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Mnuchin is following Trump. Trump makes the call or fires Mnuchin for next man up ...
ACG is did a review for clients yesterday.
I'll follow ACG more than anyone else right now.
Donot - without dilution this stock goes into the 100s plural. With dilution it can be in the 30s, 40s, 50s, and like Brooge says, there could be some exuberance there. Once buffers are met, this becomes a dividend playing stock for housing that every fund in the world will want a piece of.
Just saying ...
Happy - to make it irreversible NWS does not need to be repaid. PSPA amended, consent decree and CRP is enough.
Consent decree can be granted without CET1 as long as the CRPs are in place. There are varying degrees of capitalization and plenty of runway to get there.
Your scenario is also possible, and I take exception to the "irreversible" part of your post as there are a couple ways to make it irreversible. Just saying there are options ...
Lastly, not directed at you, Happy, I don't buy this last minute scrambling that everyone is reporting. The plan has been there for a while. It just needed Trump's approval to move forward. End of story ...
Happy, I agree with the premise of converting JPS to commons, but the question is when? There is no need to convert at lightening speed. That is the fallacy and misinformation for some reason ... to keep JPS investors in their investment?
Consent decree will be done and then, at some future point, JPS will probably be converted.
Bradford says JPS gets to ~150% of par for a conversion ...
The question is when? Eternal has it correct, converting at 3 vs 15 or 20 still places the same amount of tier 1 capital, so why dilute? Makes no sense ... And JPS don't have leverage for it to be an immediate conversion ...
Good luck!
Rip - that's a great life story - fact remains your injunction commentary is a non-starter and no judge will entertain it considering any PSPA amendment is at the sole discretion of the Treasury secretary.
QED
I love me some ACG Gaby! Don’t tell the wife ...
Rip - ur reaching - no injunction would be entertained by any court in the land when pspa amendments are fully/100% within Treasury’s power.
Nice try, though ...
Rick, in your theory, how will Mnuchin recap to - assuming regulatory capital, not buffer - release FnF from conservatorship?
DTAs are not considered tier 1 capital. If warrants are in play, then Treasury is most likely setting up Biden and Yellen an opportunity to gain money from the GSEs, unless the warrants are sold to a third party.
The warrants will never be exercised at .0001 cents per share, and would be repriced. The question is at how much? Plus, there may be an anti-dilution clause.
I’ve always believed there would be 3 to 5 billion shares outstanding.
I know folks say if the warrants are exercised more lawsuits will appear. And I also find it hard to believe the warrants could be executed before Jan 20th. Doesn’t pass the smell test ... Maybe priced at 15$ and exercisable in 2021. Who knows ... but to do it now and consent decree be damned doesn’t make sense. I think consent decree is there and the warrants may be repriced at a significantly higher sp and with a moratorium for a year or two. Or Trump says give them their cake and let them eat it also ...
SCOTUS is also up. The $100 billion overpayment starting in 2012, forget 10% because FnF were about to exit conservatorship before the NWS, so $124 billion should be on the table.
What is the incentive to further profiteer off of the warrants when the gov made 124$ billion?
How are the warrants left for a Biden administration?
What about the Ackman and Paulson relationships with Trump? I don’t think Mnuchin is fully in charge of this.
If Trump and Mnuchin want Calabria to complete his term to 2024, then they have to deal with shareholders equitably due to Collins.
According to Gaby from ACG, she believes the cap raise will take years. I’m going to take ACG’s timeline as the roadmap until proven incorrect.
Gasbag is Fredo from the Godfather ... I suggest Fredo should stick ...
Guido, if that were to happen I may need a limit order those other folks are talking about. We would need regulatory capital, but not buffer capital. JPS mark to market in 90 days after relist?
This is fascinating - I’d like to be in the $4s soon ...
Action boku sarcasm in my statement, but it would be a pleasure (for me) to meet him in person ...
Holden Walker is a nice dude ... It would be a genuine pleasure to meet him in person ...
You’re not alone ...
Guido, I thot release is consent decree. Is there speculation we get cash returned?
100k is plenty to make a substantial impact on your life ...
Nice stash!
How many shares?
JPS is manually converting! Nice work, Holden!
Didn’t FFFacts say earnings by FnF would be garbage this year? Said forebearance would rule and didn’t even read the the analysis by FnF’s own economists who said Refi would rule.
Another Holden Walker disciple.
FFFacts - you are 100% incorrect!
Holden - i hope ur paid, otherwise what a loss ...
Gasbag using mom quotes? This is why he’s considered a joke in journalistic cicrcles. Small man’s disease - has to reply ... “Lighten up, Francis ...”
Gasbag still has his handlers ... he admits what everyone knows so he can attempt to regain some little man credibility, but still sprinkles in some doubt ... even if he has Treasury sources, they’re feeding him bs, most likely instructed by mnuchin et al.
Gaby & NORC - nice to see some admission from hackerman - nice work, Gaby is a beacon of truth and minimal spin, unlike many others - smacked down Carney and Hackerman nicely.
Gaby, who knows, if this truly goes to $40 per share or beyond, I’ll be signing up as a perpetual client of ACG.
Fully, yep, read the same ...
Joe - 100% false - this can all be done before Jan 20 inauguration! Nice try
Updated: New Folks - All Might Happen In 30 Days ...
1. After PSPA-4, treasury/Biden lose control over GSE's and FHFA is the boss.
2. After Consent Decree, FHFA loses control and GSE's are the Boss.
3. FHFA becomes boss again if GSE's don't follow Consent decree.
Even if Biden fires Calabria after Supreme court ruling in June 2021 sometime, new FHFA director cannot rollback consent decree or sign new PSPA. Also Biden cannot easily appoint new FHFA director
Bump - courtesy of hhhhhhh
New Folks - All Might Happen In 30 Days ...
1. After PSPA-4, treasury/Biden lose control over GSE's and FHFA is the boss.
2. After Consent Decree, FHFA loses control and GSE's are the Boss.
3. FHFA becomes boss again if GSE's don't follow Consent decree.
Even if Biden fires Calabria after Supreme court ruling in June 2021 sometime, new FHFA director cannot rollback consent decree or sign new PSPA. Also Biden cannot easily appoint new FHFA director
Bump - courtesy of hhhhhhh
Lotto - take ur own advise - take a chill pill and relaxxxx
New Folks - All Might Happen In 30 Days ...
1. After PSPA-4, treasury/Biden lose control over GSE's and FHFA is the boss.
2. After Consent Decree, FHFA loses control and GSE's are the Boss.
3. FHFA becomes boss again if GSE's don't follow Consent decree.
Even if Biden fires Calabria after Supreme court ruling in June 2021 sometime, new FHFA director cannot rollback consent decree or sign new PSPA. Also Biden cannot easily appoint new FHFA director
Bump - courtesy of hhhhhhh
Rest assured - Ackman and Paulson are aligned - are you?
Exactly, Navy! Keep keeping us with our eyes on the prize ... the PSPA amendment and negotiations have been there forever ... these articles state it is hard, which is smoke screen, it really isn’t ...
Good luck!
I agree - so they settle and allow for MC to serve until 2024, or they have to lock everything down so it can’t be changed by JB.
The issue for settlement is you have to return NWS funds in someway.
Also, do you try with Pelosi and say if you don’t use a portion of the $455 billion to help recap the GSEs, then fees will increase, hindering the housing boom and possibly affecting affordable housing.
Maybe Gary Hindes whispers in Biden’s ear to say instruct Pelosi to do a deal.
Holden - take it easy ... all I said was it was an appeal ... WaFed is certainly not dead ... I recall only a couple days ago you were touchdown celebrating ... have you learned anything?
There are several theories that will be confirmed over the next couple weeks. Some feel the PSPA can be amended without affecting SCOTUS.
Rest assured, Ackman and Paulson (hedge funds) who own Commons and JPS know what is about to happen and have taken steps to position themselves ... all but guaranteeing they are aligned.
Holden - it’s an appeal of Sweeney’s decision filed yesterday ...
Sweeney dismissed WaFed as she felt the questions raised there were very similar to Fairholme. I believe WaFed provided an amicus brief to Scotus for Collins also.
WaFed wants the appellate court to review. Next 3 weeks will be fascinating and 2021 will be fascinating also.
Plenty of information provided to SCOTUS about the conservatorship by itself for them to instruct lower courts on how to rule. If there ever was a SCOTUS that could act, this would be the one ...