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The art of negotiation. Start your ask significantly higher than what you want and by the time all talks are done/over with... you'll end up right where you wanted it to begin with.
Want 150B. Ask for 330B. Get 150B.
In the latest iteration, $150 billion is dedicated to housing, down from $330 billion
https://therealdeal.com/2021/10/28/heres-where-housing-funds-stand-in-bidens-slimmed-down-spending-bill/
Most likely yeah, tax loss harvesting. It is near year end.
FNMAH is 25 par
I do hope you're right about having a good thanksgiving.
there is no alternative,
but yes, mnuchin/calabria put them on retained earnings until fannie and freddie recapitalize themselves...
and biden is not getting money out of them anymore, unless he restructure's their balance sheets and exits
the government can do whatever it wants, putting a dagger through the heart of the housing industry doesn't serve biden interests. so this is recap and release.
you know, cheers.
1.10 by end of day Monday.
Let's watch this pop on Monday since the bill went through. Maybe Bradford will be right finally.
His shareholders would not permit.
i completely agree. if it is 30x as he says he should have like a 10% position.
Some nice volume today!
That just means fundamentals have stayed intact.
Agree with you that Navy always finds the best stuff on the twins at amazing speed.
To be cautious, Ackman has been saying the same things since 2013. He originally said in 2013 that Fannie would be worth $23-$45 in 5 years. Here we are in 2021 trying to hold on to $1.
If the seniors get converted to commons, we got a bigger problem on our hands. Need to seriously consider if we should stay in this country...
If the seniors get converted to common instead, the amount would be subtracted from Equity (senior pref stock) and also added to Equity (common stock).
Since both common stock and retained earnings count towards all forms of regulatory capital (core, CET1, Tier 1) while the seniors count towards none of them, any combination of senior pref writedown and conversion will add that amount to regulatory capital.
wow, maybe bradford was right about the infrastructure bill.
He listened to you for FREE??? My therapist charges me to listen.
I used to call the investor relations of Fannie, I did talk to someone live but the person always said that he could not comment on anything other than to listen to what I had to say.
The JPS don't have any part of the equity. If there is a conversion then they will add the 34B in addition to the 67.5 and the 26.5
Well if they're going to stay sub 90c I'll have to nibble a bit come Monday.
Wow, I forgot about that, thank you for reminding. Yeah... the govt should get a couple B in capital gains taxes from all of this at the end of the show.
Imagine how much money in capital gain taxes should in itself be enough to interest Govt in releasing the GSEs.
The tax on cap gains alone should be enough to cancel c-ship.
loool so I suppose status quo remains. No movement or red even with great earnings.
Will we end today green or red? (:
Just to reiterate my theory... This whole charade isn't really so much about the money. The money is important yes, but it is secondary. The primary is determining who will be the new owners of FnF. Way more power in that than any amount of $.
That secondary reIPO will be the passing of the baton.
Ya know, even Moelis had the GSEs @60B of capital retained. We're gonna make Moelis seem conservative at this rate.
So both gse’s combined that’s 7.7 billion more in capital retained from this Q
What does that bring the the total to now?
Around 58 billion?
Anyone have correct amount?
Tia
What total capital retained are we at now?
What's up with the JPS marching up everyday?
Yeah, I don't really get it either. Why do some of these guys keep saying its going to be treated like a bankruptcy restructuring.
Chapter 11 is facilitated by a Judge... There, they arbitrarily assigned a post-restructuring equity % for existing common shareholders. In FnF's case there is no judge that is going to do that. If dilution is to come, it will be sold on a share by share basis and not via an arbitrary %.
Anything else? I just don't see the gses' filing for bankruptcy including Chapter 11.
But ya gotta admire the persistence and tenacity (:
Bradfords new prediction for today…. These get tiresome…
Affordable housing gonna be front and center for the next 3 years?
you clearly don't understand how motivated the biden admin is to get this done and why.
Is JPS gonna be over $6?
bon voyage my dear friends, it's blast off time.
Earnings Friday so should be moving up shorts always get a little leery
I never thought it would be biden to get it done... but for some reason I do feel like, it would be done under him...
this administration is not as useless as you seem to believe and the cabal of gse haters who kept gse reform from progressing so rapidly have less of a foothold. Anyway. Lots of good rumblings from the deep.
Well as per SCOTUS... they can do whatever they want. If the acting director says they are building capital.
Then they are building capital.
We will all role play until the end of the show.
When FnF increase the liquidation preference of the SPS for free, it's debited from the Retained Earnings account.
FnF do retain earnings now, but it's wiped out with the offset mentioned, when SPS increased for free.
Retained Earnings is Capital, so FnF ARE NOT building Capital.
Everyone's an engineer here...
Keeps the lawyers busy with billable hours! In DC 1 out of 4 working professionals is a lawyer. I used to tell people you couldn't swing a dead cat around DC without hitting a lawyer wink
There's vanilla and chocolate... you're only eating the vanilla. I say to hell with em all, I'll eat both of them.
Yup. Common on the run tomorrow likely again
I don’t want to predict how far but guessing it could go a ways
Not a recco
I own zero common shares
Are you saying I should accelerate the JPS buying schedule before 10/28/21 comes?
biden wants to sign legislation before leaving october 28; then fhfa takes center stage is my understanding.
could be wrong.. i'm on a call, i have to drop a deuce.
I mean yeah, my cost basis is higher than this. If i'm comfortable holding it there. Might as well add some more lol...
Yeup
My first purchase was .79
10 plus years ago
Never thought it could be manipulated lower than that again
For everyone still in this... you're sort of forced to at least periodically buy some more at these prices.
Feels like 2010, slow bleed to 30 cents is what it did back then I believe.
I would encourage Biden to tax buybacks even higher than that. Its absolute lunacy that all these corporations are buying back their own stock when its at their peak. Ridiculous capital allocation decision.
The only time for buy backs should be during a depression.
Better hurry. Biden wants to tax buybacks at 2%.
Probably tax loss harvesting. Sell FNMAS and buy FNMAT as an example.
With the exception of par value and yield calculations all the jps shares are identical, it seems unusual that their returns would bounce around intraday and inter day they show quite a bit of volatility. Not really sure why and it seems to be a post SCOTUS phenomena doesn't it?
If housing does get axed in the upcoming bill... we may have a greater incentive to monetize FnF.
Guess who is trying to get on Mad Mac's good graces:
We stand with Chairwoman @RepMaxineWaters in opposition to efforts to reach a budget reconciliation agreement by stripping assistance for overburdened Americans who increasingly are finding affordable homeownership and rental housing out of reach. https://t.co/EfcUepqh5C
— Mike Calhoun (@CRLMike) October 8, 2021
FnF buying up their own commons wouldn't really help much... but on the other hand if they bought up all the JPS. They would actually come out ahead.
At current prices, it would be around $7 billion. That would be a very prudent investment. This allows them to go to market with 100% of their capital structure, instead of 20.1%.
For treasury to act like a hedge fund and buying out the commons would require some serious congressional deliberation. I think the chances of that happening are lower than even receivership happening...
I agree, but also, IMHO....they'd be better off buying out the commons than court settlement....then re offer new commons. After new commons offer, where ever the jps lands after cancellation of the seniors is where they land. Wouldn't be bad for jps but their not gonna get outrageous numbers of shares or 125% of par. If new commons, they'd have to offer a decent dividend so JPS would get theirs turned back on. This is cheapest most direct profitable route for government because they can negate the need for two common shares which no one wants and can re-ipo the entire commons enchilada shares, thereby maximizing their profit and also probably wiping most if not all the lawsuits away. They would only need a reasonable offer to the 20.1% holders of commons, and some guaranteed date for prefs with maybe some sort of dividend kicker.
Also if they do this, it doesn't necessarily provide hedge funds a windfall since the market is at play during most of this. They could always also drive down the GSE JPS dividend too, by offering a buyout of those high interest/dividend JPS.
There's a way to settle this that benefits all equally, the only thing preventing it is government, hedge fund and banks greed.
IMO I still think it is prudent for everyone to hold at least a sizable number of common shares in anticipation of a rights offering.
If these guys are going to be taken to SPO. Existing shareholders would always get first dibs before that gets offered to third party outside capital.
At the very least its our turn to hold onto some warrants.
Well estimating at 20B/year for retained earnings... Probably ~10ish years. If that does happen, the common share price would be astronomical...
The big question is.... What time frame???