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""As of March 30, 2006, the registrant had 90,620,306 shares of common stock, par
value $0.001 per share, outstanding.
----------------------------------------------------------------
The number of shares outstanding of the Issuer's common stock, as of May 10,
2006, 128,194,806""
An increase of 38 million shares in 40 days. Nice little piggy bank for the insiders that bought at .01 imo.
Vic
"More Appropriately for the board Why is Physic not IGNORE?"
He is for me! Along with several others that garbage up the board with nervous nellie handholding needs.
Vic
Euddoggwyn,
My bad, you have nothing to clarify to me or anyone else imho. Your DD is top notch and I hope you keep up the good work on anything new you may uncover.
I disagree about new reports being mis-interpreted. No news causes sell-offs/buying oppty's and new news runs it up again in 9 of 10 times. The exception being buyout changed to merger news.
No news sell off = buying oppty 90% of the time.
Vic
Euddoggwyn, you have done excellent DD and I thank you for your efforts. Now that I see the NASD links to insider 144's please disregard my previous post to you.
And keep up the good work! ;)
Thanks again,
Vic
Jagman, Thanks for the link. My apologies to everyone that I doubted. I don't understand why it is not showing up in the full sec filings for ndol. But I trust the nasdaq website and assume it is all on the up and up.
I noticed the form 144's are the legal notification to sell but not actual sales. Form 4 would be filed for an actual sale...so no shares have been sold yet.
They're probably waiting for 2+ imho but wanted to be legally ready to take a little off the table on a big run-up.
Vic
Countmein, good luck 'cause it sure ain't in the SEC filings.
http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=bio+tracking&CIK=&filenum=&State=&SI...
Euddoggwyn, impressive research...maybe.
You stated in msg# 5483:
"There seems to have been two individuals - - DOMENICA RENDA and MICHELINE GALLO who filed with the SEC to sell large blocks of shares just prior to a run-up from the 50's to $1.50's in late April early May after which it has fallen again. i would appreciate any DD on these individuals. Micheline Gallo seems involved with cosmetics in Montreal (I don't know) and women's business groups. Domenica Renda, I have no idea. At least they filed legally . . "
Try as I might, I couldn't find the SEC filings for DOMENICA RENDA and MICHELINE GALLO to sell "large blocks" of stock just before the run-up. How much is a large block? Could you be more share specific?
Help me out here and provide a link or advice on how to find that info?
I have a feeling you won't be able to answer this query because I think it's BS. My sincere apology if you provide proof.
TIA,
Vic
Hihosilver, I see this is your first post ever on Ihub...welcome aboard!
I don't know what "so much dilution" you're referring to. The company needs to raise an initial 4 to 5 mil to drill 3 wells to start. That could be in the form of LT debt or an equity placement of 5 million shares or less. A little dilution, maybe, but hardly a lot.
Let's say that CWYR ends up with an o/s of 30 million shares in the next 2 years and proves up 20 million bbls of oil. At $20 a bbl in the ground that would be 400/30=13.33 per share.
No wonder the CEO said he likes the odds!
I never followed EYTC. Looking at the news it looks like fraud and under the table bribes were being done. If many investors were involved in both stocks it would explain some of the weakness here. CWYR has NOTHING to do with EYTC and the two should not be compared.
CWYR is a fully reporting company subject to Sarbanes-Oxley and has never done anything that hints of impropriety. The only issue I would hold against them is that they move to slow.
They hit 2 successful wells a year ago that will provide operating income after payout to the driller. They really should have ramped up financing/drilling program faster imho.
In spite of that, I believe patience will be greatly rewarded here.
Vic
Another bad day in the energy sector for many stocks.
The important thing to remember is to buy on weakness and sell into strength. With India, China and other countries growing like crazy it's a no brainer that energy stocks will be the place to be for the next several years.
We have here a little company with a small float and o/s with a LOT of 3D identified reserves in the vicintity of a 150 million barrel field. (Lisbon).
This is not rocket science. Put 2 and 2 together and see what you come up with.
Buying large at these levels and below. I just can't pass up buying oil for .85 per barrel in the ground.
Vic
Accumulation phase for next 3 months has begun. Q2 earnings will be 14mil+.
If we're lucky we'll get lower prices to load up at in the meantime. I bought 10k today at .68 to get started and will build that to 100k+ by 8/10/06. A breach of 200dma and drop to low .60's high .50's would be ideal during that time.
With 33% owned Global Energy selling off recently and low NG prices their is a good chance to get cheap shares imho.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GED.L&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
GED trades in Pence. 1 pence = 1.85 pennies.
GED last of 219 pence = USD 4.05
HEC owns 11.9 million shares of GED = $48.2 million in value. (only carried on the books at .70 or 8.33 mil). So there is 40 mil potential value to unleash in the future.
Joyce, that is standard boilerplate for startup co's like CWYR.
They could have stayed on the pinks and never come clean about statements like that but they chose to lay it all out on the line. WHY? Because they're sitting on a ton of reserves, THAT'S WHY!
I know this has been a long road for many of us including me. I am long well over 100k shs and still buying at these levels.
This company is NOT about retail like you and me. It is all about building up reserves and marketing that to smart money.
When this puppy skyrockets to 8+ don't say I didn't tell you.
The move will be fast and sudden and sellers will rue the day they sold .
Just so you know, I was a MM for 25 years and know the real deal when I see it.
The public's ignorance is our bliss. Buy on weakness and sell (a little) into strength.
Jmho, but I'm pretty good at this stuff.
Vic
I'm bored. Mkt sux and I'm sitting on a pile of cash from selling off some real estate. I'm going to bid for 10k AURC every penny down to .25 and then 20k every penny down to .20 and then 40k every penny down to .15 etc...
Or maybe just buy a few hundred k this week!!
The LT debt was always a joke to me. The mineral rights have ALWAYS belonged to the gov't. The offsetting entry recognizing that fact gave SOME people a braincramp. If you look at the financials and see LT debt dropped 200 mil in 1 year you would have figured that out immediately. Like DUH and NO interest on that debt? How plain can it be???? It's embarrasing that Parkin even has to spell it out imho.
AURC has a decade of mining rights with very favorable tax laws on their side. A LOT of money will be made in those 10 years. Probably 20 year renewal beyond that.
Do NOT over analyze this. It's a gift if you choose to accept it imho.
Best to all,
Vic
Q2 early est. based on new guidance.
Hedged:
2.1 bcf @ 8 = 16.8 mil
45 mbbls @ 55 = 2.5
Unhedged:
1.2 bcf @ 7 = 8.4
380 mbbls @ 60 = 22.8
Total revenues = 50.5 mil
Lease expense = 6.8
G&A = 2.3
DD&A = 16.0
Int exp = 3.8
Accretion = 1.5
Total expenses = 30.4
Pretax income = 20.1
Income tax = 7.0
Income berfore spar = 13.1
Spar income net of tax = .5
Net Income = $13.6 mil
Per share basic = .70
Diluted = .64
Basic shs = 19.4
Diluted = 21.3
10Q out today. Reiterates a lot of 3D seismic prospects to drill.
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/060515/cwyr.ob10qsb.html
Guidance lowered to 62-65 mmcfe/d for q2. New eps estimate will be made prior. Good luck,
Vic
Joyce, You should add CWYR's web address to the IBOX above.
TIA, Vic
http://www.coloradowyomingreserve.com/
3D seismic identified 20 million bbls net, low float, virtually no debt, hard to believe this isn't a lot higher already. It will be when more people realize the huge potential here. If only 1/2 the 3D targets hit it's a $10 stock. That kind of risk/reward won't go un-noticed forever.
The only TA I ever learned was from a guy named Joseph Granville. He's the one that invented OBV, On Balance Volume, in the 60's. I consider him the father of modern TA. That and personal experience from 20 years as a specialist. I left because I found I could do just as well at home without all the stress of hyper-trading on the floor.
You are right on both counts. Some trades are scalped by the MM for the .005 to .01 spread...others are allowed to match up the buyer and seller directly.
No. My name is Vic and I thought the handle sounded cool. I'm really more of an investor than trader though. "investorvic" just doesn't sound right to me, lol!
I was an exchange floor specialist, not an otc MM. Much higher standards on the exchange with display rules and limit order protection.
From my conversations with MM's...I know a few, a lot of the volume otc is duplicated and real volume is often closer to 1/2 the stated volume. If MM A sells to MM B they sometimes both report the trade. Also there is flow through volume whereas an MM will have multiple bids in the book and receive a big sell order. He'll buy it right away in his own account and then sell it to the various orders in the book.
ie: Have 5 orders to buy 100k at .23, he'll show a bid of .225.
If 100k comes in to sell he buys it at .225 and then fill the 100k at .23. 200k hits the tape but only 100k really changed hands. This is called a "contemporaneus trade" and is legal for pinks and otcbb under current rules. From the otcbb site:
"Contemporaneous trades
A member that trades through a held limit order must execute such limit order contemporaneously, or as soon as practicable, but in no case later than five minutes after the member has traded at a price more favorable than the customer's price."
http://www.otcbb.com/aboutOTCBB/servicerules.stm#6541
Also add in the volume of daytraders that may buy and sell hundreds of thousands of shares but end the day with the same position they started with and you can see that a "hot" stock can easily be turning over a small % of the float several times a day to create large volume. Some hot stocks have turned over MORE than their entire float in 1 trading day.
JMHO, but the selling was triggered by the 4 bil LT debt that people don't understand. Whether it was listed as audited or unaudited didn't matter imo. The number freaked out the un-imformed.
Their ignorance is my bliss.
I put in a chunk to buy at .23 4 min before the close and was totally ignored and traded through. Very frustrating.
Maybe if I'm lucky I'll get it cheaper tomorrow. One can only hope! ;)
Cent,
Cash sitting in a Canadian account in Canadian dollars would be a benefit if the USD continues to decline vs CAD.
However, when owning stocks that are listed in both countries you're better off owning the one with the WEAKER currency.
Example: XYZ trading at 1.00 CAD is = to .90 USD.
If the CAD strengthens from .90 USD to 1.00 USD then XYZ could stay unchanged at 1.00 in Canada but the US version would rise from .90 to 1.00 on the conversion.
On the other hand, the CAD proceeds could always be converted into .10 more dollars so it's kind of a wash.
Bottom line for me: Trade whichever version has the most liquidity and volume.
All imho, Vic
No, they are not drilling yet. A spud date would have been announced if they were. According to the presentation they will raise funds for drilling several wells and 3d shoot significant more acreage (64000 acres/100 sq miles).
There is no way for me to know the timing of that. All I know is what they have is worth a lot more than $2 undrilled imo. Imho they could sell the current prospects for 3+ if they wanted to.
Gravy,
You're way too hyper dude. Ignore for you.
The sell off here is related to no BB listing by 5/1/06 imho.
I have a friend that took his co. from pk to bb and it took 2 months longer than he expected.
The NASD or the SEC would send him "clarification" forms as to the co. filings. Eventually he got listed on the BB but it was a drawn out process.
Long story short...the pps took a temp hit and quickly rebounded after BB was approved.
Any hit here is a BUYING oppty imho.
Jmho, but I'm pretty good at this stuff.
Sometimes_right,
I'm jealous...I'm only up 700% here.
HF, if you use all caps again you will be on permanent ignore.
Too hard on my eyes.
A lot higher than now!
Let's see, 180 mil revenues, 120 mil operating profit, 50 to 60 mil net income...about .50 per share.
How does $5 a share sound for starters?
It won't be high cost. Only 20% of the reserves are high cost. 80% is low cost Placer and Ore deposits. They will easily clear over 400 an ounce profit on that 80% with gold above 600.
Funny no one mentioned the most important thing (imho) in the financials. Accounts payable increased by 6 mil.Then look at cash flows and you'll see the purchase of capital assets for 6 mil.
If someone lent 6 mil to AURC so they could buy something, that shows me they are confident in the co's value and ability to repay.
It also appears that production will be ramping up soon imo.
People need to realize AURC is a development stage co. If they were a scam they would NEVER put out a balance sheet that shows negative shareholder equity. They would just keep issuing fluff PR's.
It's obvious to me that they are positioning for an otcbb listing.
When they have the first full year of 300,000+ oz of gold production I wonder where the pps will be then?
The drill bit will be the final arbitrar, but if Tiger hits we're looking at 8.00 stock.
As John Paul Getty once said: "The secret to success is to work hard and hit oil".
Joyce, the MOST important thing in the last PR is this:
"The Shoot covering some of the acquired 6,000 acres shows a geological similarity to the Lisbon field, 8 miles away. The Lisbon field has produced over 150 million barrels of oil equivalent since its discovery in 1960."
That's some serious Hydrocarbons in the area and sure gets me excited!
Joyce,
Looking at the 10K, there is only 10.8 mln shs o/s. Of that 7.5 is tightly held. From the 10K:
Number of Percentage
Name and Address Shares(a) Beneficially Owned (b)
------------------------------------------ ----------- ----------------------
Kim M. Fuerst............................. 3,137,000(c) 26.6%
751 Horizon Court, Ste. 205
Grand Junction, Colorado 81506
Syed A. Daud.............................. 200,000(d) 1.8%
64 Hainsworth Ct.
Markham, Ontario L3S1T5
Canada
Rafiq A. Sayed............................ 1,200,000(e) 10.0%
102 Avenue of the Estates
Cary, North Carolina 27511
The James E. Moore Revocable Trust,....... 3,050,000(f) 27.8%
u/d/t dated July 28, 1994
21484 Paseo Portola St.
Malibu, California 90265 <<<
So that makes a float of only 3.3 mln shares. It doesn't take much to move the price up or down. With the recent filings and PR's, more and more savvy investors are taking notice imho.
$70 oil doesn't hurt either!
Trade2much, you're welcome. As you can see in the article I posted, the Russian mining industry is in the early stages of consolidation by the big boys. AURC is at the forefront of this move.
Trade2much, the taxation in the mining sector is very low compared to oil. Basically a 6% royalty and 24% income tax on net income.
"Taxation
The Russian gold sector is subject to relatively favourable taxation, at least if comparing to the Russian oil sector. In 2001 an export duty amounting to 5 percent was abolished. Today there remains a royalty of 6% on the gross sales value of the sold gold (the tax kicks in when the gold is actually sold – not before). In addition Russian gold producers pay a corporate profit tax of 24 percent of taxable profits and social charges on paid out salaries amounting to 38.5%. Further, there exist a few minor taxes that are also applied in other industries. These are the vehicle tax (calculated based on the engine capacity of the owned vehicle fleet and amounts to a maximum of 2% of the companies' revenues), a security tax amounting to a maximum of 2% of the companies' revenues (calculated based on the total salary costs in the companies given the total number of employees and the Russian minimum wage), a tax on waste amounting to a maximum of 2% of the companies' revenues (depends on the level of emissions), and a property tax (calculated as 2% of the net book value of the fixed assets). "
http://www.centralasiagold.se/english/default.asp?Pageid=302&id=3
About naked shorting...when I was an MM (actually a specialist on the floor, my competition being the other exchanges), we never thought of it as naked shorting. The reality is that 1 or 2 MM's might have the actual bulk of physical orders and everyone else trades off of them. ie: nite, ubss are .34/.35 5000x5000 and you (the MM) get an order to buy 50k at .35. You can pass it off to ubss or nite or execute it right away at .35 against their quote. Most times you just execute right away against the quote and wait for a sell order to come in to even you out. If a seller doesn't show up is where problems start...maybe. Eventually a buy-in notice will be issued by your firm to you and you buy whatever you need to get squared. If whoever you buy from has the same problem they have a few days or weeks to get THEIR buy-in notice. It's like a floating crap game where the buy-in notice keeps changing hands. Think of it like a balance transfer to multiple credit cards with 0% interest for the first 6 months. You can float the same debt for months on end.
Matched trades: there is no requirement to show an order on the pinks or the BB. Market can be .34/.35 and you get an order to buy 50k at .345. You can sit on that order and if a seller comes in for 50k you can execute at .34 and SIMULTANEOUSLY execute the buyer at .345. A 1 1/2% profit instantly with NO risk.
That's the SEC rules right now and there's not much you can do about it other than complain. (which I do a lot). The rules will eventually change in our favor (thanks to our complaints) but understand that it is all legal at the moment and just keep fighting for change.
Hetty, you know that HEC will show a loss in q1 right? Due to hurricane shutdowns and accounting treatment of GED, the HEC loss will be about 3 mil +- 1 mil imho.
On the other hand Q2 will show a profit of 12mil+ thanks to restoration of production and accounting for GED swinging into HEC's favor due to accounting treatment.
The bottom line being if HEC takes a hit after Q1 it could set up a buying oppty.
To those that are confused by 04 vs 05...pro-forma you always use the old assets that were acquired to make a proper comparison between old and new. ie: even though some assets were acquired in 05, they are incorporated in the 04 financials to make a correct comparison. The klyon assets will be in ADDITION to what is stated for 04/05.
As to the value of the assets...accounting rules dictate they be shown on the balance sheet at the LOWER of cost or appraised value. Whatever value is shown, in this case 4 bln+, is the LOWEST value they are allowed to state by accounting standards. It could easily be much higher.
For example:
I have another stock, Harken Energy, that holds 34% of a Colombian oil co, Global Energy, that they acquired for 70 cents a share. The Global stock is now about $5 a share but Harken still shows them at .70 on the balance sheet because that is the lower of cost or appraised value. Every time Harken sells any part of Global they immediately recognize a 600%+ gain on the difference between book value and the sales price. If you look at the income statements of HEC for the past 3 quarters you will see what I mean.
Note: Do NOT run out and buy HEC based on the above. I am 99% sure they will show a LOSS of 2+ mil in Q1 due to hurricane shut-downs and other accounting related issues. On the other hand, I am 99% sure they will show a 12 mil+ PROFIT in Q2 from the same accounting issues. IF they take a hit after Q1 is released it would then be a buying oppty imho.