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You 'n I think a lot alike....there's absolutley no fundamental reason(s) why the equity mtkts should be in rally mode....at least on a consistent basis. I can understand 200 pts down one day & then 100 up the next....but not steady 'n consistent gains....to me, in this mrkt enviornment in Greenspan speak, that would be considered good ol irrational exubberance ;)~
Sure wreaks of rep manipulation don't it.
Oh dont get me wrong...rep/dem it's pretty much all the same imo.....all wolves in sheep's clothing imo.....a definite lessor of 2 evils kinda thing.
But I will say this.....the bush regime has taken the US waaaaaayyyy too far the other direction....& the McCain route wont take us back in the direction we need to go....at least not quick enuff imo. Whereas Obama will/should at least begin to correct things....put us closer to the right heading.
As far as McCain goes....all I can say is...can u imagine another 4 yrs of bush & Ilk? YIKES!!!!
OK....that's all I'm gonna say on da issue....it aint my intention ta turn this into a political debate/thread...apolgies if I may've ruffled any feathers.
Cheers!!
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
Good read...thx....funny...Trichet is yappin about raisen rates over there cross da pond.....so let me get this straight....he's gonna raise'em another time or 2...only ta drop'em back down just about as soon as he raises'em....WTF?!?!?!?!
Sure sounds ta me as if he wants ta make a few close cronies (not kronars...lol) rich all the while....ala the bush way....tphffttt!!!
Thx again for that read.
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
The August Currency Trader is out
You need to sign-up 1st if u haven't already done so....it's all FREE!!!
Happy Trading!!
http://www.currencytradermag.com/downloads/index.php
Very possible...tho I'm not so sure at this point that even $80 oil is good enuff to get McLame in office....unless of course he chooses Paris for a running mate....then he jus may have even my vote ;)~
There ya go....
on the manipulation thread...I see it like this...we have the GOP pullin the strings....so they're gonna do all that they can to make it seem as if things aren't as bad as they truly are. So ya jus gotta take this all into acct & react from that vantage point. You, I & most everyone else who has jus a lil investment/finance savvy already know how bad things really are. Thus I'm not so sold on the comment that it's all prety much baked in as far as the dollar goes...not by a long shot. Main reason being is cuz that's exactly what the GOP wants us to believe/feel. Pretty much whatever they say I tend ta lean the other way...or at least not take what they are sayin hook, line 'n sinker (no, I dint catch anything...yet...hehe).
I'm thinken when things are slow news wise...that's when the greenback will falter....when it seems as if there's no real fundamental reason at all for it to go down....that's when the big boys will be sellin...when no one is lookin....all the while the GOP will do all that they can to support it right into the election....then if Obama & the dems get in, if they don't do something real fast....lookout below....& then it'll seem like it was all the dems fault...lol
My 2 pennies worth anyways.
& a very good AM to all.
Cheers!!
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
Yup....down to the dock & baited the pole w/night crawlers (but shhhhhh....live bait's a no-no here...especailly w/out a license...lol)....I'll go back down in an hr or so ta see if the pole is still there...hehe
Makin the Costco list now ta load up on grub for da week....may have ta take 2 SUV's into town (Santa Rosa is the cloest Costco here) w/this list :0
Yeah.....the Fed leanin towards the Hawk makes ya feel as if things are indeed that bad...well actually we already know they are.....it's just nice ta konw the Fed is finally thinkin about actually admitting it.
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
Agree in that there a few lil quirks w/re to Oanda....when I adjust some orders (sl's, etc) after my initial
entry....indeed I see where even tho I have a net gain on the position.....when it closes out a certain lot via a sl (even if the sl is at b/e), it will call it a stop loss on the transaction history page....you'd think they'd know...but whatever.
Wonderin if gold will soon find a bottom here....& in turn the dollar a top....at least for this current channel that it's in?
W/the US broader indeces showin some strength here it's really makin it hard to guess wether or not the dollar will continue north. Fundamentally it's just not warranted imo....then again....fundamentals, schmundamentals..lol
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
Here's the link to JRB's.....in this post that I'm replyin to here....lol & it does still appear 2 b down for construction for the time being.
http://thefxhub.com/forum.php
Dint bring the mouse w/me so so tryin ta use the lil pad on the laptop is next to impossible for my 10 thumbs ;)~
Later.
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
Yeah....feelin better now thx....finally....still gotta finish those antibiotics tho....another few days worth.
Postin now from our next summer family vaca spot....we've rented (my inlaws) 2 homes on the Russian River....in Guerneville, CA....near the Napa Valley Wine region. So not alotta time for postin over the next few days...til Fri....I "get" ta come home a few days early....lol
Anywho....guess I best try & keep it more topical here....maybe my rants are runnin folks off....jus tryin ta add a lil spice to wht can otherwise be a fairly boring topic....t/a...then again I suppose that's not my call ta make.....lol
So back ta biz at hand here.....man alive has the aus/us been killen me...tryin ta go long for the last few days & it jus aint there.....guess I should be goin w/the trend is your friend strat...or jus give up on it all together & look for other opps in other pairs.
& w/re to JRB's place....I'm on the laptop now & cant seem ta pull up the link.....maybe cuz the other day he had a sign up sayin that it was down for construction?.....I also posted the link here as well the other day so if ya wanna dig up some of my other fairly recent posts I'm sure u will be able ta find it.
OK....gettin yelled at now...wasn't supposed ta bring the laptop on this trip...woops....lol
Gotta run....time ta go bait the pole....back later on today...maybe...hehe
Cheers from "The River" ;)~
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
Had no clue Matt....but thx 4 da heads-up there....
guess I best mind my p's 'n q's ;)~
my pleasure Doni...n e x....(my short cut way of sayin 'anytime')
however do realize that was about the 3rd time in as many days that I've posted it...then again if ya aint readin my posts....who could blame ya? ;)~
Yeah...the good ol' Econ Calendar.....don't leave home without it fo'sho...hehe
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
Well my explanation would be that....
it seems as if the greenback has stabilized a bit...(even goin up if my eye's aren't playin tricks on me...lol) & gold goin south....so most other currencies....especially those that trade opposite the greenback are trending down.
I don't know....does that explanation wash? lol
Dollar gettin healthier....could it be? If so..I'm
still leanin towards a sucker rally there...& if I'm wrong (as per usual)...it shouldn't trend up all that fast...I just don't see it fundamentally speaking....still gotta few fairly serious issues ta deal with before we see the caution flag replaced w/the green one.....thot I'd throw a lil NASCAR pharse in there since it's Sun ;)~
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
oh yeah....that lil do-hickey....I forgot what that was cuz I always have it hidden....lol
Gotcha.....sorry about da brain fart/blonde moment there...sheesh!!
OK...once ya enlighten me on the Ibox thingy....I might be w/ya here....lol
it's Sun so you'll have ta be extra patient w/me ;)~
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
PS...& while I'm on the subject of my 4x ignorance...
been meanin ta ask.....I see "Ibox" bein mentioned from time ta time.....ahhh....wuz an Ibox?
TIA!!!
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
Sorry....I'm not really seein that...anyway...how can they ALL be taking hits?...if one side is up aint the other down?
What specific pairs are you ref to?
Sorry for my ignorance here but I'm just havin trouble (as u can tell) comprehending your ?....apolgies Bud.
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
What's your ? again? Dont think I understand it....dint u ask why things are so whacky upon the open this afternoon?
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
Here's the economic calendar.....check the exact timeframe u r referrin to & this should tell ya just what occured at the time in ?
http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar
It's Sun.....which is why folks here have coined it
PYPS (pick your pockets Sunday)
Sun is always a fairly unpredcidtable day...& typically for no decent reason(s) either...no rhyme or reason...thus it's best to stay away until the liquidity emerges during the Mon London session.
Betcha by then things will have settled down some.
FF?....
& have u been able to take a look at JRB's place yet?
Thinken maybe that's the kinda format/setup u r interested in.
& the sad thing about that Browne tune....it was written over 2 decades ago...back in '86 & it rings even true'er today than ever b4.....sad, really sad that our generation hasn't been able to really make any significant progress forward in removing this type of geopolitical control.
OK...who wants the soap box next....I'm done..for the day....said my peace on the matter.
Paece!
Agree on all counts....
it's all whatever they are tryin ta sell (aheem...force down our throats) us at any given second. Reminds me of the Jackson Browne tune "Lives in the Balance"
I've been waiting for something to happen
For a week or a month or a year
With the blood in the ink of the headlines
And the sound of the crowd in my ear
You might ask what it takes to remember
When you know that youve seen it before
Where a government lies to a people
And a country is drifting to war
And theres a shadow on the faces
Of the men who send the guns
To the wars that are fought in places
Where their business interest runs
On the radio talk shows and the t.v.
You hear one thing again and again
How the u.s.a. stands for freedom
And we come to the aid of a friend
But who are the ones that we call our friends--
These governments killing their own?
Or the people who finally cant take any more
And they pick up a gun or a brick or a stone
There are lives in the balance
There are people under fire
There are children at the cannons
And there is blood on the wire
Theres a shadow on the faces
Of the men who fan the flames
Of the wars that are fought in places
Where we cant even say the names
They sell us the president the same way
They sell us our clothes and our cars
They sell us every thing from youth to religion
The same time they sell us our wars
I want to know who the men in the shadows are
I want to hear somebody asking them why
They can be counted on to tell us who our enemies are
But theyre never the ones to fight or to die
And there are lives in the balance
There are people under fire
There are children at the cannons
And there is blood on the wire
So the real challenge is.....decide where & how they wanna spin 'n manipulate us & then react accordingly...so it's safe ta say that if we're being told the truth about something...it wasn't really an important topic ta begin with...lol
tell ya what....4x much more so than equities has really taught me & opened up my eyes to how the govts collectively control their masses....ie keep them as suppressed as possible at all times.
Thx for checkin in Elder...nice ta see ya surface here again....& all the other old school usual suspects...Relentless, Jester, et al....try not ta be strangers....really enjoy this sorta 'coffee talk' ;)~
Cheers!!
Indeed.....begin w/the smallest possible lots set w/the lowest leverage.....another reason Oanda is a decent 1st timer choice....micro lots set to lowball leverage.....do they offer 10-1?
I do know that w/Oanda you can actually watch your positions move in pennies....can't go wrong there when 1st dippen your piggy in. ;)~
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
Bloomberg is OK...unless u r lookin for r/t #'s
think Bloom is a 15 min delay....maybe less
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html
Tim....
a true long 4x position (holding more than several hrs...at least nothing longer than a day tops) requires a decent amt of capital...unless you're trading on the smallest of leverage. For long 4x positions u will always have several storms to weather...unless u r really lucky & nail a bottom & find that you're able to hold onto to that position for many days while it's in the money.
Perhaps I'm not understanding you correctly tho...maybe you simply mean goin long euro/usd & looking for a few pips & get out....as what most home traders do.....only lookin for a few pips & run'n.
1 of the many great things about trading 4x....no matter which way the chart goes....there's pretty much ALWAYS a trade somewhere....you don't need to worry about missing an opportunity....they're always present long or short. If the euro happens to spike up the day before you fund....adjust accordingly & go short. So dont have your heart set on a long euro call cuz ya just never from day to day...& many times hr to hr or even min to min as you've seen this week.
Simply let the mrkt come to you & take what its' given....no need to over think things.....which is great for folks like me
;)~
& u have a great wknd as well mah fren!!
Cheers!!
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
OK...1 more Fri night rant...I'll keep it brief....
anyone hear the Exxon #'s that were reported ystrdy or the day b4?
I think I heard their profit was somethin like 40 BILLION jus for the past qtr....which comes down to 90K a minute I think the reporter said....can that be right?
& get this....they're sayin the real profit # was really 70 billion but they don't have to report that # cuz Uncle Sam took 30 right off the top.....know wonder bush aint doin squat for relief at the pumps.....tphhhfffttt!!!!
OK....done....now I need a Fri night Norco ;)~
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
Tim....Oanda is good cuz they are one of the few out there who offer micro lots....not many do to my understanding.
In addition Oanda also has some of the tightest variable spreads around.
The downsides are....at least for me, I found that in the beginning their platform wasn't all that e z to navigate...ie user friendly. Tho now after a yr + I feel fairly confident w/em. Also..their charts aren't all that great....which pretty much can be said for most brokerages. Most of the old schoolers from this board typically have a spearate stand alone chart platform open that they use while trading.
Also you should find out in advance how easy it is to get your money....request for transfers...some places have minimum's...like $500 & will charge you fee's on top of that...the lower the transfer the higher the fee, etc.
Whereas I think w/Oanda either their transfer fees are quite low or it could be that the minimum is real low....maybe $50? Not sure but these are all questions you should be looking into upfront before making your initial deposit.
One other drawback to Oanda.....they don't offer trailing stops.....but I can tell ya this....the brokers that do will charge ya for it....either in the spread or by the order. There's no free lunch.
Oh & 1 other fairly important thing....u should ask what the broker will do in the event that u r gettin close to a margin call....will they contact you in advance & give you a chance to add funds to your acct so that u can keep that position open....or will they simply wipe ya out w/no notice? Or maybe they'll give ya a chance/choice to liquidate other open positions to make room for the loser that's about to be margined...etc.
Tonz of questions ta ask....& I think burried here somewhere are several posts on this topic listing all the questions to be mindful of when choosing as broker.
But bottom line ....decide what type of strategy/style you wanna trade by & find the broker that best accomodates your style. Some folks worry about slippage so they go w/a fixed spread outfit....some want the best spread around but in turn some of these low-variable spread outfits tend to play games w/ya....gettin re-quotted, slippage, etc....the list goes on & on.
As you can see, it's really a loaded ?....& if I were more loaded I'd prolly go on.....lucky you (& the rest of the board) I'm not....yet...but it is Fri night ya know ;)~
Happy Wknd all!!
Cheers!!!
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
Depends on the broker you choose.....Oanda (that's the one Nettles is referrin to here) uses variable spreads that change w/mrkt liquidity....the more liquid/active the mrkt is, the lower the spreads typically....so when late Fri afternoon rolls around the spreads go wide & dont come back down til Sun PM several hrs after the mrkt opens up for the new week in Asia.
Other brokers use a fixed spread (like MG Financial)....typically 5 pips minimum & that never changes no matter what mrkt liquidity is at any given time...thus the term fixed...lol But the fixed pip brokers will charge a different fixed rate for different pairs....the less liquid a par is w/that broker, the higher the fixed spread will be.....but w/pairs like the euru/us....the spread is 5....at least it was a yr ago....so dont quote me on their current fixed rates...coulda changed since I last demo'd w/em over a yr ago.
Watchin Kudlow today I could just f'n throw the tube out the window.....he's finally (along w/the guy he had on who was in his corner playin the role of the Kudlow monkey....forget his name....then opposite him was Former Labor Sec Bob Reicht from the Clinton ERA....who actually has 1/2 a grasp at what's goin on imo) begining ta hint that we may be in a recession now...& he goes on ta say that "if we are...who knows, we may be near the end of it."
ARE YOU F'N JOKIN ME?? So tell me Lar.....if you feel we may be in a recession (duhhhh) & that it could be over....pls explain all the Goldilocks comments of yours over the past 5-6+ mos u F'n MORON!!!
All this time (as long as I can recall now....maybe a yr) he's been tellin us we're not in a recession & that the economy resembles more of a Goldilocks dynamic...& now he's beg ta change his tune....wadda hoot.
I find that I'm watchin cnbc now for the humor aspect...not to learn anything.....just find a few laughs oudda the way the media continues to spin us...too funny.
Kudlow is such da BS'er....comes off as if he's all knowing all the time....& now sayin we may not be in a Goldilocks enviornment....no chit Lar.....ya F'n GOP Dufuss!!
Note....I have many GOP friends....so I dont think they're all Dufuss'....there's just a few who have no clue....& the scary thing is....many of those few have a whole lotta power/clout :0
OK....steppin off da soap box.....jus came down ta feed the dogs & check the pewter....& now it's back 2 bed ta watch the Sox beat up on my A's :(.......
Cheers!!
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
Looks like it was the aus trade balance & retail sales #'s that I got whip sawed by...ystrdy there were 4 sets of #'s that came out that were all rated as "high importance" along w/a few other #'s that came out down under that were rated moderate to low.....but no rate change...so there ya have it. Rookie mistake #1....opening up a position based purely on t/a.....shoulda looked at the economic calander.....that woulda told me why the aus was trading down in advance of these #'s.
http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar
& that's why ya trade demo for awhile....I still say however that it'll rebound some....only prob is...callin the bottom...lol Guess it's best to stay away til it decides to wanna base somewhere for awhile...maybe try & scalp a few shorts here for the heck of it ta see if I can ride w/this current down trend a bit.
no worries....it's all demo....but agreed....I have a hard enuff time tradin when I feel 100%...lol
She took the swab to my throat & I waited approx 10 mins for the results right there in the office.
I am less than 24 hrs into the meds....but have taken 3 pills now since approx 1p ystrdy. I'm supposed ta take 1 two times a day...so I took my 1st one right there at the pharmacy around 1p....the 2nd one last night around 7p & the 3rd this AM 2 hrs ago.....so 3 in less than 24 hrs...so I agree....by now one would think they'd be makin a diff....if not feelin on the mend by tomorrow perhaps I should ask for a stronger antibiotic? These damn things just aint doin the job like they used to...gettin more & more immune to these strains.
& Thx for the correction there Zav.....as u can tell, I aint no Doc....& don't even profess ta play 1 on the internet ;)~
Thx again for all the concern....time ta go rest...again....the dog is lookin at me like...sheeesh...what's up w/you ya lazy ass human....goin back upstairs ta bed again....lol I think he's PO'd cuz he feels it's his job ta look after me....so he's relegated to the bed w/me....lol I leave the door open for him tho in case he wants to go downstairs but her chooses to be up there w/me....wadda loyal pooch.
OK....loggin off for a few here.....maybe check back by mrkt close.
Cheers!!!
Not really...in fact more symptomatic...thx for askin though.
I find it funny that ystrdy whe the doc asked me about symptoms...do you have this, or that?, etc....for the most part my answers were no.....all I had was just a bad sore throat....but now after 2 doses of antibiotics it seems as if the meds are now given me many of the symptoms I didn't have b4....WTF!! I guess the Doc was in her own nice lil way maybe tellin me what ta expect over the next few days....lol
I guess the Rx is speedin this virus up now & kicken it's ass...it's the gotta get worse b4 better routine eh.
Last night really sucked tho.....phlemy, coughy & achy...no fever tho thankfully....& here I thought I'd be feelin better real soon w/the meds....NOT!!
OK..enuff about my ills.....w/re to 4x....man alive did I miss that aus/us call....thought the long I took the other day (or was it ysrtdy?...brain's fuzzier than normal)..the no brainer I think I called it....famous last words....lol @ 9414...well that sure dint work out....down 90+....OUCH!!!
Thinken about addin another long here....yes, I'm glutent for more punishment. Lookin at that chart tho...as much as this pair has been in long term bull mode for quite sometime now....things just dont fall right oudda the sky like this w/out some eventual rebound. It has broken the bottom trend line (channel) on the daily. Ya gotta be thinken it's due to rebound a lil just based purely on t/a. Guess I should go have a looksie at what happend down under ta create all this downward pressure....did they lower rates? Sure smells like it..actually smells like the lowering of rates along w/some other dreadful #'s that were reported. Well here's one of the times when t/a alone aint gonna cut it.
& being that it's a Fri....I should prolly stay away from opening up any new positions anyhow....sure is temptin tho ta take a few more long lots down here....I've done fairly well riden this one long for quite sometime now....hard to change directions at the drop of dime like that.
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
here Nettles & all....use this correlation chart Ataglance (man I'm pumpin him a lot lately...I swear, I'm NOT him...lol) has put together...very good for those who are thinken about openin up multiple positions & or maybe wanna think about hedgin as well...or "steppin on it" as I like ta say...doublin down w/another pair that moves in correlation.
http://fxlabs.oanda.com/cgi/fxlabs.pl?id=4
& before you all tell me this is an Oanda link & not a Ataglance link....you're kindas right....it's just that Ataglance has included this awesome link on his site....
www.theforexclub.us
On the left side of the home page you'll find TONZ of great 4x links.....& this above is under the header "FX Correlations" approx 3/4 of the way down the left side of his home page.....along w/several other decent lil tidbit links.
Ya know he's put together a great site when you see some new faces ask questions (which is AWESOME...good stuff indeed) & so far....most if not ALL of these ?'s can be answered by pokin around his site. One of the best 4x resources I've yet to run across...& it's FREE!! tho there is a donation link there which would be a nice lil added thank you.
GL!!
PS
W/re to correlations in genl....be sure to always keep a close eye on gold....that'll usually give ya a lil heads up as to where things will be trending....like gold up/dollar down....but be careful about that one....that's been a tricky one over he last yr or so....not quite the same tendencies as we've seen thru the yrs....mostly b/c of all the volitility w/both the greenback & gold imo.
Well that's one reason whu this place isn't hoppin more....live & demo are 2 VERY different things....u gotta few more challenges w/live accts....otherwise you're right....4x would be way more popular than it is....although it has been gaining respectible strength over the recent past & continues to do so as the braoder indeces falter.
Folks wanna find a better place to make $$$ in a down mrkt enviornment & 4x is a very good alternative.
A poster or 2 from here has started another place....one reason wht they may not be around these parts too much now a days.....this is JRB's new joint...Ataglance was assisting as well for a spell....& I'm Raiderdad over there......still gettin goin tho....not sure how much participation there's been as of late?
& after jus lookin in now...seems JRB's pulled it down....under "Heavy Construction" lol
http://thefxhub.com/forum.php
bookmark it tho cuz it does have lotza great tools all bundled into 1 place....as well as a posting lounge w/several related topics of course.
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
long Aus/US @ 9414....
lookin for 90-100....or thereabouts....on the 15 min chart usin the Fib level @ 9507...a conservative fib level..as I always set'em....give myself some wiggle room for error.
Seems like a no brainer...famous last words...lol
OK....up to bed for a lil quick Fast $$ nap b4 headin cross the bay.....back later on tonight....if the antibiotics dont do me in by then :0
Cheers!!
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
& that was my big hit overnight...
1.5584 to 1.5690....rare for me that I nail a 100+ pip'er.
Went to the Dr right after my 140 mile r/t rescue transport this AM....yup..it's strep....wanted to be sure b4 we leave on Mon in case it was he'd put me on an antibiotic.....so I should now be good to go for Mon...he put me on Amoxicilan (or whatever it's called)......that sure was a close 1...almost didn't go but I was feelin so bad on my way home this AM from the transport that I called & made an appt b4 comin home.
One more transport to go this afternoon...only 90 miles r/t this time...but it's gonna be in the heart of the bay area commute...across the bay & then back over again to the Foster's b4 coming home for some more rest.
Guess I'll close out the books for July now.....& after that Euro/us long last night...actually closed out at 5a today....I made my double on the month....sitten at 100,771...tho I do have 2 long aus/us that are a combined 8K under water....one 24 pips down & the other 103....& out of all my positions I was most confident w/this one....go fig'ya...lol
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
Warren Buffet
Was wonderin what happened there....4 a min I was the ONLY one who seemed ta comprehend that one on all fronts....indeed, when that occurs, we r in deep do-do :0
what goes up must come down & what goes down must go up....eventually....especially w/re ta 4x.
How ya been Daiello?
Cheers!