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Here is how i look at it, we on this board look at this stock and HIV treatments much closer than most. I don't think there is something we are missing as far as the market or PRO140's value. the stock price is clearly being manipiulated buy a large stock holder either protecting a short position or selling off shares to drop there cost average on the warrents they have. i think this would be happening if we were on the nasdaq also. large investment groups goal is to have all upside with no risk, the selling is obviously a way for them to cut there risk so they do not need to short. i think once they reach a level were they can't loose much the # of amount of shorts will drop because they won't need them. this happening now really makes me feel that this is the last chance for them to do this.
exactly, why? does anyone know how to end this manipulation?
what a great statement from Charlie! thanks for posting
I think it is significant that back in mid march the trial was for 150 patients. the fact they estimated 5 months to get 150 patients would suggest 30 patients would only take one month.
I think i remember that Dr P said one or more of the trial patients in the p3 adjunct trial have already completed the 25 week trial. i might be wrong but this extension filing would suggest that is true. we don't know how many patients have been injected yet but i'm thinking the reason why Dr P was so confident they will have all the 30 patients quickly might be because many have already been injected.
seems to me the S3 could mean 3 possibilities:
1. CYDY is has all the paperwork filed w/ the SEC to raise capitol over the next 2 years ready to go, hopefully when the stock price is at a much better level.
2. i was told for an uplisting the warrant holders must be notified and given time to excersize there warrants, the S3 does that.
3. if a partnership or buyout occurs the warrants and outstanding shares need to be known prior to agreeing to the terms of the buyout/partnership.
I think it is more for option 1 because we know that they need more cash for the trials. It does show that cytodyn feels that in the next year things are going to happen.
This is what i found:
Here's another example from http://www.investinganswers.com/
How It Works/Example:
Under Rule 415, the SEC allows an issuer to register new securities, and then shelve the public offering for up to two years. This lets the company make a public offering any time it wants. During this time, any shares of unreleased stock are not treated as shares outstanding for purpose of valuing the company.
Because of the lead time involved in the registration process, a shelf offering allows a company to act quickly when the time is right to issue additional shares in the market, which can be a huge advantage. A company can use a shelf offering to its benefit by waiting for favorable market conditions to release shares.
Basically the company is completing the necessary filings with the SEC so that they can dilute quickly when they want.
It does not mean that the company will dilute soon.
I think that is a good idea, Dr P has not really shown much strength in the stock price and does not seem to make it much of a priority. Investor relations is really just there to talk to us, not to push the stock. we need to make sure future good news is not wasted. the stock price must start reflecting the value of the company.
good one! it is thinner now. just trying to be a little glass half full. honestly HFT is here to stay and the manipulations in the OTC are what we have to deal with. It would be great if traders stopped profiting on pennys and looked at the bigger picture.
HFT does have its merits, it does provide liquidity. liquidity is one of the first things institutional investors look at. if they can get in and out they are usually more willing to invest.
I don't think management is to blame for stock selling mostly due to the fact than when management releases great news there is no rally in the stock price. my theory is that MMs are a little short the stock and are keeping it in check until they balance there long and shorts. MMs are always under pressure to provide liquidity and therefore when you have a stock that has bursts of volume one day and low vol the next we get this muted stock price movement. it is easy for MMs to do this on the OTC. MMs don't have a clue if CYDY is a good or bad stock - they are just doing what they do.
Thanks for linking to this article, really explains alot. here is the best quote to help us:
"So how do investors somehow manage to overcome the obvious deception in OTCBB arena? One answer is indirection trading style by going long which the MMs do not expect. In the war between investors and public companies on the OTC BB vs the MMs, if the MMs have all the advantages due to position or other factors, direct confrontation such as momentum or day trading hitting the stock is a definite death sentence.
However, an indirect approach tends to weaken the path of least resistance before slowly overcoming it. The most effective way is long-term investors slowly accumulating and holding thus drawing the MMs out of its defenses making them as naked as their short position. This is war so this slow accumulation and holding for the long term easily achieves the desired effect to force MMs to cover and knock off the tactics or bury themselves deeper."
I totally agree, any reason for selling at these prices seems really weak. the best theory i have is it might be due to concern for future dilution to raise funds for trials. but, the trial update results should also be so positive for the shares that dilution selling won't have much effect. i guess the only good thing is that due to the SP being below the warrant price that the selling should stop, right?
It looks like from the latest S1 form that Nader has over 1.4 million in options - i don't know if any of them he has bought with his own money. I think they are mostly awarded to him by the company.
Also, it might look a little fishy if the CEO starts buying shares when his own company stock is right at an all time low. If Nader was in this for the paycheck only i don't thing he would be pushing the trial process as much as they are. He would be sewing a story of how these things take time etc.. He, the board and Micheal Know the goal is a buyout/partnership. I feel that there are milestones that must be met before serious talks happen, an agreed on FDA protocal is one of them. No big pharma knowingly spends billions on a treatment that may not work or has a history of failed FDA trials/protocals.
i'm just remembering a phone conversation with the then investor relations guy. He told me there was new investment at the time and it was Nader. I just looked through a few of the latest statements to see if there was any statement of how many shares Nader owns (that he paid for) and it looks like it is under a 1% amount so it is not listed. He does have a lot of stock options but those are awarded, not bought (i think). The BOD seems to be the largest share holders along with Alpha partners, might be different now however.
Also, I did send a long tough email to investor relations and talked with John on the phone about my concerns. His response is that due to the private offering and the increased # of shares that it takes more volume to support a stock. Also that the robotic selling that happened on thursday might just be a large position looking to scale out on any uptick to lower a cost basis, but he really does not know what any buying or selling motivations are. When i asked more directly about the reverse split and uplisting plan he really explained the problem. basically it is very difficult to get uplisted and that the cost per year is around $150k/year to be on the Nasdaq. it only costs about $15k on the OTC. Why waste the money when we know uplisting might lead to even more stock manipulation. additionally there is significant costs in reporting financials etc to be on the Nasdaq. I felt a lot better about things due mostly to the fact that it is obvious the company is focused on getting bought or a partnership, until that happens the stock price is not very important (dilution is however). He did also say that they are having no problem getting small to mid sized investment firms excited about cytodyn and that they own stock also.
Actually, the BOD and Nader do own a lot of the shares. Years ago when cytodyn was run by Ness, Nader came in and invested his own money in the company. eventually Ness left and Nader was asked to be the CEO. There is no question to Nader's commitment to cydodyn. The important question is if he can find a way to get the company correctly valued based on the near future potential. I hate to think what a new retail investor might think looking at the stock price performance compared to the FDA progress. it looks like the market does not believe the story and something is up.
I've done a lot of thinking about that as well - why would someone sell at these prices especially when on last thursday there was pressure for the stock to rise? the only 2 answers are protecting a short position and lowering the cost basis on a large position. if you think about it if there was a rally last thursday the stock might have jumped to $1, at that level we get many large shareholders who got shares at $.75 start selling. in a way it is better to stay down here quietly waiting for that big binary event. higher share prices mean fluctuations that encourage trading - not investing.
I have to be honest, endpoints really aren't that important to me. we know and cytodyn knows they are not going to market pro140 themselves. a partnership/buyout is the plan. that will hopefully happen due to positive trial results - not getting fda approval. i am more focused on when cydy will be publishing larger sample size results. that will show the effectiveness of pro140 and that there market #s are real.
thanks, it does help!
i hope so, i agree that there will be a buyout and it is why i don't plan on selling until then. my theory is that whoever is interested in buying cydy is waiting for a larger set of results. the sooner we get status updates on a sufficient number of patients the better.
i tend to agree, its us and the warrent holders setting the stock price. its why i asked about uplisting yesterday. i don't think there is much motivation by the management to get the stock price going. i tried to let Nader see that in the 12 years i've been invested in cydy i have only lost money and that considering the progress the stock price is not reflecting any of it. i hate the feeling that all the future good news will be wasted on such a small audience. i'm not selling but i really wish Nader will see that this is an injustice to us investors.
sure, this is from my notes:
phase 3 adjunct - patient req. 15 on pro140, 15 placebo = 30 total
should have all patients by end of year and done with trial 1st quarter 2017. FDA requires a safty study but that will include data from patients already injected, patients in phase 3 adjunct and patients that will be in the phase 3 mono therapy. looks like the FDA did not give a # of patients required - just that they prove the safety of pro140.
also, the determination of a successful trial was loosened up - the amount of viral load reduction and the number of patients with successful response. it looks like the FDA is mostly interested in seeing the pro140 patients show a significant VR reduction over the placebo group.
the phase 3 mono trial looks like it is ready for final submission to the FDA so that trial can start enrolling also. FDA is not requiring a control group for that trial which is significant. no real timeline given for the p3 mono but it looks like the enrollment will be finished quickly. i was given the impression the enrollment has been held up by getting the final protocol agreed on, not on a lack of patients wanting to get in the trials.
most of the Q&A was about the trial details, i was one of the few who asked about the stock price. a rep. from paulson asked about the plan for commercializing after approval and Nader seemed to me very clear a partnership or buyout is the plan. Nader said that he can't comment on who or if they are in talks but said the door is open.
Nader did also say they have interviewed 9 of the 10 patients in the p2b trial. the patients report that there way of life is dramtically better - not feeling sick, able to work etc.. very impressive results.
i was the caller in the cc that asked about the reverse split and stock price action lately. my impression is that the chances of an uplist is minimal. it sounds like there is no desire to reverse split due to the fact it takes 30 days to hold a high enough stock price and 30 days notification to warrent holders. this is not all bad, it really looks to me that the stock price is really not important but the partnership/buyout is.
i have wondered if the SP did reach $3-5 how much i would sell, possibly missing out on a buyout offer. looks like this might not be a problem.
overall it is very impressive the progress!
this is great news, however i'm wondering why the stock price isn't really jumping on the news. we have volume so i would assume there is selling along with buying at this price. who would be selling there shares here based on this news? i'm not that's for sure!
what bothers me is how can this very preliminary test get on national news and the status of pro140 is not. Cytodyn really needs to look at why there PR is not working. they have all the parts to a great story yet they just aren't capitalizing on it.
i saw this also - it looks like not really any advantage over pro140-
have to keep taking it indefinitely. Also they have only tried it on one patient and in the lab - no real fda trials started. Years away which means in that time pro140 is achieving the same thing - viral suppression with no side effects!
good point - in the past there has been a stock price build up and then a decline after the news. this time might be the opposite!
I just had a thought, if the FDA does not reduce the # of req. patients it might actually be a good thing in the long run. One of the criticisms of the pro140 results from the microbe conference was the small # of patients. If we have excellent results from a 150 patient lot that would really show the significance of this. I think showing the large positive data is more important for a buyout offer than how soon the trial is done.
the sell off today is under very light volume - could be WallstreetSTTA selling just to prove his "little birdie" is right. not very productive if it is simply an ego thing.
looks like you were right. i would like to know what specifically cytodyn has or is doing to raise the stock price. in the last conf call i was under the impression that the stock price is a top priority and that dilution would occur at a higher price. dilution at this level is just not logical. they had around $9 mil already, why do this deal for another $10 mil?
I agree, current management i feel is doing a lot of work at an accelerated pace. However their ability to move the stock price on good news is frustrating. I'm at the point of wondering what more they need to get the stock to go up? you have great trial results, celebrity in trials doing nothing but positive PR and a very low cost to operate. yet there is no volume.
I found this quote to be very interesting:
"Sheen will reach Week 18 of his test group on Tuesday. It is a Phase III trial - the last batch to try it before it can be released.
There are a couple of months left before the results will be studied by the FDA to see if it can be publicly released.
CytoDyn Inc, the firm behind the pill, is eyeing up an early 2017 release."
i have to be honest, i'm getting the impression that the FDA has a very clear process and Cytodyn is not really submitting protocols that follow the process. Each indication needs a control group, each needs a safety study to show patients won't die, etc.. i was under the impression that the FDA was good with what Cytodyn is moving forward on from the CC last month, how can one phone call from the FDA cancel a whole indication? Is Cytodyn simply telling us good news before the FDA has any opinion or statement about it? seems sloppy to me. Good news is not moving the stock price as it should, i hope this news is not too damaging.
Its just so disappointing that they can't seem to get stock price to match the potential. Their competition with all the flaws are making money, only the cytodyn employees and short sellers are making money on this stock. Why in the last conf. call did Nader make it sound like the FDA was all go with the protocals and now with one phone call we are back where we were months ago?
In the last conf. call they said they have roughly $10mil currently and that it is not enough to finish the trials but is enough to hold them for a while. I don't think they plan on raising more capitol at this stock price anytime soon. The trial costs would seem to increase as they get into the p3 mono trial where they need to pay for a longer term 300 patient trial. that isn't until some point in 2017. The other trials are much cheaper. My impression is that they are going to raise the capitol they need as the stock price is at a higher level. On the other hand, they have no control of the stock price and do have to pay for the trials no matter what.
I do agree with the RS right away, CYDY has not show the ability to increase share price organically. why assume that future trial results and presenting at conferences will raise the stock price? My concern however is that if we vote on no RS extension and the board decides to simply not do it by the Aug '16 deadline then what? what if they do the RS and once on the nasdaq the share price dwindles below $2 and they end up not staying in the nasdaq? i'm concerned about the risks without knowing why the company wants this flexability - timing is everything in these decisions.
This article is such a poorly supported opinion. absolutely no factual information.
It is difficult to understand how pro140 has such a hard time gaining traction in these HIV/Gilead articles. Its as if the authors really don't want to comment much in favor of talking about other far-reaching treatments and cures that are not as far along in development. i really hope cytodyn will make an effort stop this "who cares" attitude toward pro140.