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Kate, I can now say that I am in an engineering group, not IT.
So that would make you a buyer today then correct? Also just curious if your day/swing trading strategies have proven effective enough for you to generate a full time living at doing this?
I finally got my walking papers and will be out on my own Dec 3rd. No sympathies needed as this was my choice and I was given a good package to leave.
Sarmad is looking like a genius! <eom>
Congrats on that sale. I'm kicking myself for selling this years allocation at my stop loss levels during August (dang). I don't want to take anymore tax burden for 2007 so I am hoping INTC continues it's leg up into the 30s in 2008 at which point I will sell another years allocation.
I am tempted to view this insider selling as a bullish indicator. During the past few of years of frequent pullbacks in the stock price, we saw very little insider selling (executives don't want to be viewed as jumping ship). Now as the stock price starts to breakout we see some insider selling. It's almost like the executives are saying 'its safe to sell' now that the stock price is heading to multi year highs (i.e. 30-35s). 'Safe' in the sense that employees (and others) will not view this as jumping ship since 'they are convinced' that the stock price will be moving north from here. Ok maybe I am over analyzing this, thoughts?
re: I've read the latest IDC reports, which are under NDA
spaarky, would you be able to indicate if you think that the trends behind the current demand surge also suggest that Q1 demand will be greater than normal seasonality? and perhaps even into Q2?
The Ground Cow wasn't it? I think it's something else now. We left the FM for Oregon last year or I'd do a drive by for you.
HPC design win for INTC
http://biz.yahoo.com/bizj/071102/1545776.html?.v=1
If intel could close up 2cents today it would be huge. Funny to say that.
The downgrade does not seem based on fundamentals.
http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/071031/16438.html?.v=1
The downgrade came TradingMarkets Research which according to their site uses PowerRatings which they define as:
'a quantitative rating method which ranks stocks on both safety and the potential for price appreciation'
Doesn't 'quantitative rating method' equate to technical analysis? I could find nothing on their site about the downgrade that even comes close to sounding like they know anything about the semiconductor business. Should we even consider this a true downgrade (like the upgrades and downgrades that come from the analysts that actually follow the industry)?
duplicate
survey link here for those who can't find it. BTW I am not a paid subscriber but had no problem finding the link at the top of the page.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board_surveymenu.asp?board_id=369
It's naive to think that you have the ability to summarize the leadership qualities of any CEO with a short wave of the hand. Decisions were made during Dr. Barrett's tenure that I also look back on negatively. But I'm not arrogant enough to think that I would have done things differently during the heat of battle. The same can be said for this point you keep trying to make with regards to the C2D pricing strategy. The variables and data points that go into this type of planning strategy we are just not privy to.
But more to the point is that the company is not being managed to make INTC a good trading stock but rather to win the end game. We're deep into the 3rd quarter with the ball and sitting on a significant lead and you're complaining that we're running the ball too much and should be throwing instead. The goal is to win (and limit the risk of losing along the way), we can look back on this when the game is over and then discuss the success or failure of the pricing strategy. But for now all I can say is "it looks like we're going to win", and that's good enough for me.
All this time I seriously thought you were trying to make a point wrt to this pricing strategy etc. I guess I was wrong.
Should we start going back over there or stay put here? Any good reasons to go back to MF? Will Cameron Jones return if we all go back, lol?
a nasty web cam that would be!
hmmmm haven't looked at the earnings yet but the street seems to like the report. it seems to have put INTC in the green as well.
mas you keep confusing 'putting AMD out of business' with 'keep the fabs at full capacity and maintain market share'. To use an (American) football analogy, this is a battle for field position. In order to reward shareholders the company needs to maintain its 80% share (give or take a few percentage points). Once market share slips too much it can be difficult to get the pendulum swinging back the other way as we know. So we battle it out over field position (market share), some profit is sacrificed short term in order to hold on to share so that Intel remains firmly in the drivers seat if and when demand accelerates. So Intel wants %80 of the pie so that if and when the pie itself grows then Intel will get the lion's (make that gorilla's) share. Now why isn't that American capitalism operating as it should?
Agreed. A very confusing picture today. It's really not clear yet what the sentiment is on the street wrt to INTC since the CC. My guess is we end the week between $26.50 and $27.
Sarmad can you sell more please!
Without going back to the CC transcript, I thought the general sentiment in the CC was that Q4 would be a strong quarter for Intel with margins expanding further (enough to raise full year margings to 57% IIRC). And that with inventories low and demand growing that Intel might bring in gross revenue at a record level. Didn't you take away the impression that Intel was guiding toward a very positive Q4?
INTC down today...what gives? I had discounted the comments from mas regarding INTC stock price after the Q3 earning announcement due to general market performance but today the market is up and INTC is lagging the market. With such strong guidance for Q4 I really expect INTC to move either with or ahead of the market for a while but today's action has crossed me up. Any news or downgrades that might explain this divergence?
Apple Genius training...just got off the phone with my son who is at Apple Corporate in Cupertino this weeek for Genius training. I'm looking forward to having him configure VMWare for me when I get my first MacBook Pro next year. Just think I will finally get back from all those years of being Windows tech support for my kids while they were growing up!
Duke, Intel's wireless GM sounds pretty excited by this announcement. Do you see it as a landmark decision or is this just something that was expected?
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071019/un_wimax.html?.v=1
PSO to appear for an extended segment of Fast Money on CNBC this afternoon. Sounded like the show will be done live from silicon valley with some other silicon valley luminaries present.
wbmw, yes by all means good luck with your long position in AMD :->
today's conference call link anybody?
I don't think you'll here anything but negative opinions from those on the board wrt the fundamentals of AMD. You may find a technical analyst that might say something different.
ahhh, now I get that one. sailing sounds great once the noise of constant meetings leaves my inner ear.
but I'll need 30 to do it!
thanks, hoping to change my moniker to golfbum2 :->
I will be one of the ones redeployed soon. Expect an official announcement, won't say when. As a stockholder I applaud the move.
You confuse the goal of keeping all fabs operating at capacity with the goal of making AMD incur large losses. As AMD's Robert Rivet said 'the only good fab is full fab'. In order to remain profitable financial accounting realities require that fabs operate at nearly full capacity and that inventories remain at a managable level. The result is that product must be priced to sell (and sell at the highest price the market will allow, although not always executed to perfection). Now if your competitor suffers as a result of your own need to remain profitable for your shareholders, then so be it. But that doesn't mean the goal was to manufacture and price product so as to put your competitor out of business. If that were truly the goal then you would see a much different pricing structure and roadmap.
But don't you acknowledge that business conditions were different then? Keeping all fabs operating at capacity, introducing new design architectures and new manufacturing processes, selling all product at the highest price the market will bare, is a never ending planning process which can never be executed to perfection. But in spite of the complexity that the planners must deal with, they continue to guide the big ship Intel into profitable waters quarter after quarter even in the face of rough legal seas and a sometimes competitive landscape (though not so much at the moment).
This was a great quarterly report and the company leadership should be congratulated.
this is indeed the pattern, until its not...by that I mean that in one of these near term quarters (Q3, Q4, Q1'08), that Intel margins, revenue and/or guidance will provide an upside bias to the stock price instead of the pattern that has been occuring for many quarters (sell the news). I certainly don't know that this is the inflection point quarter (Q3) but I have placed some bets (INTC calls) that it is. We shall see. If not I will try again in Q4.
I bought more AMD Apr-08 9 puts recently and may add to my position in the next few days. But my view is this: if the AMD stock has not been punished sufficiently by the end of the Q4 conference call then I will close my positions at a loss and forget about betting on the fall of AMD. By Jan-08 the scorecard for this round of warfare should be clear for all (analysts) to see and if the stock price continues to hold up then I'm out.
I have the same feeling about the Oct-07 27.5 and Oct 30 calls I bought for INTC. If Intel reports an upside margin surprise and/or improved guidance for Q4 and the stock price does not see a significant pop to the upside then I'm done with buying calls.
INTC moving from 25.50 to 27.50 by the end of the month would wake me up. Hey it may not be sexy, but I thinks it has an excellant chance of happening and more importantly for me is that there is limited downside risk below $25 IMO.
hmmmm...I just placed a limit order on some INTC Oct'07 calls (to money where mouth is etc.). But being new to option trading I would need some help in implementing your option strategy of selling puts to pay for the calls. What is the name of said strategy and I will do some research?
Yes, I too have a large long position in INTC acquired over many years as an employee. However, if I firmly believe that the stock will approach the $28 dollar level as Q3 earnings approach, then I should buy some calls and try to make a trade to capitalize. I am seriously considering it.
I also believe that one of these quarters the stock will NOT sell off following the earnings report but will instead see a continued run up of $1-2. Problem is, I'm not sure if it will be this quarter or not :->.
Dan Niles made that call back in the late summer of 2000, as I recall. Can anyone confirm?
So the real question to me is: do they do this in order to drive the stock price down (in order for them or others to buy on weakness) in order to take profits when the earnings come in to the upside and the stock pops as a result?
If so, we should follow the "if you can't beat'em join'em" philosophy and load up in the face of these downgrades.