is... a buy and hold investor of dividend US and Canadian stocks
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Good point. maybe he walked. After all, those guys have to stay in shape...
No, I did not ask. When you are Canadian on foreign soil you do not upset big burly security guards that may be armed. And I would say nothing about his MOM.
I did not get inside, but there was nothing going on. No cars anywhere... If the parts for units 2 and 4 are sitting in the front yard, and unit #1 is built, how can there be anything going on?
And this is to a place you can walk to. No public transit... there would have had to be cars...
I got time these days. Let JB know that I would be into a tour and I will be very objective. But I would question him on his current "on-stream" date and what he expects to have in place when he gets there. I will question him on the $10/barrel cost as well. He will not be able to bullshit me. But then again I am not Janice Shell... not out to get him.. I was the one who said that Janice Shell should refer to him as a CEO.
If someone had been there I would have introduced myself and asked to go inside.
Maybe they would even have recognized me from my picture, who knows?
well the only person there was a security guard, and he had handcuffs. Could not see a weapon, but maybe he had one. Also had a Buffalo Police shirt on. I assume he was supposed to keep people out... not let them in to look around.
I could not really take pictures either... there was no place to do that other than right in front of the security guard. The rest of the place is overgrown... hardly a hub of frantic activity.
I noticed there were railway tracks nearby, quite close actually...
if JB was such a hardworking guy and they were trying to get this thing up and running one would expect activity at 5:45 PM.
Besides, construction sites usually run 2 shifts if not 3 (again, to get it DONE).
well I hope so... for everybody's sake... just telling it like I saw it...
I myself personally stopped by the blending plant in recent days. I then went across the border and spoke briefly with the big burly security guard at the P2O plant. I have a somewhat different view than tech. It is interesting that these two events took place so close together.
Mainly, I see inactivity and no sense of urgency. Furthermore, it is proceeding in an exploratory fashion and not like a construction project. In construction there are 3 areas of concentration - Estimating, Cost (Money), and Schedule (Time). Estimating = planning it out right. It appears as if this has not been done, which is typical of Private Sector small companies. The other two are Time and Money, both critical resources. Which is more important? There is an expression.. Time IS Money.
First of all, the blending plant.
Did not look like it was in use at all. The blending site's buildings are decrepit. What can't be seen from the road is the junk on the veranda at the back of the building on the right. It is chock full of an old barbecue, an old bed or sofa, and lots of rotting furniture. Does not look like an operational plant.
Can't tell what is in the buildings.
The blending site looks like something out of High Plains Drifter. I did not like the fact that the piping was painted all white, and then some brown. Looks like they ran out of white. Places where I have worked, piping is color-coded according to what is contained in it. That way you can identify what contains oxygen, water, whatever. Makes everything safer. it helps to identify systems and is easier and safer to perform work on the piping.
I saw no evidence of that. Looks like it was painted for effect, to impress. The word "Diesel" is clearly stenciled on the sides of the tanks. That does not appear right to me, although I could be wrong about that... tanks would have a unique number or something, but what would the purpose be of labeling them "Diesel"??? The yellow bollards are a nice touch, and the Yellow stairways are accurate and correct.
lastly, brown is a stupid color. Why would they choose brown? How does that relate to what is inside the pipes? It is not a sewage plant...
As for the P2O plant, What i thought are the parts for the next 2 processors are sitting in the front yard. Plus alot of other stuff. It does not look like a construction site. Nothing going on. I was there at 5:45. I would have at least thought there would be a few cars there. Only a security guard. And I thought the parts on the front lawn were destined for the second and third processors, which were supposed to be done by now... I thought.
At any rate, I would have expected that the first 3 processors would have been finished, in which case there would be nothing lying around, or that things would be under construction, which would mean that the site would be neat and tidy, and that you may have a layout yard in the front where they would store the piping, etc, again neat and tidy. A layout yard is where they lay piping out prior to construction. It is where they "shake it out". That is another term for where they separate all the pipes so they know what is what.
Gives me the impression the second and third processors are not constructed. Not even ready to construct. Construction should only take a couple of months... what is the issue? The critical path would be the Procurement of the drums followed by the construction itself the whole thing should take maybe 4-5 months... Time is money, why is this proceeding in such a piecemeal fashion?
Here is the thing. I would have thought that they would have to be ready to go in January at the latest. If that is the case, the construction would have to be finished by now. So how can they be ready to go in January? And why are they still tweaking the process? You don't delay construction until you get your permits. You don't tweak the process until you get the permit. You build the plant and the permit is applied for as part of the overall plan in good time according to the guidelines publicly available. So none of this inactivity should be really acceptable to shareholders. There is no excuse for this.
Finally, I would give him until January before he is out of money... isn't that the reality? Isn't there some urgency here because of this?
But, TechisBest went to the plant and got shown around inside. So if he is happy, and the shareholders and readers of this board are happy.... great. Be happy then. Just voicing my thoughts...
I think that actually JB is a front for Clint Eastwood and this is his latest project. The town has been painted Red (or White and Brown in this case) and JB (Clint) has left town. The investors are left to defend the town against the coming Attack from the Bad Guys, or is it a Raid from the B.. (you can finish the sentence, at least 2 words come to mind).
are you sure it is not "up the street"? In other words, on the same side of Allanport? across the abandoned lot... 3 driveways up.
address on website = 1783 Allanport
blending site = 1793 Allanport
minor, but seems wrong, and this has been quoted several times on this board.
This is a "comfort zone" thing again right? What evidence of activity have you seen from the company lately that assists you with maintaining your comfort zone? They are no longer in their old corporate offices... their office is the new blending plant... or the P2O site, take your pick... neither of them seems to be able to hold the tape equipment.
it does not concern you that there are no signs of activity other than the blending site (which looks like the painted town from High Plains Drifter - what a movie!!!)...
and where is JB himself these days??
that is not very nice. Don't you think this is of concern to shareholders? After all, the web site says that the new office is basically the blending plant... where is the equipment? If we don't know where it is... someone could say.. they will process tapes again... WPF!!!!!
does anybody know where all of he tape equipment is? That is alot of stuff... From what I understand JBI has moved out of their old offices... what did he do with all of that old tape business stuff? He must have it somewhere if he intends to return to that business some day. Anybody know???
do we have any definitive information on the status of processors #2 and #3 destined for the P2O site? Just wondering...
The main problem is that I just can't believe the cost numbers and revenue numbers. I am in agreement with Paper Prophet on that. If JB can do what he says he can do... he may succeed. If it relies on that catalyst... well I would not have the knowledge of chemistry to tell. Paper knows more than I do about that.
I only invest in sectors where I have some knowledge to bring to the table, if that helps. I need to be able to see through the financials, to understand the difference between legal disclaimers, false positive information, and real opportunity.
The main worrying thing right now is the timeline. The clock is ticking.
and this permit business is not being handled well...
but he may succeed... and i would like to see someone do something about plastic. that would be great.
THe fact that it has been posted on a SMB that there is no cost for feedstock does not make it a fact.
Personally, I think the most reliable figure is the figure of .50 from that CNBC special on the uses of plastic. If I could I would go back and listen to the whole thing to find out how much that was for... probably a pound.
My conclusion from the whole discussion about feedstock is that they will have to use clean shredded plastic, and that they will have to pay for it.
It is a minor cost item anyway. IMO... way too much discussion about it.
I thought you would comment on the validity of what I was saying. Oh well, to each their own. You would perfer to invest based on an analysis that ignores any cost not directly related to product and applies all of the resulting profits to the EPS, thus making you feel comfortable.
It is a novel approach, but no not mine. I like to locate stocks by setting strict financial parameters using Stock Screeners. I have found that to be the best approach. If one of them says they can clean up the world, that is great too!!! In the meantime I am comfortable with the best financial parameters..
But to each their own...
What say we choose a Battlefield server and have it out online? Pro vs. con. I think that would be fun and take a good deal of the angst away.
Who cares about comfort zone?
People want to know whether or not they will be profitable, not in feeling like they are in a "comfort zone". Your analysis below does not include Indirect Cost, which is relevant to the EPS, if you want to be relevant... do you know the difference between DIrect, Indirect, Variable, and Fixed Cost?
Tell you what, take that analysis and add $1M/quarter in Indirect Cost. That is a lump sum figure for costs not related to product. If you look at their last financials that is what they are burning per quarter. They used the word "recurring", which means the bulk of it is salary, etc, that will be there after they start generating product. Some if it will likely be redirected to Product Cost.
So repeat the analysis below with another Fixed Cost of $1M/quarter. Then try it for 750k and 500k and get back to us. I think the term for that is CVP analysis (Cost-Volume-Profit). Then you will have something worthwhile... You may even find a break-even point.
I think right now we are talking about realistically no production until next year with 3 processors in NY, and that is assuming they can get them assembled and working in time... a tall order I would say...
I look forward to the result!!!
Me, I am too busy fighting the bad guys in a rousing afternoon of Battlefield II. The best FPS (First-Person-Shooter) game on the planet. Look for The Big Guy online!!! I usually play the Road to Jalalabad and City maps.!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"wiggle room"? no, it is an estimate that ignores some basic facts and is biased strongly to the positive. Wiggle implies it could go either way. It can't.
It only includes Direct Costs. that makes it not even in the ball park...
we can argue forever about the $15./barrel cost and the revenue.. we have done that.. but at least include Indirect Costs.
To be very specific... it does not the 1M quarter that were mentioned as recurring quarterly costs in the last set of financials.
In the business of estimating, any initial estimate is going to be biased to be lower than reality. That is why no one should have taken jB seriously when he provided that figure of $10/dollar. Not sure what people were thinking here...
OK, so you are increasing the revenue per barrel because of the blending site.. i didn't get that.. OK>
Yes. What a BRUTAL set of financials to say that... stay away...
LOOK OUT BELOW!!!
It is very easy to create a very positive outlook based on unrealistic numbers. I believe $15/barrel for cost is unrealistic.
Whatever... but look at what else you are doing...
You are assuming an EPS of .0163/processor that is clearly based only on the cost/barrel to manufacture the fuel. You are missing the Indirect cost (all the other costs, salaries, etc...). I have posted before that looking at it from an ROI approach, each processor, at a capital cost of 1M-1.5M, needs to generate 800k in Profits just to make an acceptable ROI. Then the business s a whole has to be profitable, so factor in the Indirect.
You are also stringing together 2 incredible parameters; low cost of production, and a P/E of 100.... that is to put the cart before the horse. The P/E has to be justified with Earnings.
The only way a P/ is going to be at 100 is in the very early stages, when a company is conceptual and investors get carried away. Last year when the PPS was at 7.00, the P/E was over 2000!!! This stock has been promoted heavily and not delivered. Those investors who were susceptible to that have already taken their turn at the slots.
It is doubtful the best promotional campaign in the world will get the stock back to those heights. Lightning and penny stock success do not strike twice. Besides which, where will he get the money to launch a promotional campaign...??
I am not twisting. Did you ever notice that anything negative in company information should be multiplied by a factor of 10 to resemble the reality? Until of course they have to do something drastic... then it is too late for investors to do anything about it. Once a company starts talking about conserving cash it is pretty much over. The burn rate has been published (by the company) at 1M/quarter, and they only had 2M in the bank. I would say given these delays, this is pretty much it, if we are looking at next year for production to begin.
And what I am saying about debt financing is true. No bank would touch them. Only recourse is shareholders... another PP.
Is the cost of a barrel of crude not in the low 80's??
1 Ton ==> maybe $500.
suddenly we are up to 24T from 20T?
good dd. From the posts you just put up. Thanks.
(Note: It is typical for loyal investors not to know a company is in trouble until they issue that final PR - how they are going to deal with it. JBI is a ways away from that. It could be a year).
In the meantime, I suspect another PP will be necessary. at a much lower PPS.
NAME ONE ALTERNATIVE GREEN ENERGY SOURCE THAT ISN'T....
in "Trouble".
so they are already in trouble, is that what you are saying? what financial institution is going to lend them money? They have no INCOME or CASH FLOW. Their one supposed money-making business, the tape business, which if any banker had been listening to them a year ago was supposed to make oodles of money, is producing zero. This in itself is bad enough for those conservative bankers...
Credit? Fat chance.
aaahhh.... maybe not. what if that clause was interpreted to mean "all necessary permits"... then JB is pooched. That would be in concert with the flawed thinking at work here. If he equates permitting with profitability ( a naive assumption), and also naively assumed that all he needed was an Air Permit, then according to his logic he cannot collect yet. He has now learned that he needs a SW permit!!!
ah the joys of being "between contracts"...
sounds cool, can you provide a link? I am not a FB guy..
they have no "capital". THey have limited "cash"... how can they buy back shares? At a 1M/quarter burn rate.... can they really even wait until next year to begin production?
look for another round of financing as the next major event for JBII!!! at .50 if all goes well.
I did a "Gilligan's Island" theme once on Yahoo. It did not persist.... 3 castaways (Stooges) stuck on a Desert Isle (Yahoo SMB).... and then the other Mods the Professor, Marian, Gilligan... etc... named all the mods...
from Seinfeld:
"George is gettin' frustrated"...!! ditto for all JBII investors right about now...
how do you know there are some planned for the blending site?
this was your post:
<My point was, if there is not an issue with the plastic at its origin(the supplier), why would there be an issue when its trucked to another building(JBI)? Maybe JBI does need additional permits, don't know, don't care. I am sure they will get whatever they are told to get. >
My response:
<what makes you think there is not an issue with industrial plastic at it's origin? I bet the originator of that plastic has permits up his/ her yin/ yang>
of course i don't know what the issues are with "industrial plastic".... i bet all kinds, and that is the challenge for jBI. They must know exactly the composition of their feedstock in order to be able to handle it... if they use a generic term like "industrial plastic" in their application that would mean everything....
any way my expertise/ guesswork ends there..
funnily enough, I have never seen anybody work out the cost of that. it is certainly not free. It is even mentioned in that plastic video that we discussed way back, that CNBC special. They mentioned the cost as .50 for some unit, maybe a pound?
If it is processed and clean, it can't be free... and is a small part of overall cost anyway...
what makes you think there is not an issue with industrial plastic at it's origin? I bet the originator of that plastic has permits up his/ her yin/ yang.
right... the same issue exists here if the plastic is not handled properly.
Nah? You agree the basic point of any document, process, certification, license, permit or other granted by the DEC in Canada or the US is to prevent environmental harm, correct?
well, if you agree, then it is NOT the manner that the waste is used. Likewise an operator of a nuclear plant is NOT concerned with making money or generating power. He Controls and Cools the reactor. Could care less about output.
This is what an environmentally conscious, safe environment is all about.
In order to get a BUD JBI must prove that they will not pollute. The only way they can do that is to have a process that does not pollute. The only way I can think of to do that is make it totally JIT. Not likely.
Finally, I don't know why you question my experience. Why bother? From what I understand you have even done considerable research on my background..
FYI
- I worked on Water Treatment projects for 1.5 years.
- I have 2 years at least of work experience in the nuclear industry, including plant experience.
You seem to imply that I am not being truthful and am maybe getting notes from people or representing a team. Not. Your list of my expertise is fairly accurate, except you are missing Process Industries, Telecommunications, Transportation, and automotive.
BIG - I am not going to pretend to understand what kind of feedstock JBII needs. I cannot follow all of the discussion and as I have posted before it is a minor issue in terms of cost. The real cost is in exactly the kinds of issues we are talking about right now - Solid Waste Management being one.
If there is discussion about a BUD or a SW permit, then there is an issue. I would think that if they were getting plastic that is certified clean there would not be an issue, but that that would be expensive plastic. So, I assume they are getting dirty plastic..
Now how can you say there are no contaminants? Of course there are. If rainwater coming off of a mine site is such a concern, then for sure industrial plastic is a huge concern.
My comment about landfills was just stating a logical fact: if plastic is destined for a landfill and diverted to JBI, then one must assume that the same environmental concerns for landfills must apply. I was watching a television show some time back, actually the one on plastic that we all talked about here, and it stated that all landfills in the US require a liner... so obviously there is an issue with industrial plastic.
Those supplying the waste are not managing waste, and frankly I don't care what permits they require. If JBI is inventorying waste plastic then they would need an SW permit. I can't imagine what they would do to get a BUD, but I would think it would hurt their productivity and throughput.
I work in a Waste Management environment now. We pay external companies big bucks to dispose of various wastes... nuclear contaminated, Likely Clean, etc... those facilities have permits up the yin yang... Ultimately jBI is disposing of this stuff... they are responsible for it when it hits their property.
not likely... just watch the drama unfold... pure chaos.. remember that character that used a child and pretended he was the father to get a lifeboat in the movie.... ?... anything goes..
IMO a Solid Waste Management permit would be far more complex than an Air Permit to get. All the Air Permit is is proving that stack emissions are within allowable limits. A Solid Waste Permit is managing potentially harmful plastic waste. It would involve a facility (Building) with the right structure, perhaps ventilation systems.... and I would envision a need to inventory something like 100T of plastic for 3 processors....
or else one hell of a JIT system in order to get a BUD.
THey either have to use complete "clean" plastic (If this were the case they would not have a Solid Waste Issue in the first place), have a Solid Waste Management facility, or have such a good process that is totally JIT and not need Waste management, thereby allowing them the BUD.
Personally IMO I think they do have a Waste Management issue and will require a Waste Management Permit if they use unwashed raw plastic. Or they use clean plastic.... IMO I am guessing the BUD will not fly... but that is just my own opinion based on experience..
The BUD is essentially an exemption (meaning they don't need a Solid Waste Permit). But, they would have to prove to the DEC that they will not be harming the environment. THey hae to show a logistics approach that will result in zero contamination.... ie they can't just order plastic waste and say "dump it there"..
these things are also called Deviations, or Variances..
I don't think the process would have worked that way GWMAN. I think you are putting the best possible face on a situation where JBI did not consider some basics in terms of requirements up front. Perhaps if they had had some exploratory discussions like those other P2O companies did before deciding to proceed they would have seen this.
Actually I should have seen this because I have spent years in Waste Management environments working on Water (Sewage) and Wastewater Treatment projects and now in Nuclear Waste control. I can tell you one thing, it is an expensive business. The storage, control, and environmental management of whatever the feedstock for JBI is is a cost item that will certainly add to the quoted $10/barrel cost.
To begin with, there has been much discussion about JBI as an alternative to landfills. Well, landfills are tightly regulated. I know for a fact they all have liners to prevent leaching. Liners cost money. Landfills need permits and are regulated. Therefore, if jBI is going to take waste that would otherwise go to a landfill they can't just have a pile, they have to have a controlled environment.
Nuclear waste management is a sinkhole of government money for every country that utilizes nuclear power. Hugely expensive...
Now as a comparative example, consider a mining operation and wastewater. Wastewater is water that MAY have contamination as a by-product of industrial activity. One project I worked on was to control (I forget how) flow of effluent into a local river. So, in practical terms anybody can understand, all this was was rainwater that landed on the site and flowed across the property into a local river, carrying with it sediment from the mining operation. The uninformed would think that the amounts in question are inconsequential... well they are not. I remember the allowable emission into this waterway and I was blown away. It was a figure in PPM (Parts per Million).
So here we have someone building a process that requires 20T of plastic per day. That is alot of plastic. If the feedstock is unsorted, unwashed plastic... well you have a contamination issue that must be dealt with.
With even a minimum of consideration JBI should have seen this coming. I am sorry, but this is total incompetence. IN FACT, THIS IS/ WAS MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE AIR PERMIT WE HAVE BEEN HEARING ABOUT. JB has always maintained that ALL HE NEEDS IS AN AIR PERMIT. Not true... he needs a Solid Waste Management Permit. Now, the BUD is an exemption... basically it means he does not need the Waste Permit after all. But this is after-the-fact. DEC would be giving hima break, and JBI must show that they will not pollute...
As for your explanation that this had to be tied to the allowable limit for air emissions? And working backward to discover there is a potential issue with waste plastic storage? No, that does not make sense. At 20T/day/ processor we are talking about alot of plastic in any case, so not likely.
What should have transpired here is an analysis of the profitability of a 3-processor installation at that site. That would result in an ROI. As a part of that the regulatory requirements regarding waste storage would have been discussed (with the DEC) and revealed. This issue should have come up. A Waste Management plan should have been devised and factored into the cost.
To say that a company applies for a permit, and as a result of the allowable emissions, designs their process to suit is illogical. They need to scale the operation for success first, then get a permit that matches that need.
Waste Management is a huge issue that should have been considered...
They may or may not get that BUD. They will not get the BUD if they are going to harm the environment, and they need 20T/day, that is quite a logistical challenge if they want to be totally JIT (Just-In-Time)..!!!
<but have you noticed that hardly anybody is selling??????????????>
curious what exactly you mean by that. We are down .08 on over 100k shares... ho can "hardly anybody" be selling?