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http://webmentorlibrary.com/course/suppliers.html
Interesting reading...
Dog
Seems to me...Mike has not made any bashing posts. His DD info is good and the post stating that we were all excited about the company at $1.55, $1.20, etc.. points to frustration we have on a company that seems so compelling, yet where progress seems much to slow.
PR from the company could be a lot better, IMO, and the "official" IR last gave us a rumor. Real guidance from Medify seems in order. The stock remains in a slow decline and the volume has gone to the dogs.
Hopefully, our faith in the company wll become rewarding soon!
Yeah lloyd, easy to sell @ .70 today, but pretty hard to buy at that price. Better luck next week. Hope you have to buy at .80 and we go to .95+ for the day. Have a nice weekend!
Mike010173 Weird things sometimes happen! Previous trade of any size was a 3400 buy @ .74, then a little 500 sell @ .7011. Then this guy drops an 85,000 sell order @.66. MM must must have been sitting on one or more buy orders @ .70 as he immediately sold 50,000 @ the .70. Bottom line: Can't figure why someone did that.... Dog
According to Bellwether report, good news IS coming from this week's roadshow for institutional investors.
When asked about when, the answer was next week.
Hope so!!!
Great information Mike. Do you know if these tests are only for notes, or is e-learning also demonstrated as well?
Thanks for the INFO!
Thanks Verylong....
Thank you. That is how I learned about a roadshow, but didn't understand who the roadshow was directed too.
Always asking questions and appreciate info from fellow, serious investors of the company.
Only been looking at this board for a few weeks.
Who is Andrew and what is his relationship with the company?
Thanks for your response to my previous...
Me three dwudman, I am very happy about the roadtrip now that I know what it's about. Need buyers.
God Bless
Dwudman: Where was the information about the roadtrip and the audience target? I seem to be "behind the curve" of information. Is there another internet site that provided the info?
Sincerely, I don't understand why we should have known of or the purpose of the "Roady" based on my DD.
Looking forward to better information for the stockholders.
Dog
Happy to hear that info Dwudman, I thought the roadshows' purpose was to sell Trusts into the system(s), but putting the sales pitch to EU Institutional Investors sounds super good to me! God knows we need buyers!
Dwudman: You are correct on the 15 pds (28US) per month for e-learning as per March 11 Prnewswire PR from Medify. It states that each client contract is for a period of 24 months duration.
It can be reviewed at:
http://www.insurancenewsnet.com/article.asp?n=1&lnid=264124818
This stock should be going up....not down!
This is great news: Please consider that WE bought this stock on the basis of Remote patient notes and potential of script writing direct to the Rx, which we expected to generate about 10 Pds per month($19US on today's trade) and when we heard of the NHS accreditation, etc... it was Ho-Hum, because this seemed secondary to the real deal...remote patient notes!
So now, it seems that since the founders have sold their original company (Medify Ltd) to Medify Solutions Ltd. (the stock we own today) the patient notes is NOT the big revenue generator, IT'S the e-learning that will be the biggest sales driver($28 vs $18) It appears that our original understanding of the major revenue generator turned out to be wrong? Well bless their souls, I wish they would be a little more forthright in providing information, instead of getting bits and pieces from people that I feel are sincere, but which I have no way of knowing about their connection to the company or fwhy they have apparent access to information that the rest of the stockholders do not have available.
Always appreciating good thoughts and solid info on mfys.
Nice work Mike, but based on how the $28 per month was stated, are we sure that this isn't - $19US for remote and $9 for e-learning for a total of $28 per month, per client? Clarity would be wonderful, right?
Mike 010173 - Like your approach. Don't know if you have seen this rather old, but pretty comprehensive analysis by analyst/research firm- Surich. This analysis doesn't include the education module as I see it, which certainly have impact on the numbers. Dog
Today’s Top Story Zurich
STRONG BUY ON
Medify Inc. (MFYS.pk)
March 21th, 2005
Symbol: MFYS (MFYS.PK) 3 Months High / Low: $1.17 / $0.39
TTS Zurich 12 Months Price Target: $1.98
Recent Price: $1.17 Potential 12 Months Upside: 69%
Shares O/S: 79,956,000 Consensus Price Target (www.stocktargets.com): $1.58
Free Float: 22,276,000 Average Daily Shares Traded: 4’064’000
Summary
- Strong demand for unique centralized medical records and its peripheral equipments
- The company could benefit from a major large customer
- The stock price is low by comparison to peers and needs to be discovered
- TTS Zurich’s target price for Medify is $1.98, consensus stock price target today is at $1.58
- 60% of the companies in the security industry are profitable
- Its partnership with Orange strengthens its future
Company Description
Medify Solutions Inc. (MFYS.pk) is the first UK business to have developed a Secure Remote Access product, addressing critical requirements of the UK National Health Service, bringing the latest flexible integrated wireless and web-based technologies. MedifyRemote, its leading product, is an application that allows remote access to a patient record through a Pocket PC. The software system is not only specific to anyone of the clinical data systems, but to all the NHS software systems. The business has been created by an experienced management team led by directors Jonathan Bryant and Trevor Bone. Jonathan founded the Medify educational and web-based concept, leveraged from a business development career in the pharmaceutical industry; Trevor joined forces with Jonathan in early 2003, bringing commercial experience from a business solution sales background. Together they have focused on developing leading edge mobile solutions for the UK National Health Service.
Stock Chart
Medify Solutions Inc’s stock has been trading since March 1st, 2005 with an average of 4’096’000 shares per day. After the initial euphoria on the stock as it got listed for the first time, MFYS.pk has stabilized and the stock is ready for long term trend to the forecast target. This timing should be taken advantage of TTS Zurich’s stock price target is 1.95 US$ as detailed in the following pages and this target should be achieved within a 12 to 18 months horizon.
Industry Analysis
An Industry Comparables Analysis (ICA) has been performed on Medify Solutions Inc. The medical supplies industry is quite broad and perhaps the best comparative to the Company, as it is the closest industry it would fit in. The major players in the sector with an equivalent market capitalization as Medify Solutions Inc. are tabulated here below. A few elements characterize this industry:
Market Cap Sales Operating Earnings Price / Sales Price / Operating Earnings P / E Operating Margin Net Margin
Medical Supplies 4.97 25.08 40.50 7.03% 3.12%
Encore Medical Corporation (ENMC) 293.8 108.0 9.2 2.72 31.9 37.42 8.52% 7.27%
Closure Medical Corp. (CLSR) 284.8 35.0 11.9 8.14 23.9 32.56 34.00% 24.99%
OraSure Technologies, Inc (OSUR) 263.3 40.5 -1.2 6.50 -2.96%
AngioDynamics, Inc. (ANGO) 237.7 49.0 5.1 4.85 46.6 54.34 10.41% 8.93%
Schick Technologies, Inc. (SCHK.OB) 237.6 39.4 12.08 6.03 12.7 14.72 30.66% 26.45%
Elbit Medical Imaging Ltd (EMITF) 236.5 125.0 1.1 1.89 20.5 29.51 0.88% 0.61%
CardioDynamics Int'l Corp (CDIC) 227.9 23.5 0.2 9.70 19.7 63.24 0.85% 0.26%
OrthoLogic Corporation (OLGC) 227.3 40.4 4.9 5.63 46.4 12.13% -5.5%
Candela Corporation (CLZR) 216.2 104.0 13.8 2.08 15.7 20.6 13.27% 10.09%
Biolase Technology, Inc. (BLTI) 215.8 49.2 7.4 4.39 29.2 15.04% -0.5%
Possis Medical, Inc. (POSS) 208.4 72.4 18.08 2.88 11.5 19.09 24.97% 15.08%
VNUS Medical Technologies (VNUS) 203.7 21.8 -2.7 9.34 29.2 88.2 -12.3% -22.5%
Medical Action Industries (MDCI) 197.4 127.6 15.9 1.55 12.4 19.29 12.46% 8.02%
Exactech, Inc. (EXAC) 189.8 71.2 9.5 2.67 20.0 27.66 13.34% 9.64%
Cholestech Corporation (CTEC) 183.9 52.4 -2.8 3.51 18.1 26.09 -5.34% -9.12%
Fonar Corporation (FONR) 174.3 71.6 -8.4 2.43 -11.7% -23.5%
Microtek Medical Holdings (MTMD) 170.9 98.6 6.5 1.73 26.3 15.53 6.59% 11.16%
Q-Med, Inc. (QMED) 169.6 12.7 0.3 13.35 2.36% -2.20%
Spectranetics Corporation (SPNC) 158.1 27.8 0.8 5.69 59.2 117.74 2.88% 1.55%
Quidel Corporation (QDEL) 154.3 95.1 11.06 1.62 14.0 11.85 11.63% 13.69%
Cutera, Inc. (CUTR) 152.7 39.1 5.16 3.91 29.6 101.14 13.20% 3.86%
Cardiac Science, Inc. (DFIB) 148.2 62.0 -7.1 2.39 -11.4% -15.7%
Somanetics Corporation (SMTS) 138.6 9.4 0.1 14.74 12.4 17.86 1.06% 0.55%
Quinton Cardiology System (QUIN) 134.2 84.4 -1.5 1.59 22.3 32.08 -1.78% -3.50%
More than 60% of the companies in the medical hardware and software supplies are profitable companies. This has been an industry standard. The companies losing money are often early, high growth companies, who are still losing money. The nature of this business is that companies regularly achieve medium to low profit margins (in percentage to sales, 7% to 3% in average).
The industry has been growing quite well also. A good year for the present companies is 12% and a bad year would be 7%. Suppliers to the medical industry are often companies with basic products such as catheters, blood pressure devices, etc. sold to the medical community, hospitals or physicians. Nevertheless, new categories of products appear such as electronic medical record systems, remote access systems or security systems. It is also to be noticed, that Medify’s products do not fit into the diagnostics arena or the medical device field, as those products are quite different in nature.
Investors appreciate medical supply stocks and thereby the price multiples found are “average to high” by comparison to other industries. Global medical costs rising and lower quality of service lead to the necessity for national health services to find solutions to such problems. Medify, by partnering with Orange and the National Health Service in the UK is at the beginning of major developments, helped by this important demand.
Analyzing the peer companies a bit deeper, we may now strip out all the loss making companies from this list and reapply our calculations. Indeed, we estimate that Medify will be profitable practically from inception, as this partnership with Orange in the present form is quite lucrative for the company. This results in operating margins stabilizing at 20% (earnings before interest and tax) and around 13% for net profit. These profit margins, we reckon, are quite achievable by the company and build the basis for our forecasts and estimates.
The product
For a better understanding of every investor into the company, here is an example of the type of devices supplied by Orange to the NHS physicians. This product is publicly available by any Orange user. Medify added the software interface for the physicians usage and access to his medical records.
The technical specs of the handheld device are the following:
* Microsoft® Windows® 2003 Mobile OS
* Microsoft® Excel®, PowerPoint® and Word®, Adobe® Acrobat®
* Java™ compatible
* Intel XScale 400 MHz, PXA263
* 64MB Flash ROM, 128 MB SDRAM
* 3.5" 240x320 64k color back light LCD Touch Screen
* GSM & CDMA Quad-band (900/1800/1900/2000)
* GPRS Class 10, Bluetooth™
* Infrared, VPN (Virtual Private Network)
* Wireless LAN, synchronizes with PC
* Data and fax modem, office and POP3 email, Video Messaging
* Instant Messaging, Group and Text Messaging
The advantage of such devices is the multitude of connection possibilities, allowing the physician or healthcare professional to get connected to the patient’s medical records in virtually any environment.
Forecast Income Statement
EMIS is a medical record system that contains 39 million individual medical records of people living in the UK. In order to enable access to the EMIS system faster and easier, EMIS and Medify have agreed a strategy to endorse and market MedifyRemote to all their users, a population of circa 200,000 healthcare professionals. As the MedifyRemote application is non-platform dependant and can link into any back office systems, Medify will be talking to other companies who provide back office and clinical databases, used within the NHS by the 1,400,000 NHS employees. The supplied wireless device communications bill resulting from the usage of the handheld devices will be paid in the form of a 50 GBP monthly flat fee by the user, Orange in turn pays Medify Solutions Inc. a 10 GBP flat fee per user per month for the software that allows access to the EMIS record, that Medify has made accessible remotely.
Our forecasts for the Company’s sales are as follow: We see that 160’000 users will receive their communications equipment within 3 years. That is a penetration of 12% of the total NHS employees. In further detail, 650’000 advice nurses and 150’000 practicing physicians and consultants, all employed at the NHS could become potential users. Our forecast is thereby a 20% penetration at a 3 year horizon of the core population of users at NHS. This brings the following sales forecast of 2.2, 15.1 and 39.3 million US$ within the next 3 years.
In absence of a track record in terms of sales costs and other costs overall in the Company, we feel comfortable for casting a cost structure equivalent to the cost structure of its profitable peers. This means that the Company can achieve margins in the range of 25% for operating profit and 15% for net profit.
Income Statement 2'004 2005E 2006E 2007E
Gross Sales 0.0 2.2 15.1 39.3
Sales Adjustments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NET SALES 0.0 2.2 15.1 39.3
Cost of Goods Sold 0.0 -2.0 -5.2 -13.5
GROSS PROFIT 0.0 0.2 9.9 25.8
R & D 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
S,G & A 0.0 -2.2 -5.7 -14.9
Other Operating Costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EBITDA 0.0 -2.0 4.2 10.9
Fixed Assets Depreciation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Provisions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EBIT 0.0 -2.0 4.2 10.9
Interest Income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Interest Cost 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
PRE-TAX PROFIT 0.0 -2.0 4.2 10.9
Taxes 0.0 0.0 -1.6 -4.1
NET INC BEFORE MINORITIES 0.0 -2.0 2.6 6.8
Minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NET PROF+EXTRAORDINARY 0.0 -2.0 2.6 6.8
Free Cash Flow Statement 2'004 2'005 2'006 2'007
CASH FLOW 0.0 -2.0 2.6 6.8
Maintenance Capex 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.8
Increase In N.W.C 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
FREE CASH FLOW 1.2 -2.1 2.3 6.0
Other Investments Net 1.5 0.3 2.7 4.5
CHANGE IN NET CASH 0.0 -1.8 5.0 10.5
TTS Zurich Analyst Price Target set at 1.98 US$
As a summary to the above, we believe that Medify Solutions Inc’s stock should deserve stock valuation multiples equivalent to those of its sector or industry. By extrapolating on the future multiples of the company based on the industry’s growth rate, we give Medify Solutions Inc. the following valuation:
By Price to 2007E Sales: 3.19 * 39.3 million in Sales = 125.4 million US$
By Price to 2007E EBIT: 16.06 * 10.9 million in EBIT = 175.4 million US$
By Price to 2007E Net Profit: 25.94 * 6.8 million in Net Profit = 175.6 million US$
---------------------
Average = 158.8 million US$
By dividing this 158.8 million US$ estimated valuation by the number of shares outstanding (79.956 million), we get a valuation of the shares of Medify Solutions Inc. (MFYS.pk) of 1.98 US$ per share. This valuation is a fair and documented assessment of our present opinion on Medify. As we signaled earlier, this valuation is based upon our realistic forecasts of the company’s future and we remain quite convinced that this future will happen. After all, the company will then be trading only at equivalent levels to its comparatives.
Consensus Stock Price Target
Any investor may also review or contribute to reviewing the consensus price target on MFYS.pk. You may review what other investors and analysts think of Medify Solutions Inc. on the Website of StockTargets consensus stock views (www.stocktargets.com). One can see that the target proposed by TTS Zurich is slightly above consensus target for the stock, as this one is at 1.58 US$.
Key to Success for Medify Solutions Inc.
The key to success for Medify Solutions is permanent innovation. And we would like to highlight this point for all investors. The perspectives for Medify are quite promising. Nevertheless, one lucrative contract is not going to allow the company to be protected from future threats.
The threat is pricing pressure. The NHS can, over time, request lower prices from Orange. In spite of Orange being a large telecom company, the NHS is substantially more powerful at forcing its own pricing policy, if it wishes to. In case of pricing pressure, Orange will not hold back from applying their pressure on their end and Medify’s margins will be compressed. Today, Orange is their only generator of income and Medify also needs to diversify to other business avenues. Thus, Medify is forced to innovate and improve their product and service on a regular basis in order to meet the expectations the management has for its own company, and for the companies it is in partnership with.
Medify has found a solution to also help to further reach customers for its partners, today mainly Orange, in a market until now quite underdeveloped. The NHS reckons it only has 5% of its employees on cell phones. With Medify, Orange has the tool to seek many more and will thereby always be a strong ally to Medify.
Disclaimer: TTS Zurich provides information on selected companies that TTS Zurich believes has investment potential, as an independent research firm. TTS Zurich is not a registered investment advisor or broker dealer. This report is provided for information service only and the statements and opinions in this report should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. TTS Zurich accepts no liability for any loss arising from or investors reliance or use of this report. An investment in MFYS.pk is considered to be highly speculative and should not be considered unless the person can afford a complete loss of investment. TTS Zurich was paid $17,500 USD to effect full research report and news alerts for a 12 months period. TTS Zurich intends to contract other third party IR and PR agencies to expand the scope of the Medify Solutions Inc. story to a wider investor audience. TTS does not trade in this security, nor will it trade in the future in this security. TTS Zurich strives to bring unbiased accurate and timely information to the market place through research. This report contains forward looking statements which involve risks and uncertainties that may cause the actual results to differ from those set forth in the forward looking statements. Information presented in our newsletters contain "forward looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Any statements that express or involve discussions with respect to predictions, expectations, beliefs, plans, projections, objectives, goals, assumptions or future events or performance are not statements of historical fact and may be "forward looking statements." Forward looking statements are based on expectations, estimates and projections at the time the statements are made that involve a number of risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those presently anticipated. Forward looking statements in this action may be identified through the use of words such as "expects", "will," "anticipates," "estimates," "believes," or that by statements indicating certain actions "may," "could," or "might" occur. READERS SHOULD VERIFY ANY & ALL CLAIMS AND DO THEIR OWN DUE DILIGENCE BEFORE INVESTING IN ANY SECURITIES MENTIONED. INVESTING IN SECURITIES IS SPECULATIVE AND CARRIES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. We encourage our readers to invest carefully and read the investor information available at the websites of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) at: http://www.sec.gov and/or the National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD) at: http://www.nasd.com. Readers can review all public filings by companies at the SEC's EDGAR page. The NASD has published information on how to invest carefully at its web site. Thank you for taking the time to read through this.
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Oledudes.... I think what you see pre-open is pre-market bids. Happens most everyday according to my activity screen.
Yes, I am aware of that. Sure wish the company could be more "transparent" to the shareholders.
Thanks
Thanks Drudman for the info...I will take you up on your offer to provide all the info you can.
It appears that the training part of this company can also be accessed using a PC and in fact, should be easier to use than a PDA, so I am wondering why a PDA would be needed, or very often used for this application?
Thanks in Advance
Dog
Yup. Looks like the MM drove the price down to get some business (making money on the spread with the volume) and now trying to work the price back up by uping the bid and ask prices.
This was possitive news, but, of course, not of the magnitude that we are looking for (like 12 hospitals sign up all their staff for training and for patient notes on the remote).
However, if you consider 55 participants at 10 pounds each per month for remote PDA and perhaps 10 or 20 pounds per year for the training modules, we are not talking a lot of money, just a start. AND you have to start somewhere, as they say!
At 12:16:59 a trade of 1500 @ .087. Don't know if it was a blip in the data or some poor soul tried to sell @ .87. I have seen this type of thing about once every couple of weeks. If it was a sell order, the MM must have had a very big grin!
I use Fidelity and Level II is not available. I can't even see the bid and ask. All I can see is each trade price and size after the fact. I understand that Scottrade shows bid and ask prices.
Buy at .77 and sell at 1.03 sounds like a good strategy to me, but if we don't get some positive news on Remote making progress, the .77 cost might not look so good! It's been a long time since we have had anything on the part of the business that is critical to growing sales and profit in a significant way.
Buy at .77 and sell at 1.03 sounds like a good strategy to me, but if we don't get some positive news on Remote making progress the .77 cost might not look so good! It's been a long time since we have had anything on the part of the business that is critical to growing sales and profit in a significant way.
Progrss on the training side, but threw this old dog the bone, but no meat!