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I'm more encouraged now than before as in order for my portfolio to take a 1% hit the stock has to drop by almost 25%. It's never been this good.
I got my popcorn and a front row seat. Did the show start already?
I'm not an expert by any stretch of imagination, but this is based on the observations of other equities.
The typical funds who participate in this type of secondary, know in advance that the secondary is floated around, and have an idea what type of shares and warrants would be offered. Thus, they short in anticipation of the offering. Then, they cover with the new shares, and keep the warrants. They know there are going to be lots of sellers, which will create a selling momentum to take the price well under the offering price. I'm not sure if the maximum return for their "investment" would be at $0.86 exactl or not, but close enough. Remember, the warrants are free but their value will start decaying in time. Win-win for those bastards.
No one knows...
However, I'd be looking at the target that Dew got via using Black-Scholes calculator: $0.86. Although he refused to say this was the target where the new warrant holders can maximize their return, it certainly looks like the price will be driven down to that level and the momentum would swing this even lower. People threw piles of dung at me when I suggested that we'd see $0.70. I've been in the bathroom taking HOT shower 24/7 since then.
My job is at jeopardy now.
@wmtgreeter
It's interesting that one of the NEO collaborators, Parker Institute for Cancer Immunotherapy, is presenting. Why not just go there and see what other companies/competitors are doing. Remember, ADXS used to throw lavish receptions at the scientific conferences and do other non-orthodox things to literally burn cash as if there is no end of it. This one is in Boston, just a driving distance. Boggles my mind...
Is anyone concerned that there is no Advaxis presence at the Neoantigen Summit this year? Our competitor, Neon Therapeutics, has a significant presence at the NeoAg Summit, but no us. Why?
http://neo-antigen.com/about/agenda/
My take on the next conference call:
1) The will do a chest-thumping for partnering HER-2 with OST. No details of the partnership will be disclosed, however.
2) We will see no milestone payments from Amgen with regards to NEO (I am making this assumption based on the preliminary Q2 financial results).
3) They will re-iterate that they continue to sell/partner AXAL for cervical. No more details, but it's more likely they are preparing themselves for shelving the Aim2Cerv and paying the penalties (thus the paragraph about where the new cash is going, per recent 8-K).
4) HOT likely to start by the end of 2018, but dosing of the 1st patient early 2019. They say they are not partnering this NSCLC program now. Rather, they'd wait for the data from Ph1 and then sell/partner. They supposedly have cash to complete Ph1 for HOT.
5) Rehash ADXS/PSA trials, and may have some update. Reiterate that Merck is still interested.
As the closing of this secondary is tomorrow, we may get some update on who purchased these shares. No more b.s. about "you'd be very happy to see the list of the 2ndary buyers" from Noelle automata.
@wmtgreeter
#sellthebeech4sixbillions
From the clinicaltrials.gov:
Efficacy is the secondary measure.
Outcome Measures
Primary Outcome Measures :
Incidence of Treatment-Emergent Adverse Events [ Time Frame: 5 Years ]
Evaluate the safety and tolerability of ADXS-NEO in metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC), metastatic SCCHN, and metastatic NSCLC through review of AEs and the incidence of their occurrence.
Clinical Laboratory Values [ Time Frame: 5 years ]
Clinical Laboratory Values including serum chemistry, complete blood count, urinalysis, pregnancy tests
Vital Signs [ Time Frame: 5 years ]
Vital Signs including but not limited to (degrees celsius, systolic, diastolic, beats per minute (BPM), breaths per minute (bpm)
Maximum tolerated dose [ Time Frame: 5 years ]
The highest dose tolerated in colony forming units (CFUs)
Secondary Outcome Measures :
Initial signs of clinical activity [ Time Frame: 5 years ]
Assess initial signs of clinical activity by monitoring DCR, tumor response, and PFS, using RECIST 1.1, and irRECIST and OS per site investigator's assessment. These measurements are in millimeters (mm)
Disease Control Rate - DCR [ Time Frame: 5 years ]
Rate of metastases of cancer measured in percentage
Tumor Response [ Time Frame: 5 years ]
Rate of metastases or shrinkage of tumor measured in percentage
Progression Free Survival [ Time Frame: 5 years ]
The length of time during and after the treatment of a disease, such as cancer, that a patient lives with the disease but it does not get worse. This is measured in percentage.
Overall Survival [ Time Frame: 5 years ]
The length of time from either the date of diagnosis or the start of treatment that diagnosed patients are still alive. This is also mentioned as a ratio in percentage.
Other Outcome Measures:
Immunological markers [ Time Frame: 5 years ]
Immunological markers (e.g., immune cell phenotype, pattern of in vivo cytokine/chemokine expression, frequency and function of vaccine- and tumor-specific T cells, and cellular and molecular changes in the tumor micro-environment from baseline)
I'm on a watch for new 13F/G filings. Curious also if any legacy insiders added during this offering or not. Are there any new insiders? Do we see a "deficit" of the newly issued shares like the last time around?
I think Dr Petit might have just canceled his monthly pre-planned, voluntary purchases of the ADXS stock as it stopped serving an initial objective long time ago. I can assume O'Connor, Bonstein and Petit started their monthly purchases when the expectations were really high, and these auto-buys were designed to show a strong confidence of the top management in the future of Advaxis. Recall everyone was pumped up by those purchases while ADRO's management were selling their stocks. Now that DOC and SB are gone, Petit continued those purchases until this September and likely would have continued the program if Berlin and Gutierrez and Henderson joined the program. They did not, and Petit had to cancel his. It would not look good if he were the only one from the top management who "showed a confidence" in the company. Thus, just kill it.
@wmtgreeter
Everyone knew the dilution was coming? Really? Why don’t you go back , say, few days before the event and read the freaking board and let us know how viciously were attacked those who even suggested a D-word...
LM: Listeria Modified? Nah, Lost Money.
Ken did this raise as he saw that no monetary deals are coming within the next few months. The company needs cash to run NEO, start HOT, and wind down AXAL. Plain and simple. Although his bonus sheds really bad optics on the company, it was not the primary motivation to do a secondary. Negotiations may not be going as smoothly as we wish. That’s the reason for the secondary at this point. Had he waited, he’d be raising money at much lower prices.
Hi Ken,
Are you saying that the AXAL platform will be winded down and you needed this secondary to pay for the expenses when shutting them down? Thanks for letting us this know ahead of the conference call.
PS. Interesting that we paid a lot of money to license AXAL, then to modify, then take to clinics, then run trials, pay to the management, and now funeral costs...
I guess I was right. It does not make feel better, nevertheless.
Maple,
Sorry to hear that. That’s a huge hole to fill in. Were the stocks spread over brokerage and retirement accounts?
If I were to take a loss now, I wouldn’t be able to recoup much as the most monies are in IRA accounts.
Iggy wrote:”Market cap equal to or less than cash. NEO and HOT. Those are the reasons I bought more.”
—————————
No, the market cap is still larger than the cash or cash equivalents available, before and after the dilution. However, the cash will be diminishing and the market cap will follow if no positive news or developments occur. Once again, I’d say the cap of $30M or less is the point of no return. If we go below that threshold, we are done.
Throwing good money after the bad is not a good thing. If you average down as you keep saying you must be in a very deep hole. Somehow, I doubt you keep buying more shares. I think it’s all just a posture. I personally do not see any reason to buy at this point, not yet. I believe the share price has not found a floor yet. We might dip below $0.80. So far, Ken has not convinced me he is the man. Au contraire, he more and more looks like a wrong CEO hired by a wrong BOD chairman.
Dew,
So, the target price is $0.86 for the traders. I bet the momentum traders will take it down to $0.70 or even lower. Pretty much what I had for my back of the envelope calculations.
This is so freaking depressing...
Can's work today, all WMT customers are upset with me.
#ih8warrants
Yes, it's all about self-enrichment for the management team. Legacy shareholders have been wiped out clean. That's the fact.
The company will stay afloat as long as long possible. The management and the team will continue to collect salaries, bonuses, RSUs, and other perks on the back of the shareholders. Why not? It's all legal. Ken just "earned" a $150K for this secondary. Who on Earth would put that clause in the "Term s of Employment"? Too easy, and too painless for them to live a life of
Dolce Vita.
Harsh reality is they don't care about the science, whether it gets to the patients, or dies. It's all about their priveleged life style.
I would not be surprised to see Dr Petit quit. He did not make his pre-planned stock purchases at the end of the months. The only reason would be he canceled those buys as he's heading for the exits.
I somewhat agree with you regarding shelving HOT temporarily, until we get first NEO readings. They do not have resources to start HOT trial now, and the partnership could be a weak one. Once they get NEO data, then the probability of HOT working is going to be much higher. This would be
reflected in the deal price for any HOT indication. The company would then be negotiating from the position of strength, not from a position of weakness as they do now.
Cash conservation must be a priority #1 now.
I think this has some grounds for a class action lawsuit. Would not be surprised if some of the ambulance chasers show up in a day or two seeking for plaintiffs.
PS. Fgb (aka Kgb) sang hosannas to Ken a while ago citing his exemplary ethics as opposed to greedy s.o.b. DOC. I suggested that kgb would change his tunes soon once KB starts grabbing free shares/options/grants. Well, let's see what kgb sings now...
I'm stunned...
As of 4/30/18: "the Company had approximately $58.8 million in cash, restricted cash, cash equivalents and short-term investment securities on its balance sheet"
Per today's 8-K:"On September 6, 2018, Advaxis, Inc. (the “Company”) disclosed that, although it has not finalized its full financial results for the fiscal quarter ended July 31, 2018, it expects to report that it had $40.4 million of cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash as of July 31, 2018."
So, after all cost cuts and layoffs, and promising to reduce the cash burn down to $50M per year, they had $18.4M of cash burn last quarter? That's almost $6M higher than expected/promised burn of $12.5M per quarter. No surprise, they decided to do a raise as they could not control the cash burn rate. Geezus...
It's all relative. Depends who you ask that question.
For the BOD and management, nothing has really changed from their frame of reference. They are going to get an extended cash runway to keep their jobs and salaries for few more months. Yes, their options got castrated, but who cares, they were free.
For the real long term shareholders, our frame of reference just flipped a direction of motion and got same acceleration. With an added gravitational forces, our bag got much heavier. We are one or two steps closer to being obliterated. That's what lousy companies do to their legacy share holders -- wipe them clean.
Shorts are likely in celebratory mood. I wish I bought some puts before the conference call. I thought they would do a raise AFTER the conference call, not BEFORE. I was wrong. This raise sends a clear and loud message: there are no monetary deals in the near term.
This is what I wrote in response to J. Salmon last night:
It was clear for everyone who was not wearing blinders that those open market purchases were just symbolic gestures to entice retail buyers. The money they paid for those shares were just relatively small fractions of their total compensation. Why not ramp up their comps to then pay some “shareholders “ taxes? Total bullshit.
The management is incompetent but not stupid.
The closest to the recovery came the shares of AMPE, however, they had multiple Ph3 trial failures before "pulling" one last trial out which was semi-rejected by the FDA recently. What a mess.
AMPE was as high as $9 40 months ago, then it crashed to sub $2 after the CT failure. They rerun the trial, to fail again. Stock crashed to sub 0.40 at some point after raise with warrants (I don't recall the details, as it was done two or three times). Then, with the "positive" Ph3 results, the stock climbed to almost $5 (I was stupid not to sell!), and now it's about 0.50.
I have not seen too many of those stocks, as I try to stay away from those stinky companies, but you get caught in the hype from time to time. Advaxis is no different, just the level of hype is unmatched.
It's instructive to look at the history of those secondary offerings with attached warrants. Look no farther than Cormedix. They were trading at $2.00 when the news was obviously leaked and the stock crashed to $1.20 or so. The company announced the secondary at the close, with the offering priced at $0.75, plus double warrants.
http://www.cormedix.com/cormedix-inc-announces-10-million-underwritten-public-offering/
Then the stock continued to crash, going below $0.40 and reaching as low as $0.17. Even with the positive Ph3 results (DSMB trial halt for overwhelming efficacy), the stock now trades in 50 cents.
Can we see something like that? Yes, it's quite possible given the management's inability to strike good monetary deals.
Recall last secondary. They announced the offering after the close on 02/21/18 without the details of the offering (no price, no number of shares). The share price closed at $2.51 on that Wednesday. They details were out next morning on 02/22 -- 10M shares at $2.00. The share price closed at $1.80, at the day low.
Expect the details of the offering this morning. I'd say, 20M to 25M shares at $1.05 or so, and the same number of warrants. Could be trading as low as 0.70.
It was clear for everyone who was not wearing blinders that those open market purchases were just symbolic gestures to entice retail buyers. The money they paid for those shares were just relatively small fractions of their total compensation. Why not ramp up their comps to then pay some “shareholders “ taxes? Total bullshit.
The management is incompetent but not stupid.
As they decided to issue a secondary, this is a strong indication there are no monetary deals in the pipeline, nothing is expected for at least few months. That’s a reality.
This conference call will be crucial. Most likely, AXAL will be shelved. Otherwise, why this raise? No takers.
This is a bridge to something. What will it be? HOT monetization? NEO milestone payment? They need to extend the cash runway for few more months. It means they will raise $20M to $25M now. At what price? I wouldn’t be surprised to see the secondary priced at $1.05 or so. 20 million shares plus warrants. All depends on exercise price of the warrants. G-d, save us all.
You seem to have no clue about warrants, do you?
These warrants never trade. As someone said before, the buyers of the secondary will dump shares and keep warrants and play this like a fiddle. The warrant exercise price will be lower than the secondary price. Overall, the stock will be trading below the warrant exercise price. Depending on terms and conditions, we could see 30% to 40% discount wrt warrants. Cest la vie, my friend.
It’s not just about a secondary price and how many shares are offered, the scary thing is the warrants. I’ve always said to see if the warrants would be attached to the secondary or not, if so this would be a disaster. My worst expectations came true.
This was telegraphed and the Wall Street knew it coming. Berlin tried to pump this shit by signing a crappy deal and hoping to jack up the price but it didn’t work.
We are srewed.
Where's Ken? He has not posted for a while...
PS. I've got a pink slip from my $1.49/post job, looks like my employer got uneasy with the Defenders Of Positive Reality activists. Batermere, stay thirsty for a gallon of Bud Light. Was it Labatt Blew?
Hov,
Thanks.
Just a quick estimate of how much this deal could be worth. Annually, about 800 to 900 new cases of osteosarcoma in the US. Most of them will be treated via surgeries, chemo and radiation. Say, Advaxis gets 10% of the market or about 100 patients. Cost? Likely, they can charge $50K to $80K per year. That’s about $5M to $8M per annum. Valuation at 3x of sales- $15M to $24M to the market cap.
Anyone salivating about tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars upfront cash for this deal is delirious.
What’s your estimate? Do you believe the upfront payment was larger than $10M? I don’t think that private (non-profit?) can come up with that sort of cash. It’s highly unrealistic for that type of organization and for that type of rare indication. Get real.
Hovacre,
First, thanks for the effort to write the article. It’s a good read, even for a GED holder.
Next, you indicate that you wrote the article in the morning likely just after the PR. However, it was posted only after the close. Why the delay?
Finally, you talk about $10M for the deal ( or, something of that order). Was it the total amount or upfront payment? I know the details were not disclosed and it’s all speculation. Just trying to see your view on it. I personally estimate the upfront cash not to exceed 1/2 million dollars.
Thanks for clarification.
If I were to guess, the upfront cash for this osteosarcoma deal was less than 0.5M. Likely, just a symbolic payment. However, I'm not concerned with the lack of details. I think Ken showed he can strike deals when and where we expect them the least. Let's see what the next strike is going to be. I'd like to see one more (AXAL/cervical) deal before the next conference call. If the deal is not weak, that would send a strong message to the markets.
Following this news, I'd like to see any upgrade from analysts. Hope this will start attracting large funds back to this equity.
Agree on that part. Dilution is not off the table. I hope it happens at much higher prices though.
I am afraid I have to disagree with you here.
This osteosarcoma deal should have been signed long time ago when the canine trial results were published. Beats me why Tony or DOC could not get it done. But it's a good start for Ken.
Although the terms of the deal are not disclosed and they may not bring lots of cash, I like that this deal is done. The SP may not jump over $2 with this deal, but I believe we can see a change in the stock trajectory. If Ken can follow up with an AXAL/cervical deal, then I'm a believer. Now, I'm just glad to see something tangible on the table.
Nah, they're just bots, aka algos. With this level of AI sophistication, you do not need to hire HS dropouts like me for $1.48/post to shout "Sellthebeech", or "Kenreleasethehounds", or "Mybuddytoldme", or "ItsHFTorAlgo" and etc.