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Looks like that $2 Resistance will be tough for FNMA to break through.
I wonder if the MMs will try to fill that $1.70 Gap considering this horrible volume.
Another FNMA Common lawsuit tossed by Judge Sweeney. Ouch!
Agreed. 1-For-10 Reverse Split for FNMA is likely.
$2 FNMA would become $20.
It's coming amigos!
Commons have $0.00 price target "Due to Dilution" according to a Wall Street Analyst.
As per the same Analyst, the worst case for Jr. Preferreds is 40% of Par.
I know which one I'm buying!
Bravo! There's no denying these FNMA Facts.
$0.99 possible if they keep the Capital Requirement where it is.
Maybe that's why FNMA Commons are really struggling while Jr. Preferreds have seen a 15-20% increase in recent weeks?
Commons really don't like the Capital Requirement. So if it gets approved, I imagine Commons are going to get smacked down even further while the Rotation from Commons to JPS continues.
This will help the Jr. Preferred Conversion Ratio even more!!
FNMAS 1-month Performance: $7.50 => $8.75
FNMA 1-month Performance: $2.05 => $2
You are the one that always says to "look at short-term performance," right?
No Bueno Amigos
I heard Arnold & Porter might be looking for Clients soon. Maybe they will take your FNMA case
For more info, see this post: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=157138436
At this point, it's about the GSE Fulcrum.
How Do You Identify The Fulcrum? Think about how you hedge your investment. If you’re long FNMA Commons, you need to buy Jr. Preferreds to hedge; however, if you’re long Jr. Preferreds you need to short FNMA Commons.
That alone should tell you where the asymmetry lies.
#Fulcrum
It's hard to sell new Preferreds without paying Dividends to existing ones.
And now you see the predicament for FNMA.
If they want to sell new Jr. Preferreds, then either existing JPS get Converted to Commons OR they get Dividends
Warrants get Executed, Re-IPO, JPS Conversion to Commons. OR they do the Sr. Preferred Cramdown Plan.
Either way, it's coming amigos!!
The difference is timing. When Calabria floated the idea about the NWS being illegal, he was not the FHFA Director.
When he floated the idea of a Jr. Preferred Conversion, he was the FHFA Director
It's Coming either way Amigos. Let's prepare for it mentally now, or it's going to hurt that much more later ... and that would be No Bueno Amigos
Calabria has specifically floated this idea. However, anyone that understands Capital Structure 101 and has reviewed the updated Capital Requirements knows that Commons will need to be diluted by an additional $33B if the Jr. Preferreds don't convert.
Considering existing FNMA Commons are going to get buried via the dilution from the Capital Raises as-is (likely to sub-5% ownership), it would be wise to start supporting a JPS Conversion now rather than end up with sub-1% ownership later.
Although, none of that will matter as the Admin/Calabria will do as they see fit with the help of their Financial Advisors.
CET1 and FNMA Facts DO matter
#It'sComingAmigos
Disagreed. Very high likelihood that a Conversion occurs at the time of the IPO (not necessarily before, but at the time of it).
FNMA Facts Matter because It's Coming Amigos
That first slide sums up FNMA very nicely. You have those that are adamant about Commons and you have those that studied the FNMA Facts and realized Commons are unlikely to perform well compared to Jr. Preferreds
Strongly disagree. Wait and see amigo. It's coming!!
$2 will be a Strong Resistance level now.
Just be sure to Sell the Pop, FNMA Always Drops!
You were saying? Value Menu FNMA Confirmed!
Now we have a Timber Alert with a $0.00 Price Target.
No Bueno Amigos
You can never rule out Value Menu FNMA. And with no positive news for Commons in the near term, it's likely it fills that Gap around $1.65.
Agreed, this has been the Plan for awhile.
If those Billionaires are fighting the Treasury/FHFA in Court AND they are also going to be putting up the capital for the Recapitalization, then those Billionaires have a whole lot of clout
FNMA would be wise to pay attention to the Facts.
FNMA lost the 50-day Moving Average today also. Of course that hasn't been mentioned until now
The Legion of Boom (Polar Express?) has been exposed for propagating FNMA Fantasy on unknowing Average Joes for far too long.
The Lemmings have finally figured out the FNMA Facts matter and are Converting their soon-to-be worthless shares for Jr. Preferreds.
How much ownership do you think existing Commons end up with?
I was thinking 5%, but even that's starting to look too high. Maybe 2-3%?
Considering today's volume, a lot of people Sold out.
The FNMA Fantasy had a long run, but now the FNMA Facts are starting to come to light and most people are starting to realize how big of a Gamble FNMA truly is.
No Bueno Amigos
Wedbush says that might happen. Commons worth $0.00 in that scenario, so let's hope for the sake of every FNMA Average Joe out there that doesn't end up happening.
What happens when there aren't any more Pops to Sell? Does FNMA just get de-listed and start trading on the Grays?
It's no surprise Wedbush has a $0.00 price target. They must be assuming Commons are going to get de-listed
Those are fair points. Someone had to be the voice of reason re: Commons, so it's only fair to emphasize the negative possibilities even if they are remote.
Well I guess they would agree to a great settlement for Jr. Preferreds that more than offsets any potential disappointment Mr. Liotta may face as a result of an "Unfair Recap" that benefits Jr. Preferreds over Commons
Those cases likely all get tossed out on technicalities. Anyone hoping for a Court resolution to resolve this is going to be sorely disappointed.
Admin Action via the Mnuchin Dilution Solution is the outcome we should all be hoping for.
Otherwise, it's a long road through the Courts for many more years
but i guess you presume the government also pays fannie/freddie like mega billions
Read the Remand back to Judge Lamberth. That explains it quite well. It affects FNMA also
Incorrect. It's the NWS that prevented the Dividends to Jr. Preferreds, not the Conservatorship itself.
And if a dividend was being paid on one type of stock, it should've also been paid to the Jr. Preferreds as per our Contract Rights
Although, I'm not too worried about it. This all gets settled and resolved later this year via Admin Action and then we're all left with whatever piece of the pie Calabria/Mnuchin cut for us
You're not comprehending the possibility of Commons being wiped out
Jr. Preferreds will Convert to the new Commons shares after the existing ones get wiped from the face of the earth or become Gray Market trophies for the Average Joes.
Jr. Preferreds can win and get 100% of Par while Commons get nothing. There is no scenario where JPS get nothing and Commons prevail