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I get tired of putting IMO everywhere and people tire of reading it. The real culprit is people are unhappy with the stock price. Much ado about exactly zero
To be fair how this offering was played may not have been her decision particularly. Of course the memorial service could turn into a small party if the offering is oversubscribed. I am hoping for .006, but if by chance 500 million units plus a bunch of pre UNITS, it would look better
If it is totally disappointing, I am ok with Simpson shouldering all the blame not that there were any guarantees of good financing to begin with
It was clearly speculation which hurts because the evidence is powerful.
The next offering I think for end of May, so next 6 weeks will allow short term plays. It is just irritating if Simpson played this offering wrong, keeps the risk/reward in uncomfortable territory
There is one side right now: various shades and opinions of harsh. Folks that bought at one cent or higher all regret their performance in hindsight.
I trade more closely tied to fundamental analysis than most here and since I sold upon reverse split announcement long before the vote, I have not traded or established a long position.
This offering looks like a kick in the teeth, I am more forgiving of the previous offering at the moment
Offering completed for less than $3 million which flies in the face of $20 million needed, I expect $17 million more for rest of year raised. Reverse split date announced also so reverse split before mid May.
I don't think there will be any more convertibles, but running out of money remains a possibility.
I believe reverse split price on day of split about $2.50. Offering price too difficult to forecast after that
I still think the offering holders want this to be a long term play into 2019, but this pommeling of the stock before the offering is nothing less than a nasty piece of work
There is no guarantee that going long anytime for long in 2018 will work. Of course it would be a risk any year. Your thinking about product is welcome, it is a dubious product, but last year market cap soared way over $100 million without red meat to back it
No, they want their investors to make money. Totally logical. The only investors that would have potentially shorted today, would be only those that sold their portion of the 250 million before today.
You can bet. there are not 500 million shorted before 500 million offering to cover with. That would be star wars thinking imo.
incidentally would be interesting if 500 million units plus 500 million pre units, but I am doubting it
I think everybody is off track who thinks there is any change in control coming soon. Delcath is just raising money to pursue approval. I believe Roth is a big time agent here that runs a pack. This offering is going to be relatively ugly. The guessing game will start on next offering
To keep it simple one should remain wary if this offering does not come close to $8 million, it could be less than $3 million after fees.
Todays trading has throttled back my optimistic hopes
I assume Roth deals with hundreds of companies, I don't really know. I can't guarantee anything except my thinking is more fundamentally based than most.
This is a very low market cap so if one accounts for unpleasant financings as a given, there is still room for speculation to the upside
The correct word is Roth. I know Roth is not well loved, but let's hear from the cynics if Roth is known to be on SEC watch list
If hedgehogs or nuns fund $20 million to delcath to push the company forward and there is no convertible, I am not convinced I should worry about villains. I do advocate astute trading, easier said than done
I think you should rethink your stats. Since the last offering if counting pre UNITS means that the offering holders had a grand total of 250 million shares to sell, so they would have no reason to short.
They voted YES probably 100 percent and figured prices would fall if they had half a brain. Given other retail did selling and there is plenty of trader churning, it would take a lot of volume to account for a sell off of 250 million, so I highly doubt the capacity for massive shorting.
Offering execution is everything and we can only guess based on the pattern of trading, and the latest trading is not encouraging
The only part I agree with is the people that voted YES are going long through offerings. They are not going big though as a group until we see a large capital raise, I will define as about $8 million at a whack
I think you did good. Record volume for this early in the day
You have to prove devastation on a grand scale without a convertible. All theories must be tested with evidence.
Maxm suddenly willing to sell at lower prices has me worried that offering is likely to be at .006, if the companies raises only $3 million there will be much bitterness until the next offering
Secondary the convertible??????????????
During the convertible, share count went up 45,000 fold in a little over 12 months. Out of the investing community, has anybody ever seen anything remotely close to that devastation without a convertible? Anybody??
Who knows exact mechanics to the delcath convertible? There is zero question though that oblivion is courtesy convertibles.
The convertible is over. The company could never get new offerings such as selling 500 million new shares without a plan to profit.
The key to offerings is to land a big one. I have misgivings if this offering will deliver enough money. Near $10 million is the golden triumph
Shorting has taken over as the number one exaggeration. This does not act like a stock being heavily destroyed by shorting.
Look who owns. If the new offering holders hold over 1/2 of common at time of reverse split and a bunch of warrants, I am skeptical they would find it profitable to be big shorters
The future is wide open. There is not going to be another toxic convertible which defines the toxic death spiral like nothing else ever could.
I am going to focus on each round of financing and phase 3 development. My guess is 2018 will finish higher and or profitable from todays close. I am making my current assumption that the stock closed at exactly fair market value, which is certainly not a given with this erratic monster. Not yet a buyer
Instead of casting doubt at this point, you are verifying a picture of a phase 3 trial that has fallen behind on enrollment pace which I believe is a norm for the industry.
A side issue is chemosat is not necessarily setting the world on fire so far.
So beyond Simpson there are external challenges perhaps larger than people wish to recognize, certainly little European revenue being one of the biggies. If Europe was all that excited, they would jump revenue big, Simpson would open her arms and say bring it on
You are providing a bias to say the response indicated a lack of knowledge, I am thinking. As an investor I am concerned about enrollment count, but also think there is a solid chance that the phase 3 could be terminated on less than full treatment of 240 patients.
So end of phase 3 I am estimating a wide span between end of 2018 into well into 2020.
The next boom if in 2018 could be signs of regaining Nasdaq compliance.
This is a stock for trading so investors serve as rocket fuel. It is more ethical to be overly pessimistic than overly optimistic. The exception to me is encouraging lawsuits and investigations is counterproductive. The company is trying to get approval, I am confident that is the way it is
Is there any solid theme dominating the message boards currently? I think more treading water, until new ideas have time to percolate, and gain mass
I think offering being completed will be released Monday morning, if so more information on phase 3 would be the right thing. Particularly if the offering delivers near $10 million
The best info if Simpson would give it up, total enrollment count currently.
I hope that it is north of 150 patients, but I am skeptical
When you have enough responses from enough locations, report your findings to investor relations. It is a legitimate question
My first guess is the term chemosat was not recognizable
Early evidence hints that Simpson and/or Roth, has been stacking the authorized share move and reverse split plan in a smart manner
In the long term who knows. If Simpson is lucky, she will get an offering done at one cent, but even then the only way a reverse split might never take place:::: would be a buyout in the next 3 months.
So chance of reverse split in 2018, I see as 99.98 percent, don't want to be overconfident
One cent though would still be fantastic and unlikely, really fantastic if it was for almost $10 million total cash raised
And with that reverse split loads and loads of empty share slots, a beautiful capital structure
It does not look like hedge funds if there is a series of offerings
I think the offering makes it more complicated than ever to predict near term prices. If the offering is .006, it will be seen in a sourly manner, but my thoughts are on the 10 Indians, 50/50 they shoot for even steven, $3.00 after reverse split
I am playing it by ear. This is nowhere near a major Launchpad with a reverse split ahead. The trading is interesting, this offering may go for a higher price than most expect, but still a reverse split is coming
The realistic upside I can see as being nearly 20 fold from here, I think those that have suffered holding should see these series of financings as a make or break. We will know more as the weeks and months roll, but I have still not bought yet
If a sub penny stock raises $20 million during year and finishes a phase 3, then .005 or .006 can be seen as either good or bad depending on the view. Of course the amount of time bought on this offering could be very pitiful, but the price would not be a shock.
I think a late 2019 fda approval is still a possibility, but if so the first whiff of such a thing may not come until late this year if at all. An early termination is not something Simpson would casually toss around as an idea
What is scripted when I saw the price go from $1.17 as I remember in Mar 2009 to $16.40 in 2010 on end of phase 3.
I listened to the odac panel hearing on delcath in May 2013. I predicted sub penny prices. I warned last year and this year to sell.
I have not bought yet. Yes I pumped $370 in 2010, but who wrote the script?
According to your thinking there are multiple people operating with different scripts. The simple explanation is simply sum of message board = chaos = zero. Reader BEWARE
Every way possible, not very encouraging methodology. Stop to consider that not all locations may have worked out, also consider the transition to a wider criteria of patients allowed is not possibly a seamless transition.
Last but not least, I would have to have looked over your shoulder apparently. Simpson imo knows what she is doing.
So to me the real issue is whether phase 3 is likely to be complete by end of 2019. Then allow 12 months for submission and fda approval. This company has lots of dilution ahead before phase 3 valuation turns really red hot