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Just? Show me, please.~d eom
My bad, 295. ~D
Here we go...and if we go under 291, don't forget that volume air pocket under down to 287, mother warns...
Dr. Jerry, I am not an Ewaver by any means, but this is not acting like the bullish C waves I've experienced in the past.
Thanks for the heads up re: Covid. I don't get things like that. Used to be in the vitamin field for many years. Got rid of a serious case of strep throat in a client once, in one day with two different vitamins.
Decline on futures just now, 2947 to 2935. Retracement in progress.~d eom
Dr Jerry, I sent you a pm a while ago. Did you get it and do you have pm privileges?
TiA
~d
My strengths are calling big moves, and intra-day ones.
These intermediate ones are very challenging for me, and I think, many others. That's why NN's strategy of throwing the coins both ways is so useful for him.
I'm not sure we'll even get one at this point. All I am doing is showing the negative factors that could lead to one and various projections.
We could even go up until Friday, even early Monday (I' short, so I may start crying if that happens).
I have a Hurst projection to 2910, and still open projections that haven't fulfilled to 2774'ish and 2668-2884. Under SPY 291 there's a volume air pocket all the way down to 287 or so.
I am hoping for at least SPY 287 and even 274. But the market is l/t still bullish for me, so could be mild.
Please note, I was incorrect on my dates for the Hurst nested low, could be as early as late May/early June and late as the third week of June. If later, it's bearish.
Nice chart. Did you know about the '$one' symbol on Stockcharts? If you enter it before any other symbol it reverses the chart. I use it for $CPC, $CPCE, VIX, etc., that are counter correlated to the Spy and other issues as you can see the divergences better.
In this case, it would be entered at "$one:$cpc".
~d
LOL, but actually not LOL. eom
Looks over-extended on almost every time frame but those under an hour. If it can't make it over 30 (whole number) pretty soon, you might want to look for a short term pull back to 27 or 26, maybe even 24 (middle of candle from 5/19 on 4 hr chart). Actually, if it was me, I'd test the waters now, but I've always been foolish.
19'ish if you're really lucky.
The high of 2018 is at 39.45. Looks like it could achieve, or surpass, it by the end of summer. Nice chart and outperforming the market.
The one thing that does concern me is this huge volume it's been having past couple of days. Looks like blow-off volume, if you scan rest of the chart for comparison.
~d
Didn't happen. Did you go for it anyway? eom
I remember a few Opex's where everyone was expecting price to do a certain thing by Opex. Such as this week we so many think we sustain 2950 or rally to at least 3000 by Opex. Because everyone knows they like to end Opex on a feel good note, right?
On those few Opex's that I remember, they pulled price like a rug on a polished floor. I was one of those left hanging.
I am thinking tomorrow may be another of those occasions, primarily because of SXVY's sluggish action.
However, could be wrong and will re-evaluate if so.
Sounds good, girl. Or boy, not sure.:) ~d eom
Been shorting GILD since 75, just because I hate Dr. Fauci. :)eom
Who'se buying, Glen? All the folks I know with 'just' a few million, which is barely upper middle class these days, are sitting in cash.
There is an volume air pocket on the 5 min SPY from about 292 to 287.~d eom
Did anyone take me up on my short recommendation at 295.77?~d eom
Lunchtime, have to wait another half an hour to see what's going to happen.
I am betting down for today, but could be wrong, of course. Initiated shorts at the bell so have a little wiggle room.
Edit: Also have short position into June established and am adding on new highs.
Hi everyone, that was really a funny story, Glen.
Hurst nested low due end of May or early June.
I've been pushing for a good blow off decline on the SPY board, then a rally in July.
Best regards.
It should burst over 3000 like a cork out of a bottle should we get a good blow-off decline. Then whatever high we see by end of August, early September should be the last for this year.
That's my current position, and I am open to changing it.
There were other things being talked about then, but I understand your point.~d
The thing is...we never had a retest of the morning lows. Makes this intra-day rally off the lows very vulnerable.
Nebuchadnezzar,
Folks were shorting the market from 2011 all the way up to 2019 based on fundamentals.
Good place (295.77) to try a short there if it gets there.
I have been shorting since the bell, and closed half at 275 or there abouts.
If you put on an ATR 3 month chart, you can see the support at 290 and 280 respectively, on the 50 and 200 dma's.
On a 5 day ATR there is resistance a little above, at 295.77
This world shut down of businesses has created so much incredible suffering. I really can't stand it.
~d
A few volume air pockets under 295 on the SPY on various time frames, if we go under 295 again.
~d
Nasaravi, a belated thank you for posting Northam's projection.
It was much appreciated.
Going through a bit of a bad patch again (health). Have to rest and I hate not being busy.
Best regards, and to your wife, too, Glen.
~d
Some concerns for the bull case going forward (I posted this on the SPY board also):
SVXY today not even close to exceeding 5/12 high as did the SPY which gives non-confirmation on the continuation of the SPY rally. This needs to change quick.
Equity only put/call ratio just poked it's head into nose bleed territory.
Another concern is that the SPY hasn't been able to break out of that long bearish wedge on the daily other than going sideways. I mentioned before a good ten point projection off the wedge once it breaks either way.
Two Hindenburgs on Naz last week, one day apart. Look for $nymo under 0 for actionable trades on a HO. Right now it's at around 33 and trending higher.
A classic bull trap is three highs, one after another, the the second one lower than the first, and the third higher than the second: note the highs on the SPY for days of 4/29, 5/12 and 5/20. (it's the third that traps the bulls).
Some concerns for the bull case going forward:
SVXY today not even close to exceeding 5/12 high as did the SPY which gives non-confirmation on the continuation of the SPY rally. This needs to change quick.
Equity only put/call ratio just poked it's head into nose bleed territory.
Another concern is that the SPY hasn't been able to break out of that long bearish wedge on the daily other than going sideways. I mentioned before a good ten point projection off the wedge once it breaks either way.
Two Hindenburgs on Naz last week, one day apart. Look for $nymo under 0 for actionable trades on a HO. Right now it's at around 33 and trending higher.
A classic bull trap is three highs, one after another, the the second one lower than the first, and the third higher than the second: note the highs on the SPY for days of 4/29, 5/12 and 5/20. (it's the third that traps the bulls).
And finally, an intuitive feeling that we need a good blow-off decline to fuel further rally into the summer.
~d
Or...5/29 puts against....
I'm not sure this rally is going to make it to 5/22.
fitzwell,
The thing is I'm just not seeing the right 'look' yet in September Opex puts and calls. Before something happens, it's insane, up and down. If you have a look-back function, check February Opex OI, but back in January.
Somebody's always knows.
September is a little more than usual, but too orderly and doesn't have that 'we're going down to 180 or up to 360 look. Might change of course, as we get closer.
Hard to explain.
Now an almost perfect rectangle on the SPY daily. Projects to 10+ points, whichever way it breaks.
Back in the second week in March I made a call for 3270 SPX, then lost my confidence in that call as time went on, which is very different from re-evaluating a projection based on new analyses.
I have reconsidered and will be buying August expiry otm calls on the next appropriate bottom/support and rolling my Sept otm puts out to October.
Still think though, as Dr. Jerry said so well, that there will be clean up work in June.
~d
Market went up for many years on weak volume. ~d eom
4 hourly
What time frame? It seems to work better with longer ones, and yes there are probably some that fit better. John Bollinger said that different issues do best with different moving averages, and that the best on is the one that lends support on the reflexive decline/rally from the first move in a rally/decline.
~d
It could go either way. The Fed news could be faded, one never knows.
NYMO usually kicks back to the 0 line on any first decline under it. CPC had a DB bottom and is trending higher. Then there are my 'terrible' charts, but some flatlined today.
I have s/t phasings that indicate 274 and 268, but my l/t chart still has 3600 (thereabouts) as a possibility.
The thing for me as a trader is, what do I do with this information? And right now, I don't know. In the second week of March I called for a rally to 300, and possibly 327. I still think we hit it. But it would be a healthier rally if it blew off some more steam first (some more decline or sideways).
Best regards.
~d
That's what I'm wondering too.
No, don't golf, swim. Probably will learn some day. Looks like fun.
I bet you do, though, NN.
~d
Wow, just re-read this, Dr. Jerry. All ten indicators? Are they still on a buy?
TiA
~d