (trying to be conservative) so total profit to date plus revenue from other products like the cement totals a probable profit of ca 12 million.
start up costs probably raise costs and are unknown but going forward costs will fall and ancillary income streams of sub 1mm iron chips, fertilizer will kick in- CWRN already has cement revenue stream.
part of orders 3,4 and 5 shipped on the Qin Hai-June 12 DWT of ca 45600 tons minus ballast ,water and people is ca 43823 tons shipped-(Nov 17 PR forecast ca 40-45k tons)
-independent pics as well as CWRN pics showed order 5 trucking at port ca Mar 19,2012 -depending on size of order 5 that would be more than the max size of a Panamax-(orders 3 and 4 reportedly total 60k tons) which are rated at 60-80k/ton but cant carry more than ca 75k because have to leave room for people,fuel and ballast
fertilizer as is without any further processing brings a min of 90/ton for the worst fert by 3rd rate operators as verified by independent sites but posted by Rocket email re possible JV plant onsite w OMRI to process fertilizer would result in 325-550/ton (550 for pelleted)see Apr 13 PR
the cheap 1.73% azomite fertilizer offered elsewhere is going for 325-550 as reported and CWRN's fert is 55.55% iron (posted SGS analysis)-will have to be diluted many times-so thats good-
ca 210k tons 0-1mm in inventory a long time ago as per cwrn,which is now being processed or has been processed for separation into sub 1mm iron chips to be pelleted and fertilizer, as noted by at least the last 2 PR's
At this pps companies rarely have any product,let alone revenue, let alone any net income--
CWRN has probably had 12 million net income[much allegedly withheld as per cwrns complaint] now -which I have backed up w a lot of info-its called dd-compiling info from publicly available sources-simply posting satirical questions without proof doesnt change the publicly available facts.
The point of all this is this is the most undervalued company for the pps,which nobody has been able to successfully challenge.[at the time i wrote this] Unlike most companies at this pps this is a real company. At a PE of 15 a pps of .0011 assumes only $342,000 of total net income see below at a pps of .0005 assumes an income of only 155k!
this is due to a panoply of games by otc dtc shorters etc which has nothing to do w operations
Somebody posted months back that order 5 of ca 20k tons had been paid for-so net income now probably 12 million. And 43823 tons of port ore shipped June 12,2012.
I've seen stocks as high as 50 dollars plus pps w large NEGATIVE income. The Penny world-like quantum physics -is strange-their pps (as low as it is) is usually astronomical compared to income- w equivalent PE's -based on future SPECULATIVE income of 20-1000 plus.
How do u figure the ratio when the income is negative-I've seen pennies as high as 1 dollar/share w book value as low as a negative 15 dollars-meaning each share is worth negative 15 dollars in real world "assets" otherwise known as liabilities.
4.361 B shares O/S divided into the guess of only 11.25 million net income (see previous post not counting cement revenue) is .00257968355 net income/share.
So at a PE of 15 that would be a pps of 3.869525325 cents and this does not include the income from cement etc byproducts
This of course increases w each sale in the high profit industry and this ignores the income from other extra sources like the cement trucked to the Ensenada plant
A pps of .0025 yields a market cap of 11 million-which is far less than the inventory is worth![as per spot at that time] .0005 yields an O/S market cap of only 2,150,000!!!
this alone proves the incredible amount of manipulation experienced in pinkie land which is 1 of the reasons they've been working on uplisting to at least the OTCBB- forestalled by opportunistic targeted games by politically motivated players games taking advantage of the no shares issued no gain March 2010 promo which was intended to raise enough money to begin operations-which began August 2010
at a PE of 15 pps of 3.869c divided by a pps of .0027 is only 1/14.329 of what pps should be and thus assumes an income of only 11.25 million dollars divided by 14.329 or 785,000 net income!!!!!!!!
A pps of .0015 assumes a net income of only 431,000!!!. The net income from 1st ship alone was several million as per Apr/Mat 2011 PR's paying off 75 5 of investor cash contribution of several million w only 305 of the revenues.
Public spot and jr miner costs are public knowledge and posted many times.
and ignores future income (and cement byproduct income)-which should be several times greater -as we have seen from huge mine expansion and millions in additional equipment plus coming extra income streams
Note CWRN pps had risen as high as 3.15c before first ship -before any revenue=and was only 1.27% of that -at .0004.!! near xmas 2012
unheard of
the iron ore business has been known for its high profit margin the last years for low cost juniors like CWRN
-as I said spot is public knowledge and so is average jr miners cost-so most jr miners have a profit margin exceeding 50%-many greatly exceeding 50%. Some have negative cost due to premium ore -even without CWRN's coming and present extra income streams
Remember these pennies probably have a SPECULATIVE FUTURE income equivalent average PE of ca 50-then once co's have net income the parallel universe of penny traders punishes them-I have yet to understand the logic-especially when most of these low priced pennies never achieve net income and fail.
There are many reasons which we are aware of-games by otc/dtc/mm/brokers/shorters/restrictions by brokers- they say because pps is below 1c and no current posted financials.
Without current posted financials many brokers restrict buying as part of a new effort starting in 2011 to eliminate low priced pennies and many potential buyers have been standing on the sidelines waiting for posted financials before buying- and the improperly imposed by non regulatory for profit otc classification (based on shorters shout fire of a promotion which never occurred) is also a large drag.
So we await the promised uplisting w its audited financials
The profit has been going into equipment
- far more equipment than any other junior I know of- let alone this pps- including things not listed by Kubi such as construction trailer ,environmental compliance etc
Equipment Valuation Estimates by Kubiask5-see Max's dd summary
The following is Kubi's equipment post.
"There are pictures taken from the mine that shows almost, if not all, of this equipment. You can check the dates on the pics and create a sequence that shows the evolution of the pieces weve gotten over the last year or so. Pretty cool IMO.
I(Kubi) decided to take some time on the various interweb sites and pull together a potential range for the value of our equipment. Some important variables to consider when critiquing the ranges is that a few pieces may be rental still, but not many. another is the used vs. New pricing. There were more than a few items I couldnt match up by year due to picture analysis, but there are also many items that we know are new or used, so that helped.
Basically there will be three tiers, the first being the extreme high end of the spectrum. It contains values of mostly new items, and knowing Bobs mechanical aptitude and our finite budget it stands to reason the final number there is inflated. The third tier is the extreme low end, made up of alot of the junkier, older versions of the equipment. And the middle tier is my wild azz guess. It is within a range of where most of the equipment online is sitting when comparing apple to apples to apples as best as I can.
The vast majority of companies safeguard their pricing, so i had to use various outlets to piece this together. On my middle estimates, I would say if im wrong and the number is lower, its wont be by much. But if im wrong and the number is higher, it could be by a decent margin. Its hard to know with the rebuilt equipment, as well as the reverse deterioration of value on the newer stuff, so I maintained a realistic tone when pricing this out. One thing I can say with confidence, is that CWRN is going after only the premium equipment on our site. The vast majority of available used equipment on the market is junk compared to the pieces we have. Not only that, each piece is pretty much one of the big daddys in their own sector. Theyve done a remarkable job of vetting the maximimum bang for our buck while keeping the focus
on growth.
1.) Cat 375 with ripper, Used rebuilt- $600,000, 425,000 300,000.
2.) Cat 365 Used, rebuilt. 500,000, 350,000, 200,000.
3.)Cat 330, Used. 300,000, 250,000, 150,000.
4.)Cat 330, Used. 300,000, 250,000, 150,000.
5-7.) Chinese 220 used or rented. Saw a 230 for 200k, but 175,000, 150,000, 100,000.
Its true these machines are worth more new, but I have no proof showing they are, so I went with what I felt the current market was dictating.
Excavators- $2,250,000, $1,725,000, $1,100,000.
Dozers:
8-9.) D8R CAT (each, new or used unknown) $800,000, $500,000, $350,000 (beat up 2006 and 2007)
10.) D8N CAT(used) $600,000, 400,000, 150,000.
The dozers we have are absolutely top of the line. they are miles apart in quality compared to what is available out there. The d8n valuation was pretty inconclusive however, but I found a 1996 at 250k and a 1992 at 120,000, and ours appears to be newer than that, certainly in better shape, even if it is what appears to be a retired model.
Dozer Valuations: $2,200,200, $1,400,000, $850,000.
Articulated Trucks.
11-12.) CAT 740 (unknown new or used) $600,000, $350,000, $150,000.
These trucks are, again, top of the line. I am seeing a trend. But the 2003-2004s were in the 150k to 200k range, while the $350k was the 2004-2008 range.
Articulated Truck Valuation- $1,200,000, $700,000, $300,000.
Loaders:
13.)Terex 400-2XL (used) $250,000, $150,000, $85,000
14.)Cat 966 $400,000, 200,000, 100,000
15.)Cat 950 $250,000, 150,000, 100,000.
16.) Chinese 340 $150,000 80,000, 40,000
Again the Terex and Cat966 are both studs in their respective posts. It was hard pinpointing pricing in this section though for some reason. I was mainly in the 2004-2006 year range when it came to finding actual pricing.
Loader Valuation- $1,050,000, $$580,000, $325,000.
Utility trucks.
17.) ford f-450 $40,000 $25,000 $15,000
Ford Bronco- Priceless
18.) International Water Truck- $100,000, $25,000, $15,000
19.) Ford f-150 $30,000, 20,000, $10,000.
I didnt realize the diversity of Water Trucks or the wide spread in pricing, so I had to wing it as quotes were plentiful. And its likely the Ford Bronco now has James Bond-like capability covering the hull, so a proper valuation couldnt be placed.
Utility Truck Valuation- $170,000, $70,000, $40,000.
Separators:
Thunderbird custom valuation was near impossible to figure out. There are a bajillion types of mag separators too. My WAG is $250,00, $150,000, $75000.
The Powerscreen equipment pieces were valued at over $1,500,000 in the PRs. I believe these pieces to be new purchases at the time. They would likely include the Two 2100s, The XL400, The 1400, and the 800. There is a possibility one of these pieces was added after the initial $1,500,000, so the high end valuation will include this possibility. i found some newer used 2100s for over 200k, 1400s for 175 and up, but it is unecesary as we have the likely valuation from the PR.
Items 21, 22, 24, 25, 26 Valuation $2,000,000, $1,600,000, 1,300,000.
23.) Powerscreen 830 (rebuilt trommel) there were some trashed versions at $100k to $180k, and again this equipment is at the high end of the quality spectrum, in terms of the specs as well as the durability and cosmetic, etc. it isnt new however Valuation-$600,000, $400,000, $250,000.
So I think that wraps it up. Again this is just my interpretation of what current potential market valuations would be. I strongly feel our equipment is better than the vast majority if available equipment within similar price ranges...it was VERY noticeable. A positive takeaway for sure. So the totals for all equipment end up being:
Very High End Estimate: $9,720,000
Very Low End Estimate:$4,250,000
My Wild Azz Guess:$7,025,000
So there ya have it Longs. Again theres potential for a slight downward surprise, as well as potential for a moderate upsize surprise from my WAG. It gives us something to work off of anywho. And given the profitability of the industry, and the potential revenue we have already seen, these look like reasonable numbers, IMO.
Trommel production calculations.
Operationally things are lining up and steadily improving-notwithstanding govt permit games which are now partially over as per 6-25-12 PR.
They are hopefully working toward some type of uplisting as noted by the May 2011 PR-at least to OTCQB (May 2011 PR),where we can escape these otc/dtc/broker games and some of mm games -all of which have blocked market forces-delayed by games by opportunisitc politically motivated players taking advantage of the no shares issued no gain March 2010 promo.
Look at Jan 2011 chart to see what can happen w pps-rose 85%/day when market forces kick in- that could repeat because this is the most undervalued stock due to all these games that anybody has been able to find in last 2 years of my challenge.
Getting posted financials will help -many have been waiting for such before buying and financials will help remove broker restrictions. If we are really lucky when website updating is done they will post financials on website.
The 2 major reasons for not posting have run out of time-most likely SOP NDA w Bao-but last 2 PR's of 4-13 -12 and 6-25-12 have let Bao involvement out of the bag
and auditor marionthis-see his Dec posts- said they could not record revenues until Bao had physical possession of the ore at port-which Bao achieved June 10-13 for "43829 metric tons"(June 25 PR)
website was ok for a startup- had been as it was ever since I first saw it late 2009 I believe and production began probably Sept 2010 w Nov 2010 PR announcement of full production Nov 5 2010-but was due for updating.
From the Apr 13 PR
Other noteworthy news: the Company has contracted PowerScreen of California to build a heavy-duty 8ft x 30ft x 0.05mm cylindrical Trommel screening plant capable of screening out the small iron chips accumulated since the project went into production in November 2010. This equipment should be on-site and ready to begin processing a shipload of sinter fines within the next couple weeks. The balance of iron minerals less than 0.05mm in size shall be sold into the organic mineral fertilizer industry.
The June 25 PR also mentioned this
As CWRN posted sometime ago Bob had estimated 35-40% of the 200k tons of 0-1mm to be processed by trommel was iron chips-which would be ca 75k tons (37.5%).
I had posted an independent article a long time ago which indicated sinter fines brought a price ca 85% of the larger iron product.
The 0-1mm have already been through the regular magnetic separator to remove dirt etc, but go again thru a magnetic separator as we have seen here apparently to remove small particles of dirt missed by the regular separator or which was ensconced in the chips etc.
bingo said -see his 9-08-12 post that fert was worth 3 times the regular iron -which had a record recent low of 87/ton in Sept 2012
So I would agree the trommel is a money maker.
Also shows continued maturation of the mine. Until they had revenues from the 1st ship they had to concentrate on and just process the main product-then 3-18mm.
Then w 1st ship revenue they bought expensive processing machinery (April-May 2011 PR'S) so they could process the 1-3mm fines in 1 pass=-the Powerscreen 2100 etc.
w 2nd ship revenue bought cat 8's and cat 365 and 375 excavators etc
w payment for orders 4 and 5 in Dec they bought the trommel,the terex 400 used to load the trommel etc and other equipment including 2 cat 330 excavators.
Now processing the waste of the waste with the trommel- not too many industries/enterprises achieve that kind of income from the waste of the waste-which greatly reduces CWRN's cost of production.
As noted from independent articles some jr miners have a negative cost of production because the extra income from the premium ore ($5/ton for every % over the 62% benchmark) exceeds their cost of production.
38524 tons Kriton plus 36002 tons Loreto plus an additional 80k tons (so 154526 tons for that total) that we know of paid for (43829 tons of that shipped to Bao June 13 as per June 25 PR). (ship manifests vary by a few tons)
Most juniors have cost of production (that does not include shipping and trucking) of less than 25/ton.
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