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Dew, I was referring to the cautious comments by ML Analyst Rachel McMinn not too long ago. Bristol-Meyers must have long back started doing their homework while such analysts have been clueless. I bet lot of her clients are not happy now..
Looks like lot of INHX doubters have bitten the dust. half truth is always dangerous.
Lol..most of them have bitten the dust and none of them have the a marketing muscle backup in the scale as TSPT has (Purdue).
Keep shorting...good luck
For the exact same reasons quoted on this article, I have been pounding on the table for TSPT to go much higher once news from purdue starts rolling in...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/317088-transcept-s-intermezzo-a-blockbuster-in-the-making?source=yahoo
The key reason for the depressed prices for most of the early stage biotech's are tax loss selling. I expect strong resurgence (aka Jan effect), the tide that should lift them all....CLSN is a $20 stock come end of 2012...
The stock is on fire today Up on solid volume...setting up for nice to run to 10+ early next year.
Caymen Island tax shelter is not new anyway. And just as he may be selling, buying back even by 30k or 70k block will drive the prices once more higher Frequent selling & buying shows poor judgement unless he is trying to get out for good. I seriously doubt that...
Hey, biomanbaba, I won't call that dumping. Likely it's a tax loss selling but I bet Mr. August will buy back once the washout period is over. He knows there is not going to any 2nd interim look anytime soon.
If he indeed liquidates all of their CLSN holding, it will prove he is truly a cowboy and probably stuipid as well. He is too smart for not seeing the long term potential.
so is reddymade...lol..
So that's why TSPT went up by 5% today ?....LOL
So what's your point ? looks like you are short...have you seen the Purdue PR or weighed in on their $100 million investment ?
ONTY will do well as it broke the resistance band of 7.65 ~ 7.75 with very high volume...I am tracking a hedge fund called Ayer Capital that still owns sizable shares in ONTY and is a specialized firm investing in biotechs.
For TSPT, it's just that no immediate catalyst is in horizon; but we will hear more from Purdue on their launch progress. So keep an eye on their CC calls. I expect TSPT to be bought sometime next year assuming the launch goes as planned.
Just another guy who wants to get in low...I will go anytime with Purdue who not only decide to sink $100 mill but also were almost 1 week early to opt in...impressive to say the least...
If Purdue cannot pull off the launch, no one can, IMHO...The drug has very good potential and time will tell.
You bailed so soon ? Just because an insider sold bunch of shares ? Purdue would not have agreed to invest 100M if they don't see product launch success.
It could be many reasons why Mr. Singh sold...
That's why it's called 'automatic' and not direct...usually automatic sales and options are planned in advance with no reference to market timing.
Expect the PPS to be in low 10's soon then...
This is a $15 stock
If I may ask, what options are you in on ? TIA
Agree..it's like betting against a vegas house..the house always wins... joke aside, tdox as science has merit and it's likely that celsion will find a partner soon with conditional milestone payments based on 'successful' 2nd look and final data analysis with some upfront money to last until end of 2012. If we don't get a partnership by Q1 2012 or 2nd look event, dilution is certain.
Thanks for the details. I tried to search but guess didn't deep enough
Due to inventory reserves of older generation product ?
What ? It's like if a thief steals once, he is ok to steal more !
Now that we are kind of out of 'quiet' period, I expect insiders to scoop up shares before the year is over.
Found something interesting and this is exactly what might be happening with CLSN interim analysis strategy...that this interim look was almost at the boundary
Q. The study protocol requires first interim analysis to be based upon the data of 270 patients. The maximum sample size required (at final look) was set to 390. Due to good recruitment, not just 270 but in fact 280 patients will be available at the time of interim analysis. In this situation, how should one proceed? I could think of the following two possible options.
1. Perform statistical analysis with 270 patients as planned in the protocol, applying the adjusted significance level determined in the protocol based on the information fraction avaliable with 270.
2. Perform the first interim look with 280 patients, applying the recalculated significance level based on the information fraction available with 280 patients.
A. I am assuming that you have response data on all the 280 patients at the time of the first interim analysis. In that case, the proper procedure is to perform the interim analysis on the basis of 280 patients, not 270. The information fraction will be 280/390 and East® will re-compute the stopping boundary at that information fraction based on the spending function that you have specified in the protocol. In general, it is not realistic to assume that the interim looks will take place exactly as was specified in the protocol. Administrative difficulties might force you to make changes. The whole point of the spending function methodology is that you should have full freedom to deviate from the number and spacing of the interim looks that were specified at the design stage. The regulatory agencies understand this and the ICH-E9 guidance permits you to use spending functions to recompute stopping boundaries.
Q. If for example, in the case of fast recruitment, the first planned interim analysis with exactly 270 patients leads to a borderline adjusted p-value which just exceeds the required significance level, then one could wait for the next x patients and reanalyze the data. In case of significance, one could then declare this significant analysis to be the first interim analysis and describe the additional patients to be arosen just due to overrunning. Will this be the right strategy?
A. There can be two possible strategies:
Strategy 1 (Recommended): Data driven interim analysis. In this strategy, you take one unblinded look after 270 patients and a second unblinded look after 280 patients. As long as you report both the looks in the interim monitoring worksheet, it is very difficult to violate the type-1 error. The spending function approach is extremely robust. If you take a second look very soon after the first look, the stopping boundary will actually become harder to cross.
In this example, the first look was almost at the boundary. We took a second look after only 5 additional patients. Notice that the second look boundary, Z2=2.931 was actually much stricter than the first look boundary, Z1=2.887. Many statisticians have studied the data driven choice of taking the second look very close to the first look, in a data driven manner, after seeing that the value of Z1 is very close to the boundary. They all conclude that it is almost impossible to "fool the system" and exceed the type-1 error. See, for example, Section 7.4 of Jennison and Turnbull (2000) where they talk about "data dependant timing of analysis”.
Strategy 2 (Not Recommended): Do not report the results of the first unblinded analysis; simply pretend that no previous interim analysis took place up to the time that the boundary is crossed. In the example above this means that you pretend that you never took an interim look after 250 patients, but that you took your first look after 255 patients. This time the boundary will be crossed at look 1. But it would of course be unlawful to deliberately suppress the information that you had taken an unblinded interim look at the data.
Agree
How do you explain Ayer Capital adding sizable chunks recently ?
Looking at the recent Rod & Ren presentation, it's difficult to imagine not getting a halt from DMC. The success for PIII Heat should be slam dunk. Comparing Theromdox+RFA against dummy infusion+RFA (no dox) (slide 13) ? Absense of DOX alone on the placebo will render the interim results to be considerably satsig.
Bloodsuckers and Con-men...apty named for the company...lol
Sdtrond, what's your take on today's cc on the tone overall ? I saw your recap and thanks for the highlights. I was bit excited when I heard Mike commented at the begining that 'they are into something big' but with DMC having all the cards, it's bit pathetic they (celsion) cannot even initate partnership talks based on some interim data visibility. I would think any such talks could have been totally appropriate as long both sign non-disclosure agreements. And small investors can get the benefit just by such partnership PR news.
Not sure what to make of the gang...Sopornos or Corleones..LOL
Just incredible, you could share so much...thanks a ton..
Agree the more I look at this deal, with or without hedgefund, the retail guy will definitely get burnt, if not careful.
I will stay away from this crap by more than a mile..
On a side note, I follow Ayer for another personal reason and have invested heavily into CLSN that they also have a stake. Their other stake in Biodel did not do well and turned to be dud..I do know they have top notch analysts in their team.
I agree..the company's dubious share placement needs to be explained; however how do we explain Ayer Capital Management's recent stake ( > 5%) ? This hedge fund is all about biotech and the owner seem to be a respectable guy with excellent credentials.
Here is the link
http://www.fatpitch.biz/cgi-bin/f.cgi/psp/extn/lmt_entry/cik.1471149.977.html
Are you expecting the movement of price up or down based on the option activity ? Call volume (as apposed to Puts) should generally indicate upward movement in PPS, no ?
I also strongly suspect results will be out in October as well. There is an indirect sign that insiders are not able to scoop at these low prices, as they are in quite period obviously.
To give you a clue as to why I am long on CLSN is Link Max who is the insider and has brought tons of shares at open market is no fool. His ALXN holdings have paid off handsomely and he is betting the CLSN will as well. The day he sells, I will get out too. Right now, great opportunity to accumulate.
I see a strong possibility of 5+ minimum by end year and possibly higher when the interim results if they are out before then..
You think anyone cares ? LOL...
Thanks, I have confirmed the same. Looks definitely this is the bottom and the insiders must know (positive) a thing or two on perifisone's safety & efficacy profile
Do you have a link ? Thanks
With Kerx having marketing rights in US, do we know whether KERX has patents registered in US (similar to AEZS) ? If not, look for another immediate catalyst !!