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Doc I truly am happy especially for you, you deserve all the success you're now getting here. I hope you recouped your losses and then some!
All the best!
Sure as hell looks like it. 45 point drop in SPY$. Tempted to allow myself to be seduced!
I do not mean to bash, I still own several shares here.. but I'm still surprised there's still a bid here.
Although March 30 soon, can we expect revs in these upcoming fins?
Not on this screen though. Nit with this selling
Anybody have a explanation?
$hit the bed....lol!!!
Anybody surprised?
Lol!! Never heard that before in the pinkies!!
Not to be an ass or anything, but IR saying same are a dime a dozen on here!
JusdePomme, remember FON*? IR said same...
HCT*, VPO*... I could name so many!!!!
(Mods, any deletion of this post will be contested, the above tickers were used as examples, not for promotional purposes)
Dude! Good morning! My days of posting here are over, at least for a little while. I'm out of NatGas, metals unpredictable as well these days so I'm in cash for that part of my account.
Also, this board used to be about sharing ideas and respect. The tone has become agressive and "I'm right he's wrong" is becoming more and more prevalent. That"s the reason I stopped posting on the NUGT board as well. No fun and not interested in playing that game.
Best of luck to all here!!
No idea. I'm out. Not watching. Plenty if cash on hand to buy eventually, but not NG. Not now. It's gonna go up/down mildly til mid April.... might wanna go long then. Til then it's just gambling...
But today i'm playing with my Hitachi pneumatic hammer building crap. Hope I don't cut a finger!
But yeah....$2.70
This dilution doesn't look like minor notes. Had bids in til I saw the dilutive stacking....
Will revisit once this hits 12...
Lol!!! My!!! Next day HH $2.70 atm.
CC, let's revisit at the end of week!
All the best, guys!
Last nights 4 ICBM's from North Korea may have screwed things... no idea at this point. Just got up, haven't had my coffee so can't say for now. I still think bias for Gold and Silver is up, but if I jump in I'll be playing for quick gains, not long term.... for now.
Logically, they'll want USD down to incourage exports and boost US economy, so metals up. Yellin raising rates March 15 won't be to stabilize the economy, she'll raise rates to give have a few bullets if things go south.
You want guidance for metals, look at USDJPY. USDJPY down, metals up, it's that simple.
Made 1$ (5.86 - 6.90) Friday on JNUG. In cash now.... I'll have my morning Joe and will see later what I'll be doing.
Happy trades!!
Seems you were right, weather is the culprit!!! Double whammy, 155 HDD AND (!!) 3 CDD for the latest March 16 European weather ensemble. Still 19% below normal at 82% season over with.... buy just wow, considering Feb was at about 450 HDD's
And I'll be looking at IB. .20% currency commission is interesting.
Canada. I have USD for long term plays but use CDN for shorter term trades. I hesitate to convert CDN to US as I expect USD to drop considerably as to CDN within the coming months. Parity USD CDN would make me lose 35 ish% of my value....
last post for me....I think..
Happy trades!
100% with you. And no contango!!! SWN preferreds (SWNC) is at 18% divy at Friday's price ($19.30 or so).
Herbster! UGAZ is a good play. But not for me, not now. On every trade I pay 1.5% currency echange commissionin and 1.5% out. But many will make a good coin playing U..... I prefer NH equities at this point.
Nope. Too much contango. Wouldn't be surprised to see 15-20% decay
That's nuts as far as I'm concerned. $2.62? That's a couple of pennies above spot!!!! Not in this tight market, not this time of year....
What's his fair value?
Maybe. TBH though I haven't looked at the weather ensembles. I think weather at this point has less importance than it did in December. News of high HDD's at this point will have greater impact than high CDD's.....
Yeah but there's much much more to it than that. Nuclear elect maintenance season's gonna take up to 6 bcf/d out of the market. Cheniere train 3 about to go live... amongst many other things.
Told my wife..I needed to get out of NG Friday...glad I did!
$3.20 short term
If that works for you, great! But I never bought that. Too many variables. I know others who believe that as well and are quite successful traders too!
The chart you're looking at is skewed by the "Trump Rally". Once we realize that Trump will not be able reduce taxes nor spend what he said he would on infra we'll get a clearer picture. Dollar will drop to 96 or so and gold will break 1340.
But you're not answerring my question. Technicals aside, you believe gold fundamentals are bearish? Say....until May?
These days everything is to be held short term, I think. Markets are a mess.
But, charts aside, you really think the fundamentals for gold are bearish? Yellin said she'd raise rates March 15 and gold turned north, closing green.....
I'm more bullish metals in the medium/long term, especially gold and silver. JNUG's nicer than NUGT for it's silver content. Looking forward to tonight's open though, gonna be telling.
NG on the other hand will be moderately bullish for a month or two me thinks. Not bullish enough to be long UGAZ but enough for NG equities into summer.
But these markets are f'd up. NG is following it's seasonal map but all the rest could come down with just one little spark.like Greece. Or Marine Lepen. Or 20t debt. Or debt cealing. Or interest hike.......
I thought same until I saw T-trades showing up. Not bashing, but i've been long for a while now. Not anymore. These t-trades are signs of possible dilution / note conversion. This has now become a trade, until further notice...
yup. Agree 100%. Add the fact that Nuclear electr generation starts its's maintenance season tomorrow, 36 GW of power to be supressed between March and May (9 GW last year), should add about 6 Bcf/d of demand at it's peak....
Time to be long NatGas
I'm out. Sold this morning, bought JNUG then sold again end of day. Thinking NG gaps up 2.88 ish Sunday night. Then it's up til June.
All the best to all here!
Spot 2.49!!
Same. selling D at 6.25 for a double. Won't be watching though....off to catch a 9:30 flight for another vacation.... but in a country where there's Inet this time.
Later dudes!
Pretty freaky price action, though. Imports up, exports down, Chenière shipping down slightly, inventory build in Feb, very warm weather models.... yet NG looks like it wants to head north....
I was able to transact just now. Canadian account.
My, i'm still holding, still waiting for an exit. Waiting for pit close to set a price. $2.72 -2.75?
Skier, buying U or D at this point is gambling although if I had to buy I'd choose U
7bcf build incredible!!!
Ng isn't going to revisit March lows, just a matter of time before it jumps above $3 again, bringing D down to reverse split levels and U wayyyyy up for a double, I think. June should be a good time to sell U, couple of weeks max a good time to buy.... but watch contango, should be increasing with time.
I forget exactly, but train 3 was to have somewheres around .6 BCF/d capacity. 5 days of train 3 working could fill up those 300 ships considering each ship has a capacity of between 7mcf and 10 mcf each. The Q-max is at 9.4 mcf and is one of the biggests out there.
But with supply/demand being so tight, every little bit counts. I still think $4-$5 NG this summer if it gets as hot as the modela show. Cheniere us a huge part of thia tightness.
Yes I will if I get the info. Thank you!
Although kids still have 2 days off left...wife now discussing maybe another (shorter) weekend trip.....
Lol!!! Sorry about that! Did lots of catching up in very little time! Although Google is full of recent articles pointing in the same direction. Sabine Pass train 3 will be live very soon, ahead of schedule.
Thanks Dude!! Plus or minus 5 BCF to/from inventory......can't see it being anything but bearish. I'm calculating a 5bcf injection into inventory but anything under 30bcf draw is bearish. Today's report might already be priced in though. Record draw (smallest) is 24bcf, today is sure to break records, but no idea at this point how the market'll react. Sabine train 3 to start loading this Friday? http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/1179975/cheniere-set-to-start-up-sabine-pass-train-3
Things seem to have changed since last week. From what I've seen thus far I'm more bullish than I was last week and will be looking to unload D. Won't go back into U yet, there's wayyyy to much opportunity in equities and gold right now. Main reasons-nuclear maintenance and seasonality. Last EIA report showed supply down to 70 BCF/d from 74 last year same date. Yet nuclear shutdown expected to be 36GW was 9 GW last year. 9GW = 1.6 BCF/d. If we do the math 6.4 BCf/d will be required to compensate nuke mainentance season (March - May). Obviously, coal and wind and solar will take parts of these GW's but if we keep in mind the Mexican exports up since last year, Cheniere and all, we also have about 6 BCF/d more leaving the country than last year. Gonna be watching closely today's report but this past week's price action is quite surprising. Had we not had that contango gap down to $2.68 we'd probably be around $3.07 April now
At the airport about to fly back home, gonna be back online tomorrow morning (if all goes as planned). Can't wait to have decent internet.
All I can say so far is WOW!!!!
See y'all tomorrow!
Contango. This drop is all about contango. Spot Friday was 2.46, March contract closed at 2.62 and April closed at 2.80. March contract is now gone, April will move towards spot until is gets to March price. They were willing to pay 2.62 for delivery in 30 days Friday. Why would they be willing to pay 2.80 today? Contango. So....DGAZ up 12% and UGAZ down 12%.
I'm expecting NG $2.62 soon.
Gonna be back to normal internet in a couple of days. Will be posting again then.
Happy trades!