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Yep. The Warrants don't really concern Jr. Preferreds. That dilution only hurts Commons.
And the GSEs can't raise capital with the Sr. Preferreds in existence. So the SPS are either Cancelled (good for Commons ; great for JPS) or they get Converted to Commons (awful for Commons ; not ideal for JPS but not the end of the world).
And don't forget Judge Lamberth. That case has been remanded to him to review Jr. Preferreds' Contract Rights
It's not bad if they Convert to Commons at $1 and then enjoy the ride to the Promised Land making many more multiples along the way
For some reason, you seem to think 40% is a buyout. The GSEs can't do that without capital
Have you studied Capital Structure 101?
Jr. Preferreds rank higher on the Totem Pole than FNMA Commons.
This is looking like Jr. Preferreds might get everything and Commons get zilch, nada, nothing!
At least we were warned about this possibility. Even Ackman was smart enough to Hedge his Common stake
#NoBuenoAmigos
Nope, just Commons. Jr. Preferreds have Contract Rights and Judge Lamberth will make sure they have value.
Even Wedbush says JPS are worth 40% in their worst case scenario. Sadly, they say Commons are worthless
Fannie Mae Draws Zero-Dollar Price-Target Due to Dilution!
This doesn't sound very promising for FNMA Commons
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fannie-mae-draws-zero-dollar-214650808.html
Can we sticky these FNMA Facts?!
FHFA Capital Rule, GSE Restoration Plans, Possible Uplisting, Financial Advisor Roadshow to attract new capital.
There's a lot of things that likely will occur much sooner than November.
While I wouldn't be Long FNMA Commons without more clarity on the final share count numbers, I think selling Jr. Preferreds at this stage is a big gamble.
Irrational Exuberance is the likely culprit. It's FNMA's worst enemy.
But why stop at $2.15? Let's not forget FNMA hit $5+ on FNMA Fantasy.
Now that the FNMA Facts matter, even with all this supposedly good news, Commons are trading in the Low-$2s.
No bueno amigos
LOL! That's FNMA Fantasy Math. All anyone has to do is look at the 10-Q and they'll see the actual numbers FNMA is reporting.
This is just Common Nonsense.
The difference being JPS hold their gains, unlike Commons
If FNMA hit $3 tomorrow, that'd be awesome. But if it heads back to $2 over the next few weeks, then it's right back to where it started.
Thankfully Jr. Preferreds hold their gains since no one is Selling the Pop because they know FNMAS Never Drops
It's great to see the FNMA Facts here again. There was a long period of time when the Common Nonsense was driving the conversation.
But now, it's back to the FNMA Facts. I wonder if that's the correlation between Commons stuck in the mud while Jr. Preferreds have been On Fire lately
And how about the dilution from capital raises?
Or are they going to create ~$100B out of thin air without selling any new FNMA shares?
At least you're on the right track
Considering they barely own 20% now with the Treasury's Warrants, I would say less than 5% seems likely.
Best Case: 6-8%
Worst Case: Less than 1%
Median: 2.5-4%
Glad I was able to Sell the Pop this morning before the inevitable Drop occurred.
A FNMA Timber Alert is now in effect.
The Sr. Preferred Cramdown Plan may be our only option come November.
FNMA Commons are worth sub-$0.50 in that scenario.
I imagine the Market will start to price that in more and more as POTUS drops further in the polls.
Agreed, including investor confidence. FNMA's Irrational Exuberance got the best of us again.
We really need to learn to keep that in check by reviewing the FNMA Facts frequently.
At least Jr. Preferreds are heading higher.
Interesting. Even Tim Howard thinks Converting Jr. Preferreds to Commons is the best approach.
Let's see if Tim is right!
I'm selling the rest of my FNMA tomorrow.
The dilution is going to be disastrous to existing Commons.
No bueno amigos
Refer to Calabria's CET1 Capital. That's your guide
Either JPS Convert or the GSEs need to raise an additional $33B (more dilution for Commons, ouch!).
If I was a Common holder, I would be begging for JPS to Convert so I don't get diluted even more than I'm already going to be.
Not to mention, Commons won't be able to receive much of a dividend with those high yielding JPS in front of them
It's coming amigos!!
The writing is on the FNMA wall. Only willful ignorance chooses to ignore it
Yet you call for FNMA at $20. How is that now being hoggish?
JPS have to come out further ahead than Commons or they won't settle. They've been paying for almost all of the lawsuits for the last decade.
And yet you somehow think Commons will come out better than JPS. LMAO!!
You see, us JPS are a greedy bunch. Not only do we want Par for our shares, but we also want to enjoy any up-side that FNMA Commons may offer in the future.
The good thing is, Jr. Preferreds hold all of the cards. Without making us happy, no Recap can occur since the GSEs themselves are liable for damages in Lamberth's Court.
Who's going to invest in two companies with significant litigation headwinds? No one!!
The only way to Recap the GSEs quickly is to settle the JPS lawsuits -- 1) Give Jr. Preferreds at least Par (which won't happen since the GSEs need capital), OR 2) Offer them an enticing Conversion Offer.
So owning JPS now allows you to roughly 4x to Par, get Converted to Commons, and then enjoy the ride from ~$5 (pre-Reverse Split) to $1,000 FNMA + Treble Damages!!!
That's a guarantee that everyone can count on. JPS Conversion to Commons is inevitable.
Anyone that understands Capital Structure will come to the same conclusion.
Jr. Preferreds Convert at Par and then get to enjoy all of the up-side Commons have after the re-IPO.
This is going to be epic. It's Coming Amigos!!
Can we sticky these incredible FNMA Facts?!
What a day for Jr. Preferreds! It seems the Market has finally figured out the Commons vs JPS debate and has picked a side.
5-15% gains across the board for Jr. Preferreds while FNMA Commons languished all day and suffered from a never-ending Rotation to JPS.
Well, we all knew it was only a matter of time. Don't be the last one holding the bag
95,829 Sell also. So that offsets it.
At least you're presenting the FNMA Facts by circling it. You just failed to mention it
Washington Federal loss is weighing heavy on FNMA today. All while Jr. Preferreds are up 5+%.
Losing Washington Federal eliminates any possibility of the entire Conservatorship being deemed illegal.
SCOTUS taking APA claims means they may overturn the original Collins ruling, and then everything (Warrants, Sr. Preferreds, etc) are all in play as being deemed Legal Actions.
Thankfully, we've all learned to Sell the Pop knowing FNMA Always Drops.